Welsh Labour is in unfamiliar territory. While winning elections in Wales had become routine since 1922, the upcoming Senedd (Welsh parliament) election has thrown the party into uncharted waters, with the prospect of finishing a distant third.
So much is new about this election. The Senedd has been expanded from 60 to 96 members, alongside the introduction of a new electoral system which changes how members are elected, making this a contest like no other in the devolution era.
But it is not just the Senedd that is transforming. More than a century of Labour dominance now appears under serious threat, with Plaid Cymru and Reform UK emerging as beneficiaries of a potentially seismic realignment.
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Polling suggests a stark outcome: around 12 seats for the party that has dominated Welsh political life, down from 29 at the last election. And that’s despite the Senedd’s expansion.
In trying to breathe new life into the party, Welsh Labour claimed in late 2025 to be ushering in a new generation of Senedd members. The upcoming election suggests otherwise, with more of the same and mostly familiar faces. At the centre of it all, the party’s leader, Eluned Morgan, is not just fighting a monumental battle for her party but for her own seat too.
Dominance and decline
The collapse of dominant parties can often appear sudden. Just five years ago, Welsh Labour was celebrating one of its best Senedd election results. Labour was still in a triumphant mood as recently as two years ago, dominating the 2024 general election and wiping out the Conservatives in Wales.
Yet the political mood has shifted dramatically. Vaughan Gething, a former Welsh Labour first minister, was forced out in 2024 following controversy over campaign donations. This fuelled perceptions of instability and corruption within the party. Declining confidence in the Welsh government and an electorate increasingly weary after more than two decades of uninterrupted Labour rule have left the party’s prospects looking bleak.
The pandemic has also played a role. It raised public awareness of the powers held by the devolved Welsh government, which includes health and education. While undoubtedly a positive in terms of political knowledge, it means Welsh Labour is less able to point the blame for problems towards Westminster.
Policies such as the introduction of a default 20mph speed limit in urban areas, alongside reforms affecting farming, have provoked vocal backlash among sections of the electorate.
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Welsh Labour’s impending defeat also points to something deeper and much longer term. The Senedd currently has 40 members elected in constituencies by first-past-the-post, and 20 regional members elected proportionally across five regions. This limited proportional representation has meant that the fundamental changes happening within Wales haven’t been fully captured by previous elections. This would include declining loyalty in traditional Labour strongholds, generational shifts, and the gradual rise of rival parties like Plaid Cymru and Reform reshaping the political landscape.
History and international comparisons also tell us that the dominant party eventually wears itself out in office, failing to keep up with the society in which it is rooted.
Through positioning itself as the natural party of Wales, Welsh Labour has consistently attempted to cling to its historic position.
References to party figures like Aneurin Bevan, the founding of the NHS, and appeals to solidarity and community sound increasingly hollow in a nation that has borne the brunt of deindustrialisation and austerity for decades. Rather than forging a new, positive future, Welsh Labour has become stuck in its own past.
Internal tensions
The party has also been hampered by internal tensions. Welsh Labour has long been split between those sceptical of further devolution and those who support expanding the powers of the Senedd. It’s a divide that often surfaces in tensions between its representatives in Westminster and those in Cardiff Bay.
Labour MPs in London have at times been dismissive of constitutional demands from their Senedd colleagues. Meanwhile, Welsh Labour Senedd members routinely express frustration at what they see as hostility from the UK leadership.
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Eluned Morgan’s voice appears lost. She claims to be speaking for Wales within the party, but is regularly ignored by Keir Starmer and his team.
Since devolution in 1999, Welsh Labour’s success has rested partly on its ability to project a distinctively Welsh identity. Since Labour returned to power at the UK level in 2024, this emphasis on “standing up for Wales” has faded.
Against this backdrop, Welsh Labour needed something substantial to present to the electorate when it launched its manifesto in March. One of the centrepieces trailed in the press was a pledge to freeze taxes if re-elected. While such a freeze may be welcomed by voters, it is ultimately emblematic of a party promising little more than continuity. In effect, freezing taxes means keeping things as they are.
After 27 years of Labour-led government in Wales, public frustration is evident. The pressures of long-term incumbency, internal party strains and shifting political dynamics have converged to challenge Welsh Labour’s claim to govern. As its century-long dominance appears to be drawing to a close, Welsh Labour can no longer easily present itself as the natural party of Wales.
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