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Bitcoin slides toward $70,000 as on-chain data flags bear market and traders bet Fed holds in April: Asia Morning Briefing

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(CryptoQuant)

Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.

Bitcoin is entering the Asian trading day with on-chain data flashing full bear-market signals, as prices hover in the mid-$70,000s and global equity markets continue to search for direction.

CryptoQuant’s latest weekly report frames the weakness as structural rather than cyclical, with its Bull Score Index sitting at zero while bitcoin trades far below its October peak. The report argues the market is no longer digesting gains but operating with a thinner buyer base and tightening liquidity.

(CryptoQuant)
(CryptoQuant)

Glassnode data reinforces that picture, pointing to weak spot volumes and a demand vacuum where selling pressure is not being met with sustained absorption. In effect, the issue is less panic than participation.

Institutional flows underline the shift. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, which were net accumulators at this time last year, have flipped into net sellers, creating a year over year demand gap measured in tens of thousands of bitcoin.

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At the same time, the Coinbase premium has remained negative since October, signaling that U.S. investors are not meaningfully stepping in despite lower prices. Historically, sustained bull phases have coincided with strong U.S. spot demand. That engine is currently idling.

Liquidity conditions are also tightening beneath the surface. Stablecoin expansion, which typically fuels risk appetite and trading activity, has stalled, with USDT market cap growth turning negative for the first time since 2023.

(CryptoQuant)

(CryptoQuant)

Longer-term apparent demand growth has likewise collapsed from last year’s highs, suggesting this is not merely leverage being flushed but participation itself fading. Technically, bitcoin remains below its 365-day moving average, with on-chain valuation bands clustering major support in the $70,000 to $60,000 corridor.

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Overlaying this is a macro backdrop where bitcoin is increasingly behaving like high-beta software rather than digital gold. Prediction markets show traders still leaning heavily toward no change at the Federal Reserve’s April meeting, with only modest expectations for a June rate cut. That hesitancy limits the prospect of near term liquidity relief.

The policy narrative is further complicated by politics. President Donald Trump recently spoke to the press about his Fed nominee Kevin Warsh and said during an interview with NBC News a Fed chair who wanted to raise rates “would not have gotten the job,” a remark that tempers earlier optimism about central bank independence.

For Asia, the result is a market defined less by shock than by absence, where bounces remain possible, but conviction remains thin.

Market Movement

BTC: Bitcoin drifted lower into the mid $70,000s after briefly testing support, with rebounds fading quickly as spot demand remained thin and tech stocks stayed under pressure.

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ETH: Ether hovered just above the low $2,000s, struggling to build momentum as broader risk sentiment softened and flows remained muted across major exchanges.

Gold: Gold rebounded toward the $5,000 to $5,100 range, extending a volatile recovery driven by safe-haven buying after U.S.–Iran tensions flared and softer private payroll data offset mixed economic signals while traders reassessed the Fed outlook under Trump’s new chair pick.

Nikkei 225: Japan’s Nikkei 225 edged lower by roughly 0.3% as chip and tech heavyweights tracked Wall Street’s sell-off, though broader Japanese equities remained relatively resilient compared with regional peers.

Elsewhere in Crypto:

  • Binance denies issuing legal threats over insolvency allegations (The Block)
  • Multicoin Capital co-founder Kyle Samani steps down after nearly a decade to pursue other areas of tech (CoinDesk)

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Crypto World

What Will Restart The Rally?

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What Will Restart The Rally?

Bitcoin (BTC) struggles to reclaim price highs above $76,000, but analysts say that the uptrend may continue if key conditions are met.

Bitcoin’s 8% climb over the last three days saw it reclaim key levels, including the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $71,000.

“$76K is the level that decides everything,” analyst Crypto Patel said in a Wednesday post on X, adding:

“We need a proper HTF candle close above this zone to trust the move.”

Related: Bitcoin falls to lower support as analysts say markets are ignoring key Iran issue

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The analyst further explained that a high-time frame close above $76,000 would open the path toward the $84,000-$96,000 zone, where investors acquired more than 2 million BTC over the last six months, according to Glassnode’s cost basis distribution heatmap.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: X/Crypto Patel

Echoing this view, trading resource Material Indicators said that “there are multiple levels of technical resistance stacked” between the spot price and a “bonafide $BTC bull market breakout.”

These include the yearly open at $87,500 and the 50-week moving average at $97,000, which must be reclaimed to confirm that the “$BTC bull market has returned,” Material Indicators said in a follow-up post.

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Material Indicators

The trading resource further pointed out that the relative strength index must close and hold above the 41 level in the weekly time frame. 

Previous occurrences in 2023, 2020 and 2019 have led to 660%, 1,600% and 316% BTC price rallies, respectively.

“Obviously, we are not there yet,” Materials indicators said in a video posted on X, adding:

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“Those are the macro things that need to happen to say a validated bull market is on.”

For analyst Rekt Capital, the BTC/USD pair needs to achieve a weekly close above $72,800 to “confirm a breakout.”

BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: X/Rekt Capital

As Cointelegraph reported, the bulls must decisively break above the $76,000-$80,000 range to confirm a trend change.

Optimism needs to return to the BTC market

The bull score index, a measure of Bitcoin’s overall market health that combines fundamental and technical metrics, indicates a significant improvement in market conditions following BTC’s latest move to $76,000

The metric increased to 40 on April 15, the highest since late October 2025. This reading remains within neutral territory, reflecting a gradual recovery after a period of relatively weak momentum.

While the bull score index improvement to 40 “reflects relative stability in the market,” it must rise to an area of “strong optimism (above 60), which typically indicates strong bullish conditions,”  CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain said in a Quicktake post, adding:

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“If the indicator continues to improve gradually, it may signal a potential return of upward momentum, especially if higher levels are reclaimed in the coming period.”

Bitcoin bull score index. Source: CryptoQuant

Meanwhile, demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs remains intermittent, with these investment products recording alternating inflows and outflows after every few days. 

Although the $451 million in net inflows recorded on Tuesday pointed to a return in demand from US investors, persistent positive flows are required to propel BTC price higher.

Spot Bitcoin ETF flows chart. Source: SoSoValue

As Cointelegraph reported, onchain activity is showing “bull market behavior,” with Bitcoin’s daily transaction count reaching 17-month highs, further reinforcing BTC’s upside potential.