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XRP Could be Facing a 18% Breakdown, Hidden Bear Flag Pattern Shows

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XRP price bounced roughly 3% from its March 27 low of $1.31, reclaiming the $1.35 area. However, the move may be building a bear flag rather than the start of a sustained recovery, and the broader market conditions are not helping.

Since peaking at $1.60 on March 17, XRP has already corrected 18%. The intraday bounce looks constructive on the surface, but the chart, derivatives, and on-chain data all point in the same direction.

Bear Flag Forms as Hidden Bearish Divergence Builds

The 12-hour chart shows XRP trading inside a bear flag pattern. The pole formed during the 18% decline from $1.60 to $1.31 between March 17 and March 27. The current 3% bounce is shaping the flag portion, a rising channel that typically resolves with another leg down matching the pole’s size.

If the lower trendline of the flag breaks, a similar 18% measured move could be triggered from the breakdown point. That would take the XRP price toward the $1.08 zone (highlighted later in the price section).

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The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum oscillator, adds another layer of concern. Between February 6 and March 28, on the 12-hour chart, the price is forming a lower high while the RSI is forming a higher high.

That is a hidden bearish divergence, which typically points to a continuation of the existing downtrend rather than a reversal.

RSI Hidden Bearish Divergence
RSI Hidden Bearish Divergence: TradingView

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The divergence has not yet been confirmed. Confirmation requires the next 12-hour candle to close below $1.35. If instead the price clears $1.35 and sustains above it, the structure delays.

Full invalidation sits above $1.60, the pole’s peak. If the broader market continues to weaken, this setup could confirm quickly.

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However, even without the RSI, the derivatives and spot data suggest the bounce is standing on thin ground.

Open Interest Rises, but Hodlers Are Reducing Positions

Since the bounce began, XRP open interest has risen from $737.72 million to $759.21 million, a 2.9% increase. At the same time, the funding rate has become less negative, moving from -0.011% to -0.003%. That combination means more long positions are being opened into the bounce.

XRP Open Interest and Funding Rate
XRP Open Interest and Funding Rate: Santiment

Rising open interest during a bounce inside a bear flag is typically a warning rather than a bullish confirmation. It means some leveraged traders are betting on bounce continuation, but if the pattern breaks down, those new longs become liquidation fuel.

The spot market offers no counterbalance. The Hodler net position change, a Glassnode metric tracking accumulation by longer-term wallets (155 days or more), held steady between March 19 and March 25 at approximately 238 million XRP.

Since March 25, that balance has dropped to 229.78 million XRP, a reduction of roughly 8.25 million tokens or 3.47%.

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XRP Hodler Net Position Change
XRP Hodler Net Position Change: Glassnode

Conviction holders are quietly reducing exposure right before the XRP price bounces. When derivatives lean long, and spot holders lean out, the setup favors the bears.

If the RSI-led hidden bearish divergence confirms and the price corrects, the spot support needed to absorb the selling simply is not there. It remains to be seen whether spot buyers also come in, as the recent longs did. If that happens, some spot support can help stem the possible drop.

XRP Price Forecast and the $1.35 Test

The XRP price needs a clean 12-hour close above $1.35 to delay the bearish setup. Above that, $1.37 and $1.40 become the next resistance levels. However, based on the bear flag structure and the divergence forming, any move under $1.35 that holds would begin the confirmation process.

If the flag breaks and the $1.31-$1.32 neckline zone gives way, the measured move of roughly 18% activates from the breakdown point. That targets the $1.08 zone, which would then represent the lowest level for XRP since early February 2026.

On the upside, only a move above $1.60 would fully invalidate the bearish structure and end the lower-high sequence that has defined XRP’s 2026 trading playbook.

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XRP Price Analysis
XRP Price Analysis: TradingView

For now, the $1.35 reclaim separates a delayed bearish setup from an 18% breakdown toward $1.08.

The post XRP Could be Facing a 18% Breakdown, Hidden Bear Flag Pattern Shows appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Who Owns the Most Bitcoin in 2026? Arkham Data Reveals Top Holders

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR:

  • Satoshi Nakamoto holds 1.096 million BTC worth $77B, making him the largest Bitcoin holder globally.
  • Coinbase controls 5% of Bitcoin’s total supply, leading all exchanges with 982,000 BTC in holdings.
  • The U.S. Government holds 328,000 BTC seized from Bitfinex, Silk Road, and the LuBian Hacker address.
  • Strategy holds 738,000 BTC total, making it the largest public company Bitcoin holder as of 2026. 

Bitcoin ownership remains concentrated among a select group of entities as of 2026. On-chain data from Arkham Intelligence reveals that Satoshi Nakamoto holds the largest known share.

Exchanges, ETF issuers, and governments follow closely behind. Public companies like Strategy have also accumulated substantial reserves over the past few years.

The data provides a clear picture of where the world’s most valuable digital asset resides today, and who holds the most of it.

Satoshi Nakamoto Leads All Bitcoin Holders Worldwide

Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, remains the single largest known holder. Arkham’s research attributes 1.096 million BTC to Satoshi, worth approximately $77 billion. This figure rests on a known mining pattern called the Patoshi Pattern.

Arkham’s data links these holdings to around 22,000 blocks that Satoshi mined in the network’s early days. The identified addresses include the only known wallets from which Satoshi ever spent BTC. No movement has been recorded from most of these wallets in years.

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Among individual wallet addresses, a Binance cold wallet holds the most BTC. That single address contains nearly 250,000 BTC, worth around $17 billion. It ranks as the largest single-address Bitcoin wallet currently on record.

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Exchanges and ETF Issuers Command Billions in Holdings

Coinbase is the largest exchange entity by BTC holdings, controlling around 982,000 BTC. That figure represents roughly 5% of Bitcoin’s total circulating supply. Binance follows with approximately 655,000 BTC, equal to 3.3% of supply.

BlackRock leads all ETF issuers with 775,000 BTC held under its spot Bitcoin ETF. Fidelity Custody holds 460,000 BTC, while Grayscale, Bitwise, and ARK Invest also maintain on-chain positions. Arkham first identified these ETF holdings on-chain after the products launched in the U.S. in January 2024.

Grayscale’s Bitcoin holdings are spread across more than 1,750 separate addresses. Each address holds no more than 1,000 BTC. All assets are custodied through Coinbase.

Governments Hold Bitcoin Largely Through Criminal Asset Seizures

The United States Government holds 328,000 BTC, making it the top government holder by a wide margin. These holdings come from seizures tied to the Bitfinex hack, Silk Road, and the LuBian Hacker address. The FBI manages these wallets on behalf of the federal government.

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The United Kingdom holds 61,245 BTC, seized from Jian Wen and Zhimin Qian in 2018. El Salvador holds 7,500 BTC, accumulated through daily purchases and a legal tender policy. Bhutan holds 5,400 BTC, mined through its sovereign wealth fund using hydroelectric power.

Unlike seizure-based holdings, El Salvador and Bhutan acquired Bitcoin through active national strategies. El Salvador adopted it as legal tender and bought 1 BTC daily under President Bukele’s directive. Bhutan partnered with Bitdeer to expand mining operations backed by cheap hydroelectric energy.

Public and Private Companies Continue Accumulating BTC Reserves

Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, holds more Bitcoin than any other public company. Its total holdings stand at 738,000 BTC, though on-chain data confirms 443,000 BTC directly. The company has been buying consistently since August 2020.

MARA, a publicly traded mining company, reports a treasury stockpile of 53,200 BTC. Metaplanet, listed in Tokyo, holds 35,100 BTC as a hedge against yen depreciation. Both companies closely mirror Strategy’s long-term accumulation approach.

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Among private companies, Tether holds 96,300 BTC verified on-chain. SpaceX holds 8,300 BTC, down from a peak of 28,000 BTC in 2021. Block.one claims 164,000 BTC, though those holdings remain unverified through on-chain data.

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Hyperliquid Hits Net Deflation as HyperCore Buybacks Exceed Daily Staking Rewards

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR:

  • HyperCore repurchased 34,495.71 HYPE at $38.51 on March 27, exceeding daily staking distributions.
  • A net 7,711 HYPE were permanently removed from circulation, projecting to 2.77M tokens yearly.
  • Unlike Solana’s 25.19M annual inflation, Hyperliquid is actively reducing its total token supply.
  • Higher HIP-3 adoption drives more revenue, fueling larger buybacks and compounding deflation pressure.

Hyperliquid recorded net deflation on March 27, 2026, as HyperCore repurchased more HYPE tokens than it distributed.

The buyback totaled 34,495.71 HYPE at an average price of $38.51. Against 26,784 HYPE paid out to stakers and validators, the net removal stood at 7,711 tokens.

This marks a notable shift in how the protocol manages its circulating supply.

Buyback Activity Drives Daily Supply Reduction

On March 27, HyperCore’s repurchase program pulled 34,495.71 HYPE from circulation. The distribution of 26,784 HYPE went to stakers and 24 active validators on the same day. After accounting for both figures, 7,711 HYPE were permanently removed from supply.

At this pace, the monthly net reduction reaches approximately 231,330 HYPE. Annually, that projects to nearly 2,775,960 HYPE taken out of circulation. These numbers reflect a consistent deflationary trend rather than a one-time event.

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According to Hyperliquid Hub, the buyback mechanism also responds to price movement. When HYPE trades higher, fewer tokens are repurchased per dollar spent. When prices fall, the protocol buys back more aggressively, which naturally manages supply pressure.

Protocol Revenue Feeds a Self-Reinforcing Cycle

The deflation model ties directly to trading activity on the network. More adoption of HIP-3 leads to higher trading volumes across the platform. That activity generates greater protocol revenue, which then funds larger buyback operations.

As Hyperliquid Hub noted, this creates a flywheel: “More HIP-3 adoption → higher trading activity → more protocol revenue → larger buybacks.”

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Each component reinforces the next without requiring external intervention. The system is built to scale its deflationary pressure alongside usage.

For context, Solana issues roughly 25.19 million SOL annually through its staking and validator reward structure. Hyperliquid, by contrast, is removing more tokens than it issues on a daily basis. The two networks represent opposite ends of the supply management spectrum.

The price-sensitive nature of the buyback adds another layer of stability to the model. It functions as a built-in counter to extreme market swings in either direction. Over time, this structure may reduce volatility tied to supply-side selling pressure.

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Kalshi Hit With Washington State Lawsuit

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Kalshi Hit With Washington State Lawsuit

Kalshi is facing another state-level lawsuit after the state of Washington on Friday filed allegations that the prediction market operator violated state gambling laws with its products.

The Washington Attorney General’s complaint cites the Pacific Northwest state’s existing ban on online gambling and otherwise strict oversight of the gaming market, in claiming Kalshi violated the Washington Consumer Protection Act, Gambling Act, and Recovery of Money Lost at Gambling Act.

“Kalshi’s website and app show consumers a range of events that they can bet on and the odds for those various events, which dictate how much the bettor will be paid out if the event occurs,” an announcement from Attorney General Nick Brown said. “This is exactly how sportsbooks and other gambling operations function. Kalshi advertises that they allow consumers to ‘bet on anything’ by simply calling their service a ‘prediction market’ rather than ‘gambling.’”

The definition of gambling under Washington law is “staking or risking something of value upon the outcome of a contest of chance or a future contingent event,” and Kalshi’s activities fall squarely within that definition, the AG’s announcement said. “Each Kalshi bet risks money, relies in part on chance, and promises a payout to winners.”

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Kalshi immediately sought to move the case to federal court, saying in its filing that the issues raised by the Washington suit are already being  litigated in other federal courts and that there had been “no warning or dialogue” from Washington state  prior to the lawsuit.

Related: SEC interpretation on crypto laws ‘a beginning, not an end,‘ says Atkins

Cover page of State of Washington v. KalshiEx, Source: King County Superior Court

State AGs and gaming regulators mount legal fights across the country

A Nevada judge earlier this month temporarily blocked Kalshi from operating in the state, finding that state authorities are reasonably likely to prevail in a legal fight over whether the company’s event contracts violate Nevada gambling laws.

Carson City District Court Judge Jason Woodbury issued a temporary restraining order on Friday, siding with a Nevada Gaming Control Board motion to block Kalshi from operating in the state for 14 days.

Kalshi had argued that its contracts are under the exclusive jurisdiction of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, an agency that has backed prediction markets that are fighting in multiple state courts over accusations of offering illegal gambling.

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Days earlier, Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes announced charges against the companies behind Kalshi, alleging that the company operated an “illegal gambling business in Arizona without a license” and offered illegal election wagering.

While Kalshi faces several similar cases filed by gaming authorities in other US states over the platform allegedly offering sports gambling to residents without a license, Arizona was one of the first to file criminal charges.

The state-level cases come as prediction markets are under scrutiny by lawmakers for offering bets on US military actions, citing concerns about insider information in the government.

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