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Grayscale Files Spot TAO ETF as Bittensor Network Rebounds from Covenant AI Exit and 38% Drawdown

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR:

  • Grayscale raised TAO weighting to 43.06% in its AI fund, its largest single-asset reallocation ever made.
  • Community miners restored SN3, SN39, and SN81 from open-source code with no central operator involvement needed.
  • Bitwise and Grayscale both filed TAO ETF applications on April 2, with an SEC decision tracked for August 2026.
  • Teutonic targets a 1-trillion-parameter training run in May, timed with the ETF’s peak SEC review window.

Bittensor proved antifragile after a 38% drawdown triggered by Covenant AI’s sudden exit from three major subnets. Community miners restored SN3, SN39, and SN81 entirely from open-source code, with no central operator involved.

Around 70% of supply remained staked throughout the disruption. Spot outflows exceeded $70 million on multiple consecutive days after the crash.

Grayscale’s spot TAO ETF filing and a series of protocol upgrades are now drawing renewed attention to $TAO’s recovery case.

Grayscale’s ETF Filing and Institutional Moves Signal Confidence in Bittensor

Grayscale raised its TAO weighting to 43.06% inside its AI fund on April 7. That move marked the largest single-asset reallocation the fund has ever executed.

It came three days before the Covenant crash became public. The timing led observers to conclude that Grayscale had been running independent structural analysis on the network.

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On April 2, Grayscale filed an S-1 Amendment for a spot TAO ETF on NYSE Arca. Bitwise filed a parallel TAO strategy ETF on the same day.

The SEC decision window is currently tracked for August 2026. However, market analysts note the repricing may not wait for formal approval.

Crypto analyst @Karamata2_2 pointed to Bitcoin and Ethereum as precedents for pre-approval price movement. Both assets moved significantly during their respective SEC review windows.

That pattern places the current filing period as a meaningful near-term catalyst. The $218–$240 demand zone remains the key structural level for $TAO to hold.

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Supporting the institutional picture, GeneralTensor closed a $5 million funding round in March. The round was anchored by a Goldman-backed fund, with DCG also participating.

The TAO Institute launched on April 15 with a dedicated subnet risk index. Together, these moves reflect sustained institutional engagement despite the recent network turbulence.

Protocol Upgrades and Active Subnets Reinforce Bittensor’s Antifragile Case

BIT-0011, the Conviction Mechanism, is a core protocol upgrade shaping Bittensor’s next phase. Subnet founders and stakers lock alpha tokens to earn conviction scores across 30-day intervals.

The staker holding the highest score gains ownership of the subnet. Tokens locked during the active period cannot exit until the interval concludes.

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The community restart of SN3, SN39, and SN81 without founder intervention served as a real stress test. Chain emissions and ownership routing continued without interruption throughout that period.

Karamata2_2 described the outcome as the best live demonstration of antifragility the network could have produced. BIT-0011 formalizes that model at the protocol level going forward.

Teutonic, formerly Templar, is targeting a 1-trillion-parameter decentralized training run for mid-to-late May. Should that milestone land during the ETF application’s most visible SEC review window, attention may return sharply.

The narrative shifts from a network that survived its biggest blowup to one that is still actively scaling. That framing matters most precisely because Covenant’s exit raised doubts about the technology’s depth.

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Active subnets continue producing measurable output across the ecosystem. Chutes AI accounts for 14.39% of daily emissions and processes over 50 billion tokens per day, with a revenue-funded buyback already live.

TargonCompute co-authored an Intel TDX whitepaper and projects $10.4 million in ARR. With 128 active subnets expanding toward 256 and a subnet alpha market cap near $1.03 billion, Bittensor’s operational picture remains intact.

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Crypto World

Current BTC Price Action Shows Dramatic Underperformance: Analyst

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Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Halving, Bitcoin Halving

The current Bitcoin (BTC) market cycle is “dramatically” weaker than the three previous cycles, according to Alex Thorn, the head of firmwide research at investment firm Galaxy.

Thorn compared price action since the April 2024 Bitcoin halving to cycles triggered in 2012, 2016 and 2020; the current cycle shows significantly dampened volatility and lower upside. The all-time high above $125,000 on Oct. 5, 2025 was only 97% above the 2024 halving price around $63,000.

BTC’s price increased by about 9,294% during the 2012 halving cycle, reaching a high of about $1,163, and climbed by about 2,950% during the 2016 halving cycle, reaching a high of about $19,891. The 2020 halving saw a price increase of about 761%.

Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Halving, Bitcoin Halving
A comparison of Bitcoin’s price action in previous halving cycles. Source: Alex Thorn

“Cycle four is dramatically underperforming prior cycles,” Thorn said in an X post, asking, “Is this the new normal, or is it the new normal until it isn’t?”

The decreasing volatility in each successive BTC halving cycle suggests that traditional market dynamics are changing and that BTC’s price may start to be influenced more by other factors, rather than the halving or the four-year cycle market theory.

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The 30-day Bitcoin Volatility Index, which spiked to 9.64% on April 2, 2020, has not been above 3.11% in the current cycle, a reading last tipped on Aug. 24, 2024. At last look, the latest 30-day estimate for that volatility gauge is 1.75%, according to Bitbo data.

Related: Bitcoin bull run ‘still too early’ to call as demand lags exiting capital: Analyst

Critics say current cycle performance ignores the premature all-time high before 2024’s halving

BTC reached what was then the all-time high above the $70,000 level in March 2024 — one month before the April 2024 halving.

The approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States in January 2024 was the primary catalyst for the price pump.

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Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Halving, Bitcoin Halving
The price of BTC hit an all-time high before the April 2024 halving. Source: TradingView

This historic anomaly of BTC hitting a new all-time high before the halving skewed the current cycle’s price performance, critics of Thorn’s analysis said.

Bitcoin drawdowns have also become less severe, as volatility has declined, according to Fidelity Digital Assets.

Previous Bitcoin bear markets have seen declines between 80% and 90%, according to Zack Wainwright, a Fidelity Digital Assets research analyst.

However, Bitcoin’s crash to $60,000 from the all-time high above $125,000 represents a decline just north of 50%, Fidelity’s analysis noted.

In March, Jan van Eck, CEO of asset management company VanEck, said that BTC is close to bottoming out and that he expects the price to begin gradually rising again in 2026. 

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At last look, the biggest crypto was trading at about $74,703, up almost 5% in the last seven days, according to TradingView data.

Magazine: Bitcoin will not hit $1M by 2030, says veteran trader Peter Brandt