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Crypto World

Dogecoin (DOGE) Exhibits Pattern That Previously Sparked 5,800% and 21,000% Rallies

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

Key Takeaways

  • Dogecoin currently hovers around $0.09106, residing in what historical cycles indicate as a prolonged consolidation period.
  • Technical analysis from Bitcoinsensus reveals Cycle 3 displaying structural similarities to Cycles 1 and 2, which delivered returns of 5,800% and 21,000% respectively.
  • Progressive higher lows characterize each DOGE cycle — Cycle 1 bottomed around $0.000020, Cycle 2 near $0.00070, and Cycle 3 maintaining support above $0.09.
  • Trader sentiment on Binance leans bullish, with long-to-short ratios climbing across both account counts and trading volume.
  • ETF activity shows no momentum, maintaining zero daily net inflow while total net assets hover near $9.12 million without institutional participation.

Dogecoin (DOGE) currently changes hands at approximately $0.09106. The popular meme cryptocurrency has captured renewed interest following a technical analysis shared by crypto analyst Bitcoinsensus, which examines three distinct DOGE market cycles in parallel.

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Dogecoin (DOGE) Price

The first cycle delivered explosive returns exceeding 5,800%. The second cycle surpassed expectations with staggering gains topping 21,000%. Both cycles exhibited identical structural characteristics: gradual accumulation, explosive upward momentum, followed by substantial retracement. The current Cycle 3 demonstrates striking similarities to this established framework.

DOGE achieved a cycle high approaching $0.70 before entering a correction phase. The asset has subsequently declined and currently finds equilibrium within the $0.09 to $0.10 trading corridor.

A notable consistency spanning all three cycles involves progressively higher cyclical lows. The first cycle established its base near $0.000020. The second cycle formed support around $0.00070. The third cycle has successfully defended levels above $0.09 throughout its current retracement.

This ascending low structure indicates buyer conviction intensifying at progressively higher valuations with each successive cycle. The pattern demonstrates Dogecoin attracting an expanding participant base across time.

Binance Trading Activity Reveals Bullish Sentiment

Recent Binance metrics reveal a notable shift in trader positioning. The long-to-short ratio among experienced traders has expanded, evident in both participant count and capital allocation. This development indicates increasing numbers of traders establishing long positions on DOGE appreciation, with many expanding position sizes rather than reducing exposure.

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Such positioning typically reflects strengthening market conviction, though it simultaneously creates conditions for crowded trades. When trader sentiment becomes excessively one-directional, brief corrections frequently emerge.

Nevertheless, current positioning data confirms active accumulation at prevailing price levels, representing deliberate strategy rather than reactive trading to existing price movement.

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Technical Indicators Suggest Market Coiling for Breakout

Examining technical metrics, the RSI registers near 42 — occupying neutral territory between overbought and oversold conditions. The MACD displays minimal momentum. The ADX reads approximately 15, validating the absence of directional trend strength currently.

Bollinger Bands have contracted significantly, establishing resistance around $0.10 and support near $0.09. Historical precedent shows compressed bands typically precede volatility expansion.

A decisive move above $0.10 could establish a trajectory toward $0.15. Conversely, if support at $0.09 fails, additional downside becomes probable.

Regarding ETF activity, daily net inflows register at zero. Total net assets remain around $9.12 million without expansion. Institutional capital flows through this vehicle have remained dormant.

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Market analyst Vuori Trading shared on X that DOGE currently occupies what they characterized as a “generational buying zone,” asserting that “there is no reason why this thing can’t hit $10+ this cycle.”

ETF inflows continue showing zero activity on a daily basis, with total net assets stabilized around $9.12 million.

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Crypto World

Hyperliquid volume jumps but TradFi still rules commodity depth

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Is Hyperliquid’s $3.64B whale book about to pick a side?

Onchain commodity trading is drawing more attention as traders look for round-the-clock access to oil, gold, and index products. 

Summary

  • Hyperliquid recorded $5.4 billion in macro perpetual volume as silver, oil, gold and indices led.
  • Weekend access kept onchain markets open while traditional commodity venues stayed closed to active traders.
  • Thin liquidity and wider spreads still keep onchain commodity trading below institutional size and execution.

Recent volume data shows that demand is rising, but limited liquidity still keeps traditional markets ahead in scale and execution.

Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 market reached a new record on March 23. The platform posted about $5.4 billion in perpetual futures volume across commodities and macro assets. Silver led activity with $1.3 billion, while WTI crude oil reached $1.2 billion. Brent crude oil recorded $940 million, and gold posted $558 million.

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The rise in volume points to broader interest in onchain macro trading. Equity indices such as the Nasdaq and S&P 500 also drew activity. This shows that traders are using decentralized markets for more than crypto-linked positions.

One of the main strengths of onchain trading is constant market access. Traditional exchanges close for part of the weekend, but decentralized platforms remain open. That gap gives traders a way to respond to geopolitical events and macro news in real time.

Theo chief investment officer Iggy Ioppe said the market is changing. He said, 

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”Previously, onchain commodity futures were mostly a venue for crypto-native investors, that is no longer the whole story.” 

He also said weekend oil futures volume has moved above $1 billion per day while traditional markets remain closed.

This shift has started to shape how prices form outside normal market hours. Traders can react before legacy venues reopen. That creates a role for onchain markets during off-hours, even if most large volume still sits elsewhere.

Despite higher activity, liquidity remains a core issue. Traditional venues still offer deeper order books, tighter spreads, and better execution for large trades. That makes it harder for onchain platforms to handle institutional-sized orders without moving prices.

1inch co-founder Sergej Kunz said traditional venues still lead in liquidity and execution quality. MEXC Research chief analyst Shawn Young also said the sector remains in an early stage, with gaps in price aggregation and market structure still unresolved.

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Growth continues as traders test macro exposure onchain

Market participants still expect further growth. Gold and oil have led the current push, but other asset classes may follow as traders grow more comfortable with onchain access to macro products.

Ioppe said trust in weekend pricing may support more activity over time. As more traders use these markets during off-hours, volume and open interest can grow together. That process may help onchain commodity trading expand, even while traditional markets remain the main source of depth.

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Onchain Commodity Trading Grows, but Liquidity still Favors TradFi

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Onchain Commodity Trading Grows, but Liquidity still Favors TradFi

Onchain commodity trading is proving it’s more than a short-term spike, but limited liquidity continues to hold the market back from competing with traditional venues.

Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 market recorded a new all-time high on March 23, with roughly $5.4 billion in perpetual futures volume across commodities and macro assets. Silver led the activity at $1.3 billion, followed by WTI crude oil at $1.2 billion, Brent crude at $940 million and gold at $558 million. Equity indices, including the Nasdaq and S&P 500, also saw notable volumes.

HIP-3 per volume. Source: Artemis

Industry participants say the spike shows growing demand for macro exposure onchain. “Previously, onchain commodity futures were mostly a venue for crypto-native investors, that is no longer the whole story,” said Iggy Ioppe, chief investment officer at Theo. “The real tell is not just the volume, it’s when the volume shows up and who is showing up to trade.”

Ioppe noted that onchain oil futures markets are now processing more than $1 billion in daily volume over weekends, when traditional exchanges are offline. He said the shift is being driven in part by individual traders from traditional finance, who are accessing these markets through personal accounts. “Geopolitics does not stop on Friday afternoon, and markets are starting to adapt to that fact,” he said.

Related: S&P Dow Jones licenses S&P 500 perpetual futures for Hyperliquid

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Weekend gap gives onchain markets an edge

The ability to trade around the clock has emerged as a defining advantage for onchain venues. With a roughly 49-hour gap between the close of traditional markets on Friday and their reopening on Sunday, decentralized platforms have become one of the few places where traders can react to macro developments in real time.

That dynamic is starting to influence how prices are formed outside regular trading hours, even if the bulk of liquidity still sits in traditional markets. “For now, onchain is the price discovery layer when the rest of the market is asleep,” Ioppe said. “TradFi is still the depth layer when size matters most.”

On the CME, oil futures alone regularly see between 1 million and 4.5 million contracts traded daily, equivalent to roughly $100 billion to $300 billion in notional volume.

Crude oil futures and volume. Source: CME

“Traditional venues still dominate when it comes to liquidity, execution quality, and institutional-scale pricing depth,” Sergej Kunz, co-founder of 1inch, said. He noted that deeper liquidity and tighter spreads remain the main barrier. Without them, onchain markets struggle to handle large trades without moving prices, limiting institutional participation.

Additional challenges include pricing reliability, market structure maturity and regulatory clarity, according to Shawn Young, chief analyst at MEXC Research.

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Young said commodity tokenization shows “signs of real behavioral changes” but remains in an early phase, with gaps in liquidity and price aggregation still to be addressed.

Related: Perp DEXs become the latest battleground for blockchains

Onchain macro trading expands beyond commodities

Despite certain constraints, activity continues to build. “The broader direction is clear: traders are becoming more comfortable accessing macro-style exposure onchain,” Kunz said.

Gold and oil have led the current wave, but market participants expect similar patterns to emerge in other asset classes as volatility shifts.

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Ioppe concluded that trading activity on onchain futures markets is likely to persist as trust builds around weekend pricing. As more traders begin to rely on these markets during off-hours, volume starts to follow. That, in turn, supports growing open interest, reinforcing confidence in the prices being formed. Over time, this creates a self-reinforcing cycle, where higher participation strengthens market credibility and draws in even more flow.

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