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Bitcoin funding rates turn most negative since 2023, signaling potential market bottom

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Bitcoin funding rates turn most negative since 2023, signaling potential market bottom

Bitcoin funding rates have hit their most negative levels since 2023, a signal that has historically coincided with market bottoms, as BTC continues to push higher through $75,000.

On a seven-day moving average, funding rates have dropped to around -0.005%, according to Glassnode data.

Funding rates are periodic payments exchanged between long and short traders in perpetual futures contracts, designed to keep prices aligned with the underlying spot market. When the rate is positive, long traders pay short traders, reflecting bullish positioning. When the rate turns negative, shorts pay longs, indicating a market skewed toward downside bets.

Despite the current sustained stretch of negative funding throughout March and April, bitcoin has continued to grind higher, climbing from the low to mid $60,000s to around $75,000.

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Historically, deeply negative funding rates have often coincided with local bottoms in bitcoin’s price. This dynamic typically reflects crowded short positioning, which can create the conditions for a squeeze higher as bearish bets are unwound.

This pattern has played out across multiple market cycles. In March 2020, during the COVID-19 induced market crash, bitcoin fell to around $3,000 as funding rates turned sharply negative.

A similar setup emerged in mid 2021 amid China’s mining ban, when prices dropped to $30,000. Funding rates were also at their most extreme during the FTX collapse in November 2022, when bitcoin bottomed near $15,000.

The trend continued into 2023, when funding rates flipped negative during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis, coinciding with bitcoin briefly dipping below $20,000 before recovering. More recently, episodes such as the yen carry trade unwind in August 2024 and the April 2025 “Liberation Day” selloff also saw negative funding align with local lows.

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The persistence of negative funding rates suggests that bearish positioning remains elevated, even as price action trends higher. This divergence may indicate that the market is climbing a wall of worry, with short positioning potentially acting as fuel for further upside.

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Crypto World

UAE Investors Buy AI Dip as Gulf Conflict Tests Hub Ambitions

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UAE Investors Buy AI Dip as Gulf Conflict Tests Hub Ambitions

United Arab Emirates investors are leaning into the artificial intelligence sell-off rather than running from it, despite the regional conflict testing the Gulf’s ambitions to become a global hub for AI and digital assets. 

New eToro data shared with Cointelegraph on Wednesday show users in the UAE boosted holdings of software and AI infrastructure names whose share prices fell sharply in the first quarter, suggesting they used the downturn to “buy the dip” rather than broadly de-risk.

The pattern suggests UAE investors are staying exposed to long-term AI and digital-infrastructure themes even as the conflict raises fresh risks for data centers, logistics and cross-border technology build-outs in the Gulf. An April 13 report from Deutsche Bank said the shock is more likely to sharpen rather than derail demand for AI, cybersecurity and sovereign digital infrastructure in the region.

Related: Bitcoin falls to lower support as analysts say markets are ignoring key Iran issue

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Josh Gilbert, market analyst at eToro, told Cointelegraph that UAE investors became more selective over where they took risk in Q1, and investor behavior was driven by long-term themes rather than a risk-off mindset. 

He said the clearest signal was across AI infrastructure and software names, pointing to ServiceNow (+125%), Super Micro Computer (+65%), Adobe (+54%) and Oracle (+38%), which all saw significant increases despite market pressure.

What UAE investors bought in Q1, 2026. Source: eToro

On the crypto side, he said that Strategy Inc. remained the eighth-most-held stock, indicating continued exposure to crypto-linked equities.

War puts Gulf AI ambitions under pressure

The resilience comes as the US-Israeli conflict with Iran has exposed new risks for Gulf tech infrastructure. Deutsche Bank cited reported strikes on Amazon Web Services data centers in the UAE and Bahrain and threats against the planned 1GW Stargate campus in Abu Dhabi. 

Gilbert said the conflict was driving volatility, with sharp oil price swings that can ultimately affect tech valuations. Maintaining core exposure to diversified mega-cap tech while rotating within the sector suggests a more nuanced, risk-aware approach, he said.

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Why is the Gulf so well-suited for AI? Source: Deutsche Bank

Deutsche also highlighted that the Gulf, and the UAE in particular, is unlikely to abandon the AI race. The region benefits from cheap energy, an unusually dense pipeline of data center projects, and sovereign wealth funds that control about $5 trillion worldwide in 2025, with Abu Dhabi vehicles among the most aggressive backers of global AI deals, the report said.

Crypto companies stay open as conflict remains

On the ground in Dubai, crypto players say the conflict has slowed but not derailed the city’s hub ambitions. HashKey MENA’s managing director, Ben El-Baz, told Cointelegraph that operations remained “broadly functional,” helped by cloud-based trading and custody systems less dependent on a physical location, even though remote work and travel disruptions were unavoidable.

Related: BTC recovery fragile, Iran war fallout to ‘dominate’ markets in 2026: Analyst

Other companies, including Binance, also continued normal operations, despite reports to the contrary. A Binance spokesperson told Cointelegraph employees were given the option of temporary relocation as a precautionary measure, but the “vast majority” chose to remain, while major conferences such as Token2049 were postponed.

Dubai-based investment firm, Ento Capital, says the conflict is “refining” rather than derailing the GCC story. Senior executive officer Hayssam El Masri told Cointelegraph that investors have shifted from “confidence-driven to risk aware,” but are generally not exiting the region. War-tested resilience and ongoing investment in AI, cloud and crypto infrastructure may ultimately strengthen the GCC’s long-term positioning, he said.

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Regulators bet clear rules will anchor capital

Dubai’s Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (VARA) has continued to roll out its activity-based framework throughout the turmoil, including detailed guidance on token issuance and formal rules for crypto derivatives.

Sean McHugh, VARA’s head of market assurance, told Cointelegraph that in periods of stress, serious market participants do not seek “the lightest-touch jurisdiction, they look for the clearest one,” adding that Dubai’s combination of transparent licensing, visible supervision and active enforcement is meant to persuade institutions to treat the emirate as a strategic base rather than an opportunistic punt.

Magazine: Bitcoin will not hit $1M by 2030, says veteran trader Peter Brandt