Economic growth is likely to be slower and inflation higher than previously expected, according to the Nationwide report

House price growth picked up in March, but the conflict in the Middle East has clouded the economic outlook and could lead to housing market activity softening, according to a report. Annual UK house price growth picked up to 2.2% in March, from 1.0% in February, Nationwide Building Society said.

Property values increased by 0.9% month-on-month, taking the average house price in March to £277,186.

Robert Gardner, chief economist of the Swindon-headquartered lender, said the pick-up in growth suggested the market had regained momentum after a slowdown recorded around the turn of the year.

But he warned the sharp rise in global energy prices in response to developments in the Middle East represented a “significant shock” to the global economy, clouding the outlook.

“In the near term, UK economic growth is likely to be slower and inflation higher than previously expected, although ultimately the impact will depend on the duration of the shock as well as the policy response,” he said.

Mr Gardiner said the outlook for interest rates was “particularly uncertain” and was dependent on whether the demand or supply side of the economy was more adversely affected.

“Nevertheless, financial market expectations for the future path of (the Bank of England base rate) have shifted dramatically,” he said. “Towards the end of March, three interest rate increases were priced in over the next 12 months, compared to two rate cuts being anticipated before the strikes on Iran.

“This shift has resulted in a sharp rise in longer-term interest rates (swap rates) that underpin fixed-rate mortgage pricing. If sustained, this could reverse some of the improvement in housing affordability that has taken place in recent years.”

He also warned that consumer sentiment was “likely to be dented” by the uncertain outlook and that with the prospect of rising energy costs, housing market activity would likely soften.

Mortgage rates have jumped in recent weeks, with financial information website Moneyfacts reporting that hundreds of deals have been withdrawn, with products trickling back into the market but at higher rates.

Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank, said: “The impact from the Middle East conflict on the housing market is still in the post.

“The fact mortgage offers last for six months means the effect of higher borrowing costs will filter into the market this spring and summer, putting downwards pressure on prices and transaction volumes.”

Alice Haine, personal finance analyst at Bestinvest by Evelyn Partners, said the price growth seen in March could “be the calm before the storm, if borrowing costs continue to climb in response to the latest geopolitical shock”.

She added: “Escalating tensions in the Middle East have upended inflation and interest rate expectations, something that could dampen demand if buyers find it harder to secure the mortgages they need.”

The average house prices in the first quarter of 2026, followed by the annual change, according to Nationwide Building Society:

Northern Ireland, £225,269, 9.5%

North West, £229,173, 3.3%

Scotland, £191,747, 3.0%

Wales, £215,411, 2.7%

North East, £170,378, 2.6%

London, £538,181, 1.7%

Yorkshire and the Humber, £214,866, 1.6%

Outer Metropolitan, £430,260, 1.0%

East Midlands, £236,016, 0.3%

South West, £305,701, 0.1%

West Midlands, £249,722, 0.0%

East Anglia, £273,237, minus 0.4%

Outer South East, £336,036, minus 0.7%

More than three quarters of UK businesses are already feeling the impact of the Middle East conflict, as rising energy costs and supply chain disruption begin to feed through into operations, yet confidence at the firm level remains notably resilient.

New research from Barclays, based on a survey of more than 500 business leaders, shows that 66 per cent of companies are experiencing pressure from higher fuel and energy prices, while half report moderate to significant disruption to supply chains.

The findings highlight the speed at which geopolitical instability is affecting day-to-day business activity, with shipping and logistics costs also rising for 43 per cent of firms, adding further strain to margins.

Companies are already responding by adjusting operations and cutting costs. Around 37 per cent have taken steps to reduce energy usage or improve efficiency across their supply chains, while nearly a third have increased prices to offset rising expenses.

Other measures include reducing discretionary spending and tightening overall cost control, with many firms expecting to intensify these actions over the coming months. More than a third are planning further price increases, signalling that cost pressures are likely to continue feeding through to consumers.

The data suggests that while businesses are adapting quickly, the cumulative effect of higher costs and uncertainty is beginning to reshape decision-making across sectors.

Access to finance is emerging as a key factor in maintaining resilience. Barclays’ research shows that 41 per cent of businesses see support with cashflow management as essential, while 39 per cent highlight the importance of working capital and short-term credit.

Existing cash reserves are also playing a crucial role, with more than 80 per cent of firms identifying them as vital in navigating current conditions. Trade finance and cross-border payment solutions are similarly viewed as important tools for managing disruption in international markets.

Abdul Qureshi, head of business banking at Barclays, said the current environment presents a “convergence of pressures” for UK firms.

“For SMEs, dependable cash flow and access to working capital are increasingly important, not only to keep operations running, but to safeguard future growth plans,” he said.

The impact of rising costs is already being reflected in consumer spending patterns. Barclays data shows fuel spending rose by nearly 11 per cent year-on-year at the onset of the conflict, driven by higher prices and demand.

At the same time, discretionary spending is beginning to soften, with spending on holidays and travel falling by almost 8 per cent as households adopt a more cautious approach to their finances.

This shift in consumer behaviour is likely to create additional headwinds for businesses, particularly those reliant on non-essential spending.

Despite these challenges, the research reveals a striking divergence between business-level confidence and broader economic sentiment.

While 78 per cent of firms remain confident in their own prospects and 74 per cent are optimistic about their sector, confidence in the wider economy is significantly weaker. Fewer than half of respondents expressed confidence in the UK economy, with even lower levels for the global outlook.

This suggests that while businesses believe they can manage current pressures internally, there is growing concern about the external environment and its longer-term implications.

Most business leaders expect geopolitical uncertainty to weigh on investment and growth plans over the next year, although the majority anticipate only a moderate impact. A smaller proportion, around one in ten, foresee a significant constraint on their operations.

Matt Hammerstein, chief executive of Barclays UK Corporate Bank, said firms are being forced to balance immediate challenges with long-term planning.

“Businesses are having to manage disruption today while remaining ready to invest and grow when conditions improve,” he said.

The findings paint a picture of an economy under pressure but not yet in retreat. UK businesses are adapting to rising costs and uncertainty, drawing on cash reserves and financial support to maintain stability.

However, the persistence of energy price volatility and geopolitical risk means the coming months will be critical.

While confidence at the firm level remains strong, the widening gap with broader economic sentiment suggests that resilience may be tested further if external conditions deteriorate, particularly if cost pressures intensify or demand weakens.

Amy Ingham

Amy is a newly qualified journalist specialising in business journalism at Business Matters with responsibility for news content for what is now the UK’s largest print and online source of current business news.

‘I’m proud to take on this role at such an important time for the organisation’

Greater Manchester Chamber of Commerce has appointed past president Wayne Jones OBE as its new chair in a move it says “marks a new chapter for the organisation, but one rooted firmly in continuity”.

The Chamber was sold out of administration last year, with directors vowing a “seamless transition” of its business support services. Now Mr Jones, who has been a Chamber board member for more than a decade, is to succeed Phil Cusack as chair.

Mr Jones serves on the Liverpool-Manchester Railway Partnership Board and was in 2016 named a Global Ambassador for Manchester. He was previously a member of the executive board of MAN Energy (now Everllence).

In a statement, the Chamber said: “His appointment comes at a pivotal moment. Greater Manchester Chamber is entering its first full financial year as a new organisation, and the role of Chair has never carried more weight. With the organisation navigating a period of genuine evolution, the Chair’s responsibilities extend beyond the boardroom: providing leadership, representing the Chamber’s voice externally, and maintaining the confidence of the business community across all ten boroughs of Greater Manchester.”

Mr Jones said: “Greater Manchester has always been a place that punches above its weight, and the Chamber has a vital role to play in making sure businesses here have the support, the platform and the representation they deserve. I’m proud to take on this role at such an important time for the organisation, and I’m looking forward to getting to work.”

Emma Holt, president of the Chamber, added: “Wayne has been part of the foundation of this organisation for a significant period. He knows what we stand for, he knows what Greater Manchester needs, and he has the credibility and the drive to help us move forward with purpose. We’re delighted to welcome him into this role.”

The Chamber also paid tribute to Phil Cusak’s “service and commitment” to the organisation.