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Polymarket Investigation: Congress Acts

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Polymarket Investigation: Congress Acts

Congress is calling for a Polymarket investigation after at least 50 newly created accounts placed bets on a US-Iran ceasefire in the minutes before President Trump announced it on social media on April 9.

Summary

  • At least 50 brand-new Polymarket accounts placed winning ceasefire bets minutes before Trump’s announcement.
  • Representative Ritchie Torres sent a letter to the CFTC demanding a formal review of the platform.
  • Senator Richard Blumenthal called Polymarket “an illicit market” for exploiting national security secrets.

The prediction market platform Polymarket is at the center of a congressional firestorm after the US-Iran ceasefire announcement. At least 50 newly created accounts placed bets on the outcome in the hours and minutes before President Trump posted about the deal, and most made no other bets before or since.

According to NPR, at least 50 new accounts placed substantial bets on a US-Iran ceasefire in the hours and minutes before President Trump posted the deal on social media. The accounts had no prior betting history and made no other trades, raising immediate suspicion of insider activity.

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Rep. Ritchie Torres sent a letter to the CFTC demanding a formal investigation. Sen. Richard Blumenthal went further, calling Polymarket “an illicit market to sell and exploit national security secrets unlike any in history.”

A Pattern Polymarket Cannot Escape

This is not the first time suspicious betting has preceded a major geopolitical event. As crypto.news reported, six Polymarket accounts were previously accused of using insider information to profit from the timing of earlier US strikes on Iran, earning roughly $1 million and triggering the so-called DEATH BETS Act from Senator Adam Schiff.

Analytics firm Bubblemaps had flagged newly created wallets placing timely bets just hours before those strikes commenced. The pattern has now repeated with greater speed: the latest bets were placed in the minutes before the announcement, not just hours.

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Regulatory and Legal Exposure

The CFTC issued an advance notice of proposed rulemaking on prediction markets in March 2026, with the comment window set to close on April 30. More than 10 anti-prediction market bills have been introduced in Congress since January.

As crypto.news noted, six Democratic senators previously urged the CFTC to ban contracts that resolve on or correlate to an individual’s death. Polymarket, which operates outside US jurisdiction and requires only a crypto wallet to trade, has not commented on the latest congressional demands.

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Anthropic Trust Adds Novartis CEO to Board

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Anthropic Trust Adds Novartis CEO to Board

Anthropic Trust has appointed Vas Narasimhan, CEO of Novartis, to Anthropic’s board of directors, making him the first pharmaceutical industry executive to join the AI lab’s governing body and tipping Trust-appointed directors to a board majority for the first time.

Summary

  • Narasimhan was appointed on April 14 by the Anthropic Long-Term Benefit Trust, the independent body whose members hold no equity in Anthropic and exist solely to elect board directors aligned with the company’s public benefit mission.
  • With his appointment, Trust-selected directors now hold a majority of seats on the seven-person board, a governance threshold written into Anthropic’s founding documents but not crossed until now.
  • The appointment lands as Anthropic weighs an IPO at a reported $380 billion valuation and deepens its push into healthcare through Claude for Life Sciences and Claude for Healthcare.

Anthropic Trust appointed Vas Narasimhan, CEO of Novartis, to Anthropic’s board of directors on April 14, 2026. With his arrival, directors chosen by the Long-Term Benefit Trust now hold a majority of the seven-person board, crossing a structural governance threshold written into Anthropic’s founding charter but never previously exercised.

Narasimhan is a physician-scientist who has overseen the development and regulatory approval of more than 35 novel medicines and vaccines at Novartis, one of the world’s largest innovative medicines companies. He joins Dario Amodei, Daniela Amodei, Yasmin Razavi, Jay Kreps, Reed Hastings, and Chris Liddell.

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The Anthropic Long-Term Benefit Trust is a separate legal body that holds a special class of Anthropic stock whose only purpose is electing board directors. Its three trustees hold no equity in Anthropic, draw no salary from it, and are selected by each other rather than by shareholders. The current trustees are Buddy Shah of the Clinton Health Access Initiative, Richard Fontaine of the Center for a New American Security, and Mariano-Florentino Cuéllar of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

The Trust’s explicit mandate is to ensure Anthropic balances financial success with its public benefit mission of developing AI responsibly. Trust Chair Neil “Buddy” Shah said the group specifically sought someone who had stewarded breakthrough science responsibly in a highly regulated setting.

Narasimhan is the third director the Trust has placed on the board, joining existing Trust appointees Jay Kreps and Reed Hastings. Together they now constitute a majority, a shift that gives the Trust’s safety and public benefit mandate structural weight in board decisions for the first time.

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The Healthcare Signal

The appointment is not random timing. Anthropic launched Claude for Life Sciences in October 2025 and Claude for Healthcare in January 2026, adding HIPAA-ready infrastructure and tools aimed at clinical, regulatory, and scientific workflows. The company has partnerships with Eli Lilly, Novo Nordisk, and Genmab to explore how AI can compress drug development timelines.

Bringing in a sitting pharma CEO with two decades of regulated-industry experience gives Anthropic direct expertise on the board as Claude’s deployment in clinical and research environments scales. Narasimhan said on LinkedIn that “speed alone isn’t the goal” in healthcare AI, and that “what matters just as much is how these tools are built, governed, and ultimately applied in the real world.”

Daniela Amodei said Narasimhan “brings something rare to our board. He’s overseen the development and approval of more than 35 novel medicines for the benefit of patients around the world in one of the most regulated industries. Getting powerful new technology to people safely and at scale is what we think about every day at Anthropic.”

IPO Context

Anthropic’s annualized revenue has surpassed $30 billion, up from $9 billion at end-2025, as demand for Claude models accelerates across enterprise. The company is reportedly weighing an IPO at a $380 billion valuation, and board composition is increasingly scrutinized by investors ahead of a public listing.

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The addition of a pharma CEO to a Trust-majority board signals that Anthropic wants its safety-first positioning to translate into credibility with regulated-sector institutional buyers, not just a PR narrative. For a company preparing to access public markets, the governance architecture now matches the story.

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NJ Special Election Tests House GOP Majority

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Kharg Island oil hub struck

Voters in New Jersey’s 11th congressional district are heading to the polls today in a special election that could tighten the Republican House majority to its absolute limit, pitting progressive Democrat Analilia Mejia against Republican Joe Hathaway in a district that Democrats carried by 9 points in 2024.

Summary

  • The NJ special election fills the seat vacated by Governor Mikie Sherrill, who resigned from Congress in November 2025 after winning the governorship; Democrats hold a 65,000-voter registration advantage in the district.
  • A Mejia win would leave House Speaker Mike Johnson able to lose just two GOP votes on party-line legislation, down from the current razor-thin margin of 218 Republican seats plus one independent.
  • Mejia, backed by Senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, ran on taxing billionaires and holding Trump accountable; Hathaway positioned himself as a moderate Republican who would not be a “rubber stamp” for the president.

New Jersey voters are deciding today which party fills the vacant House seat in the 11th congressional district, a race that has drawn national attention because of its direct impact on the GOP’s already razor-thin House majority. Progressive Democrat Analilia Mejia faces Republican Joe Hathaway in a district with roughly 65,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans.

The seat opened when Mikie Sherrill resigned in November 2025 after winning the New Jersey governorship. Cook Political Report rated the race “Solid D,” and a March GBAO poll had Mejia leading 53% to 36%.

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Republicans currently hold 218 House seats plus one independent who caucuses with them. Democrats hold 213, with four seats vacant. A Mejia win would reduce the GOP margin further, leaving Speaker Mike Johnson able to lose just two Republican votes on any party-line legislation without Democratic support.

That thinning margin has already been felt in 2026. As crypto.news reported, House Republicans are currently deadlocked over FISA reauthorization and budget reconciliation, consuming legislative bandwidth at the exact moment the CLARITY Act needs Senate Banking Committee attention before midterm politics close the window. A narrower majority makes every defection more consequential.

Who the Candidates Are

Mejia, 48, is a progressive activist and former national political director for Senator Bernie Sanders’ 2020 presidential campaign. She won a crowded February primary by narrowly defeating former Congressman Tom Malinowski, whose campaign was broadly seen as damaged by a $2 million ad blitz from a super PAC aligned with AIPAC that backfired with Democratic primary voters. Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez endorsed Mejia. Her platform centers on taxing billionaires, universal healthcare, holding Trump accountable, and affordability.

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Hathaway, 38, is a Randolph Township councilman and former mayor. He ran as a self-described “commonsense, independent” Republican, repeatedly distancing himself from Trump. “I won’t be a rubber stamp,” he said at an April debate. Trump has not endorsed Hathaway. Hathaway raised $500,000 by end of March versus Mejia’s roughly $1 million, with 70% of his donations coming from $1,000 contributions or higher.

Broader Midterm Implications

Beyond the immediate math, the race is being closely watched as a signal of Democratic voter energy heading into November’s midterms. Special elections in recent years have shown Democrats consistently outperforming their expected margins in suburban districts, and political scientists are watching whether Mejia’s margin tracks or exceeds the district’s historical lean.

The race also tests how effective a progressive candidate can be in an affluent suburban district, with Newsweek noting that her performance could shape Democratic candidate strategy in similar districts across the country heading into the midterm cycle.

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With No Bipartisan Leadership, CFTC ‘Won’t Slow Down‘ on Rulemaking

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Government, CFTC, United States, Commodities Investment, Prediction Markets

The chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Michael Selig, said he would not wait for the appointment of additional commissioners to lead the regulatory agency before moving ahead on rulemaking potentially related to digital assets and prediction markets.

In a Thursday hearing of the House Agriculture Committee, Selig responded to questions from ranking member Angie Craig, who called out the lack of leadership at the CFTC, which normally has a bipartisan panel of five commissioners. The Minnesota representative asked the chair to commit to not finalizing regulations while he is the only commissioner.

“In the interim, we cannot, for the sake of the American people, slow down in our rulemaking,” said Selig. “It’s very important that we get investor protections, consumer protections and safeguards for our markets. And so, I cannot, unfortunately, commit to not do my job that I was appointed to do by the president.”

Government, CFTC, United States, Commodities Investment, Prediction Markets
CFTC Chair Michael Selig speaking on Thursday. Source: US House Committee on Agriculture

Selig, who has served as the CFTC’s sole commissioner and chair since December, has come under scrutiny from many lawmakers for unilaterally leading the agency on rules favoring crypto and prediction markets with no bipartisan group of commissioners. As of Thursday, President Donald Trump had not publicly announced any nominations to staff the agency nor signaled he intended to do so.

“We’re going to do more through rulemaking,” said Selig in response to a question on the CFTC’s leadership from Representative Don Davis. “We can’t have the staff deciding on discretion what the rules are.”

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Related: CFTC probes oil futures trades tied to Trump’s moves in Iran: Report

The CFTC chair proposed rulemaking in March that could amend or issue new regulations over event contracts on prediction markets. Selig has been outspoken about claiming that the agency has “exclusive jurisdiction” over prediction markets as the companies behind some platforms face state-level lawsuits related to sports betting laws and proposed legislation to crack down on insider trading.

CFTC’s legal fight over prediction market continues

Gaming authorities in several US states have filed lawsuits against prediction market companies like Kalshi and Polymarket, alleging the platforms offered sports betting in violation of state laws.

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New Mexico Representative Gabe Vasquez questioned Selig at Thursday’s hearing with a visual aid showing that bets on event contracts and through state-level gaming “aren’t much of a difference, yet they are regulated completely differently.” He accused the CFTC of using “loopholes” to bypass state laws and requirements for prediction markets, causing some jurisdictions to miss out on revenue.

“The CFTC was not created or intended to regulate sports gambling,” said Vasquez, adding:

“Are we regulating real economic risk, or are we allowing prediction markets to steal billions of dollars in an unregulated free-for-all, with no consumer protection as Congress and the CFTC turns a blind eye?”

Companies like Kalshi have argued that they are under the sole jurisdiction of the CFTC. This argument led the company to court wins in Arizona and New Jersey, where this month judges blocked state officials from taking action against Kalshi.

Magazine: Should users be allowed to bet on war and death in prediction markets?

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