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Bitcoin dips below $74K amid Middle East tensions and mixed market signals

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Bitcoin dips below $74K amid Middle East tensions and mixed market signals

Key takeaways

  • BTC eases back from 76k, a monthly high.
  • Technical indicators suggest further correction in the near term.

Bitcoin has dropped below $74,000 after pulling back from a monthly high earlier this week. The cryptocurrency surged from $70K at the start of the week to hit $76K on Tuesday, before easing to its current level. 

Mixed signals for the crypto market

The US Navy has confirmed a full blockade of Iranian ports, amplifying concerns over oil supply disruptions and pushing prices higher from three-week lows. However, President Trump has suggested that the conflict may be nearing an end, which has tempered further upside in oil prices and kept hopes of a de-escalation alive. 

In addition to that, treasury yields have been on a downward trend, supported by softer-than-expected PPI data for March, which rose 0.5% month-on-month, below the 1.2% forecast. This easing of inflation concerns benefits Bitcoin, as lower yields signal improving liquidity and reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like crypto.

The US stock market has also been resilient, with the Nasdaq posting its tenth consecutive winning session, gaining nearly 10% in April. Crypto markets have mirrored this strength, with Bitcoin up approximately 8.5% so far this month. 

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These parallel moves suggest that Bitcoin is increasingly trading as a macro-sensitive asset, responding to broader market sentiment rather than purely crypto-specific factors.

Despite the current market conditions, institutional demand continues to support Bitcoin’s price action. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $411 million in net inflows on Tuesday, despite a $291 million outflow the previous day. This brings total net inflows for April to $741.9 million.

The growing institutional acceptance of Bitcoin is further highlighted by Goldman Sachs’ filing with the SEC for a Bitcoin premium income ETF, signaling a deeper commitment to crypto from traditional finance. 

BTC could retest low support levels

The BTC/USD 4-hour chart is bearish and efficient as Bitcoin is down by more than 1% in the last 24 hours. 

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Currently, Bitcoin is trading within a rising channel that has been in place since early February. BTC is testing a key resistance level around $76K, which coincides with both the March high and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the October high near $126K. 

BTC/USD 4H Chart

If the bulls regain control and Bitcoin embarks on a sustained break above $76K, it could target $80K, followed by $85K and the 200-day SMA at $88K.

On the downside, Bitcoin has initial support near $71K, with stronger support at $69.6K, the 50-day SMA. A move below $65K would signal a lower low, indicating a shift in market sentiment.

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Crypto World

Aave’s TVL Falls $8B After $293M Kelp DAO Hack

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Aave’s TVL Falls $8B After $293M Kelp DAO Hack

Total value locked on decentralized lending protocol Aave dropped by nearly $8 billion over the weekend after hackers behind the $293 million Kelp DAO exploit borrowed funds on Aave, leaving roughly $195 million in “bad debt” on the protocol and triggering withdrawals.

Data from DeFiLlama shows that Aave’s TVL fell from about $26.4 billion to $18.6 billion by Sunday, losing the top spot as the largest DeFi protocol. 

Aave v3’s lending pools for USDt (USDT) and USDC (USDC) are now at 100% utilization, meaning that more than $5.1 billion worth of stablecoins cannot be withdrawn until new liquidity arrives or borrows are repaid. 

$2,540 is available to be withdrawn from the $2.87 billion USDT pool on Aave v3 at the time of writing. Source: Aave

Aave’s TVL fall shows how rapidly risk from a single security incident can spread throughout the broader, interconnected DeFi lending market, potentially leading to a severe liquidity crisis.

The incident began on Saturday when hackers stole 116,500 Kelp DAO Restaked ETH (rsETH) tokens worth about $293 million from Kelp DAO’s LayerZero-powered bridge and used them as collateral on Aave v3 to borrow wrapped Ether (wETH).

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Crypto analytics platform Lookonchain said the move created about $195 million in “bad debt” on Aave, which contributed to the Aave (AAVE) token tanking nearly 20% from $112 on Saturday at 6:00 pm UTC to $89.5 about 25 hours later. 

Lookonchain noted that some of the largest crypto whales to withdraw funds from Aave were the MEXC crypto exchange and Abraxas Capital at $431 million and $392 million, respectively.

Source: Grvt

Several crypto networks and protocols tied to rsETH or the LayerZero bridge have paused use of the bridge until the problem is resolved, including DeFi platform Curve Finance, stablecoin issuer Ethena and BitGo’s Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC).

Aave has frozen several rsETH, wETH markets

Shortly after the Kelp DAO exploit, Aave said it froze the rsETH markets on both Aave v3 and v4 to prevent any suspicious borrowing and later stated that rsETH on Ethereum mainnet remains fully backed by underlying assets.

WETH reserves also remain frozen on Ethereum, Arbitrum, Base, Mantle and Linea, Aave said.

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This incident marks the first significant stress test of Aave’s “Umbrella” security model, which was introduced in June 2025 to provide automated protection against protocol bad debt while enabling users to earn rewards.

Related: Aave DAO backs V4 mainnet plan in near-unanimous vote

Earlier this month, the Bank of Canada found that Aave avoided bad debt in its v3 market by using overcollateralization, automated liquidations and other strategies that shifted risk to borrowers.

In comments to Cointelegraph, Aave defended its liquidation-based model, framing it as a core safety mechanism that protects lenders while limiting downside for borrowers.

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It comes as Aave parted ways with its longest-standing DeFi risk service provider, Chaos Labs, on April 6, following disagreements over the direction of Aave v4 and budget constraints.

Magazine: Are DeFi devs liable for the illegal activity of others on their platforms?