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Major airlines around the world have begun canceling thousands of flights and raising fares as jet fuel prices have more than doubled and physical supplies have tightened in the wake of the ongoing war in Iran and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

United Airlines became the first major U.S. carrier to announce capacity cuts, trimming about 5% of planned flights on less profitable routes. International carriers have moved more aggressively, with Scandinavian Airlines canceling around 1,000 flights in April, Air New Zealand axing 1,100 services through early May, and carriers in Vietnam and elsewhere suspending domestic routes due to fuel constraints.

The disruptions stem from the conflict that escalated in late February when U.S. and Israeli strikes targeted Iran, prompting Iranian retaliation that effectively halted most commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The narrow waterway, which normally carries about one-fifth of global seaborne oil trade, has seen traffic reduced to a trickle amid attacks on vessels, soaring insurance costs and safety fears.

Jet fuel prices, which averaged around $2.17 per gallon in the United States before the escalation, surged past $4.57 per gallon by late March, according to the Argus U.S. Jet Fuel Index. In some Asian and European markets, prices have doubled or more, reaching record levels near $200 per barrel or higher in spot trading. The crack spread — the premium for refining jet fuel from crude — has exploded, reflecting acute shortages of the refined product rather than just higher crude costs.

“Jet fuel prices have more than doubled in the last three weeks,” United CEO Scott Kirby said in a recent statement. “If prices stayed at this level, it would mean an extra $11 billion in annual expense just for jet fuel.” Kirby noted the carrier is “tactically pruning flying that’s temporarily unprofitable” while warning of broader impacts if the situation persists.

Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary warned that if the Hormuz disruption continues into May and beyond, European airlines could face shortages of 10% to 20% of normal fuel supply by June, potentially forcing cancellation of 5% to 10% of summer flights. He said cuts would target the most constrained airports with little advance notice from suppliers.

The crisis has hit regions differently. Middle Eastern carriers such as Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad have canceled tens of thousands of flights due to airspace closures and safety concerns in addition to fuel issues. Asian airlines, heavily reliant on Middle Eastern crude refined in South Korea, China and elsewhere, have faced export restrictions and local shortages. Vietnam Airlines has suspended multiple domestic routes, while Korean Air has entered “emergency management mode.”

In Europe, the last major jet fuel shipments from the Middle East to the U.K. were expected to arrive this week, leaving airlines with limited reserves. Some Italian airports have already imposed refueling restrictions for certain operators. Lufthansa has prepared contingency plans that could include grounding portions of its fleet.

U.S. carriers benefit from greater domestic refining capacity and have so far relied more on fare increases and baggage fee hikes than widespread cancellations. JetBlue and others have raised checked baggage fees, while carriers across the board have introduced or increased fuel surcharges on international routes. Air France-KLM added €50 ($58) to long-haul tickets, and several Asian carriers have followed suit.

Aviation analytics firm Cirium reported that on one recent Monday, more than 7,000 flights — nearly 7% of the global schedule — were canceled, far above typical rates. North American departures saw cancellation rates spike to 14.6% on that day.

The International Air Transport Association had forecast a record $41 billion in net profits for the global airline industry in 2026 before the conflict. That outlook is now at serious risk as higher fuel costs coincide with potential weakening in travel demand from elevated gasoline prices and broader economic uncertainty.

Analysts describe the situation as a “perfect storm.” Longer reroutes to avoid Middle Eastern airspace burn extra fuel, compounding costs. Refineries in Asia have cut jet fuel production due to feedstock shortages, while strategic reserves are being drawn down in some countries.

Travelers are already feeling the pinch. Airfares on many routes have risen sharply, with some long-haul examples nearly tripling in price in extreme cases. Industry experts advise passengers to monitor bookings closely, consider flexible tickets and expect potential disruptions through the summer if the conflict drags on.

The war has also disrupted related supply chains. Cargo operators face higher costs and delays, while the broader energy shock has lifted diesel and gasoline prices, adding pressure on household budgets and potentially curbing discretionary travel.

Governments are responding variably. Some Asian nations have redirected fuel stocks domestically or sought emergency assistance. In the U.S., domestic production provides a buffer, but analysts warn that prolonged global tightness could still affect American carriers through higher prices and knock-on effects on international partners.

Billionaire aviation figures have sounded alarms. One Dubai-based jet tycoon warned that if the crisis lasts more than a month, the first airline bankruptcies could emerge as weaker carriers struggle with unsustainable costs.

The situation remains fluid. Diplomatic efforts continue, with some reports of signals from involved parties about willingness to de-escalate, but the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed to routine tanker traffic. Any resolution could ease pressures quickly, as shipping resumes and refineries ramp up, but a prolonged standoff risks deeper economic pain.

For now, airlines are prioritizing cash preservation. Many have shifted to shorter-haul or more fuel-efficient operations where possible and are reviewing summer schedules. Low-cost carriers, with thinner margins, face particular strain despite hedging strategies that have partially mitigated the spike for some.

Passengers planning travel are urged to check airline updates frequently, as last-minute cancellations tied to fuel availability at specific airports could occur with minimal notice. Travel insurance that covers trip interruptions is recommended.

The crisis highlights the vulnerability of global aviation to energy chokepoints. Jet fuel, derived from kerosene, requires specific refining processes, and there is limited spare capacity worldwide to quickly replace lost volumes from the Gulf.

As April unfolds, more carriers are expected to announce adjustments. United’s early move may foreshadow broader U.S. capacity reductions if prices remain elevated. Delta has indicated it could trim schedules, while others watch inventory levels closely.

The human impact extends beyond higher ticket prices. Flight crews face schedule changes, airports deal with irregular operations, and tourism-dependent economies — from Europe to Southeast Asia and Australia — brace for reduced visitor numbers.

Environmental goals may also take a backseat temporarily, as airlines prioritize operational survival over sustainability initiatives that rely on costly sustainable aviation fuel.

Industry groups like IATA have called for strengthened jet fuel resilience, including dedicated reserves and diversified sourcing. The current events underscore how concentrated supply routes create systemic risks.

With no immediate end to the conflict in sight, the aviation sector faces one of its most challenging periods in years. What began as a geopolitical confrontation has rapidly translated into higher costs and fewer flights for travelers worldwide, serving as a stark reminder of interconnected global energy markets.

This article was written by

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Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Author does not own any shares in PINE, however he does invest in Netstreit and other retail REITS not mentioned here.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

GB News has made a bold bid for access to the public purse, arguing that government broadcasting grants should be opened up to competitive tender rather than flowing automatically to the BBC.

The loss-making news channel, backed by hedge fund financier Sir Paul Marshall, set out its case in a submission to the government’s consultation on the BBC’s royal charter. At its heart is a call for “contestable funding”, a mechanism that would allow broadcasters beyond the traditional public service operators to bid for taxpayer-backed support.

The BBC’s World Service is the most obvious target. Once funded entirely by Whitehall, the service now draws primarily on the licence fee but still receives grants from the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office worth £137 million last year. GB News believes it should be eligible to compete for a share of that pot, assessed on criteria including quality, audience reach and value for money.

It is a striking proposition from an organisation that has accumulated losses exceeding £100 million since launching in 2021, and one that is unlikely to find a warm reception at Broadcasting House. GB News framed the argument in the language of market competition, contending that opening funding to tender would drive innovation and encourage what it called “diversity of thought and content”.

The channel pointed to precedent. Between 2019 and 2022, two pilot schemes, the Young Audiences Content Fund and the Audio Content Fund, distributed £48 million across a range of broadcasters and independent producers. GB News also drew attention to New Zealand’s NZ On Air model, which allocates public money to a variety of media outlets, suggesting a similar framework could bolster plurality in Britain’s broadcasting landscape.

The submission to the charter review is part of a broader lobbying campaign. In a separate filing with Ofcom, GB News made a parallel case for contestable funding. It is also pressing for prominence rights currently enjoyed only by the established public service broadcasters, the BBC, ITV, Channel 4, Channel 5 and S4C, which guarantee their channels favourable positioning on television sets, albeit in return for strict obligations around regional production and news output.

Whether the government has any appetite for redirecting public funds towards a commercially owned, politically divisive broadcaster remains to be seen. But GB News’s intervention ensures the question of who qualifies as a public service provider, and who should pay for it, will sit squarely at the centre of the charter debate.

Amy Ingham

Amy is a newly qualified journalist specialising in business journalism at Business Matters with responsibility for news content for what is now the UK’s largest print and online source of current business news.

The winners of the HR in Wales Awards will be revealed in May

Businesses and organisations across Wales have been recognised for their outstanding HR and people development practices with the announcement of the shortlist for the second ever HR in Wales awards.

Launched by Lesley Richards, independent HR consultant and former head of the CIPD in Wales, in 2025 with support from industry experts Louise Price (Hugh James), Mera Mann (Human Resourcing), and Paul Harris (Skylite Associates), the HR in Wales awards will celebrate the achievements of HR and people development professionals across Wales with a special lunchtime ceremony.

This year’s awards will take place at the Marriott Hotel, Cardiff on May 1st and will be hosted by former Wales international Alex Cuthbert.

Building on the success of last year’s ceremony, 98 businesses, teams and individuals entered across nine categories, with a shortlist of 53 going forward for judging. The shortlist reflects the achievements of a range of organisations, both large and small, during a year shaped by ongoing economic uncertainty, global challenges and a rapidly changing talent landscape.

Finalists for 2026 include: Atradius, Cwm Taf Morgannwg University Health Board, Bangor University, S4C, St John Ambulance Cymru, Welsh Local Government Association, Valleys to Coast, Freshwater and last year’s Learning and Development winner, Mrs Buckét Cleaning Services.

Commenting on finalists, Ms Richards, said: “We are very proud to host the second HR in Wales Awards ceremony and those who show what great HR looks like in practice. The competition this year has been fierce, with an impressive number of entries in the Transformation and Change category in particular.

“After what’s been such a challenging year for so many businesses it’s so incredible to see employers respond to economic uncertainty and turn it into an opportunity to strengthen their workforce and streamline operations. People are at the heart of what we do in HR and people development and The HR in Wales a shortlist truly is a reflection of the life-changing work being done here in Wales.”.

The shortlisted finalists:

Equality, Diversity and Inclusion

Bangor University.

Cardiff Community Housing Association.

LBS Builders Merchants.

Valleys to Coast.

WJEC CBAC.

Employee Engagement

Atradius.

Cartrefi Cymru Cooperative.

Cwm Taf Morgannwg University Health Board.

Health Education and Improvement Wales.

HPMA Cymru.

Rocialle Healthcare.

Learning and Development

Cardiff Community Housing Association.

Cwm Taf Morgannwg University Health Board.

HPMA Cymru.

S4C.

Sweetmans and Partners with Sero.

Siderise.

Transformation and Change

Codi Group.

Health Education and Improvement Wales.

Mrs Buckét Cleaning Services.

Rhondda Cynon Taf County Borough Council.

S4C.

St John Ambulance Cymru.

WCVA.

Talent Management

Bipsync.

Freshwater.

St John Ambulance Cymru.

Welsh Local Government Association.

Wellbeing

Codi Group.

Creditsafe Business Solutions.

Cwm Taf Morganwwg University Health Board.

First Choice Housing Association.

Freshwater.

Individual Impact

Sian Fisher – Confident Style Academy.

Emma del Torto – Effective HRM.

Universal Coaching Alliance Wales.

Ann Rowley – Lighthouse HR.

Gemma Littlejohns – Siderise.

Rosie Sweetman – Sweetmans and Partners with Williams Medical Supplies

Dr Ioan Rees – SYCOL

Rising Star

Alex Davies – Siderise.

Emily Summerhayes – Cwm Taf Morgannwg University Health Board.

Harry Underhill – Creditsafe.

Jen Walters – Principality Building Society.

Sadie Govier – Cardiff Airport.

Sophie Cole – ACT Training.

Tammi Jones – Effective HRM.

Toni Louise Davies – HMPA Cymru / NHS Wales.

Excellence in HR leadership

Angela Overment – St John Ambulance Cymru.

Angie Lewis – Welsh Ambulances Services Trust.

Kate Ablett – Mrs Bucket.

Nadine Beacon – S4C.

Simon Argent – Vishay Newport.

The HR in Wales Awards are supported by Hugh James, Vester Group, Human Resourcing, Lesley Richards Limited, Skylite Associates, HSF Health Plan, ALS/ACT, Monmouthshire Building Society, Welsh Government, Hoop Professional Services and HR, and the CIPD.