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2026 March Madness picks: Predictions against the spread, odds for NCAA Tournament championship game Monday

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The final game of the 2026 NCAA Tournament has arrived, and the college basketball world will set its sights on Indianapolis on Monday night for a fantastic finale as No. 1 seed Michigan takes on No. 2 seed UConn for the national championship. With 70 combined wins on the season, both teams have been among the top picks to compete for a title throughout much of the season and now get 40 minutes to fulfill that destiny. 

For Dusty May and Michigan, a win would be a warning sign to the sport of what’s to come from the Wolverines under his watch. A Michigan program operating at peak efficiency can be among the most disruptive forces in a college basketball landscape that can often get familiar with its main characters. But teams like Houston, Florida, Duke, Arizona, Kansas or Purdue aren’t the ones still playing, and you get the feeling looking at how Michigan has navigated this quick turnaround under may that it has already jumped up into a tier to be taken seriously on a regular basis. A win would also snap a 26-year title drought for the Big Ten, which has not seen a current member win it all since Michigan State in 2000 (interestingly enough, in Indianapolis). 

But the one main character of college basketball who is still playing, and stands in the way of that break through for Michigan and the Big Ten, is UConn. 

Dan Hurley is pursuing his third ring in four years and the program is on the cusp of claiming its seventh national championship since 1999. That would leave UConn with the third-most titles all-time trailing only UCLA (11) and Kentucky (8). And it should be noted that the Huskies have won all seven of their championships since UCLA won its most recent in 1995. 

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Yet this UConn team which exemplifies elite performance in the NCAA Tournament finds itself as an underdog in the national title game, a stage where the Huskies have yet to lose. That speaks to the greatness of Michigan and how well-constructed, well-rounded and well-coached the Wolverines have been all season and in this tournament. 

The health status of key players for both teams threatened to throw a wrench into the matchup. Michigan star Yaxel Lendeborg was injured during the first half of the Wolverines’ national semifinal win against Arizona, but he returned to action and has indicated his plans to play in the title game after receiving treatment on his knee and ankle between games. UConn also has a major injury to note with Solo Ball suffering a foot injury in the win against Illinois. Ball was seen with a boot during media availability on Sunday, however neither player was listed on their school’s NCAA initial player availability report indicating thy will play in Monday’s game. For title contenders the phrase “next man up” becomes crucial to the pursuit of a title, but which team can get the most from its walking wounded or can supplement their production will have an edge in a game that could be decided at the margins. 

Now that the stage is set let’s get into the picks. Since we have been in the habit of offering multiple picks from full tournament slates in this series, there are going to be multiple angles to entertain for this single game left in the 2025-26 season. But in addition to thoughts on the spread and the total, we have included more a traditional approach with straight up and against the spread selections via our Expert Picks panel. 

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National Championship preview: Key trends to know ahead of the Michigan vs. UConn NCAA Tournament title clash

Isaac Trotter

National Championship preview: Key trends to know ahead of the Michigan vs. UConn NCAA Tournament title clash
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(1) Michigan vs. (2) UConn 

8:49 p.m. on TBS | March Madness Live 

The math says Michigan but the mood says UConn finds a way. The Huskies’ resilience through injuries and deficits throughout this tournament echoes the call of Dan Hurley for his teams to show the heart of a champion in the postseason. The Huskies are going to face a tough foe in Michigan’s front line, but they are coming into the game after facing another team with size in Illinois and passing the test. In fact, UConn’s tournament run has included three single-digit seeds from the Big Ten with Michigan being the fourth, and the Huskies had a strong showing defensively against all three teams. The key for UConn will be to get down into those final minutes within a couple of possessions, because if this pack of dogs smells blood they are going to be ready to deliver in crunch time. Michigan could win this thing by 10-15 points in a coronation moment for Dusty May and the Big Ten, but if it’s close I like the Huskies to not just cover the spread but close it out by cutting down nets. 

As for the total points scored, the trends do favor lower-scoring games by the time we get to Monday night’s national championship. The under has gone 6-2 in the last eight national title games, which might be as much of a reflection on late-round fatigue as it is the football stadium setting of the Final Four. But here the reasoning is focused far more on the matchup, where as we mentioned earlier UConn has had some great game plans and execution three of its last four tournament opponents and Michigan has been absolutely stifling in its recent wins against Tennessee in the Elite Eight and Arizona in the Final Four. Any kind of shooting regression for UConn from 3-point range will lower output after the Huskies knocked down 12 3-pointers against Illinois, and of course any limitation for Yaxel Lendeborg lowers Michigan’s offensive ceiling as well.    Picks: UConn ML +240, Under 144.5

 

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Cooper Flagg scores 45 points as Dallas Mavericks beat Los Angeles Lakers

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Teenage rookie Cooper Flagg continued his superb run of form by scoring 45 points as the Dallas Mavericks beat the Los Angeles Lakers 134-128 on Sunday.

The 19-year-old had made history on Saturday when he became the first teenager to score 50 points in an NBA game – finishing with 51 points, including 24 in the fourth quarter, in a defeat by the Orlando Magic.

He followed up with a 45-point haul in the win over the injury-hit Lakers, adding nine assists and eight rebounds.

Flagg is the first rookie with back-to-back 40-point games since Allen Iverson in 1997, and is among the favourites to be named this season’s rookie of the year.

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The Mavericks started quickly against the Lakers, who were missing both the NBA’s leading scorer Luka Doncic and rising star Austin Reaves, and were 41-30 up at the end of the first quarter.

LeBron James, 41, led the Lakers with 30 points, 15 assists and nine rebounds, while Luke Kennard had 15 points, 16 rebounds and 11 assists.

PJ Washington scored 15 points for the Mavericks, Naji Marshall and Brandon Williams added 13 points, and Klay Thompson scored three three-pointers in his 11-point haul.

Lakers coach JJ Redick it was a “just a poor defensive night” for his side, adding: “We didn’t start the game the right way and just played catch-up the rest of the game.”

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The Lakers are third in the Western Conference, with the 12th-placed Mavericks already out of play-off contention.

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Are we cursed?”;”Season is up in flames already

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The Toronto Blue Jays have been troubled by injuries to several key players at the start of the 2026 season. The list of injuries grew on Sunday night after outfielder Addison Barger’s exit from the series finale against the Chicago White Sox.

During the third inning of the game, Barger landed awkwardly as he ran through the first base for a close play. Barger stayed in the game for another at-bat in the sixth inning but was replaced in right field by Jesús Sánchez after the inning.

Fans reacted to the Blue Jays facing another injury concern.

“Jeez this season is up in flames already.”

Jeez this season is up in flames already

“Are we cursed?”

“Uncomfortable because he’s playing on a terrible team with a ridiculous payroll.”

Uncomfortable because he’s playing on a terrible team with a ridiculous payroll.

“Right now the way they’re playing they should remove everyone from the field. 🤨”

Right now the way they’re playing they should remove everyone from the field. 🤨

“I think the whole team has discomfort.”

@BlueJays I think the whole team has discomfort!

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Barger left the game due to discomfort in both ankles. He went 0-for-3 at the plate before his exit and the Blue Jays suffered a 3-0 defeat leading to a sweep by Chicago.

Blue Jays manager John Schneider updated on the outfielder’s injury after the series finale.

“He stepped a bit weird with both of them, one on the bag and one before,” Schneider said. “We taped him up and he tried to go. We’ll see how he is tomorrow. He’s about as tough as they come. Hopefully, he’s all right and it’s just a day or two, or maybe not even a day.”

Bargers is just 1-for-19 (.053) this season despite a strong showing in Spring Training last month. He hit 21 homers with a .756 OPS in 135 games last season.

Blue Jays manager fired warning shot ahead of Dodgers showdown

The Blue Jays have lost four consecutive games and are 4-5 for the season. They face the Los Angeles Dodgers next in a rematch of last year’s World Series. Blue Jays manager John Schneider warned his players ahead of the series opener against the defending champions.

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“We’ve got to get back to playing our baseball,” Schneider said. “It doesn’t matter who you’re playing, where you’re playing or what time you’re playing them, if you don’t play your baseball, good things don’t happen.”

The Dodgers have made a strong start to the season and are headed into the series after sweeping the Washington Nationals.