With crypto winter clearly having set in, bulls are now left looking for signs that the bearishness has become so embedded that a bottom might form.

One case in point might be a note from Canaccord’s Joseph Vafi on Wednesday, slashing his price target on Strategy (MSTR) by a whopping 61% to $185 from $474.

Vafi, who lifted his outlook on Strategy as recently as November (to that $474 level), still maintains a buy rating on the stock, and his new $185 target suggests about 40% upside from last night’s close of $133.

Strategy is now down 15% year-to-date, 62% year-over-year, and 72% from its record high in November 2024.

Bitcoin, said Vafi, is in the midst of an “identity crisis,” still fitting the profile of a long-term store of value but increasingly trading like a risk asset. That tension came into focus during October’s crypto flash crash, when forced liquidations accelerated selling.

Though frequently cast as “digital gold,” bitcoin has failed to keep pace with the recent surge in precious metals, he continued. As gold has climbed on geopolitical tensions and macro uncertainty, bitcoin has lagged, underscoring its ongoing dependence on liquidity and risk appetite rather than safe-haven demand.

Strategy is built to weather volatility, the report said. The company holds more than $44 billion in bitcoin against roughly $8 billion in convertible debt, including a $1 billion tranche puttable in 2027 that remains in the money. Preferred dividends are manageable through modest share issuance, even with MSTR’s market cap no longer commanding much of a premium to the value of its BTC holdings.

Quarterly results are coming this week, but they have become largely immaterial given Strategy’s near-complete dependence on BTC, Vafi continued. A sizable unrealized loss tied to bitcoin’s fourth-quarter selloff is expected.

Vafi’s new $185 target assumes a 20% rebound in bitcoin prices and a recovery in the company’s mNAV to about 1.25x.

Read more: ETF that feasts on carnage in bitcoin-holder Strategy hits record high

As the BTC/USD chart shows, prices dropped below $74,000 yesterday. This marks the lowest level since November 2024, when the cryptocurrency was rallying on news of Trump’s election victory.

At the same time, sentiment indicators are signalling “extreme fear” across the market. This was reinforced by the break below the key April 2025 low near $74,450.

The media has been circulating increasingly alarming headlines:
→ Michael Burry, well known for his bearish calls, has suggested that a drop below the $70k level could create problems for the largest coin holder, MicroStrategy (MSTR);
→ Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, warns that the market may be heading for a “full-blown” crypto winter rather than a simple correction.

Technical Analysis of the BTC/USD Chart

The price continues to move further away from the support level whose break we highlighted on 30 January.

At the same time, the market appears extremely oversold:
→ the price has fallen below the lower boundary of the previously drawn descending red channel;
→ the RSI indicator is forming bullish divergences.

Under these conditions, it is reasonable to assume that the market may be setting up for a technical rebound. This scenario looks particularly plausible given the scale of long position liquidations — around $2.5 billion were wiped out on 31 January alone.

If a recovery does unfold, a key test of bullish intent will be the psychological $80k area, where bears previously held clear control while breaking below the lower boundary of the descending channel.

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A survey of senior crypto investors and executives suggests capital priorities are shifting away from decentralized finance (DeFi) and toward core infrastructure, as decision-makers focus on liquidity constraints and market plumbing. 

The findings come from a new report published by the digital asset conference CfC St. Moritz, based on responses from 242 attendees of its invitation-only event in January. Respondents included institutional investors, founders, C-suite executives, regulators and family office representatives. 

According to the survey, 85% of respondents selected infrastructure as their top funding priority, ahead of DeFi, compliance, cybersecurity and user experience. 

While expectations for revenue growth and innovation remain broadly positive, respondents flagged liquidity shortages as the industry’s most pressing risk. The results suggest that investor interest remains, but capital deployment is becoming more selective.

Infrastructure takes priority as liquidity concerns persist

Respondents pointed to market depth and settlement capacity as key bottlenecks preventing larger pools of institutional capital from entering crypto markets. 

About 84% of respondents described the macroeconomic backdrop as better than neutral for crypto growth, though many said existing market infrastructure remains insufficient for large-scale capitalization.

The survey also showed a change in innovation expectations. While a majority expects innovation to accelerate in 2026, fewer respondents anticipate a sharp increase compared to last year, suggesting a shift away from more speculative expectations toward execution-focused development.

This shift aligns with broader industry trends, including a focus on custody, clearing, stablecoin infrastructure and tokenization frameworks rather than consumer-facing applications. 

Related: CoreWeave shows how crypto-era infrastructure quietly became AI’s backbone

US sentiment improves as IPO expectations cool

The survey found a sharp improvement in perceptions of the US regulatory environment, with respondents ranking the country as the second-most favorable jurisdiction for digital assets, behind the United Arab Emirates. 

CfC St. Moritz attributed the shift to stablecoin legislation and clearer rules for banks and regulated market participants. 

At the same time, expectations for crypto initial public offerings cooled after what respondents described as a record year in 2025. While most still expect listings to continue, fewer expressed high confidence, citing valuation resets and liquidity constraints.