SYDNEY — Australia’s unemployment rate rose modestly to 4.3 per cent in February 2026, the latest official data show, marking a slight uptick from 4.1 per cent in January but remaining near historic lows as the labour market continued to absorb a growing workforce amid steady economic conditions.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics released the February Labour Force figures on March 19, revealing seasonally adjusted unemployment climbed 0.2 percentage points while employment hit a fresh record high of 14.75 million. Economists had expected the rate to hold steady near 4.1 per cent, making the increase a mild surprise that fuelled debate about the pace of cooling in the jobs market.

In trend terms — a smoother measure less affected by monthly volatility — the unemployment rate actually edged down to 4.2 per cent in February from a revised 4.3 per cent the prior month. The ABS noted that unemployed people totalled 659,100 on a seasonally adjusted basis, up 35,000 from January, while the number of people in work rose by a stronger-than-expected 48,900.

Participation rate climbed to a four-month high of 66.9 per cent, reflecting more Australians entering or re-entering the labour force. That surge in job seekers, many of whom had not yet secured positions, contributed to the higher headline unemployment figure despite robust job creation.

Full-time employment dipped by 30,500 in February, but part-time jobs jumped sharply by 79,400, driving overall gains. Total monthly hours worked eased slightly to 2,007 million, down 0.2 per cent. Underemployment held steady at 5.9 per cent.

The data paint a picture of a resilient but gradually moderating labour market as Australia navigates higher interest rates, cost-of-living pressures and uneven global conditions. Unemployment has hovered in a narrow band between 4.1 per cent and 4.3 per cent so far in 2026 after ending 2025 around similar levels.

January’s rate remained unchanged at 4.1 per cent, with employment rising by about 18,000 to 26,000 depending on revisions, and trend unemployment falling to 4.1 per cent. December 2025 closed the prior year at 4.1 per cent seasonally adjusted after a modest decline.

So far in 2026, the official seasonally adjusted unemployment rate has averaged roughly 4.17 per cent across the two reported months, with trend measures even lower around 4.15 per cent. That remains well below the long-term average of about 6.5 per cent since 1978 and far from the 11.2 per cent peak seen in the early 1990s recession. The record low of 3.4 per cent was recorded in late 2022.

Economists offered mixed interpretations. Some viewed the February uptick as evidence of a tightening supply of workers meeting steady demand, with the participation surge signalling confidence. Others warned it could foreshadow further softening if full-time job losses persist and hours worked continue to trend lower.

“We now expect near-term unemployment to rise slightly faster through 2026 and peak at just shy of 4.6 per cent in early 2027,” one major bank economist noted after the release, citing the impact of prior Reserve Bank of Australia rate hikes filtering through the economy.

Alternative measures provide additional nuance. Roy Morgan Research, which uses a different methodology tracking “real” unemployment and under-employment, estimated February’s real unemployment at 10.6 per cent of the workforce after a 0.6 percentage point drop, though under-employment surged to a record 11.6 per cent. The private pollster reported overall employment climbing 148,000 to 14.54 million in its February survey.

The official ABS figures continue to show strength in key indicators. Employment growth over the year to February stood at about 1.8 per cent, with more than 264,000 additional people in work compared with February 2025. The employment-to-population ratio edged higher, underscoring that a larger share of working-age Australians hold jobs.

Youth unemployment remained elevated but stable, hovering around 14 per cent in recent months. Regional variations persist, with stronger conditions in some mining and service-oriented states contrasting softer outcomes in parts of the eastern seaboard affected by higher living costs.

The labour market data come as the Reserve Bank of Australia weighs the trajectory for interest rates. With inflation still above target in some components and wages growth moderating but still firm, the central bank has kept the cash rate elevated. February’s mixed jobs print — strong headline employment but rising unemployment and falling full-time roles — sparked fresh discussion about whether further tightening or a pause might be warranted.

Treasury and government officials highlighted the record employment levels as evidence of underlying resilience. “The data paints a picture of a labour market continuing to grow, creating opportunities for all Australians,” one ministerial statement noted in earlier 2026 releases.

Broader economic context includes solid population growth from migration, which has expanded the labour force and helped businesses fill vacancies. However, it has also placed pressure on housing, infrastructure and public services, indirectly influencing participation and job-seeking behaviour.

Analysts at KPMG projected unemployment trending toward 4.4 per cent by the end of 2026, with employment growth slowing to around 0.8 per cent annually as non-market sector hiring cools and market-sector demand moderates. The consultancy described current conditions as operating near the neutral zone of labour market pressure, with limited spare capacity but no excessive inflationary push from wages.

March 2026 data, scheduled for release in mid-April, will provide the next snapshot. Consensus forecasts ahead of that print hover around 4.3 per cent, with some expecting little change or a modest further drift higher if participation remains elevated.

Longer-term projections suggest the rate may stabilise in the low-to-mid 4 per cent range through 2027–2028, assuming no major external shocks. That would represent a remarkably tight labour market by historical standards, supporting consumer spending but constraining businesses facing skills shortages in sectors such as health care, construction and technology.

Challenges remain. Full-time job declines in February raised questions about the quality of employment growth, with more Australians taking part-time roles to make ends meet amid cost-of-living pressures. Hours worked have shown softness, potentially signalling under-utilisation even as headline unemployment stays low.

The data also highlight ongoing gender and age disparities. Female participation has risen strongly in recent years, while youth and some regional cohorts continue to face higher barriers to full-time work.

As Australia moves further into 2026, the unemployment rate will serve as a key barometer for the economy’s health. Policymakers, businesses and households alike will watch whether the current low-rate environment persists or if gradual softening — driven by tighter monetary policy and global uncertainties — begins to materialise more clearly.

For now, with unemployment between 4.1 per cent and 4.3 per cent in the opening months of the year and record numbers of Australians employed, the labour market retains its reputation for resilience even as subtle signs of moderation appear beneath the surface.

The next official update on March conditions, due April 16, will clarify whether February’s uptick was a temporary blip or the start of a more sustained drift higher. Until then, Australia’s jobs market remains one of the tighter among advanced economies, a point of relative strength amid global economic crosscurrents.

Regional leaders expect air travel to increase in the next three years, according to the report commissioned by the transport hub

Bristol Airport plays a “critical role” in the regional economy and is important for attracting international tourists, students and business travellers, according to a new report. The research by CBI Economics – and commissioned by the transport hub – questioned some 230 companies in the South West.

Of those surveyed, 79 per cent said that in-person meetings enabled by air travel were important to their company’s success. A third also said they expected international business travel to increase in the next one-to-three years.

More than half (52 per cent) of the businesses questioned currently rely on other airports, such as Heathrow and Gatwick, due to gaps in route availability or frequency at Bristol Airport.

Respondents said this “harms productivity and drives up costs” while also blaming limited connectivity for “missed opportunities” for the visitor economy. Of those questioned, 26 per cent reported lost inbound visitor opportunities due to flight availability issues.

Dave Lees, chief executive of Bristol Airport, said: “This robust and independent assessment makes clear how vital international air connectivity is for our region’s economy. Business travel has changed since the pandemic, but we’ve seen overall growth – there’s still huge value in meeting face-to-face.

“Our plans for growth would provide new connections for our region, improving productivity so that passengers don’t have to travel via London airports, and attracting more visitors into our fantastic region. The study makes clear that stymying growth would mean our region loses competitiveness, with benefits going elsewhere in the UK and Europe.”

The report comes just two weeks after Bristol Airport submitted a planning application to North Somerset Council to increase its capacity from 12 million passengers a year to 15 million. According to the regional transport hub, the plans would see an extra 1,000 on-site airport jobs created including roles such as engineers, mechanics, airline crew, retail assistants and caterers.

The airport also said the plans would allow it to provide routes to more destinations, including world cities within Europe and a limited number of new longer-haul flights to North America and the Middle East.

Douglas Ure, chief executive of South West chamber of commerce Business West, said: “The airport is vital infrastructure that supports our strong economic position. The proposed plans would create new jobs and further facilitate the flow of services, goods and business connections. We support these proposals and expect many of our members will too.”

In 2022, Bristol Airport airport was given the go ahead to expand from 10 million to 12 million passengers a year after a High Court judge dismissed a challenge to the plans.

Last year, around 1.6 million journeys were made via Bristol Airport – higher than before the Covid-19 travel restrictions.

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The famous music shop in a prime city centre shopping arcade is set to become a huge new restaurant, according to planning documents

A prime Newcastle spot in a city centre shopping arcade is set to be converted into a sizeable new restaurant, according to planning documents. Music retailer JG Windows abruptly shut its doors permanently in November 2024, attributing its difficulties to fierce competition from major online retailers.

The expansive store, which stocked everything from instruments to grand pianos, records, sheet music and musical equipment, had been a regular destination for big-name stars and budding musicians for decades, having first opened in Central Arcade in 1908. Yet following the auction of its stock, the large unit has sat vacant ever since, alongside the neighbouring empty premises, previously occupied by health food company Naked Deli.

Now, however, Taras Properties Ltd – the property arm of arcade owners Reuben Brothers – has submitted planning applications revealing plans to convert the space into a sizeable Thai restaurant, The Giggling Squid.

The family business, which takes its name from a nickname given to the founders’ children, has been steadily expanding throughout the UK in recent years and now operates 53 restaurants throughout the UK.

It has ambitions to launch a sizeable new venue in Newcastle, by occupying the empty JG Windows premises along with the vacant Naked Deli space. The design statement lodged alongside the application emphasises how Giggling Squid boasts over two decades of expertise and establishments across England, including the Grade II Listed Earl Street site in Maidstone.

The document states: “Both units are currently vacant; as such, the proposed development seeks to facilitate a long-term viable use for the building as a restaurant, which is located in a prominent position within Newcastle City Centre’s Urban Core. Giggling Squid have extensive experience in balancing the needs of their restaurants within the confines of listed buildings.

“Indeed, the Maidstone Giggling Squid restaurant is located within the Grade II Listed Maidstone Club. Giggling Squid’s extensive experience in sensitively restoring Listed Buildings has helped positively shape the final designs.”

The application states that most of the historic first-floor layout would remain largely unaltered, apart from three minor openings. Proposed modifications also include installing a kitchen area alongside customer dining spaces, featuring a combination of banquette seating and dining table seating along the Grey Street elevation and bullnose.

The shopfront is proposed to be repainted green, in accordance with the Grainger Town Shopfront Design Guide, and externally, on the Grey Street elevation, the top and bottom mouldings of the former Naked Deli shopfront will be replaced to create continuous mouldings to the fascia. Careful restoration of the existing timber shopfront will also be carried out, including the existing gold leaf “Newcastle Brewers Ltd” sign at the footwell of 99 Grey Street.

Within the internal Central Arcade walkway, the existing stained and polished shopfront will be preserved and repaired where necessary, and the existing JG Windows signage will remain in place, with the new fascia signage to be overlaid using 3mm powder-coated aluminium.

The application adds: “Given the site’s prominent location within the Urban Core, the proposed development would enhance the vibrancy of the city centre, as encouraged by local policy. The compatibility of restaurants in proximity to dwellings has also been established through the presence of Côte Brasserie and Café Andaluz within the Central Exchange Building.”

The application says the majority of the historic layout of the first floor would remain largely unchanged, with the exception of three minor openings. Proposed alterations also include the installation of a kitchen area as well as customer dining areas, comprising a mix of banquette seating and dining table seating, along the Grey Street elevation and bullnose. The shop front is proposed to be repainted green, in line with the Grainger Town Shopfront Design Guide.

The application adds: “Given the site’s prominent location within the Urban Core, the proposed development would enhance the vibrancy of the city centre, as encouraged by local policy. The compatibility of restaurants in proximity to dwellings has also been established through the presence of Côte Brasserie and Café Andaluz within the Central Exchange Building.

“The proposed development will provide some clear conservation benefits through the retention of features of residual value within the building and the enhancement of the Grainger Town shop front. Due to the large amount of necessary physical works within the building, it is acknowledged that there could be some residual less than substantial harm, albeit at a very low level following a considered design process.

“Nonetheless, it has been demonstrated, that the public benefits associated with this proposal far outweigh any less than substantial harm. The high quality fit out designed to complement a heritage asset will ensure that a space that is not currently fit for purpose without change and investment will be ready for use and enjoyment for the public.”

Like this story? For more news from the commercial property scene around the regions, visit our dedicated section here for the latest news and analysis within the sector.

YouTube Premium subscribers should expect to see higher monthly prices, marking the first increase since 2023.

The streaming platform said the price changes will help it “maintain features our members value most: ad-free viewing, background play, and a massive library of 300M+ tracks on YouTube Music.”

“We continue to offer several plans, ensuring subscribers can choose the option that works best for them,” the company said.

NETFLIX CEO GRILLED DURING HEATED SENATE HEARING OVER TRANS CONTENT FOR CHILDREN: ‘SEEMS STRANGE TO ME’

YouTube Premium is raising prices for multiple plans. (Anna Barclay/Getty Images)

YouTube Premium offers ad-free viewing, background listening, offline video downloads and full access to YouTube Music Premium.

Under the new pricing, YouTube Premium will cost $15.99 per month, up $2 from $13.99. YouTube Music Premium will rise to $11.99, up $1 from $10.99, while the YouTube Premium Lite plan will increase to $8.99 per month from $7.99.

NETFLIX RAISES SUBSCRIPTION PRICES ACROSS ALL PLANS

Under the new pricing, YouTube Premium will cost $15.99 per month, up $2 from $13.99. (Idrees Abbas/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)

The family plan, which allows up to six people in the same household to share access, will increase to $26.99 per month, up from $22.99. Student plans will also rise to $8.99 per month, an increase from $7.99.

JURY FINDS META, GOOGLE LIABLE IN LANDMARK SOCIAL MEDIA ADDICTION TRIAL, AWARDS MORE THAN $6M IN DAMAGES

The latest price increases come as streaming companies continue to adjust subscription costs across the industry. Netflix recently raised the price of its ad-supported tier by $1 to $8.99, while Spotify increased its monthly plan in January from $11.99 to $12.99.

Shares of Alphabet, the corporate parent of YouTube and Google, are up 0.85% year to date.

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Jo Bamford, heir to the JCB fortune, says move might be needed to preserve jobs

The heir to the billion-pound JCB fortune has warmed that the government’s inheritance tax clampdown on family businesses could drive his father’s vast commercial empire out of the country.

Jo Bamford, whose billionaire father Anthony owns the excavation equipment manufacturer, warned he may be compelled to relocate abroad in order to protect jobs across the family’s portfolio of companies and prevent businesses from being broken up and sold.

“The family tax… is a real problem,” he told City AM in an interview, adding: “It could quite easily become an American business. I love being in Britain. I love being here. I love our factories here. But I would say to a political party of any stripe, look, there’s only so much you can ultimately do.”

The government has pressed ahead with proposals to impose inheritance tax on family-owned enterprises for the first time in decades, as part of a sweeping crackdown on wealth. The measure, first unveiled at Labour’s inaugural Budget, has sparked a chorus of warnings from business owners that the death duty will compel long-established firms to be sold off or dismantled to meet their tax obligations.

Both farms and family-run businesses had previously enjoyed a longstanding exemption from the unpopular levy, allowing them to be handed down without restriction. However, they were drawn into its scope amid concerns the arrangement was being exploited as a loophole by the super-wealthy. Under the changes, which came into force last week, all shareholdings in a family business worth more than £2.5m will be subject to a reduced inheritance tax rate of 20 per cent, as reported by City AM.

Billionaire engineering mogul James Dyson and hotel magnate Sir Rocco Forte have both cautioned that unless the levy is reversed, their heirs will likely be forced to sell off portions of their businesses to meet the costs. Meanwhile, drinks tycoon Steve Perez, founder of VK-maker Global Brands, warned that his company has scrapped investment plans for a new plant and hotel in a bid to reduce his family’s exposure to the tax.

At BusinessLive, we reported this week that JW Lees brewery boss William Lees-Jones also feared the impact of inheritance tax on family firms, calling the recent change an “act of self harm” that will stop family firms growing and creating jobs.

Bamford, whose family owns boutique food and drinks retailer Daylesford, the eponymous luxury soap brand, and JCB, told City AM that he and his sister were born in the US in the 1970s following a government drive to nationalise its business.

The manufacturing heir, whose father donated millions to the Conservative Party and is now one of Nigel Farage’s most prominent corporate backers, said: “When you’re hunting down family businesses or farms or any those two things, it is quite contentious, but you want people to hold on to these things long term.

“You want us, as a family, to invest here in Britain. You know, we have businesses everywhere around the world. We have them in India and China and Brazil. I’m here because I’m British and I’m here and I employ people in Britain because I like British people, and I like being in my part of the community.”

Serial entrepreneur Bamford maintains a position on the JCB board but has carved out a career in the clean energy sector, establishing hydrogen fuel company Ryze Power and chairing the board of environmentally-friendly bus manufacturer Wrightbus.

WINONA, Minn. — Shares of Fastenal Co. tumbled more than 6% Monday to $45.77 after the industrial distributor posted first-quarter results that largely met Wall Street expectations but failed to excite investors amid concerns over margin trends, pricing contributions and a cautious outlook in a mixed manufacturing environment.

The company, a leading supplier of fasteners, tools and industrial supplies, reported net sales of $2.2017 billion for the quarter ended March 31, up 12.4% from $1.9594 billion a year earlier. Daily sales rose 12.4% on the same number of business days, driven by market share gains, improved customer contract signings and broad-based demand across core end markets including manufacturing and construction.

Earnings per share came in at $0.30, matching analyst consensus estimates exactly and up from $0.26 in the prior-year period. Net income climbed 13.8% to $339.8 million. Operating income reached $447.6 million, yielding an operating margin of 20.3%, a 20-basis-point improvement year-over-year.

Despite the solid top-line growth and slight margin expansion, shares opened sharply lower and remained under pressure throughout the session. Some analysts and investors appeared disappointed that a portion of the sales increase — about 350 basis points — stemmed from pricing actions rather than pure volume growth, which rose an estimated 5.9%. Foreign exchange contributed a modest 60-basis-point tailwind.

Fastenal’s results reflect resilience in U.S. industrial activity even as broader economic signals remain mixed. Management highlighted continued strength in vending and other on-site customer solutions, which help lock in long-term relationships and improve supply chain efficiency for buyers.

“We delivered strong double-digit daily sales growth in the first quarter, reflecting share gains and broad-based demand,” said Fastenal CEO Dan Florness in prepared remarks accompanying the release. The company noted slight improvement in industrial production indices during the period.

Operating cash flow surged 44.3% to $378.4 million, representing 111.4% of net income and underscoring strong working capital management, including inventory optimization. The company returned $295.7 million to shareholders through $275.6 million in dividends and $20.1 million in share repurchases during the quarter.

Fastenal maintained a fortress-like balance sheet with total debt of just $125 million and significant cash generation capacity. For the full year 2026, the company guided for capital expenditures net of proceeds between $310 million and $330 million, up from $230.6 million in 2025. The increase supports replacement of the Atlanta hub facility, network efficiency upgrades, higher trucking investments and delayed IT projects now rolling into 2026.

The effective tax rate for the quarter stood at 24.2%, with management projecting an ongoing rate around 24.6% absent discrete items.

Analysts had entered the report expecting revenue near $2.19 billion and EPS of $0.30. The slight revenue beat of about $12 million provided little catalyst as the market appeared to price in higher expectations for volume-driven growth and sustained margin improvement.

The stock’s decline comes after a period of relative strength, with shares having traded near 52-week highs around $50.63 earlier in 2026. Monday’s drop pushed the market capitalization to roughly $52-53 billion, with a forward price-to-earnings multiple still elevated given the company’s consistent execution.

Fastenal’s business model — centered on thousands of branches, vending machines and sophisticated supply chain services — has long been viewed as defensive in industrial cycles. The company has expanded its addressable market through e-commerce, direct imports and value-added services that go beyond basic product distribution.

Yet investors remain sensitive to any signs of softening in manufacturing. While Q1 showed improvement, forward-looking commentary on the earnings call focused on steady but not explosive demand, with some end markets still navigating inventory adjustments and tariff-related uncertainties.

Pricing contributed meaningfully to the sales increase, a factor that may prove less sustainable if raw material costs stabilize or competitive pressures intensify. Gross margins held steady as the company balanced cost management with selective price adjustments.

The industrial distributor has benefited from onshoring trends and companies seeking more reliable domestic supply chains. Fastenal’s ability to deliver products quickly through its extensive network has been a competitive advantage, particularly for maintenance, repair and operations spending.

Broader sector dynamics include potential impacts from trade policies, infrastructure spending and capital investment cycles in heavy industry. Fastenal serves a diverse customer base spanning small machine shops to large manufacturers, giving it a real-time pulse on economic activity.

Wall Street’s consensus rating remains a cautious Hold, with an average 12-month price target around $48-49, implying modest upside from current levels. Some firms have highlighted the stock’s premium valuation relative to peers, while others cite Fastenal’s superior return on capital and consistent cash returns as justification for a higher multiple.

The company has increased its dividend for decades, making it a favorite among income-oriented investors. The quarterly payout remains reliable, with the most recent declaration underscoring management’s confidence in long-term cash generation.

Looking ahead, investors will monitor monthly sales updates for signs of sustained momentum. Fastenal typically provides preliminary daily sales figures early in the following month, offering frequent transparency into trends.

Risks include cyclical exposure to manufacturing slowdowns, commodity price volatility affecting both costs and pricing power, and potential margin compression if pricing tailwinds fade. Competition from other distributors and direct manufacturers also remains a factor, though Fastenal’s scale and service model provide differentiation.

The stock carries a beta below 1.0, reflecting its relative stability, though earnings reactions can still produce sharp moves when growth or margin narratives shift.

Fastenal’s long-term track record of profitable growth, high returns and shareholder-friendly capital allocation has built a loyal following. Monday’s sell-off appears more a case of “sell the news” after in-line results rather than fundamental disappointment.

With U.S. manufacturing showing pockets of strength and the company continuing to gain share through technology-enabled services, Fastenal remains well-positioned for the remainder of 2026. Whether the market rewards the execution or continues to demand faster volume acceleration will shape the stock’s trajectory in coming months.

As of mid-April 2026, the industrial bellwether trades at levels that some value investors may view as more attractive following the post-earnings pullback, while growth-oriented holders await clearer signals of accelerating end-market demand.

The earnings call, held Monday morning, provided additional color on regional trends, category performance and strategic initiatives around digital tools and supply chain optimization. Management emphasized disciplined execution amid an environment that remains constructive but not euphoric.

Fastenal’s ability to compound earnings through cycles has been a hallmark of its business. The Q1 print, while not a blowout, demonstrated that the company continues to navigate macro crosscurrents effectively while investing for future efficiency gains.

For a stock often described as a proxy for U.S. industrial health, Monday’s reaction underscores how even solid results can disappoint when expectations have been elevated by prior momentum. The coming weeks of monthly sales data will likely set the tone for investor sentiment heading into the second quarter.