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Bitcoin price breaks above $76K ahead of potential U.S.-Iran deal

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Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin, and new utility protocols

Bitcoin price reclaimed the $76,000 mark on Tuesday as investors await confirmation of a potential peace deal between the U.S. and Iran.

Summary

  • Bitcoin reclaimed $76K after dipping below $74K, rising 2% to an intraday high of $76,483 as investors bought the recent pullback.
  • Price action remained tied to U.S.-Iran tensions, with markets awaiting clarity on a potential peace deal ahead of a Wednesday deadline.
  • Analysts warn BTC could target $80K on a deal, while prolonged conflict risks a drop below the $75K psychological support level.

According to data from crypto.news, Bitcoin (BTC) price rose 2% to an intraday high of $76,483 on Tuesday before stabilizing around $76,150 at press time.

Bitcoin edged higher today as investors bought the dip in its price below $74,000 on Monday after reports emerged that Iran may not be attending the emergency peace summit with the U.S. in Islamabad, as the U.S. continues to place its naval blockade on Iranian traffic moving through the Strait of Hormuz.

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On Monday, tensions between the two nations escalated after the U.S. intercepted and seized an Iranian ship carrying military supplies, following which Iran retaliated with its own targeted missile strikes against regional naval assets.

As such, diplomatic efforts to end the US-Israel war on Iran remain uncertain, with Tehran saying it will not negotiate on a deal with the U.S. under its terms or under a constant military threat.

While U.S. President Donald Trump has called for a final negotiation deadline by Tuesday, he extended the timeline to Wednesday evening Washington time for further diplomatic deliberations.

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Despite his repeated claims that Iran is ready to sign on a deal, sources from within Tehran have suggested otherwise, with officials stating they will agree only if a deal is made under specific conditions set by Iran.

Earlier, Iran had asked for several concessions, including billions in reparations for wartime damages to the nation’s infrastructure and the right to continue its uranium enrichment for peaceful energy purposes. However, the U.S. has firmly opposed Iran possessing any form of nuclear power, with Trump noting that such capabilities are a non-negotiable red line.

Trump has indicated that there may not be a further extension of the deadline after tomorrow if Iran fails to cooperate fully with the proposed terms.

The ongoing conflict has left the Strait of Hormuz blocked for over ten days, effectively cutting short global energy supplies, with economists warning that a continued stalemate could lead to a global recession.

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Despite no concrete signs of whether Iran would go with the U.S. proposal, Bitcoin price has benefited from dropping crude oil prices today. Notably, WTI crude oil fell back to $86 while Brent crude prices retracted to under $95. Meanwhile, the bellwether cryptocurrency has also benefited from a potential investor capital rotation from gold, which has fallen significantly today.

For many traders, the outlook for Bitcoin price is largely tied to how successfully the deal will play out tomorrow. If a potential deal is reached, Bitcoin bulls could target a rally toward $80,000 in the coming days.

On the contrary, if Iran continues to resist diplomatic terms, BTC could drop below the $75,000 major psychological support. This could further erode investor confidence and trigger a potential mass liquidation event across the broader crypto market.

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Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

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Kevin Warsh’s Senate hearing: What to expect

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Fed Chair nominee Warsh: Fed extended its reach and stretched its hard-earned credibility

Kevin Warsh, former member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

Courtesy: Hoover Institution

Federal Reserve chair nominee Kevin Warsh travels to Capitol Hill on Tuesday to convince lawmakers he can carry out a presidential push for lower interest rates while remaining free of political constraints in setting policy.

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In a much-anticipated hearing before the Senate Banking Committee, the former Fed governor will face questioning over a variety of subjects, from monetary policy to banking regulation to his own complicated personal finances

None likely will be more important than establishing the boundaries between the Fed’s decision-making and politics.

“He has a tricky communication question,” said Bill English, a professor at the Yale School of Management and the Fed’s director of monetary affairs from 2010-15, a period that overlapped with Warsh’s time there.

“I suspect that the way he’ll handle that is by being clear that his views are that rates can likely go lower, maybe a fair amount lower,” English said. “But at the same time, when asked directly about independence, be clear that he values independence. He thinks that independence is important and that a less independent Fed in the medium and long term would be a bad thing for the country.”

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Political independence has been a key question surrounding the search for a successor to current Chair Jerome Powell.

Warsh views on independence

In remarks he’s scheduled to deliver to the committee at the hearing’s start, Warsh issued a qualified endorsement of Fed independence.

“So let me be clear: monetary policy independence is essential. Monetary policymakers must act in the nation’s interest, their decisions the product of analytic rigor, meaningful deliberation, and unclouded decision-making,” he said in prepared text.

However, he noted that doesn’t believe independence is endangered when the central bank’s actions are questioned by elected leaders, and said “the Fed must stay in its lane” and not veer into “fiscal and social policies where it has neither authority nor expertise.”

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Fed Chair nominee Warsh: Fed extended its reach and stretched its hard-earned credibility

Warsh likely will face a bevy of questions about his political allegiance to President Donald Trump, who made no secret that a willingness to lower interest rates was a litmus test for his nominee. Trump nominated Warsh in late January, following a lengthy search process that included nearly a dozen candidates.

Congressional Democrats, including ranking member Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., are expected to push the nominee on the independence question, as well as raise questions over his finances.

If confirmed, Warsh would easily be the wealthiest Fed chair in the central bank’s 113-year history. Disclosures filed ahead of the hearing indicate he would have to divest himself of a significant level of holdings to be in compliance with what have become strict Fed rules on where senior officials are allowed to invest.

Warren met with Warsh on Thursday and left with “deep concerns that if he is confirmed, he will be Donald Trump’s sock puppet.” She also alleged that Warsh had not disclosed “more than $100 million in assets.”

The nomination itself may take a while to get out of committee independent of any concerns about Warsh’s views.

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Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., has vowed to hold up the nomination until an investigation is completed from the U.S. Attorney’s Office in Washington, D.C. into renovations at Fed headquarters. A court overturned U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro’s subpoena of Powell, but she has vowed to appeal.

White House officials are confident Warsh ultimately will meet the approval of the committee, where Republicans hold a 12-10 advantage.

“My expectation is that after everybody sees him in his hearing and sees how deft on his feet he is, how knowledgeable about the Fed he is, and how good his ideas are about returning the Fed towards a place where it’s nonpartisan, that it’s going to be hard to resist voting ‘yes,’” National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said Monday on CNBC.

Forging consensus

Once in office, Warsh will head a Federal Open Market Committee populated with officials who have expressed misgivings about the next steps in monetary policy. While markets expect the committee to be on hold the rest of the year, officials themselves still have penciled in a cut and Warsh has expressed support for lower rates as well.

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Warsh will “come in with an idea of what he would like to think about and do, and then the economy will deliver what we actually work on,” San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said last week. “You work with the economy you have, and you plan for the economy that you’re supposed to achieve.”

As for his approach beyond rate-setting, Warsh last year called for regime change at the Fed and charged that current officials have a “credibility deficit” that he wants to fix.

English, the former Fed official, said his experience with Warsh was one who could work with others, a quality needed at the consensus-driven central bank.

“He was not somebody who was really difficult for the other policymakers or for the staff or for anybody to work with,” English said. “So I’m not sure he’s going to go in and really try to shake things up right away without moving the other policy makers along. To move them along, he’s going to have to be making arguments and making his case in a reasonable way.”

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Crypto Scam Targets Stranded Ships in Strait of Hormuz: Report

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Crypto Scam Targets Stranded Ships in Strait of Hormuz: Report

Fraudulent actors posing as Iranian authorities have reportedly sent messages to shipping companies whose vessels remain stranded west of the Strait of Hormuz, demanding payment in cryptocurrency for safe passage.

On Monday, maritime risk company Marisks issued a warning saying unknown groups had contacted shipowners claiming to represent Iranian security services and requesting transit “fees” in Bitcoin (BTC) or USDt (USDT) in exchange for clearance through the strait, according to Reuters.

“These specific messages are a scam,” Marisks reportedly said, adding that they do not originate from Iranian authorities. Tehran has not publicly commented on the claims.

The alerts come as the strategic waterway remains largely closed following the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy flows, previously handled around one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas exports before hostilities escalated in the region.

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Earlier this month, reports said Iran was considering charging ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz a tariff payable in Bitcoin, with empty tankers allowed free passage while others could be charged around $1 per barrel of oil.

Related: Iran views BTC as strategic asset, but USDt still dominates oil tolls: BPI

Crypto “transit fee” scam demands verification docs

The reported scam messages instruct recipients to submit documentation for verification before being assigned a “fee” payable in cryptocurrency, after which safe transit would allegedly be granted at a pre-agreed time.

In one example cited by Marisks, the message stated that Iranian security services would assess eligibility before determining payment in BTC or USDt, framing crypto transfers as a condition for unimpeded passage.

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Trump says he won’t allow Iran to impose tolls on ships. Source: The Middle East

The company also suggested that at least one vessel recently targeted by gunfire while attempting to exit the strait may have received such fraudulent instructions, though the information has not been independently verified.

Cointelegraph reached out to Marisks for comment but did not receive an immediate response.

Related: Bitcoin community weighs in on reports of Iran’s crypto toll for oil ships

Crypto payments to Iran could trigger sanctions risks: Chainalysis

Shipping companies considering paying transit fees in cryptocurrency to Iran could face serious sanctions exposure, according to Chainalysis senior intelligence analyst Kaitlin Martin.

She told Cointelegraph that any payments linked to Iranian-controlled waterways could be treated as “material support,” potentially violating US and international sanctions targeting entities such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

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