Golden State Warriors superstar Stephen Curry is expected to make his long-awaited return from a nagging right knee injury when the team hosts the Houston Rockets on Sunday, April 6, 2026, ending a 27-game absence that has tested the franchise’s playoff hopes and forced the 38-year-old point guard to confront a “new normal” with his body.
Curry, who last played on Jan. 30 against the Detroit Pistons, has been sidelined since then with patellofemoral pain syndrome accompanied by bone bruising in his right knee. The injury, often described as “runner’s knee,” sidelined him for more than two months, during which the Warriors struggled to a 9-18 record without their franchise icon. With Curry averaging 27.2 points per game prior to the injury, his absence left a massive void in Golden State’s offense and leadership.
The latest update comes after encouraging developments in recent days. On April 1, the Warriors announced Curry had participated in a live 5-on-5 scrimmage, marking a significant step in his return-to-play protocol. He was scheduled for another scrimmage later in the week and underwent re-evaluation over the weekend. Multiple reports, including from ESPN’s Shams Charania and Anthony Slater, indicated Curry had set a personal goal to return against Houston, and coach Steve Kerr confirmed the plan was for him to play, albeit with minutes restrictions.
Kerr told reporters Saturday that Curry would be listed as questionable but that the intention was clear: “The plan is for him to play.” The coach added that Curry would likely see limited action — around 20-25 minutes — in his first game back, coming off the bench to ease him into game action. “We’ll see how he recovers tomorrow,” Kerr said, emphasizing the collaboration between Curry, director of sports medicine and performance Rick Celebrini, and the medical staff.
Curry himself addressed the media after practice, sounding optimistic yet realistic. “Feels great,” he said of his knee. “There’s nothing structurally wrong with my knee, so it’s not like I’m in danger of making it worse long-term.” He acknowledged the lengthy rehabilitation process and the need to adjust expectations. “I kind of understand what the new normal is, and it’s good enough to play,” Curry added, noting he hoped the positive feeling would persist.
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The injury saga began in late January when Curry aggravated the knee issue during a game against the Phoenix Suns. Initially described as a minor setback, it quickly became evident that the problem required extended rest and conservative management. Warriors medical staff opted against rushing him back, prioritizing long-term health over short-term gains in a season where Golden State hovered near the play-in tournament threshold in the competitive Western Conference.
Without Curry, the Warriors relied heavily on a revamped supporting cast that included acquisitions like Jimmy Butler III and contributions from younger players. Draymond Green, Klay Thompson’s successor in the backcourt rotation, and emerging talents stepped up, but the team’s offensive efficiency and spacing suffered noticeably. Golden State’s record without Curry highlighted just how central the two-time MVP remains to the franchise’s identity, even at age 38.
The return timing is critical. With roughly two weeks left in the regular season, the Warriors are fighting for positioning in the Western Conference play-in tournament. A healthy Curry could dramatically shift their outlook, providing the shooting gravity, playmaking and clutch scoring that defined their dynasty years. Kerr has emphasized that any return must include a proper ramp-up period rather than a desperate insertion for the final games or play-in. “We’re not bringing him back just for the play-in game,” Kerr said earlier in the week. “He needs to play some games, and we need to give him a runway if this is going to work.”
Curry’s own comments reflected a mix of eagerness and caution. He spoke of wanting to contribute immediately while understanding the physical realities of his age and the injury. “I love playing basketball,” he said simply, underscoring the motivation that has driven his remarkable career. Teammates have echoed that sentiment. Green, who has leaned on Curry for leadership during the absence, reportedly received encouragement from the star during his own recovery periods. The mutual support within the veteran core has been a quiet strength for the franchise amid adversity.
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Medical experts outside the organization note that patellofemoral pain syndrome can be persistent in older athletes, particularly those with high-volume shooting mechanics like Curry. The condition involves irritation behind the kneecap and can be exacerbated by repetitive stress. Bone bruising adds another layer of caution, as it requires time for healing to prevent long-term cartilage damage. Curry’s medical team has reportedly used a combination of rest, physical therapy, anti-inflammatory measures and progressive loading to rebuild strength and confidence.
The broader context of Curry’s career makes this latest chapter compelling. At 38, he is no longer the transcendent young phenom who revolutionized the game with his shooting range, but he remains one of the NBA’s most impactful players when healthy. His career three-point record, playoff heroics and four championships — including the 2022 title run — have cemented his legacy. Yet questions about longevity have grown as he enters the twilight of his prime. This knee issue, while not structurally catastrophic, serves as a reminder that even the greatest athletes must adapt to the physical toll of a long career.
Fan reaction has been overwhelmingly positive to the return news. Dub Nation, the Warriors’ passionate supporter base, has flooded social media with excitement, sharing highlights from Curry’s pre-injury performances and expressing hope that his presence can spark a late-season surge. Ticket sales for Sunday’s game against the Rockets reportedly surged after the update, reflecting the star power Curry still commands.
For the Rockets, the matchup presents a challenging test. Houston has enjoyed a strong season and will face a Warriors team suddenly energized by Curry’s return. Rockets coach Ime Udoka acknowledged the threat, saying any version of Curry demands special defensive attention. “Even with minutes restrictions, he changes the game,” Udoka said. “His gravity alone opens things up for everyone else.”
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Warriors general manager Mike Dunleavy Jr. has been cautiously optimistic throughout the recovery process. The front office’s decision to prioritize long-term health over short-term roster moves has drawn mixed reviews, but the potential payoff of a healthy Curry in the play-in or playoffs could validate the approach. Golden State’s veteran core — Curry, Green, Butler and others — still believes it has championship DNA if health aligns.
Looking ahead, Curry’s return will be managed carefully. The Warriors are expected to monitor his workload closely in the final stretch of the regular season, potentially limiting him to targeted minutes while gradually increasing his role. If the knee responds well, he could play a pivotal part in any postseason run, however brief it might be. Should setbacks occur, the organization has signaled it would err on the side of caution rather than risk a more serious injury that could impact future seasons.
The injury has also sparked broader conversations about player load management in today’s NBA. With longer seasons, more back-to-backs and the physical demands of modern play, veterans like Curry face unique challenges. Some analysts argue that teams must become even more sophisticated in monitoring and protecting star players, while others point to the success of load-management strategies employed by contenders.
Curry’s personal approach to the setback has drawn praise. Known for his work ethic and positive demeanor, he has used the time away to focus on family, recovery and mentoring younger teammates. His leadership off the court has been credited with helping maintain team morale during a difficult stretch.
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As Sunday’s game approaches, all eyes will be on Chase Center. Whether Curry plays 20 minutes or more, his mere presence on the floor is expected to lift Golden State’s performance and energize the crowd. For a franchise that has ridden Curry’s brilliance through multiple eras, this return represents more than just one game — it symbolizes resilience, adaptation and the enduring hope that the Splash Brother can still author memorable moments.
The Warriors’ season has been defined by injury adversity, but Curry’s comeback offers a narrative of perseverance. As he steps back onto the court, the basketball world will watch closely to see how the greatest shooter of all time navigates his latest physical challenge. For now, the focus remains on a measured, successful return that prioritizes both short-term contribution and long-term health.
With the regular season winding down and the play-in tournament looming, Curry’s availability could prove the difference between an early summer and extended postseason drama. Golden State fans, long accustomed to miracles from their star, are once again daring to dream that one more magical run might be possible.
GB News has made a bold bid for access to the public purse, arguing that government broadcasting grants should be opened up to competitive tender rather than flowing automatically to the BBC.
The loss-making news channel, backed by hedge fund financier Sir Paul Marshall, set out its case in a submission to the government’s consultation on the BBC’s royal charter. At its heart is a call for “contestable funding”, a mechanism that would allow broadcasters beyond the traditional public service operators to bid for taxpayer-backed support.
The BBC’s World Service is the most obvious target. Once funded entirely by Whitehall, the service now draws primarily on the licence fee but still receives grants from the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office worth £137 million last year. GB News believes it should be eligible to compete for a share of that pot, assessed on criteria including quality, audience reach and value for money.
It is a striking proposition from an organisation that has accumulated losses exceeding £100 million since launching in 2021, and one that is unlikely to find a warm reception at Broadcasting House. GB News framed the argument in the language of market competition, contending that opening funding to tender would drive innovation and encourage what it called “diversity of thought and content”.
The channel pointed to precedent. Between 2019 and 2022, two pilot schemes, the Young Audiences Content Fund and the Audio Content Fund, distributed £48 million across a range of broadcasters and independent producers. GB News also drew attention to New Zealand’s NZ On Air model, which allocates public money to a variety of media outlets, suggesting a similar framework could bolster plurality in Britain’s broadcasting landscape.
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The submission to the charter review is part of a broader lobbying campaign. In a separate filing with Ofcom, GB News made a parallel case for contestable funding. It is also pressing for prominence rights currently enjoyed only by the established public service broadcasters, the BBC, ITV, Channel 4, Channel 5 and S4C, which guarantee their channels favourable positioning on television sets, albeit in return for strict obligations around regional production and news output.
Whether the government has any appetite for redirecting public funds towards a commercially owned, politically divisive broadcaster remains to be seen. But GB News’s intervention ensures the question of who qualifies as a public service provider, and who should pay for it, will sit squarely at the centre of the charter debate.
Amy Ingham
Amy is a newly qualified journalist specialising in business journalism at Business Matters with responsibility for news content for what is now the UK’s largest print and online source of current business news.
The winners of the HR in Wales Awards will be revealed in May
Winners of the 2025 HR in Wales Awards
Businesses and organisations across Wales have been recognised for their outstanding HR and people development practices with the announcement of the shortlist for the second ever HR in Wales awards.
Launched by Lesley Richards, independent HR consultant and former head of the CIPD in Wales, in 2025 with support from industry experts Louise Price (Hugh James), Mera Mann (Human Resourcing), and Paul Harris (Skylite Associates), the HR in Wales awards will celebrate the achievements of HR and people development professionals across Wales with a special lunchtime ceremony.
This year’s awards will take place at the Marriott Hotel, Cardiff on May 1st and will be hosted by former Wales international Alex Cuthbert.
Building on the success of last year’s ceremony, 98 businesses, teams and individuals entered across nine categories, with a shortlist of 53 going forward for judging. The shortlist reflects the achievements of a range of organisations, both large and small, during a year shaped by ongoing economic uncertainty, global challenges and a rapidly changing talent landscape.
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Finalists for 2026 include: Atradius, Cwm Taf Morgannwg University Health Board, Bangor University, S4C, St John Ambulance Cymru, Welsh Local Government Association, Valleys to Coast, Freshwater and last year’s Learning and Development winner, Mrs Buckét Cleaning Services.
Commenting on finalists, Ms Richards, said: “We are very proud to host the second HR in Wales Awards ceremony and those who show what great HR looks like in practice. The competition this year has been fierce, with an impressive number of entries in the Transformation and Change category in particular.
“After what’s been such a challenging year for so many businesses it’s so incredible to see employers respond to economic uncertainty and turn it into an opportunity to strengthen their workforce and streamline operations. People are at the heart of what we do in HR and people development and The HR in Wales a shortlist truly is a reflection of the life-changing work being done here in Wales.”.
The shortlisted finalists:
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Equality, Diversity and Inclusion
Bangor University.
Cardiff Community Housing Association.
LBS Builders Merchants.
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Valleys to Coast.
WJEC CBAC.
Employee Engagement
Atradius.
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Cartrefi Cymru Cooperative.
Cwm Taf Morgannwg University Health Board.
Health Education and Improvement Wales.
HPMA Cymru.
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Rocialle Healthcare.
Learning and Development
Cardiff Community Housing Association.
Cwm Taf Morgannwg University Health Board.
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HPMA Cymru.
S4C.
Sweetmans and Partners with Sero.
Siderise.
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Transformation and Change
Codi Group.
Health Education and Improvement Wales.
Mrs Buckét Cleaning Services.
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Rhondda Cynon Taf County Borough Council.
S4C.
St John Ambulance Cymru.
WCVA.
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Talent Management
Bipsync.
Freshwater.
St John Ambulance Cymru.
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Welsh Local Government Association.
Wellbeing
Codi Group.
Creditsafe Business Solutions.
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Cwm Taf Morganwwg University Health Board.
First Choice Housing Association.
Freshwater.
Individual Impact
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Sian Fisher – Confident Style Academy.
Emma del Torto – Effective HRM.
Universal Coaching Alliance Wales.
Ann Rowley – Lighthouse HR.
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Gemma Littlejohns – Siderise.
Rosie Sweetman – Sweetmans and Partners with Williams Medical Supplies
Dr Ioan Rees – SYCOL
Rising Star
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Alex Davies – Siderise.
Emily Summerhayes – Cwm Taf Morgannwg University Health Board.
Harry Underhill – Creditsafe.
Jen Walters – Principality Building Society.
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Sadie Govier – Cardiff Airport.
Sophie Cole – ACT Training.
Tammi Jones – Effective HRM.
Toni Louise Davies – HMPA Cymru / NHS Wales.
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Excellence in HR leadership
Angela Overment – St John Ambulance Cymru.
Angie Lewis – Welsh Ambulances Services Trust.
Kate Ablett – Mrs Bucket.
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Nadine Beacon – S4C.
Simon Argent – Vishay Newport.
The HR in Wales Awards are supported by Hugh James, Vester Group, Human Resourcing, Lesley Richards Limited, Skylite Associates, HSF Health Plan, ALS/ACT, Monmouthshire Building Society, Welsh Government, Hoop Professional Services and HR, and the CIPD.
As the fuel crisis continues along with the Iran war, Energy Minister Chris Bowen has assured that fuel shipments have been secured “well into May.”
However, an economist has raised the alarm regarding the fuel situation, calling for Australia to be more self-sufficient when it comes to fuel.
Fuel Shipments Secured ‘Well Into May’
According to a report by ABC News, Bowen has assured the public that the government has been hard at work to ensure that enough supplies for May will be secured.
“All the orders are locked in and contracted,” said Bowen. “Once it’s contracted, the fuel belongs to the Australian company that’s bought it … that is legally locked in, so that’s encouraging.”
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He added, “Of course, there is a risk in international circumstance and [the] international situation, but every step that can be taken is being taken.”
Bowen previously disclosed that 53 ships carrying fuel are now on the way to Australia from different countries in Asia, as well as the United States and Mexico.
‘Wake Up Call for Australia’
Despite the promising developments, an economist is urging Australia to do more amid the ongoing crisis.
According to Sky News, MST Financial energy analyst Saul Kavonic went as far to say that Australia “ceded our fuel security to foreign powers.”
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“This is a wake up call for Australia to become more self-sufficient in fuel again. The next disruption to maritime trade could occur closer to home in the Pacific, leaving Australia without any fuel, and our economy would grind to a halt within weeks,” said Kavonic.
“Australia must act to avert the economic and national security risks posed by our fuel import dependence,” he added.
Addressing the calls to turn to renewable sources of energy, Kavonic pointed out that “renewables are simply not practical to replace jet fuel and diesel at this time.”
Shares of RBL Bank surged nearly 4% on Monday after a strong Q4 business update and Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) approval for up to 74% stake acquisition by Dubai-headquartered Emirates NBD Bank (PJSC).
Shares of the lender jumped to Rs 312.70 apiece in the morning trading hours of Monday, the highest level in more than a month. The sharp surge added more than Rs 720 crore to the total market capitalisation of the company, pulling it higher up to rise above Rs 19,310 crore.
In an exchange filing released on Thursday, RBL Bank said that the RBI has approved Emirates NBD Bank to acquire up to 74% stake in the lender. After the completion of the stake sale, the Dubai-based bank will become a promoter holder, crossing the 51% threshold as per the RBI’s conditions. The lender has no promoter, currently. The private lender, meanwhile, will be classified as a foreign bank operating in wholly owned subsidiary (WOS) mode, with Emirates NBD as its parent. RBI’s approval is now valid for one year.
The approval was communicated via a letter dated April 1, 2026, ET had earlier reported, citing sources. The report said that an approval from the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) is also expected soon.
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RBL Bank Q4 business update
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RBL Bank on Thursday released its provisional business update for the fourth quarter of the financial year 2026. The lender’s total deposits rose 25% year-on-year (YoY) to Rs 1.39 lakh crore in Q4 FY26, from 1.11 lakh crore in the corresponding quarter of the previous financial year. Sequentially, total deposits grew 16% QoQ from Rs 1.2 lakh crore in Q3 FY26. Gross advances meanwhile increased 22% YoY and 11% QoQ to Rs 1.15 lakh crore during the quarter under review. RBL Bank’s CASA (current account and savings account) deposits grew 23% YoY to Rs 46,723 crore, while CASA ratio stood at 33.6% in Q4 FY26, slightly lower than 34.1% in the same period of the previous year. Also read: Earnings downgrade alert: How $110 crude and Iran war are threatening India Inc’s double-digit dream
RBL Bank’s deposits worth under Rs 3 crore grew 16% YoY to Rs 63,943 crore, while the average liquidity coverage ratio stood at 130%, lower than 133% recorded in Q4 FY25. The bank said that its total business crossed Rs 2.5 lakh crore at the end of the quarter, marking a 24% YoY increase from Q4 FY25.
Secured retail advances grew 36% YoY and 17% QoQ. Retail advances rose 18% YoY and 10% QoQ, while unsecured retail advances grew 2% QoQ. Wholesale advances grew 27% YoY. Within wholesale, commercial banking advances grew 29% YoY. The mix of retail: wholesale advances was reported at approximately 59:41.
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Motilal Oswal on RBL Bank’s Q4 update
Motilal Oswal Financial Services said that RBL Bank’s exceptional growth of 22% YoY in gross advances is fairly higher than its estimate of 16%. It noted that deposits also witnessed exceptional growth of 25% YoY, significantly higher than its estimate of 12.2%.
“RBL reported remarkable business growth, led by both advances as well as deposits growth,” it said, maintaining its ‘Buy’ call on the stock.
RBL Bank shares have gained more than 8% in the past week, and over 3% in the past month. In the longer term, the stock has surged 78% in one year, and more than 118% in three years.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
I have been a Merchant Seaman that has traveled the world for over 30 years. Within the last 15 years, I developed a very intense interest in investing. I learned a lot of what I know about investing from The MF. Also because I have a engineering background, I often tend to gravitate to Tech stocks
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
The Thai Meteorological Department has warned of hot to extremely hot conditions across Thailand from April 4–9, 2026, with temperatures reaching up to 42°C, accompanied by hazy skies and isolated thunderstorms.
Key Points
Temperatures in upper Thailand (North, Northeast, Central, Bangkok) are expected to reach 36–42°C during the day, driven by a heat-induced low-pressure system.
Hazy conditions are forecast across most regions during the day, with residents in the North, Northeast, and upper Central regions advised to wear N95 masks outdoors.
Thunderstorms and gusty winds are expected in scattered areas despite the extreme heat, with some rainfall (10–20% coverage) forecast from April 7–9.
Bangkok temperatures will range from 26–28°C at night to 35–41°C during the day, with southerly winds at 10–15 km/h.
Southern Thailand will see isolated thunderstorms with wave heights around one metre, rising higher during storms.
Mariners have been advised to avoid sailing in storm-affected areas of the Gulf of Thailand and Andaman Sea.
Residents are urged to avoid prolonged outdoor activities due to health risks from the extreme heat.
Why It Matters
The Thai Meteorological Department has issued a heat warning from today until April 9. Many areas in Thailand could see temperatures exceed 42°C, along with hazy skies during the day.
Upper Thailand will be affected by a heat-induced low-pressure system, resulting in widespread high temperatures and reduced visibility. Weak southerly and westerly winds are also contributing to unstable weather, leading to potential thunderstorms and gusty winds in certain areas.
The combination of record-level heat, poor air quality from haze, and unpredictable storms poses significant health and safety risks across Thailand as the country moves deeper into its hot season.
Prolonged exposure to extreme heat can lead to heat-related illnesses, while deteriorating air quality contributes to respiratory issues, particularly among vulnerable populations such as children, the elderly, and those with pre-existing conditions. Additionally, the unpredictability of storms raises concerns about sudden flooding, property damage, and disruptions to daily life, highlighting the urgent need for comprehensive disaster preparedness and sustainable environmental policies to mitigate these growing risks.
BofA Securities has slashed its earnings growth forecast on Monday for India’s benchmark Nifty 50 companies for fiscal year 2027 to 8.5%, down from 14% projected before the Iran conflict, citing rising stagflation risks.
Brent crude prices hovering near $110 per barrel could strain India’s import bill, given its position as the world’s third-largest crude importer, and put pressure on corporate margins.
Here are some details:
* In its base case, BofA assumes crude prices at $92.5 per barrel and has lowered India’s FY27 GDP growth estimate to 6.5% from 7.4% earlier * In a worst-case scenario involving a prolonged Middle East conflict, GDP growth can slide to 3%, while earnings growth may drop to zero in fiscal year 2027
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* The Nifty 50 index is currently trading close to long-term average valuations. A potential resolution to the Iran conflict could trigger a 15% upside ** BofA, however, expects the index to continue underperforming its emerging market peers due to relatively expensive valuations ** The brokerage has set Nifty target for December-end at 26,200, compared with its current level of 22,663 ** The brokerage projected opportunities within large-caps and select themes in broader market after correction
** Downgrades rate-sensitive sectors like mid-sized private banks, non-bank lenders, real estate, and automobile companies to “underweight” from “overweight” earlier
** BofA prefers energy- and rate-hike beneficiaries such as large private sector banks and state-owned lenders
I am a chemical engineer with a MS in Food Technology and Economics, and a MENSA member. I am the author of the book “Investing in Stocks and Bonds: The Early Retirement Project” (2024):I am also the author of the book “Mental Math: How to perform math calculations in your mind”.I am also the author of 2 other mathematics books (“Arithmetic calculations without a calculator” and “Word Problems”) and perform almost all the calculations in my mind, without a calculator, making it easier to make immediate investing decisions among many alternatives. I invest applying fundamental and technical analysis and mainly use options as a tool for both investing and trading. I achieved my goal of financial independence at the age of 45. In my spare time, I follow Warren Buffett’s principle: “Some men read playboy. I read financial statements”.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
I believe that more money can be made by buying high and selling at even higher prices. I take exception to the idea of buying low and selling high – Richard Driehaus, the father of momentum investing
Preface
Allow me to start by stating unequivocally that I am not a dedicated momentum investor. Nor am I a dedicated value investor. In fact, if you want to put a label on me, I am probably best described as a thematic investor. I believe in certain themes (aka megatrends) taking control of the world we live in and, if you can identify and invest correctly in those themes, it actually makes little difference whether the companies you end up investing in can best be described as one or the other.
In last month’s Absolute Return Letter – How (Not) to Value Equities – which you can find here , I made the point that momentum investors shouldn’t be overly concerned about the point I made, i.e. that the returns on U.S. equities over the next decade are likely to fall dramatically short of the returns we have gotten used to in recent years.
I have had a few comments and questions on the back of that argument. It is therefore only natural that I elaborate on the point I made. What do I really mean when I say that momentum investors shouldn’t pay too much attention to how expensive markets are? And which signals do I use to detect when, suddenly, it isn’t irrelevant anymore? In this month’s Absolute Return Letter, I will dig deeper on those two questions.
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A bit of history
I am old enough to remember the boom and bust in Japan in the late 1980s and early 1990s and, likewise, the dotcom boom and bust in the U.S. some ten years later. I think of those two incidents virtually every day, as I remind myself of not falling into the same trap again.
Momentum investors had a feast in Japan in the late 1980s, and they enjoyed it no less in USA a decade later. I was the new kid on the block in Copenhagen when Nationalbanken (the Central Bank of Denmark), in January 1984, relaxed the rules to do with investing abroad. For the first time ever, ordinary Danes were allowed to invest in non-Danish equities.
Coincidentally, the ‘party’ in Japan started at about the same time. Day after day, and with few questions asked, clients filled their pockets with Japan equities. A new generation of momentum investors had been born. About ten years later, the story repeated itself although, this time, it was all about a new phenomenon we hardly understood. Those who did, called it the internet . Again, momentum investors made fortunes on companies we had never heard of before.
Everything was fine until, suddenly, it wasn’t. In Japan, the party ended abruptly in 1990 due to a combination of government policy tightening and structural weaknesses in Japan’s financial system which had been exposed. Ten years later, in USA, the story broadly repeated itself. A worried Fed had increased the policy rate no less than six times between the summer of 1999 and the spring of 2000, and, suddenly, financial markets snapped.
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However, the point I want to make is a different one. At least two years before the party ended, both in Japan and in USA, you could have made exactly the same argument. Take for example the dotcom boom. Had you invested exclusively in the Nasdaq index to participate in the boom (as a dedicated momentum investor would have done) but sold it all at the end of 1997, as somebody had told you valuations were now ridiculous (as they were), you would have missed +40% in 1998 and +86% in 1999. In other words, exiting prematurely is associated with significant career risk.
Exhibit 1a: S&P 500 momentum relative to S&P 500 since 1972
Source: Bloomberg
Exhibit 1b: MSCI World momentum relative to MSCI World since 1972
Source: Bloomberg
Take a quick look at the charts above. As you can see, in the US (Exhibit 1a), momentum investing has enjoyed a fabulous 54 years since 1972. Only in the first few years after the dotcom bust in 2000 did momentum investors significantly underperform; however, over the entire period, momentum investors have performed dramatically better than index investors – by a factor 5x.
The picture is modestly different in Exhibit 1b (global equities). In the first three decades, momentum actually underperformed; however, since the early 2000s, momentum investors have outperformed index investors when investing globally and, over the entire period, they have outperformed by a factor 3x.
The father of momentum investing in a few words
Richard Driehaus, who unexpectedly died in 2021, is widely recognised as the father of momentum investing. He identified and bought stocks when they have strong upward price momentum and held on to them, as long as the momentum continued. He focused on small- and mid-cap companies with accelerating earnings growth and emphasised companies that are capable of delivering significant, positive earnings surprises.
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Key to his success was his ability to hold on to his winners whilst quickly getting rid of his losers – something we could all learn from. Another key was his willingness to diversify during bad times and to concentrate his holdings during good times. He had four key metrics he followed religiously:
positive earnings surprises;
sharp upwards revisions in consensus earnings estimates;
accelerating earnings & sales; and
very strong, consistent and sustained earnings growth.
Even better if the earnings growth was not only year-on-year but also sequential; however, of the four metrics, Driehaus probably assigned most value to #1. If you want to learn more about the methodology conducted by Richard Driehaus, I suggest you read this 2021 article in Forbes Magazine .
What have I learned so far and what can I learn?
In terms of how to deal with seemingly overvalued equity markets, by far the most important lesson I have learnt from a long career in the industry is that booms don’t turn to busts just because equities are overvalued. A catalyst shall be required. As I pointed out earlier, in the two incidents mentioned in this month’s letter, aggressive monetary tightening did the trick.
That said, the U.S. monetary policy regime has changed since the late 1990s; the focus is no longer on inflation only. Adding to that, U.S. households own colossal amounts of equities. It would take a man with nerves of steel to end this party. Furthermore, the current tenant of the White House is (i) addicted to debt and (ii) prepared to fire FOMC members who don’t dance to his tune. All of this means that the current (seemingly illogical) behaviour can continue for much longer than most of us expect, and that the catalyst, when it eventually arrives, will most likely be something we hadn’t thought of.
This doesn’t imply you shouldn’t take your precautions. In last month’s Absolute Return Letter, I listed five particular lines of action we have taken to take risk out of our portfolio. We:
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1. significantly reduced our exposure to U.S. equities, the most expensive on Earth;
2. didn’t go into cash but instead increased our exposure to Europe, Canada, Japan and China;
3. significantly lowered the equity beta in our portfolio;
4. increased the exposure to certain commodities (mostly industrial metals); and we
5. bought gold.
Looking forward, what is the most important danger signal that I look out for? There are obviously many – financial magazines putting a big story on the front page is always a good contrarian indicator – but one stands out to me. Going back to momentum investing and Richard Driehaus, when investors start to react negatively
unless the positive earnings surprise is substantial, all the red lamps start flashing in my office. Unfortunately, I have seen a few of those in recent weeks. Now, one swallow doesn’t make a summer, but it is an indicator I follow keenly, and I will strongly suggest you do the same.
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