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ET Intelligence Group: The FMCG sector is expected to post a steady March-quarter performance, supported by stable rural demand, gradual urban recovery and volume growth even as pricing remains subdued in several segments. While steady raw material costs during most of the quarter are margin supportive, the recent rise in costs of crude-linked inputs such as packaging materials could weigh on margins. Companies with stronger execution, premium portfolios and better distribution reach are expected to outperform, while category-specific challenges and international headwinds may keep performance uneven across the pack.

Hindustan Unilever is expected to report mid-single digit revenue growth led by 4-5% volume growth. Growth is expected to be broad-based, with beauty and wellbeing growing in double-digits, while home care, personal care and foods & beverages are likely to grow in mid-single digits. The demerger of low-margin ice cream business may support operating margin before depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda margin).

ITC may show pressure in the cigarettes segment amid flat volume and higher taxes while displaying resilience in non-cigarette segments. The FMCG and agriculture related business is expected to remain robust, while paperboards business may grow in single digit. The margin for the cigarettes business is likely to contract amid rising leaf tobacco costs and limited pricing hikes.

Nestle India’s consolidated revenue growth is expected to be in double-digits, led largely by volumes in the domestic market while exports may show recovery on a weak base. Normalisation is expected after GST-related disruptions in the previous quarter. However, margin is likely to contract on account of high inflation in the coffee segment.
Asian Paints is likely to report better volume growth for the domestic decorative paints segment on a weak base. Upcoming price increase may boost channel restocking thereby aiding primary sales. International business may be subdued due to the Middle East disruption. Margins are likely to improve on stable raw material prices during the quarter, with the impact of recent crude inflation expected to be limited for the March quarter.

Varun Beverages is expected to report high-single digit revenue growth in the March quarter, with international markets likely to drive momentum through high double-digit volume growth. Ebitda margin is likely to contract, partly due to upsizing in India and ramp-up of snacks in Africa.
Britannia Industries may report double-digit revenue growth led by high-single digit volume expansion due to higher grammage in low-unit packs, which account for about two-third portion of sales. Margins are likely to improve supported by stable raw materials prices, especially in January and February. Dabur India is expected to post modest revenue growth, driven by mid-single digit volume growth in the domestic business. However, its international operations, particularly the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, which contributes around 8% of revenue may remain weak amid geopolitical tensions. Within domestic categories, home and personal care is expected to deliver double-digit growth, while healthcare and foods may see low single-digit expansion.

Colgate-Palmolive India is expected to report low single-digit volume growth on a weak base, after three consecutive quarters of declines. The margin could contract due to higher promotions and advertisement spends.

SINGAPORE: Oil prices rebounded more than 6% on Monday after tumbling more than 9% on Friday on news the Strait of Hormuz is closed again after both the U.S. and Iran said the other party had violated their ceasefire deal by attacking ships over the weekend.

Brent crude futures jumped $6.11, or ‌6.76%, to $96.49 ⁠a barrel ⁠by 2327 GMT and U.S. West Texas Intermediate was at $90.38 a barrel, up $6.53, or 7.79%.

The U.S. military had seized an Iranian cargo ship that tried to run its blockade, U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday, while Iran said it would not participate in a second round of peace talks despite Trump’s threat of renewed airstrikes.

The United States has ⁠maintained a ‌blockade of Iranian ports, while Iran has lifted and then reimposed its own blockade of the Strait, which handled roughly ⁠one-fifth of the world’s oil supply before the war began almost two months ago.

“Oil markets continue to gyrate in response to oscillating social media posts by the U.S. and Iran, rather than the realities on the ground which remain challenging for oil flows to resume in a rapid fashion,” Saul Kavonic, MST Marquee’s head of research, said.

Both contracts posted on Friday their largest daily ‌declines since April 18 after Iran said passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz was open for the remaining ceasefire period and ⁠Trump said Iran had agreed to never close the strait again.
“The announcement of the Strait opening proved premature,” Kavonic said. “Ship owners will be twice shy about heading towards the Strait again without receiving much more confidence that any announced passage is real.”

More than 20 ships passed the strait on Saturday carrying oil, liquefied petroleum gas, metals and fertilizers, Kpler data showed, the highest number of vessels crossing the waterway since March 1.

SINGAPORE: Oil prices jumped, the U.S. dollar lifted from lows and stock markets wobbled on Monday as rising tension in the Middle East kept shipping in and out of the Gulf to a bare minimum, though traders were holding out hope for a resolution.

The ceasefire in the Iran war, due to run until Tuesday, was in doubt after the U.S. seized an Iranian cargo ship and Tehran’s top military command vowed to retaliate.

Iran has re-imposed its de facto closure of the Strait of ‌Hormuz, though Kpler ⁠data showed ⁠that more than 20 vessels carrying oil products, metals, gas and fertiliser passed through it on Saturday, the busiest day for the chokepoint since March 1.

Brent crude futures jumped about 6% to $96 a barrel in early Asia trade. The dollar, which sold off sharply on Friday when the strait briefly opened, rose slightly.

S&P 500 futures fell around 0.7%, a modest move considering the index notched a record closing high on Friday. Asia-Pacific markets were mixed, with Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 down 0.5% and Japan’s benchmark Nikkei up 0.7%.

Bond markets, which rallied on Friday, retreated.
“The headlines look bad; it looks like ⁠there’s disagreement … which ‌has led to a little bit of re-escalation,” said Damien Boey, portfolio strategist at Wilson Asset Management in Sydney. “But I think, ultimately, both sides want to be able to do a deal – that’s part ⁠of the reason why the market’s optimistic and not selling off too much.”

Iran rejected new peace talks with the U.S., its state news agency reported on Sunday, hours after U.S. President Donald Trump said he was sending envoys for talks in Pakistan and would launch new strikes on Iran unless it accepts his terms.

FOCUS ON HORMUZ
In forex news, the euro was down 0.1% at $1.1735 and the yen eased around 0.3% to 159 per dollar, while the Australian and New Zealand dollars fell slightly.

Bonds likewise partially retraced Friday moves, with benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, which had fallen 6.5 basis points on Friday, rising by 3.2 bps ‌to 4.276%.

Investors sold fixed income assets through March in anticipation of higher oil prices driving inflation – something they have tempered a little in recent weeks.

“Our base case (AKA guess) is still resolution to the war. Trump is still focused on November midterm ⁠elections,” said Paul Chew, head of research at Singapore’s Phillip Securities in a note to clients.

Wall Street indexes touched record highs on Friday, supported by expectations of robust first-quarter earnings, the bulk of which come this week. China is expected to hold benchmark lending rates steady on Monday.

British inflation data, U.S. retail sales and European purchasing managers’ index figures are due later in the week, though much of markets’ focus will be on Gulf shipping.

“The critical barometer of geopolitical risk has been distilled into one data point: The number of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz,” said Bob Savage, head of markets macro strategy at BNY.

“Peace talks matter, but the immediate focus is on oil and other supply shortages driving inflation.”

Mumbai: Omkara Asset Reconstruction Company, along with global investor Oaktree Capital Management, has acquired the debt of GTL Infrastructure from Edelweiss Asset Reconstruction Company in a secondary market transaction, people familiar with the matter said.

The all-cash deal, valued at about ₹1,200 crore, involves a transfer of stressed debt between asset reconstruction platforms and investors. It was closed in March. The exposure dates back to 2018, when Edelweiss ARC, in partnership with Oaktree and other investors, had acquired nearly 90% of GTL Infra’s loans, then valued at around ₹4,000 crore.

The telecom tower company had defaulted on debt exceeding ₹11,000 crore, triggering multiple restructuring efforts over the years.

People familiar with the latest transaction said Edelweiss had put the exposure on the block as its fund lifecycle neared maturity, prompting a takeout by Omkara.

“This is a 100% cash deal between ARCs. Edelweiss exited and we acquired the exposure,” an executive at one of the firms said on condition of anonymity.

Investors are betting on improved recovery prospects this time. “The underlying business is more or less stable now. The towers are operational, and that improves the chances of recovery,” the person said.
Omkara is understood to be targeting an exit over the next two years, either through asset sales or a negotiated settlement. “The idea is to close the account in about two years-through sale of assets or other recovery mechanisms,” the person added. Omkara and Edelweiss ARC spokespersons did not respond to requests for comment until press time Sunday.

In 2018, after a steep revenue and Ebitda decline following the exit of key clients including Aircel, RCom and Tata Teleservices, GTL Infrastructure sought to deleverage, with lenders assigning 79.34% of its ₹3,226-crore debt to Edelweiss ARC. The firm submitted multiple restructuring proposals from April 2018 onward, expecting a swift resolution, but lenders did not act on these plans and some retained their exposure.

In November 2022, the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) rejected a plea by Canara Bank to initiate insolvency proceedings, ruling that the company remained a viable going concern and did not meet the threshold for admission under the bankruptcy code.

Mumbai: Markets are set to face fresh turmoil on Monday, with Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz because its ports were being blockaded by the US, forcing oil prices back up, in sharp contrast to the optimism on Friday, when the key maritime channel had been opened up.

Stocks and the rupee are seen facing fresh challenges after having recouped losses and strengthened amid easing geopolitical tensions. Last week, the Sensex and Nifty gained up to 1.3%, while broader indices advanced further – the Nifty Midcap 150 rose 3.5% and Smallcap 250 was up 4.4%, extending gains for the second straight week. The rebound faces hurdles if tensions erupt again.

The rupee may open 30-35 paise weaker against the dollar. It closed at 92.93 per dollar on Friday, up 0.30% from the previous close. But traders expect it to slip below 93 due to higher oil prices, after some ships were fired upon as Iran closed the Strait. Satellite imagery late on Sunday showed ships at a standstill, after they had started moving two days before.

“On Friday, things had cooled down a bit after Iran opened the Strait but since then, there have been some volatilities, as a result of which, oil prices have increased,” said Alok Singh, head of treasury at CSB Bank. “It is now turning out to be a market driven by statements from the US and Iran. We should expect volatility to continue till there is clarity.”

Belligerent statements by both sides are balanced by plans for renewed dialogue in Pakistan this week. Mediators and affected Gulf states are also keenly aware that the end of the two-week ceasefire is days away.

RBI may Help Rupee
“Based on the current news flow, markets on Monday are likely to react primarily to crude prices,” said Shrikant Chouhan, head of equity research, Kotak Securities. “If oil moves back toward $100 per barrel, the market may open near previous closing levels, and then shift focus toward domestic developments.”
When Iran announced on Friday that the Strait of Hormuz would be open as part of peace efforts, Brent crude plunged 9% to $90.38 a barrel, helping Wall Street benchmarks close at record highs later in the day. Before the US-Iran truce, prices were at around $110.
All eyes are on the diplomatic peace talks between the US and Iran, with the ceasefire deadline of April 22 fast approaching, said Siddhartha Khemka, head of research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. “Now that there has been a sharp rally over the past 10 trading sessions, there should be some consolidation,” he said.

Higher oil prices will push the rupee to open lower on Monday before the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) possibly steps in to prevent a sharp fall, traders said. RBI’s move to take dollar demand by oil companies out of the market by providing them a direct supply of the currency through State Bank of India may also prevent a sharp fall in the rupee.

If the war continues for a longer period and crude again goes back to $100-120 per barrel, it will be negative for the economy, and markets could see a worse reaction, said Mahesh Ojha, vice president, research, Kantilal Chhaganlal Securities. “Fourth quarter results from ICICI are marginally better than expected, while HDFC Bank posted a steady quarter, and this could act as a positive trigger on Monday,” he said. “If conditions turn worse, the banking heavyweights could offer support, while if sentiment improves, they could add further upside.”

Since the ceasefire announcement on April 8, the Sensex and Nifty have gained over 5%, while the Nifty Midcap 150 and Nifty Smallcap 250 advanced roughly 10%.

The market seems well-positioned to extend its uptrend, rather than remain range-bound, said Dhupesh Dhameja, derivatives analyst at Samco Securities.

It seems Brock Lesnar has retired.

Following his loss to Oba Femi during the second night of WrestleMania 42, Lesnar left his gloves and wrestling boots in the ring, a typical sign of retirement that fans last saw when AJ Styles retired in January.

Brock Lesnar Leaves Gloves, Boots in the Ring

Lesnar stayed seated in the ring after the match, soon shocking fans in attendance and watching at home when he began to remove his gloves. Fans soon began to voice their disapproval, continuously chanting “No!” as he went.

A visibly emotional and crying Lesnar then began to remove his boots before leaving them, along with the gloves, at the center of the ring.

Paul Heyman eventually entered the ring, and Lesnar made an “x” sign with his arms before the two shared a hug.

Lesnar waved to the crowd and bowed in gratitude before leaving the ring as chants of “Thank you, Lesnar” echoed throughout the arena.

Is This It for Lesnar?

If his actions in the ring truly meant that his match against Femi is his final match, Lesnar joins the list of recently-retired WWE legends.

It can be recalled that John Cena retired in December after tapping out to Gunther. AJ Styles likewise retired in January after a match with “The Career Killer.”

Fan reaction online has been swift as many grappled with the idea that Lesnar his retired, with many expressing their gratitude to one of the greatest combat athletes WWE has ever seen.

One fan on X expressed shock by saying, “4 minutes 45 seconds for what could be Brock’s last match??”

“Brock hasn’t retired yet,” another fan said. “We will see on Raw when Gunther confronts him.”

One pointed out a sad truth for a generation of WWE fans by saying, “Lesnar, Styles, & Cena all announced their retirement in the span of four months.”

Originally published on sportsworldnews.com