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RaveDAO’s RAVE token collapses 90% in a day as exchange probes widen

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RaveDAO's RAVE token collapses 90% in a day as exchange probes widen

Three wallets, one denial, and $5.7 billion in market cap gone in 48 hours.

RaveDAO’s RAVE crashed 90% over 24 hours as crypto exchanges Binance and Bitget opened investigations into the trading activity that catapulted the token to a $6 billion market cap last week.

Bitget CEO Gracy Chen confirmed the probe on X, and Binance co-CEO Richard Teng subsequently said the exchange was reviewing the matter and would “always” do its part to examine signs of market misconduct. Gate.io was also named in the original allegations from onchain investigator ZachXBT, who has offered a $25,000 bounty for whistleblowers with evidence of the parties involved.

The collapse accelerated after the project’s Saturday denial rather than stabilizing on it.

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RaveDAO posted a six-part X thread stating the team “is not engaged in, nor responsible for, recent price action.”

The thread did not address any of the specific onchain allegations that prompted the scrutiny, including the concentration of roughly 90% of the 1 billion RAVE supply across three Gnosis Safe multi-signature wallets attributed to the team, or the millions of tokens transferred to exchanges shortly before the rally began.

The original rally took RAVE from about $0.25 to $27.33 in nine days, a 10,800% move that triggered $44 million in liquidations on Friday, just behind bitcoin and ether, with the bulk of them from short sellers positioned against the token.

Investigators flagged a “bait and liquidate” pattern in which visible token transfers to exchanges suggested incoming sell pressure, drawing traders into short positions before those tokens were withdrawn and prices ripped higher, forcing shorts to cover at progressively worse levels.

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RaveDAO presents itself as a Web3 entertainment platform offering onchain ticketing for electronic music events, tracing its origins to a 2023 Istanbul afterparty. The project reported about $3 million in 2025 revenue and lists partnerships with Binance, OKX, Bitget, and Polygon.

RaveDAO’s thread did confirm the team plans to “liquidate portions of unlocked tokens” when appropriate to fund operations and marketing, and said it was “exploring appropriate models, including price-triggered or performance-triggered locks, that tie team incentives to ecosystem growth.”

It did not commit to any specific lockup mechanism or timeline, however.

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Crypto World

Current BTC Price Action Shows Dramatic Underperformance: Analyst

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Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Halving, Bitcoin Halving

The current Bitcoin (BTC) market cycle is “dramatically” weaker than the three previous cycles, according to Alex Thorn, the head of firmwide research at investment firm Galaxy.

Thorn compared price action since the April 2024 Bitcoin halving to cycles triggered in 2012, 2016 and 2020; the current cycle shows significantly dampened volatility and lower upside. The all-time high above $125,000 on Oct. 5, 2025 was only 97% above the 2024 halving price around $63,000.

BTC’s price increased by about 9,294% during the 2012 halving cycle, reaching a high of about $1,163, and climbed by about 2,950% during the 2016 halving cycle, reaching a high of about $19,891. The 2020 halving saw a price increase of about 761%.

Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Halving, Bitcoin Halving
A comparison of Bitcoin’s price action in previous halving cycles. Source: Alex Thorn

“Cycle four is dramatically underperforming prior cycles,” Thorn said in an X post, asking, “Is this the new normal, or is it the new normal until it isn’t?”

The decreasing volatility in each successive BTC halving cycle suggests that traditional market dynamics are changing and that BTC’s price may start to be influenced more by other factors, rather than the halving or the four-year cycle market theory.

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The 30-day Bitcoin Volatility Index, which spiked to 9.64% on April 2, 2020, has not been above 3.11% in the current cycle, a reading last tipped on Aug. 24, 2024. At last look, the latest 30-day estimate for that volatility gauge is 1.75%, according to Bitbo data.

Related: Bitcoin bull run ‘still too early’ to call as demand lags exiting capital: Analyst

Critics say current cycle performance ignores the premature all-time high before 2024’s halving

BTC reached what was then the all-time high above the $70,000 level in March 2024 — one month before the April 2024 halving.

The approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States in January 2024 was the primary catalyst for the price pump.

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Bitcoin Price, Bitcoin Analysis, Halving, Bitcoin Halving
The price of BTC hit an all-time high before the April 2024 halving. Source: TradingView

This historic anomaly of BTC hitting a new all-time high before the halving skewed the current cycle’s price performance, critics of Thorn’s analysis said.

Bitcoin drawdowns have also become less severe, as volatility has declined, according to Fidelity Digital Assets.

Previous Bitcoin bear markets have seen declines between 80% and 90%, according to Zack Wainwright, a Fidelity Digital Assets research analyst.

However, Bitcoin’s crash to $60,000 from the all-time high above $125,000 represents a decline just north of 50%, Fidelity’s analysis noted.

In March, Jan van Eck, CEO of asset management company VanEck, said that BTC is close to bottoming out and that he expects the price to begin gradually rising again in 2026. 

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At last look, the biggest crypto was trading at about $74,703, up almost 5% in the last seven days, according to TradingView data.

Magazine: Bitcoin will not hit $1M by 2030, says veteran trader Peter Brandt