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Kristian Niemietz, editorial director at the Institute of Economic Affairs, joins Chris Snowdon and Tom Slater for the latest episode of Last Orders. They discuss Labour’s call for supermarket price caps, the junk science about gambling, and Zack Polanski’s mysterious appeal.

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Andy Burnham’s campaign launch (AP Photo/Ian Hodgson/Alamy)

11 min read4 min

Labour activists usually begin their doorstep conversations with the words, “Hello, I’m calling on behalf of your local Labour Party.” Not so in Makerfield, where Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham is relying heavily on his personal vote to return him to Westminster.

In the Wigan constituency, which has always been Labour-held but where Reform picked up 24 out of 25 seats in last month’s local elections, the governing party’s by-election message is focused squarely on Burnham. It is a cartoon of his face emblazoned across leaflets and Correx boards, along with the words “ANDY FOR US”. Labour branding is limited, pretty much, to what is legally required. Nobody in the party thinks Labour would have a chance of winning this contest with any other candidate.

Accordingly, Burnham has decided to prioritise his personal interactions with voters. Insiders say the campaign is cutting down on his media time in favour of door-knocking, meeting locals and having sit-downs – including with Reform voters. He won’t convince everyone in the room, they say, but he is determined to have “honest discussions”.

In that vein, Burnham has issued clear instructions that the campaign must aim to speak to every household in the constituency. Canvassing typically involves putting a targeting filter on voter data so that activists miss out the doors of those who have consistently opposed their party, in a bid to save time and concentrate resources where they are most useful. But Burnham wants every door knocked and to wait longer than usual before a more targeted approach is introduced in the run-up to polling day.

This approach means “difficult conversations” are frequent. Those who have been on the Makerfield doorsteps say they have been faced with a real mix of responses. “Not interested, mate” is the standard reply of Reform backers; “Can’t be bothered, I never vote” is that of the wholly disillusioned. But “I like Andy – I know what he’s done for the buses” is also heard.

Because while some voters are firmly Reform, others are desperate to block Nigel Farage’s party, and others still have voted Reform locally but say they will give Burnham their vote.

The Burnham factor is real, canvassers report – a finding backed by polling. The House is told that Josh Simons gave up his seat to make way for the mayor after hearing one too many times from voters that they were grateful for the work he was doing but could not vote for Labour – though they’d consider doing so if Burnham were leader.

Labour campaigners are emphasising that Burnham is a local man. “He grew up here, sent his kids to the local school and lives a stone’s throw away. He cares about the area, this is home, and he wants the change that the country needs to begin here – and look at his track record, he’s been a great mayor for Manchester.” These are the key lines. Burnham has lived with his family in the small town of Golborne, just outside the constituency, since his time as MP for neighbouring Leigh.

Fortunately for the Burnham campaign, given its level of ambition for seat coverage, it is not struggling for bodies: Labour people “from every corner of the country and every corner of the party” are joining the effort, as one source puts it. Party chair Anna Turley has asked all Labour MPs to canvass in the by-election twice during the campaign plus polling day. 

High-profile figures close to Keir Starmer are not being discouraged from visiting, nor indeed are leadership rival Wes Streeting and his allies, who have been welcomed. (The former health secretary joined on the first weekend after Burnham had been confirmed as the candidate.) Turning out supporters is key and it’s “all hands on deck”.

North West Labour is a little tired, an insider points out, after being “stuck in a loop of by-elections for years”. Since the start of 2022, the region has been the site of more by-elections than any other (most recently Gorton and Denton, but previously Runcorn and Helsby, Blackpool South, Rochdale, Stretford and Urmston, and the then City of Chester). Many were easier in the sense that Morgan McSweeney had done the strategic work months or years prior – “you just had to execute it”, as the local Labour source puts it.

Still, Burnham has a bigger team around him than is typical for by-elections. There are not one but two ‘political leads’ – Anneliese Midgley, the trade union insider and Knowsley MP said to be highly trusted by Burnham, and Louise Haigh, the former Cabinet member who has championed Team Burnham in Parliament – as well as not one but two ‘campaign aides’ – David Baines and Sally Jameson, both 2024 intake MPs.

As ever, he also has his close political aide and friend, chief of staff Kevin Lee, who helps with messaging. Leigh MP Jo Platt, who acts as a liaison with the parliamentary party, is called upon for her local borough knowledge too. Simons, whose bold decision to vacate the seat triggered the by-election, is also involved and said to be “across everything”. And there is deputy leader Lucy Powell, who is focused on mobilising members, encouraging MPs to visit and fighting Reform in the ‘air war’.

Those dropping into the campaign from elsewhere are full of praise. “It was the first time I felt hopeful in months,” says one Labour MP. They would prefer to see Wes Streeting become the next prime minister, yet describe how refreshing they find “an election campaign with some energy” – one in which “you don’t have the albatross of Keir Starmer around your neck”.

“It felt like they really knew what they were doing in terms of the organisation. All the other by-election campaigns have also been really well-run, but the others have been well-run in spite of the national government,” they add.

“Within the Labour Party, everyone is knocking for the same purpose, and that purpose is getting rid of Keir Starmer. It’s been the cause that dare not speak its name for two years – ‘Keir’s a bit shit, isn’t he?’ – and now people are able to say it.”

Some of those closer to the Makerfield campaign are more critical. The House has heard complaints that there are “too many cooks” and it is unclear who exactly is holding the reins. These criticisms are aimed both at the local campaign and the parallel preparations for government. For the latter, Ed Miliband ally Miatta Fahnbulleh leads on policy, but there are lots of other voices vying for input.

Allies recognise the unfeasibility of running in a highly challenging by-election while preparing for No 10; of being attractive to Makerfield voters, the country and the party’s MPs and members all at the same time.

“There’s no signature policy. He’s appealing to Makerfield, he’s appealing to the country, and he’s appealing to the Labour Party. It’s impossible. He’s just got to pick one and it needs to be Makerfield,” says a pro-Burnham Labour MP.

It’s been the cause that dare not speak its name for two years – ‘Keir’s a bit shit, isn’t he?’ – and now people are able to say it

While the Labour mood is largely characterised by cautious optimism, there is a fear that voters’ minds could change quickly, even in such a short campaign, especially thanks to “the algorithms” shaping narratives. “Nobody thinks that this is in the bag, and you would be stupid to think that it is,” says a Labour MP close to the operation.

In the Greater Manchester constituency of ‘Makerfield’, there is no big town with that name. It is, in reality, a commuter area between Manchester and Liverpool that includes Ashton-in-Makerfield and Hindley, both with populations of around 25,000, and a number of villages. It is 97 per cent white and decidedly pro-Brexit; unemployment is low and home ownership is high. Flags are flown proudly and there is said to be a mix of views throughout the seat – far from the ‘constituency of two halves’ that is Gorton and Denton.

There are local issues: flooding, on which Simons is getting credit from locals after responsive casework when he was the MP; miners’ pensions, which have been boosted by the Labour government; Burnham’s help in getting an illegal waste site closed. But national, ‘big-ticket’ items are dominating, Labour sources say. 

Reform’s campaign may be focused on local issues, but it is GB News and social media driving the narrative. And there is a worry that the government-prep side of Burnham’s mission could derail the contest.

This anxiety piles on top of many others, most notably that there is not much of a progressive vote to squeeze (the Lib Dems and Greens are largely non-events here) and that the locals showed there is a significant “shy Reform vote” in the area. 

That Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain is cutting through in the by-election – even bringing out activists on the ground who have been seen knocking on doors – offers Labour some reprieve in the short term, but little comfort beyond this battle.

One MP on the party’s left worries that, even if Burnham pulls off a victory, the story could be the combined Reform and Restore vote share. “If it were not for Restore, Reform would be ahead. That’s troubling,” they say. “The story will be that he came through, but with a split vote. That isn’t a narrative of victory – that’s a narrative of ‘you got lucky’.”

This Labour MP believes that Burnham should be making his distance from the Starmer premiership clearer – even going so far as to tell the Prime Minister not to visit Makerfield during the campaign, as he has promised (or threatened) to do. 

“He needs to say, ‘I do not want you on my campaign’,” the MP urges. “Labour is dragging him down. Unless Andy is prepared to say, ‘I’m coming to take Starmer out’, it’s not cutting through,” they add. “Either you’re an insurgent or you’re not. He needs to come in going, ‘I won because I distanced myself from the shitshow that’s been the last two years’.”

But it is thought unlikely Burnham will make such feelings explicit or banish Starmer from the campaign. “It will be very carefully choreographed,” a different MP notes of the visit expected by the PM. “There will be a meeting where Keir is presented with some very trusted local Labour people, but let’s not fool ourselves – Keir is not going to go out knocking in Abram ward,” they add, referring to one of the more economically deprived bits of the seat.

The absurdity of a vote for Labour being a vote against the Labour Prime Minister in this by-election does not always arise, but these conversations sometimes happen organically. There is no official script to follow when they do, but some activists tell The House they reply with a wink-wink, nudge-nudge, ‘well-you-know-who-is-well-placed-to-kick-him-out’ answer.

If it were not for Restore, Reform would be ahead. That’s troubling

Conversations with Labour MPs and others about Makerfield all quickly turn to the impending leadership change. Ironically, those most keen on a coronation for Burnham have included some Starmer supporters: the less chaos, the better.

Streeting backers are fairly relaxed, while emphasising the need for a broad-church approach if Burnham gets in. “Everyone has accepted that anything’s better than the status quo,” one says. “There’s a really healthy respect between the Wes camp and the Andy camp. We looked at how the Tories did their changes and there was never any respect left. You always had a section who were eviscerated and left to go and lick their wounds until enough of their colleagues got pissed off again in six months’ time. I think we’re all aware that that can’t happen.”

Meanwhile, the Labour left MPs are clear that there must not be a coronation. “Not that I would support him, but I would hope that Streeting would say, ‘I am going to be contesting this’. You go to the party with two candidates – one a credible candidate of the centre left, one a credible candidate of the centre right – and they fight it out. That is the way the party should behave,” says one MP. “It didn’t work for Gordon,” says another, referring to Brown’s 2007 accession. “Andy would wipe the floor with any candidate, and he needs that, and the party needs to see that.”

Whatever comes next, everyone involved in Labour’s Makerfield campaign describes its outcome in apocalyptic terms. “It is existential,” says one. “If we can beat Reform in these circumstances, it’s a playbook for the country.” A Burnham-backing MP puts it more starkly: “If Andy does not win this, we’re all fucked.” 

4 min read19 min

Pity Keir Starmer. Clinging on in Downing Street while a leadership contest in all but name rages around him. Forced to campaign for a man who hopes to oust him. Change is what he promised the British people, and a change seems to be what his colleagues now want. Whether that satisfies the electorate is another matter entirely.

The Prime Minister currently ‘enjoys’ the lowest satisfaction level of any PM since they started asking the question in the 1970s. Coupled with the disastrous results suffered by the Labour Party in recent elections, this has proved enough to bring simmering discontent with the Prime Minister to the boil. According to recent Stonehaven polling, only 47 per cent of 2024 Labour voters now think he should stay in No 10. The resignations of Wes Streeting and Jess Philips, plus a host of junior ministerial colleagues, coupled with the clear ambition of Andy Burnham to secure the top job, have piled the pressure on.  

But would a change of leader help the party? The data here is mixed. Based on a simple question – how much more or less likely would you be to vote Labour if the party had a contest that elected a new leader – 35 per cent of 2024 Labour voters who have deserted the party declare they would not support the party even in this eventuality. 23 per cent say they would be slightly more likely to, 7 per cent much more likely, while 35 per cent want to wait and see who the winner is.

More sophisticated MRP modelling, which incorporates tactical voting, finds some 23 per cent of all voters are more likely to vote for the Labour Party under a leader other than Starmer (13 per cent slightly more likely and 9 per cent much more likely), while 12 per cent did not know. 42 per cent said they would not vote Labour irrespective of the leader.

On the surface at least, such shifts could have a significant impact. The Stonehaven MRP model projects the following seat distribution as its current base case: Reform UK 258 seats, Labour 154, the Conservatives 98, the Liberal Democrats 75, the SNP 32, the Greens 10 and Plaid Cymru 4.

Yet in a scenario in which voters who said they would be more likely to support Labour under a new leader switched their vote accordingly, that changes significantly. Under the most expansive scenario (whereby all those who said they would be “slightly” or “much” more likely to back Labour under a new leader do so), the equivalent numbers are: Labour 336 seats; Reform 151 seats, the Conservatives 45, the Liberal Democrats 70, the SNP 23,  the Greens 3, and Plaid Cymru 4.

There’s a caveat. This modelling only captures voters who would be more likely to support Labour under a new leader. It does not account for those who might abandon Labour after a leadership contest. The figures should therefore be read as an indication of the ceiling of potential recovery rather than a forecast of Labour’s position under any specific alternative leader.

Now, on the one hand, these findings are significant enough to give some grounds for optimism that a leadership contest might lead to a polling recovery. On the other hand, they should be treated with caution.

It is remarkable how unpopular Starmer has become and how quickly. It is difficult to square what has clearly been a lacklustre premiership with the levels of dislike he has generated. 47 per cent of even Labour voters either dislike him or are neutral about him, which suggests that something more profound is going on.

And this is a longer-term malaise, a growing impatience on the part of the public with sustained failure to deliver prosperity. Britain is afflicted by a pervasive dissatisfaction driven by a long-term failure to generate economic growth. The current Prime Minister is carrying the can not only for his own mistakes but for those of his predecessors.

This suggests that the problem might not be specific to Starmer. Rather, we find ourselves trapped in a political economy doom loop. A stagnating economy has generated declining trust in politicians. This makes people less likely to tolerate short-term pain on the promise of longer-term progress. A consequent appetite for quick and easy solutions encourages short-termism that does little to address real structural problems. And on. And on.

There is little reason to suspect that Starmer’s successor will not be subject to the same pressures. Whatever polling bump they might enjoy will be fragile, and they risk falling victim to the same demand for instant results. Whether Labour sticks or twists, the need to deliver palpable improvements in living standards prior to their next appointment with the electorate will remain overwhelming.

Anand Menon is a Director at Public First and Director of UK in a Changing Europe

Lord Heseltine said Nigel Farage was ‘Donald Trump’s vicar in Britain’ (Photograph by Tom Pilston)

2 min read13 min

In an interview with The House magazine, the former minister in Thatcher’s Conservative government suggested that the late prime minister would have seen through the Reform UK leader’s “opportunism” and “prejudices”.

Farage, by contrast, said last year that there “isn’t any doubt” that Reform would have appealed to Thatcher. Following her death in 2013, he also declared that he was the only politician “keeping the flame of Thatcherism alive”. 

The Reform leader, who was a Tory member in the 1980s while working as a commodities trader in the City, has said that Thatcher was a “great inspiration” to him.

But asked what opinion Thatcher might have had of Farage and his political project today, Heseltine told The House: “She’d have hated him. 

“Nigel Farage will assimilate himself with anyone he thinks has got a resonance in public opinion. He is Donald Trump’s vicar in Britain…

“But the origins of ‘Nigel Trump’ are a guy with a beer tankard and a fag. Then the farmers get into trouble, and he turns up looking like a farmer – and this is all a communications process. Successful, but based on opportunism, based on a degree of prejudices which I find abhorrent. She would have had nothing to do with him.”

Speaking to The Spectator last year, Farage claimed that “it was made very clear” to him that Thatcher had voted for his previous political outfit, UKIP, in the 1999 European elections.

In a 2024 interview with The Telegraph, the Reform leader argued that both he and Thatcher were conviction politicians, praising her as “a fighter who stood up and fought for issues, not because focus groups told her she should, but because she believed it was the right direction to go in…

“So if there was a similarity, it’s being unafraid to fight for things that may not be trendy today but may well become so in the future.”

The House magazine’s full interview with Lord Heseltine will be published in print and online in June.