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Crypto needs a reset before the next bull run

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Finality Macro cross-asset outloook

Since Bitcoin’s all-time high of $127,000 in October 2025, the first quarter of 2026 has gotten off to a shaky start, with Bitcoin crashing to a $60,000 floor in under five months. While this whiplash may be painful, it looks worse than it really is: the market is actually doing exactly what it needs to do to build a stronger cycle ahead.

Crypto tends to bear the brunt of the selloff when macro conditions, geopolitical tensions and traditional markets turn south. Several converging factors are currently driving immense pressure on crypto markets: elevated counterparty risk, global liquidity tightening, weak technical trends, fading ETF inflows and broader stress across credit and banking markets.

But periods like this are not anomalies in digital asset markets. They are part of the larger cycle – and a sign of what’s to come for those willing to see it.

Liquidity is the dominant driver

For all the narratives around adoption, innovation and new use cases, crypto still trades primarily on global liquidity conditions. When liquidity expands, digital assets tend to rally; when it contracts, they tend to fall, often sharply.

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Several forces are currently pulling liquidity out of the system. The Federal Reserve continues to run down its balance sheet, reducing the amount of capital circulating through financial markets. Seasonal tax payments are draining liquidity from the Treasury system.

A wave of technology IPOs and equity issuance is absorbing capital that might otherwise flow into risk assets. Meanwhile, a strong U.S. dollar and tighter financial conditions globally are putting additional pressure on speculative markets.

Because crypto trades on liquidity, price moves can look disconnected from fundamentals. But those moves are often the mechanism through which markets reset and prepare for the next expansion phase.

The reset cycle map

Market cycles rarely move in a straight line, and this one is unlikely to be any different. But if the current pattern holds, 2026 could unfold as a multi-step reset rather than a clean rebound. A quarterly breakdown lays this path out clearly, The early part of the year is characterized by retesting lows and broad selling pressure as leverage and speculative positioning continue to unwind. The middle of the year may bring a temporary recovery as markets stabilize and opportunistic buyers begin stepping in. It’s a multi-step reset cycle.

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Volatility is likely to persist. Another correction later in the year would not be unusual as macro conditions continue to shift and investors reassess risk. Only after that process plays out does the market typically enter a more durable rally phase.

But this type of structure has appeared repeatedly across previous crypto cycles. And while the timing is never identical, the rhythm is familiar.

Finality Macro cross-asset outloook

Why the long-term cycle remains intact

Short-term turbulence does not necessarily mean the broader cycle is broken. Indeed, there are several reasons the long-term trend for bitcoin and the digital asset ecosystem remains intact.

First, structural demand has expanded meaningfully compared with prior cycles. Institutional participation is deeper, infrastructure is stronger, and access through regulated investment vehicles has improved market reach.

Second, macro conditions are likely to evolve. Liquidity tightening rarely lasts forever. If inflation continues to moderate, the Federal Reserve could shift toward rate cuts later in the year. Historically, monetary easing has provided a powerful tailwind for risk assets.

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Third, broader political and financial dynamics may also support markets. Election cycles tend to coincide with more accommodating economic policy, while stabilization in credit markets could reduce systemic risk across the financial system.

FLO's Multi-Cycle Bitcoin Outlook

Taken together, these factors suggest the long-term trajectory for digital assets remains constructive even if the path to get there remains volatile. Bitcoin could ultimately recover toward the $100,000 range and potentially move higher by the end of 2026 if liquidity conditions improve. Downside scenarios remain possible, particularly if macro stress intensifies, but those drawdowns have historically yielded longer-term uptrends.

FLO's 2026 Bitcoin Outlook

Positioning through the volatility

For investors, the real challenge is predicting the markets by positioning correctly across different phases of a reset cycle.

The early phase, when liquidity tightens and markets search for a bottom, typically rewards caution. That may mean running underweight crypto exposure in the early part of the year while volatility remains elevated and macro pressures persist.

But the opportunity usually emerges before the broader market recognizes it. As the year progresses and conditions begin to stabilize, investors may gradually increase exposure. By the cycle’s later stages, particularly if liquidity begins to ease, allocations may shift more aggressively, with portfolios moving overweight digital assets into a potential fourth-quarter rally.

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Between those phases, market dislocations can prove fertile ground for selective investments. Distressed assets, special situations, and mispriced securities across digital assets, blockchain equities and digital corporate credit often appear during mid-cycle stress. These environments favor active strategies that can move across asset classes rather than passive exposure to a single market segment.

The key is timing exposure to liquidity conditions rather than chasing momentum after markets have already turned. Stay defensive now, get aggressive later.

A transition year, but not a record year

If this framework holds, 2026 won’t be remembered as either a classic bull year or a prolonged bear market, but as a transition year.

Markets often shake out weak hands first, forcing excess leverage and speculative positioning out of the system. That process can be uncomfortable in real time, but it plays an important role in preparing markets for the next expansion. Volatility is not just noise in financial markets – and often, it’s the very mechanism through which opportunity is created.

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It’s also a year for resetting. Markets will likely stay volatile in the near term as liquidity tightens, but the investors who win will be the ones positioning before the turn, not chasing it after.

Crypto markets have never moved in straight lines. The same forces that create painful corrections often lay the groundwork for powerful recoveries. The reset underway today may ultimately be what allows the next cycle to begin.

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IMF Cuts 2026 Global Growth Forecast by 0.2 Points as Middle East War Hits Momentum

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Iran’s Best War Tactic is Now a Liability at the Negotiating Table

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its global growth forecast for 2026 to 3.1% in its April update. This marks a 0.2 percentage point downgrade from its January estimate.

The Fund noted that the latest downgrade largely reflects economic disruptions stemming from the ongoing Middle East conflict. It added that in its absence, the outlook would have instead been revised upward by 0.1 percentage point to 3.4%. 

IMF Cuts Growth, Lifts Inflation Forecast in 2026

The report added that the global growth forecast for 2027 remains unchanged from the January 2026 World Economic Outlook update.

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Meanwhile, global headline inflation is expected to edge higher in 2026 before resuming its downward trajectory in 2027. It is currently projected at 4.4% this year, before easing to 3.7% in 2027.

The economic impact remains uneven across regions. Emerging markets saw their 2026 growth outlook downgraded by 0.3 percentage points. Yet, projections for advanced economies were largely unchanged.

“Crucially, there is a high degree of cross-country dispersion in the reference forecast. While the growth and inflation revisions seem relatively modest at the global level, the toll on the conflict region and more vulnerable economies elsewhere—in particular, commodity-importing emerging market and developing economies with preexisting fragilities—is much more pronounced,” the report read.

The IMF also outlined additional downside risks. In a scenario where energy prices rise more sharply and persistently, global growth could slow to 2.5% in 2026.

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At the same time, inflation may climb to 5.4%. A more severe disruption, particularly involving damage to energy infrastructure in the conflict region, would deepen the impact, dragging global growth to around 2% and pushing inflation above 6% by 2027. Emerging and developing economies would be disproportionately affected again, with nearly twice the impact as advanced economies.

The IMF said its latest World Economic Outlook uses a “reference forecast” rather than a traditional baseline. This reflects the difficulty of forming stable assumptions amid ongoing uncertainty.

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The post IMF Cuts 2026 Global Growth Forecast by 0.2 Points as Middle East War Hits Momentum appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Bitcoin, ether, solana slide, oil jumps on renewed U.S.-Iran war risks

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'Murban crude oil' surges past $100, posing risk to bitcoin and risk assets

Bitcoin is absorbing the return of Middle East risk better than oil or equities.

Bitcoin traded at $74,335 on Monday morning, down 1.6% over 24 hours but still up 4.8% on the week after the U.S. Navy seized an Iranian ship over the weekend and Tehran reimposed controls on the Strait of Hormuz.

Ether slipped 2.6% to $2,272, Solana fell 1.5% to $84, and BNB held flat at $618, with the broader top-10 showing red across the board but none of the moves breaching 3%.

Brent crude jumped 5.7% to $95.50 a barrel, European natural gas futures surged as much as 11%, S&P 500 futures fell 0.6% after Friday’s record close, and European equity futures indicated a 1.2% drop at the open. Gold fell 0.8% to $4,790, and the dollar edged up as traditional war-hedge demand returned.

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The weekend flare-up reversed a three-week unwind of war risk premium. Iran had declared the Strait “completely open” on Friday, prompting the S&P 500’s record close and a broad rally across emerging markets.

By Sunday morning, Trump was threatening to destroy every power plant and bridge in Iran if negotiations fail, and Tehran was signaling it may skip a second round of talks while the U.S. maintains its naval blockade.

This is the fourth major Iran-related risk event crypto has absorbed since the conflict began, and the pattern of shrinking sell-offs continues. Earlier escalations produced sharper drawdowns in bitcoin than this one, with each successive flare-up compressing the magnitude of the crypto reaction even as oil and equities continue to price each headline fresh.

The divergence suggests crypto has largely finished pricing the geopolitical tail risk that traditional markets are still reacting to, either because holders who were going to sell on Iran headlines have already sold, or because the spot ETF bid has become a more reliable floor than the futures-driven weekend gaps that defined earlier cycles.

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What traders will watch through the U.S. session is whether the 10-year Treasury yield holding near 4.27% and the dollar bid pull bitcoin lower through the risk-parity channel, or whether the equity correlation that dominated Q1 loosens on a day when the driver is explicitly geopolitical rather than macro-liquidity.

If bitcoin holds $74,000 through the European open and the Strait of Hormuz situation deteriorates further, the asset’s emerging reputation as a geopolitical shock absorber gains another data point. If the move extends below $73,000 on any incremental Iran headline, the shrinking-sell-off thesis breaks.

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Bitcoin slips from weekend highs as U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks strain

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Crypto Breaking News

Geopolitical tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz renewed a risk-off mood across cryptocurrency markets over the weekend, pressuring Bitcoin after a brief rally earlier in the week. On Friday, Bitcoin surged above $78,300 on Coinbase — its highest level since early February — but the rally faded as broader developments escalated. By weekend’s end, BTC had retreated to the $75,000–$76,000 zone, and late Sunday slid further to briefly dip below $74,000 in the wake of a U.S. military operation in the region.

The U.S. military announced that it opened fire on and later seized an Iranian cargo ship it said was attempting to breach a blockade of Iranian ports, a move that Tehran characterized as a violation of a two-week ceasefire between the two nations. The ceasefire, which had contributed to a calmer backdrop for energy markets and crypto trading alike, is due to expire this week, with investors watching how any renewal or breakdown could influence risk assets.

As tensions escalated, Tehran signaled retaliation and reportedly rejected a new round of peace talks slated for Monday in Islamabad, citing the U.S. blockade. The combined stance from Washington and Tehran underscored the fragility of a de-escalation path, complicating the outlook for both oil and crypto markets in the near term.

The broader market backdrop reflected the tension. U.S. stock futures opened Sunday night lower, with S&P 500 futures down about 0.8%, Nasdaq-100 futures off 0.6%, and Dow futures down roughly 0.9% (around 450 points). Oil markets reacted in kind, with crude futures rising more than 4.5% and trading above $95 a barrel as supply concerns and geopolitical risk re-entered the narrative.

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Crypto market sentiment also shifted. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index edged higher to 29 out of 100 on Monday, signaling a return to fear after a period of relative calm, though it remained in the cautious end of the spectrum rather than outright panic.

Bitcoin’s price trajectory over the weekend underscores how sensitive the crypto market remains to macro-driven risk factors in addition to its own supply-and-demand dynamics. The move back toward the mid-$70,000s after a weekend foray into the mid-$70k range highlighted the potential for renewed volatility should the conflict persist or escalate around Hormuz and related channels.

Cointelegraph has previously noted how macro tensions, including geopolitical flare-ups and oil price swings, have historically fed into bitcoin’s price action, offering a potential liquidity tilt during periods of global uncertainty. The current sequence — a Friday peak followed by a weekend retreat and a Sunday plunge tied to military actions — illustrates the ongoing intersection between energy markets, geopolitical risk, and crypto liquidity.

Looking ahead, the key question for traders is whether the ceasefire holds long enough for markets to re-price risk more calmly or if renewed escalation magnifies volatility. The end-date of the current two-week ceasefire looms large for both oil markets and digital assets, as any renewal terms or new conflict dynamics could reintroduce abrupt shifts in sentiment, liquidity, and hedge demand.

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Analysts will also be watching how the U.S. and Iranian sides approach diplomacy in the coming days. Tehran’s rejection of new talks and its vow of retaliation, alongside the U.S. military actions, suggests that any easing in risk appetite may depend heavily on clear signals of de-escalation rather than the mere absence of headlines.

In the near term, Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies may continue to trade within a risk-off framework so long as geopolitical headlines dominate. Traders will likely weigh potential upside toward prior resistance levels against the risk of renewed volatility if tensions intensify or the ceasefire breaks down again. As always, liquidity, macro cues, and the evolving diplomatic calculus will shape the path forward for BTC and the broader crypto market.

What to watch next: the timing and outcome of any renewed discussions around the ceasefire, ongoing responses from both Tehran and Washington, and the corresponding reactions in oil and traditional equity markets. The coming days could reveal whether this episode marks a temporary pause in risk appetite or a more sustained shift in how investors price geopolitical risk into digital assets.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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LayerZero blames Kelp’s setup for $290 million exploit, attributes it to North Korea’s Lazarus

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LayerZero blames Kelp's setup for $290 million exploit, attributes it to North Korea's Lazarus

LayerZero has placed responsibility for the $290 million Kelp DAO exploit on Kelp’s own security configuration, saying the liquid restaking protocol ran a single-verifier setup that LayerZero had previously warned against.

The attack used a novel vector targeting the infrastructure layer rather than any protocol code.

Attackers, whom LayerZero attributed with preliminary confidence to North Korea’s Lazarus Group and its TraderTraitor subunit, compromised two of the remote procedure call (RPC) nodes that LayerZero’s verifier relied on to confirm cross-chain transactions.

RPC nodes are the servers that let software read and write data on a blockchain, and LayerZero’s verifier used a mix of internal and external ones for redundancy.

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The attackers swapped the binary software running on two of those nodes with malicious versions designed to tell LayerZero’s verifier that a fraudulent transaction had occurred, while continuing to report accurate data to every other system querying those same nodes.

That selective lying was engineered to keep the attack invisible to LayerZero’s own monitoring infrastructure, which queries the same RPCs from different IP addresses.

Compromising two nodes was not enough. LayerZero’s verifier also queried uncompromised external RPC nodes, so the attackers ran a distributed denial-of-service attack on those to force failover to the poisoned ones.

Traffic logs LayerZero shared show the DDoS running between 10:20 a.m. and 11:40 a.m. Pacific Time on Saturday. Once the failover triggered, the compromised nodes told the verifier a valid cross-chain message had arrived, and Kelp’s bridge released 116,500 rsETH to the attackers. The malicious node software then self-destructed, wiping binaries and local logs.

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The attack only worked because Kelp ran a 1-of-1 verifier configuration, meaning LayerZero Labs was the sole entity verifying messages to and from the rsETH bridge.

LayerZero’s public integration checklist and direct communications to Kelp had recommended a multi-verifier setup with redundancy, where consensus across several independent verifiers would be required to confirm a message. Under that configuration, poisoning one verifier’s data feed would not have been enough to forge a valid message.

“KelpDAO chose to utilize a 1/1 DVN configuration,” LayerZero wrote, using the protocol’s term for decentralized verifier networks. “A properly hardened configuration would have required consensus across multiple independent DVNs, rendering this attack ineffective even in the event of any single DVN being compromised.”

LayerZero said it has confirmed zero contagion to any other application on the protocol. Every OFT-standard token and application running multi-verifier setups was unaffected.

The LayerZero Labs verifier is back online, and the company said it will no longer sign messages for any application running a 1-of-1 configuration, forcing a protocol-wide migration off single-verifier setups.

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The architectural distinction matters for how DeFi prices LayerZero risk going forward.

A protocol-level bug would have implied every OFT token on every chain was potentially at risk. However, a configuration failure by a single integrator, combined with a targeted infrastructure attack, implies the protocol worked as designed and that Kelp’s security choices, not LayerZero’s code, created the opening.

Kelp has not yet publicly responded to LayerZero’s framing or addressed why it operated a 1-of-1 verifier setup despite the explicit recommendations against it.

Lazarus Group has been linked to the Drift Protocol exploit on April 1 and now Kelp on April 18, meaning the same North Korean unit has drained more than $575 million from DeFi in 18 days through two structurally different attack vectors: social engineering governance signers at Drift and poisoning infrastructure RPCs at Kelp.

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The group is adapting its playbook faster than DeFi protocols are hardening their defenses.

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April 2026 Becomes Worst Month for Crypto Hacks Since February 2025

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$3 Million Reportedly Lost in CrossCurve Bridge Exploit

Crypto protocols lost over $606 million to hacks in just 18 days of April 2026. That makes it the single worst month for exploits since February 2025.

The surge comes from two attacks on KelpDAO and Drift Protocol. Together, they account for 95% of April’s losses and 75% of 2026’s total of $771.8 million.

April 2026 Crypto Hack Losses Dwarf Q1 Combined

According to data from DefiLlama, April’s $606.2 million total across 12 incidents, it has already eclipsed the first quarter’s $165.5 million haul. That makes the month roughly 3.7 times as large as January, February, and March combined.

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Month Number of Hacks Amount Lost
January 12 $100.1M
February 8 $24.2M
March 15 $41.3M
April (to April 18) 12 $606.2M
YTD Total 47 $771.8M

Every month since February 2025 has held under $240 million, per DefiLlama’s tracker. That earlier figure was skewed by the $1.4 billion Bybit breach, which drove February 2025’s total to $1.466 billion.

April 2026’s losses arrived without any headline exchange hack of that size. The pattern shows how quickly attackers pivoted to Decentralized Finance (DeFi) infrastructure.

BeInCrypto reported that KelpDAO lost over $290 million on April 18, now the year’s largest single hack. Drift Protocol sits just behind at $285 million.

The damage has stacked up in recent days. Incidents at Vercel, Hyperbridge, Grinex Exchange, and Rhea Finance have piled in 2026.

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“None of these accounts for the collateral damage seen across TVL, user trust, valuations, and the space’s morale. DeFi remains a niche market until risk can be properly priced; at this time, we’re far from it,” an anlyst wrote.

DeFi TVL Slides as Sentiment Cracks

DeFi total value locked (TVL) fell by more than 7% over the past 24 hours following the Kelp exploit. Aave alone dropped from $26.4 billion to near $17.9 billion.

“Every protocol is taking a hit now,” analyst Ted Pillows wrote.

Hack frequency is also climbing sharply. DeFi recorded 47 incidents in the first 4.5 months of 2026, compared with 28 over the same period in 2025. That works out to a roughly 68% year-over-year rise.

The reactions point to rising concern that DeFi’s risk pricing has not caught up with infrastructure-layer exploits. Dollar losses sit below 2025’s Bybit-skewed pace, yet incidents keep stacking. The next few weeks will show whether DeFi can tighten security before April’s trend defines the year.

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The $13 billion DeFi wipeout in two days, and it started with KelpDAO attack

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The $13 billion DeFi wipeout in two days, and it started with KelpDAO attack

The decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem is experiencing a sharp capital outflow following the weekend exploit of the KelpDAO protocol.

Leading DeFi lending platform Aave has lost $8.45 billion in deposits over the past 48 hours, driving a broader $13.21 billion decline in total value locked (TVL) across DeFi. TVL refers to the combined dollar value of crypto assets deposited across DeFi protocols, such as Aave, and is widely used as to measure liquidity and overall market activity.

Total value locked across DeFi fell from $99.497 billion to $86.286 billion, while Aave’s TVL declined by $8.45 billion to $17.947 billion over the same period, according to DefiLlama. Protocol-level data shows double-digit percentage drops across platforms, including Euler, Sentora, and Aave, with losses concentrated in lending, restaking, and yield strategies tied to the affected collateral.

The move stems from a $292 million exploit of Kelp’s bridge that allowed attackers to use stolen rsETH, a liquid re-staking token widely used in DeFi, as collateral to borrow funds on lending platforms.

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Because these stolen tokens lacked legitimate collateral backing, borrowing against them created potential shortfalls for lenders. It’s similar to conning a traditional bank by depositing fake fiat and taking out loans against it, ultimately leaving the lender with bad debt.

Protocols responded by freezing affected markets, while panicked users withdrew funds, leading to a broad decline in total value locked.

Token prices have moved less sharply than deposits. The AAVE token is down about 2.5% over 24 hours, while UNI and LINK are down less than 1% over the same period, according to CoinDesk market data.

Peter Chung, head of research at Presto Research, said in a note the incident highlights risks in cross-chain infrastructure, particularly in verification systems used by bridges.

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Early analysis suggests the issue may have originated in the verification layer rather than in smart contracts themselves.

Chung added that the episode also shows how interconnected DeFi protocols can transmit shocks beyond the initial point of failure, with withdrawal activity and market freezes extending to platforms without direct exposure to the exploit.

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Bitcoin Drops to $74K as US-Iran Tensions Flare

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Bitcoin Drops to $74K as US-Iran Tensions Flare

Bitcoin erased its weekend gains as it fell below $74,000 on Sunday after the US military seized an Iranian cargo ship, putting pressure on a ceasefire between the two countries. 

Bitcoin (BTC) had soared above $78,300 late Friday on Coinbase, its highest price since early February, but dropped to between $75,000 and $76,000 over the weekend after Iran said it would close vital oil routes in the Strait of Hormuz.

The cryptocurrency then sank sharply late on Sunday to briefly trade below $74,000 after the US military said it opened fire on, and later seized, an Iranian cargo ship it claimed tried to run its blockade of Iranian ports, with Tehran accusing the US of violating an agreed ceasefire. 

The two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, which had helped boost the markets and temper oil prices, is set to end on Wednesday.

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Bitcoin’s price in US dollars on Coinbase over the last five days has fallen over the weekend amid rising tensions between the US and Iran. Source: TradingView

Tehran has vowed to retaliate over the US military’s seizure of the ship and has rejected a new round of peace talks slated for Monday in Islamabad, Pakistan, due to the US blockade, Iranian state media reported.

Related: Bitcoin eyes $90K as whales absorb 20x daily BTC supply in 30 days

US stock futures sank Sunday night amid rising tensions, with S&P 500 futures dropping 0.8%, Nasdaq-100 futures falling 0.6% and Dow Jones futures declining 0.9%, or about 450 points.

Oil futures also soared amid the hostilities and Iran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, with crude oil futures rising over 4.5% to over $95 a barrel.

The Crypto Fear & Greed index rose by two points to a score of 29 out of 100 on Monday, its highest score since late January, but which still indicated a sentiment of “fear.”

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Magazine: Bitcoin will not hit $1M by 2030, says veteran trader Peter Brandt