Crypto World
AI giants Meta, Microsoft, NVIDIA see stocks amid Iran threat, AI cryptos crash
U.S. technology and AI giants’ stocks, such as Meta, Microsoft, and NVIDIA, crashed after Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps threatened military action against their regional bases.
Summary
- U.S. tech stocks, including Meta, Microsoft, and NVIDIA, dropped sharply after Iran designated 18 American companies as potential military targets.
- Disruptions at AWS data centers in the Middle East impacted AI and cloud services, raising concerns over operational risks to critical infrastructure.
- AI-linked crypto tokens such as TAO, NEAR, and ICP declined 4–6% as geopolitical tensions spilled into digital asset markets.
On April 1, 2026, the IRGC officially designated 18 U.S. companies as “legitimate targets” described by Tehran as retaliation for the targeted assassination of major Iranian leaders by the U.S. and Israeli forces. These include Alphabet (Google), Apple, Microsoft, Meta, NVIDIA, Intel, IBM, Oracle, Cisco, Dell, HP, Palantir, Boeing, Tesla, GE, JPMorgan Chase, G42, and Spire Solutions
Following the announcement, Meta shares dropped by 13.31% while Microsoft and NVIDIA shares dropped by 8.34% and 6.00%, respectively.
The threats have translated into immediate operational risks with reports of drone activity causing power failures at two Amazon Web Services data centers in the Middle East, which have disrupted AI and cloud services in the region, affecting banking payment processors and consumer apps. Notably, Anthropic’s Claude AI platform reportedly went offline for a period because it relies on AWS infrastructure.
Iranian officials allege that these ICT and AI companies are complicit in tracking and identifying targets for “terrorist operations” against Iranian leaders.
For its part, the U.S. administration has dismissed the threats, with White House officials stating the U.S. military is prepared to thwart any potential aggression. Meanwhile, companies like Intel and Boeing have already implemented safety protocols for regional staff amid the escalating geopolitical and kinetic risk to critical infrastructure.
The news of the attack on AI-focused companies also rippled onto AI-focused crypto assets, which rely on the hardware and cloud ecosystems of NVIDIA and other giants that have come under fire.
According to data from crypto.news, Chainlink (LINK), currently the largest AI coin with a market cap of over $6 billion, has fell 5.8% over the past 24 hours. Bittensor (TAO), Near Protocol (NEAR), and Internet Computer (ICP) also recorded nearly similar losses between 4% and 5%. Together, the negative sentiment in the AI market led its market capitalization to drop over 3% to $0.59 billion at last check.
While these assets remain at risk of further losses if Iran starts carrying out more strikes, a sector-wide rebound could be in the cards if the U.S. manages to de-escalate the situation.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
Summary
- Coinbase’s x402 payment protocol has joined the Linux Foundation to push an open, standardized infrastructure for AI-native, internet payments.
- A new x402 Foundation has been set up with Coinbase and Cloudflare as co-founders, and Stripe as a founding member, alongside planned participation from firms including Google, AWS, Visa and Mastercard.
- Linux Foundation CEO Jim Zemlin and Google Cloud Web3 head James Tromans say the initiative will advance interoperable, AI-driven transaction standards under transparent, community governance.
Coinbase’s x402 protocol has formally joined the Linux Foundation, with the goal of turning its AI-focused payments stack into an open, standardized layer for internet-native transactions, according to reporting from CoinDesk. Designed to embed stablecoin payments directly into the HTTP 402 “Payment Required” status code, x402 lets APIs, apps and AI agents pay for services programmatically over the web without bolted-on billing flows.
To steward the standard, Coinbase and Cloudflare have created the x402 Foundation, with Stripe as a founding member and a broader coalition of payments and tech companies signaling plans to join. The ecosystem site lists Adyen, Amazon Web Services, American Express, Ant International, Base, Circle, Google, KakaoPay, Mastercard, Microsoft, Polygon Labs, Shopify, Solana Foundation and Visa among organizations that have expressed intent to participate as contributors or partners.
Linux Foundation chief Jim Zemlin said the x402 Foundation will drive development of the protocol “in an open, community-governed way,” emphasizing principles of transparency, interoperability and broad participation. The governance model is designed to keep x402 vendor-neutral: the specification is licensed under Apache 2.0, with “zero protocol fees, zero account creation, zero vendor lock-in,” and any server stack able to implement it in a short timeframe, as one analysis of the emerging payments race put it.
James Tromans, managing director for Google Cloud’s Web3 and digital assets business, said Google’s participation in the foundation reflects a commitment to “supporting interoperable, AI-driven transaction standards” that can work across clouds and networks. Stripe, meanwhile, has added x402 support on Base while also promoting its own solutions, effectively hedging by backing an open protocol alongside proprietary rails, according to recent ecosystem coverage.
Launched by Coinbase in 2025, x402 was pitched as a way to let AI agents, browsers and back-end services pay directly for APIs, content and compute by piggybacking on the existing HTTP request/response flow. A Coinbase developer post explained that a server can respond with a 402 code and payment terms, the client can settle in stablecoins such as USDC, and then automatically retry the request with a proof of payment, all without accounts, subscriptions or manual invoicing.
Cloudflare has already shipped x402 support in its Workers and AI Agents SDK, allowing developers to add machine-to-machine payments at the edge for use cases like model-to-model calls, paywalled APIs and streaming content. With the Linux Foundation now fronting governance and a cross-industry membership lining up behind the x402 Foundation, Coinbase is effectively betting that a neutral, open protocol can become the default way AI systems pay each other over the internet.
Gold is flashing conflicting signals in today’s prediction, softening price globally, yet renewed physical demand is emerging in key markets. In India, gold traded at a premium this week for the first time in two months, as lower spot prices triggered a surge in physical buying.
This is giving a mixed signal. Indian consumers are price-sensitive and move fast when dips arrive. Meanwhile, geopolitical pressure from the broadening US-Iran conflict continues to create safe-haven crosscurrents, typically bullish for gold. Yet oil is absorbing institutional hedging flows that would historically have landed in gold.
The metal is caught between its own fundamentals and political pressure.
Broader macro conditions, US equity recovery, persistent crypto ETF demand, and Middle East uncertainty are compressing gold’s near-term upside while keeping its floor intact.
Discover: The best pre-launch token sales
Gold Price Prediction: Metal Momentum Melting Away?
Gold spot prices pulled back sharply enough to trigger the first Indian physical premium in two months, signaling that lower prices are clearing demand but not generating fresh upside momentum. Volume patterns suggest buyers are opportunistic at the moment.
Key technical levels to watch: macro analysts tracking cross-asset flows note that gold’s ability to hold above its 50-day moving average will determine whether the current softness is a buyable dip or the early stage of a deeper retracement. Momentum indicators are flat-to-negative on the daily chart, with no clear catalyst for a reversal spike unless geopolitical escalation accelerates safe-haven demand.
If US-Iran tensions escalate sharply, ETF outflows from equities resume, and gold rebounds toward recent highs on genuine safe-haven rotation. Physical demand provides a price floor, gold consolidates in a tight band, and directional conviction stays low while crypto dominates headlines.
The data points to the base case as most probable near-term. Gold isn’t collapsing.
Discover: The best crypto to diversify your portfolio with
Maxi Doge: The Dog That Eats Metals
Gold’s muted momentum is precisely the environment that pushes speculative capital toward higher-velocity opportunities. Those hunting asymmetric upside aren’t waiting for gold to find direction. They’re looking earlier in the cycle.
Maxi Doge ($MAXI) is an ERC-20 meme token built around a 240-lb canine juggernaut embodying 1000x leverage trading mentality.
The presale has raised more than $4,7 million at a current price of just $0.0002811, with 66% APY staking as a bonus for holders. Features include Holder-Only Trading Competitions with leaderboard rewards, a Maxi Fund treasury for liquidity and partnerships, and meme-first viral marketing with measurable community traction.
Research Maxi Doge before committing capital.
This article is not financial advice. Conduct your own research before investing.
The post Gold Price Prediction: Metal Price Melting appeared first on Cryptonews.
Speculation is growing online that Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, may be posting on X with help from inside the United States.
The theory stems from unusually polished English posts, US-focused messaging, and an account label showing “connected via the US App Store.” Some users claim the tone feels “too American” to be organic.
However, there is no clear evidence that the account is run from the US or by Americans. The App Store label can reflect device settings or routing, not physical location.
American commentators are overstating these details. X settings show that Ghalibaf’s account was most likely accessed via an iPhone using a US-region Apple ID, or a VPN / routing setup
So, it doesn’t prove physical presence in the US.
What is clear is the messaging itself has changed.
Ghalibaf, a former IRGC commander and now a central political figure in Iran’s wartime leadership, has begun speaking directly to American audiences.
He references gas prices, economic hardship, and political decisions in Washington. His posts increasingly mirror US political language and online culture.
At the same time, he has made comments that resemble market commentary. In one example, he suggested investors should interpret political signals as indicators of market direction.
These posts stop short of financial advice but frame the war through economic consequences.
This shift aligns with a broader strategy. Iranian officials are using English-language posts to shape foreign public opinion during the conflict.
By focusing on economic pain and market reactions, Ghalibaf’s messaging makes the war feel immediate to US audiences.
The bigger story may not be where the posts come from, but why they sound this way. Ghalibaf is not just acting as a political figure in the war.
He is operating in the information space, where influence over perception can matter as much as actions on the ground.
The post Why Iran’s Top War Operator Suddenly Sounds Very American appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Key Takeaways
- The OCC has granted Coinbase conditional authorization to establish a federally chartered trust entity
- This charter is limited to custody operations and market infrastructure, excluding retail deposits and traditional banking
- Final approval hinges on Coinbase completing multiple regulatory and administrative requirements
- The federal designation is anticipated to expand Coinbase’s reach among institutional investors
- Coinbase’s current New York state trust charter and BitLicense continue operating without interruption
The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency has issued conditional authorization for Coinbase (COIN) to launch Coinbase National Trust Company, a federally chartered trust institution.
This OCC charter is tailored exclusively for custody operations and market infrastructure services. The crypto exchange will not accept consumer deposits or function as a conventional fractional reserve banking institution under this authorization.
According to Greg Tusar, Co-CEO of Coinbase Institutional, the clearance provides “federal regulatory uniformity to the custody and market infrastructure business we have been building for years.”
Coinbase filed its national trust charter application with the OCC in October of last year. The platform currently operates under a limited-purpose trust charter issued by the New York Department of Financial Services, which authorizes digital asset custody services at the state level through Coinbase Prime, its institutional division.
The federal charter represents a significant upgrade. “We’re the custodian to over 80% of the world’s digital asset ETFs, but there are a number of other asset managers and hedge funds and others that would like to see the entity that they face have this kind of charter,” Tusar explained.
Essentially, the OCC certification unlocks opportunities that state-level authorization alone cannot provide.
Coinbase’s institutional division reported $245.7 billion in assets under custody as of June 2025 — representing approximately 7% of the entire cryptocurrency market, based on figures from its charter filing.
Outstanding Requirements for Final Approval
Conditional authorization differs from full approval. Before the charter becomes operational, Coinbase must convene its inaugural board meeting, implement corporate bylaws, set up payment infrastructure, and successfully complete a pre-launch examination by the OCC.
The company has committed to collaborating closely with OCC regulators to satisfy all outstanding conditions.
Meanwhile, Coinbase’s existing New York BitLicense and state-level trust charter remain active and unchanged. Coinbase, Inc. continues its operations under NYDFS supervision without disruption.
Other Applicants Pursuing Federal Charters
Coinbase isn’t the only crypto firm seeking this regulatory status. The OCC granted conditional approvals to multiple digital asset companies late last year, including BitGo, Circle Internet Group, Fidelity Digital Assets, Ripple, and Paxos.
Additionally, EDX Markets — backed by Morgan Stanley and Citadel Securities — along with World Liberty Financial, the Trump family’s most significant cryptocurrency initiative, have submitted national trust charter applications.
The federal charter also establishes infrastructure for emerging payment solutions and complementary financial services, targeting both institutional partners and retail users as primary beneficiaries.
While Congress has moved forward with market structure legislation, federal supervision of crypto custody providers has remained inconsistent. This OCC approval fills that regulatory void for institutional services without requiring completed legislative action.
The US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) has approved cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase’s application for a national bank trust charter after six months of consideration.
In a Thursday X post, Coinbase chief legal officer Paul Grewal said the company received conditional approval for the OCC application, following December approvals for Ripple Labs, BitGo, Circle, Fidelity Digital Assets and Paxos.
Although the company said in October it had “no intention of becoming a bank” if approved, the move by US regulators marks one of the most significant forays into bridging crypto and traditional finance.
“Coinbase is not becoming a commercial bank,” said vice president of institutional product Greg Tusar in a Thursday blog post. “We will not be taking retail deposits. We will not be engaging in fractional reserve banking. This charter is about bringing federal regulatory uniformity to the custody and market infrastructure business we have been building for years.”
Tusar said that the company would continue to operate under the Department of Financial Services in New York, where it holds a BitLicense and a state charter as a limited-purpose trust company.
The OCC approval, coupled with Coinbase’s state-level efforts, came as the company is in the middle of a debate on issues stalling a digital asset market structure bill in Congress, including over stablecoin yield.
CEO Brian Armstrong said in January that the exchange could not support the legislation as written. Lawmakers on the Senate Banking Committee later postponed a markup, which is necessary before a potential floor vote on the bill.
Related: Coinbase exec says Senate CLARITY compromise is close, but no markup date set
At the time of publication, the OCC website showed no change to Coinbase’s application, which it marked as received by the banking regulator. Cointelegraph reached out to the exchange for comment but did not receive an immediate response.
Coinbase faces legal pushback over prediction markets
The crypto platform rolled out prediction market bets for US-based users in January as part of a partnership with Kalshi.
In lawsuits filed preemptively against state gaming authorities in Connecticut, Illinois and Michigan, Coinbase argued that the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, as a federal regulator, had the authority to oversee prediction markets. Many of the cases were ongoing as of Thursday.
Magazine: AI agents will kill the web as we know it: Animoca’s Yat Siu
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission and Department of Justice filed a lawsuit against Illinois and various state officials on Thursday over the state’s efforts to shutter prediction market providers.
Illinois sent cease-and-desist letters to some prediction market providers, arguing that the companies were offering sports gambling products that should be regulated under state law. The CFTC has argued that prediction markets are offering swaps products, which are regulated under the federal Commodity Exchange Act and therefore are under the “exclusive jurisdiction” of that regulator.
In the lawsuit, the CFTC continued this argument, saying Illinois’s efforts “intrudes on” the CFTC’s role, and that federal law preempts state regulations in this matter.
“Event contracts are derivative instruments that enable parties to trade on their predictions about whether a future event — which may relate to economics, or elections, or climate, or sports, or anything else of a potential financial, economic or commercial consequence — will occur,” the filing said.
The CFTC, especially under current Chairman Mike Selig, has argued that prediction markets are federally regulated, even as many of these companies expand to allow customers to place bets on sporting events. States, under both Republicans and Democrats, have pushed back. Nevada’s Gaming Control Board secured a temporary restraining order against Kalshi last month, with a hearing set for Friday.
The CFTC will participate in an appeals court hearing before the Ninth Circuit later this month, in a consolidated case involving the North American Derivatives Exchange, Kalshi and Robinhood.
Read more: Prediction markets backlash builds possible stormcloud for 2027
Anthony Scaramucci is openly backing Michael Saylor’s high‑yield Bitcoin strategy at the same time he jolts markets with a tongue‑in‑cheek X video announcing a 2028 presidential run, sharpening the line between his crypto advocacy and broader economic message.
Summary
- Scaramucci calls himself a “big fan” of Michael Saylor while dissecting Strategy Inc.’s roughly 11.5% perpetual yield tied to Bitcoin, warning that leverage and drawdowns remain real risks.
- In a previous crypto.news story, he linked that same wealth‑gap narrative to stalled CLARITY legislation in Washington and his long‑term Bitcoin thesis.
- His April 1 “Mooch 2028” video on X, framed as an April Fools’ gag, doubles as a campaign‑style address on inequality, debt and digital assets.
In a recent episode of the All Things Markets podcast, SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci and Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz pulled apart Strategy Inc.’s (NASDAQ: MSTR) use of high‑yield perpetual securities, which Scaramucci said can deliver “four quarterly dividend payments equivalent to a yield of approximately 11.5%” for Bitcoin believers. He was explicit about his own position: “I’m a big fan of Saylor, and obviously SkyBridge owns a lot of Bitcoin. We don’t hold any of those assets, but I just wanted to disclose that to people.”
Saylor’s 11.5% Bitcoin‑backed yield under scrutiny
Novogratz stressed the structure’s dependence on leverage: “It’s leverage on the strategy,” he said, arguing Saylor currently enjoys a “big margin of safety” because of his large Bitcoin corpus but that a sharp drop in BTC would “inevitably” eat into that cushion. He warned that if Bitcoin crashed to around $30,000, perpetual investors “naturally” fear losing principal, because they “don’t have the right to get their money back” and Saylor can theoretically halt dividends, which would likely push the instrument to a steep discount.
That nuanced pitch to yield‑hungry Bitcoin holders landed just hours before Scaramucci’s latest viral video on X, where he stood in his office wearing a “Mooch 2028” cap and declared, “I’m running for President of the United States in 2028… Join me and help me heal America.” The clip, posted on April Fools’ Day, was quickly framed by outlets like Benzinga and Breitbart as a prank, but it reads like a test balloon: he references his ill‑fated 11‑day stint in Donald Trump’s first White House and insists, “I do believe I can help guide this country in the right direction.”
In a separate BeInCrypto interview covered by BloomingBit, Scaramucci said that passing the CLARITY Act, Washington’s flagship crypto market‑structure bill, is “not an easy situation,” adding that “in the current political environment, securing 60 votes in the Senate is almost impossible.” Earlier comments to Coinness underscored how partisan rancor over Trump’s launch of a memecoin, which he said earned between $600 million and $700 million, has further poisoned the well for bipartisan crypto rules.
Price‑wise, Scaramucci has hardly turned cautious: in February he told Benzinga that Bitcoin “doesn’t reward being early, but being patient,” even as BTC traded near $70,981, down about 7.2% on the day, and more recently has floated scenarios of $2 million to $3 million per coin over the next decade. For a would‑be “Mooch 2028” candidate, the message is clear enough — leverage can juice returns, but the real bet is that Bitcoin outlasts U.S. political dysfunction.
Key Takeaways
- Needham reduced HOOD price target from $100 down to $90 while maintaining its Buy recommendation
- Compass Point lowered its target from $127 down to $108, retaining its Buy stance
- March data revealed declining volumes across equity, options, and cryptocurrency trading
- HOOD shares have plummeted 52% in the last six months and 38% since the year began
- The company’s banking arm has exceeded $1.5 billion in total deposits
Robinhood Markets has encountered significant headwinds this week as several Wall Street analysts have lowered their price expectations following the release of disappointing March trading data.
On Wednesday, Needham’s John Todaro revised his price target downward from $100 to $90, though he maintained his bullish Buy rating. His decision stemmed from observations of decelerating growth throughout virtually all segments of the platform.
“We view HOOD as the most advanced financial services platform in its evolution toward a comprehensive financial super app, however the latest volume data and reduced net interest income suggest a more subdued operating environment,” Todaro explained.
The March performance report, published March 30, indicated equity notional trading volumes reached approximately $196 billion. The platform processed 187 million options contracts, while cryptocurrency trading notional volumes totaled $16 billion.
Todaro adjusted his equities and options projections for the first quarter of 2026 downward but maintained his cryptocurrency volume forecasts unchanged, noting that declines in that sector had already been incorporated into previous models. He also reduced revenue expectations for both 2026 and 2027, primarily due to anticipated lower trading activity and diminished net interest income.
His revised $90 target price reflects 27 times Needham’s discounted fiscal 2027 EV/EBITDA calculation.
This adjustment came one day after Wolfe Research’s Steven Chubak lowered his target from $115 to $81 — representing approximately a 30% reduction. His revision followed a decline in cryptocurrency transaction revenues, further pressured by broader digital asset market weakness.
Compass Point Joins Downgrade Chorus
Compass Point’s Ed Engel similarly decreased his price objective on Wednesday, moving from $127 to $108 while preserving his Buy rating. His forecasting models project Q1 revenue coming in 9% beneath consensus expectations, with shortfalls anticipated across all three primary business lines.
Engel observed that retail trading activity typically decelerates after five to six straight months of volatile market conditions, and that most retail investor favorites have generally declined since early October.
He made a comparison to April 2025, when analysts were reducing forecasts ahead of Liberation Day. Engel proposed that should markets recover, Robinhood could emerge as a significant beneficiary considering the 2026 IPO calendar.
HOOD shares have now declined 52% during the past six months and trade 46% beneath their 52-week peak of $153.86. The stock currently carries a P/E multiple of 34.14 and commands a market capitalization of $63.1 billion. InvestingPro’s analysis indicates the stock appears overvalued at present price levels.
Banking Segment Provides Encouraging Signs
Despite trading challenges, not all indicators are negative. Robinhood’s banking operation has surpassed $1.5 billion in deposits, serving nearly 100,000 funded customers — representing an approximately 50% deposit increase over a recent timeframe.
Bernstein SocGen Group reduced its price target from $160 to $130 while maintaining an Outperform rating. The investment firm continues to forecast 25% earnings per share expansion by 2026 and a 30% revenue compound annual growth rate spanning 2025 through 2027.
Jefferies launched coverage with a Buy recommendation and an $88 price target, highlighting opportunities from expanding global retail participation and a diversified product offering.
According to TipRanks, HOOD maintains a Strong Buy consensus recommendation based on 15 Buy ratings and 2 Hold ratings, with an average price target of $117.33 — suggesting approximately 67% potential upside from current trading levels. The most optimistic price target among analysts reaches $147.
The company’s complete first-quarter earnings report is scheduled for release in May.
Soluna Holdings, a publicly traded Bitcoin (BTC) mining and AI infrastructure company focused on renewable energy, announced on Thursday that it closed a $53 million deal to acquire a wind farm to power its upcoming Project Dorothy 3 AI data center campus.
The Briscoe Wind Farm, located in Briscoe County, Texas, has a potential capacity of up to 300 megawatts (MW), according to the company’s announcement.
The company forecasts that the facility will generate annualized revenue between $20 million and $24.4 million.
Shares of Soluna are up by about 7.6% following the news, and are trading at about $0.76 at the time of writing.
Soluna expanded into AI data center infrastructure in February 2024, amid an industry-wide pivot toward AI and high-performance computing infrastructure to shore up declining revenues from the crypto mining business.
Related: AI data center gold rush sparks debate over impact on Bitcoin mining
Miners adopt renewable energy solutions amid profit squeeze
The Bitcoin mining industry faces several economic headwinds, including declining block rewards, rising energy costs and compressing profit margins, with many companies operating near or below breakeven levels.
Up to 20% of mining companies aren’t profitable, according to a March 2026 report from asset manager CoinShares.
The average cost to mine a single Bitcoin rose to nearly $80,000 in the fourth quarter of 2025, CoinShares said. Bitcoin is currently trading well below that level.
“Q4 2025 marked the most challenging quarter for Bitcoin miners since the April 2024 halving,” the report said.
The October 2025 market crash, which caused Bitcoin to plummet from an all-time high around the $125,000 level to a low of about $60,000, and rising network hashrate have placed even more pressure on the industry, CoinShares said.
Bitcoin mining companies sold over 15,000 BTC between October and early March to cover operating expenses, and the pace of selling has continued in recent weeks.
Several Bitcoin mining companies, including The Pheonix Group and Sangha Renewables, have adopted renewable energy solutions to power their operations and remain competitive amid a challenging business environment.
Canaan, a mining hardware manufacturer and mining company, partnered with Soluna in September to deploy a wind-powered BTC mining facility at the Briscoe, Texas site.
Related: AI may already use more power than Bitcoin — and it threatens Bitcoin mining
Polymarket traders now put a 65% chance on WTI crude hitting $120 at some point in 2026, as Middle East tensions and supply fears drive a rapid repricing of oil risk.
Summary
- The Polymarket market on WTI crude reaching $120 in 2026 has seen its implied probability jump to 65%, up 25 percentage points over 24 hour.
- The contract resolves “yes” if any one-minute candle high of the active WTI futures month in 2026 trades at or above $120; a prior market used CME’s year-end settlement price instead.
- ChainCatcher reports that Polymarket will keep monitoring flows in the oil markets and updating pricing as conditions change.
Prediction platform Polymarket is currently assigning a 65% chance that WTI crude oil futures will trade at $120 per barrel at some point in 2026, with the market’s probability having climbed 25 percentage points in the past 24 hours and 10 points in the last hour. That repricing comes against a backdrop of WTI futures trading around $106 per barrel after a more than 6% daily move, as escalating Middle East tensions and fears of supply disruption outweigh the impact of scheduled OPEC+ production increases.
The specific market — “What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in April 2026?” — resolves on an intraday high rather than a closing level, using one-minute candles for the active month WTI futures contract. Under the rules, the market will resolve to “yes” if, at any point during the 2026 period, any one-minute candle for the active WTI month prints a high at or above $120; otherwise, it resolves “no,” with fallback to official daily highs from CME if oracle data is unavailable.
Polymarket’s earlier WTI contracts, including a “Will Crude Oil (CL) hit by end of March?” market, were tied to the official settlement price of the near-month futures on the last trading day of the period. In those structures, a “yes” outcome required the CME settlement price to be at or above the strike level on expiry, a stricter condition than a single intraday spike.
By contrast, the new $120 market pays out if WTI touches the threshold at any moment in the year, making it more sensitive to short-lived volatility and headline-driven spikes. That shift aligns the oil market with other Polymarket structures that key off one-minute candles, reflecting the platform’s move toward higher-frequency oracle data for commodities and macro assets.
The jump to a 65% implied probability that WTI will hit $120 mirrors a broader repricing of oil risk across prediction venues and derivatives. Analysis of crude oil markets shows that traders now see elevated odds of WTI breaking into triple digits and sustaining high volatility, with probabilities for $95 and $100 per barrel also rising alongside volume and open interest at higher strikes.
ChainCatcher reported that Polymarket plans to continue monitoring flows and adjusting odds as new information on supply, geopolitics, and demand comes in, underscoring how quickly real‑money prediction markets can react to macro shocks. For macro traders, the contract offers a clean way to express views on whether war risk and supply constraints will push WTI from today’s ~$106 area to $120 or beyond before 2026 is over.
‘Succession’ star Brian Cox narrates new film exposing controversial gannet hunt – watch here
Bud is getting 13cr to yawn in the dugout
Dell’s new 14-inch Pro Premium delivers workstation-level performance in a surprisingly lightweight and travel-friendly package for busy executives
-
Business7 days agoInstagram, YouTube Found Responsible for Teen’s Mental Health Struggle in Historic Ruling
-
NewsBeat6 days agoThe Story hosts event on Durham’s historic registers
-
Sports6 days agoSweet Sixteen Game Thread: Tide vs Michigan
-
Entertainment3 days ago
Fans slam 'heartbreaking' Barbie Dream Fest convention debacle with 'cardboard cutout' experience
-
Entertainment5 days agoLana Del Rey Celebrates Her Husband’s 51st Birthday In New Post
-
Crypto World2 days ago
Dems press CFTC, ethics board on prediction-market insider trades
-
Crypto World21 hours agoGold Price Prediction: Worst Month in 17 Years fo Save Haven Rock
-
Tech4 days agoThe Pixel 10a doesn’t have a camera bump, and it’s great
-
Sports2 days agoTallest college basketball player ever, standing at 7-foot-9, entering transfer portal
-
Tech2 days agoEE TV is using AI to help you find something to watch
-
Fashion5 days agoAmazon Sundays: Soft Spring Layers
-
Tech3 days agoApple will hide your email address from apps and websites, but not cops
-
Tech2 days agoHow to back up your iPhone & iPad to your Mac before something goes wrong
-
Politics3 days agoShould Trump Be Scared Strait?
-
Tech3 days agoFlipsnack and the shift toward motion-first business content with living visuals
-
Crypto World3 days agoU.S. rule change may open trillions in 401(k) funds to crypto
-
Business7 days agoChinese universities with military links bought Super Micro servers with restricted AI chips
-
Fashion6 days agoWeekly News Update, 3.27.26 – Corporette.com
-
Tech4 days agoElon Musk’s last co-founder reportedly leaves xAI
-
Crypto World4 days agoBitcoin’s Six-Month Losing Streak: What On-Chain Data Says About the Market’s Next Move
You must be logged in to post a comment Login