Crypto World
Bitcoin Short Squeeze Bets Return With Market ‘Heavily Short and Bearish’
Bitcoin (BTC) sought to match ten-week highs on Tuesday as market participants bet on a new short squeeze.
Key points:
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Bitcoin is due a fresh short squeeze as funding rates uniquely stay negative as price grinds higher, say market pundits.
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Short-term targets include a trip to $85,000 in the coming weeks.
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Bitcoin bulls still need to clear the nearby 21-week trend line keeping price pinned since October 2025.
“Cannon is loaded” for Bitcoin short squeeze
Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD approaching $77,000 for the first time this weekly candle.
A slight comedown into the Wall Street open meant that price continued to coil below a large area of resistance.
Mixed signals over the US-Iran war continued on the day, with Iran denying that its delegations had arrived in Pakistan for a new round of negotiations with the US. As Cointelegraph reported, markets offered only a muted reaction to the latest closure of the Strait of Hormuz oil route.
Among Bitcoin traders, a sense of cautious optimism was slowly growing.
“A period of consolidation, but clearly upwards pattern,” crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe wrote in an X post.
“This means that there’s likely more upside to come for Bitcoin towards the $85,000 area.”
Van de Poppe gave a time frame of “two to three weeks” for that level to come into focus, reiterating earlier comments about Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq.
Others focused on ongoing negative funding rates on exchanges, despite price rising.
“We’ve never actually gotten one when the chart was grinding up. NEVER. It only occurred during the local BOTTOMS,” trader Osemka noted on X alongside charts showing past negative funding periods.
Osemka suggested that “something is brewing beneath” the surface, just as BTC/USD eyed a reclaim of lost support.
Responding, crypto market intelligence platform Decode agreed, seeing the potential for another short squeeze.
“What this tells you is that the market is heavily short and bearish, and Bitcoin is setting up for a short squeeze. The cannon is loaded, bulls just need to light the fuse…,” it told X followers.
CME gap thins with BTC up against resistance
Multiple lines in the sand for bulls lie immediately above the spot price.
Related: Bitcoin can grow ‘probably a lot bigger’ than $30T+ gold market — Analysis
These include the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA), true market mean, and average buy-in price for investors of the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Trader Daan Crypto Trades observed that price had also filled the latest weekend “gap” in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures market.
“$BTC Closed a big part of the gap from this weekend but still not everything. Market still just following the headlines and no $STRC raises for now. So we will just patiently wait and see,” he commented.
This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research before making any decisions. Cointelegraph makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information presented, including forward-looking statements, and will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on this content.
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong announced Monday the launch of Agentic.market, a marketplace platform for Coinbase AI agents that allows autonomous software agents to discover, compare, and purchase services from other agents without API keys, paying in USDC through the x402 payment protocol, which has already settled approximately 165 million transactions across more than 480,000 transacting agents.
Summary
- The platform organizes services into seven categories: Inference, Data, Media, Search, Social, Infrastructure, and Trading, with launch providers including OpenAI and Venice for inference, Bloomberg and CoinGecko for data, and AWS Lambda and Alchemy for infrastructure.
- Armstrong described the platform as the “discovery layer” for the agentic economy, saying “for the agentic economy to overtake the human economy, agents need a way to discover services.”
- The x402 protocol received backing from Google, Microsoft, Amazon Web Services, American Express, Mastercard, Visa, Cloudflare, Shopify, Stripe, and others earlier this month, giving the payment standard broad institutional infrastructure support.
Coinbase AI agents have a dedicated marketplace for the first time. Agentic.market, launched Monday by Coinbase’s x402 protocol team and publicly backed by CEO Brian Armstrong, is designed to function as what Coinbase engineer Erik Reppel, who created the x402 protocol, described as “an app store for agents.” It gives autonomous AI systems a structured way to find services, evaluate them, and pay for them at machine speed using USDC without any human in the loop.
“For the agentic economy to overtake the human economy, agents need a way to discover services,” Armstrong wrote on X in backing the launch. He has previously predicted that “there will be more AI agents transacting online than humans very soon.”
The platform has two distinct interfaces: a web interface for humans to browse and evaluate available services, and a programmatic layer that allows AI agents to search, filter, and integrate new capabilities at runtime without human intervention. An agent on the platform receives both “skills,” code libraries for using a service, and a wallet that enables it to buy and sell autonomously.
How Agentic.market Works and What Is Available at Launch
The marketplace requires no approval process for providers to join. Any service compatible with the x402 standard can be listed. The seven categories at launch cover the full range of capabilities an AI agent might need: inference services for running AI models, data services for market and financial information, media, search, social network access, infrastructure including cloud compute, and trading services for executing financial transactions.
Named services available at launch include OpenAI and Venice in inference, Bloomberg and CoinGecko for financial data, LinkedIn and X for social, and AWS Lambda and Alchemy for infrastructure. The marketplace builds on a backend index called Bazaar, which tracks x402 enabled services and their usage metrics, and turns that raw data into searchable listings with live pricing, performance metrics, and integration guides.
Coinbase reported that 85% of the 165 million x402 transactions already settled have occurred on Base, Coinbase’s Layer 2 network built on Ethereum, indicating that the agentic payment economy is already substantially operational rather than hypothetical.
The x402 Protocol and Who Backs It
The x402 protocol, named after the rarely used HTTP status code 402 Payment Required, was first launched by Coinbase in May 2025. It is designed for machine-to-machine payments: fast, low-cost, requiring no identity verification because the agents themselves hold wallets rather than needing to satisfy Know Your Customer requirements tied to human account holders.
Earlier this month, the x402 Foundation was formed to govern the protocol with support from Google, Microsoft, Amazon Web Services, American Express, Mastercard, Visa, Cloudflare, Shopify, Stripe, Circle, Base, Polygon Labs, the Solana Foundation, and others. That institutional backing converts x402 from a Coinbase product into a broadly supported open standard, which significantly increases its probability of becoming the default payment layer for agentic commerce.
What This Means for Crypto Markets and USDC
Agentic.market is a direct use case expansion for USDC. Every transaction on the platform settles in USDC. As agent-to-agent commerce scales, it creates a structural demand layer for stablecoins that does not depend on speculation, market cycles, or geopolitical events. Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire has projected that “literally billions of AI agents” will be transacting on blockchains within three to five years.
For AI tokens and the infrastructure layer of the crypto AI sector, a Coinbase-backed, institutionally supported marketplace with 480,000 active agents already transacting is a concrete commercial proof point rather than a thesis. For observers tracking the AI bubble debate, the distinction matters: whether AI generates durable revenue through actual transaction volume is the core question, and Agentic.market provides a new data source for that answer.
Crypto World
Bitcoin (BTC) price holds above a make-or-break level before Warsh confirmation hearing
Bitcoin is trading with a positive bias above the $75,000 level, which CoinDesk recently highlighted as a critical threshold for bulls to maintain control.
Still, some observers are urging caution, noting that prices need to hold above that level through Wednesday, when the U.S.–Iran ceasefire is set to end.
“The ceasefire is set to expire Wednesday evening Washington time, and the market has to price two paths, extension and de-escalation versus renewed escalation and oil stress. That is why even with BTC strong, the tape can still gap fast. It is headline risk with a timer,” analysts at Marex said in an email to CoinDesk.
An escalation could take oil prices well above the March high of $119, potentially sending Asian and global equity markets into a tailspin. The question remains whether bitcoin, which held relatively steady around $70,000 during the March conflict, will remain resilient or come under pressure along with the broader market.
As of the time of writing, no delegation from Iran had departed for the talks in Pakistan. On Monday, President Donald Trump warned of a major escalation in the conflict if the ceasefire ends without a deal.
Also on analysts’ radar is Kevin Warsh’s nomination hearing for Federal Reserve chair, scheduled for Tuesday. Warsh has a reputation as an “inflation hawk” who opposed interest-rate cuts and quantitative easing following the 2008 crash.
So what he says during the session could move markets. “His remarks could act as a near-term catalyst, particularly if they reinforce expectations of policy easing,” digital assets trading firm QCP Capital said in a note.
Speaking of the broader market, major cryptocurrencies such as ether (ETH), solana (SOL), and XRP (XRP) have risen by less than 2% over the past 24 hours, underperforming bitcoin. Smaller tokens such as XLM and TON have risen by more than 5% each. The CoinDesk Memecoin Index is up over 3%.
Notably, the DeFi Select Index added 2%, which is surprising given the industry-wide fallout from the weekend hack of KelpDAO. That saw the attacker drain rsETH, a liquid restaking token widely used as collateral on several DeFi platforms.
Decentralized lender Aave has taken the biggest hit, with the total value of crypto assets locked on its platform falling to $16 billion, down nearly $10 billion since before the hack.
Aave’s native token, AAVE, has declined 18% to $93 since the hack. At the same time, open interest in futures tied to the token hit a record high of 3.59 million tokens. Increased demand for leveraged bets points to potential for more volatility ahead. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
What’s trending
Today’s signal
The chart shows XRP’s daily price swings in candlestick format. The white line represents the average price over 100 days and the yellow line represents the prolonged bear market.
XRP remains below both the average and the trendline even as market leaders bitcoin and ether (ETH) have topped these levels on their respective price charts.
Until the price reclaims both the 100-day average and the downtrend line, momentum remains comparatively weak versus BTC and ETH, which have already established firmer bullish structures.
TLDR
- UK officials invited Bybit leadership to London to discuss expansion and crypto regulation.
- CEO Ben Zhou confirmed meetings with the Financial Conduct Authority and the House of Lords.
- Bybit ranks as the second-largest crypto exchange by CoinGecko.
- Zhou said the UK wants major crypto firms to establish bases and create jobs.
- The outreach coincides with UK Fintech Week and Treasury plans for stablecoins and tokenization.
UK officials have invited crypto exchange Bybit to London to explore expansion and regulatory talks. The outreach targets job creation and renewed digital asset activity. CEO Ben Zhou confirmed meetings with regulators and lawmakers this week.
Bybit Signals Potential UK Engagement
Economic development officials linked to the UK government invited Bybit executives to London this week. They aim to attract large crypto firms and rebuild domestic innovation activity. Zhou said officials want major businesses to establish bases and create jobs.
He confirmed meetings with the Financial Conduct Authority and House of Lords representatives. He said discussions will cover forthcoming pro-crypto regulations and payment reforms. “They are very eager to invite big business,” Zhou said during Paris Blockchain Week.
Bybit ranks as the second-largest crypto exchange by CoinGecko. The exchange trails only Binance in global trading volumes. Zhou founded Bybit in 2018 and later shifted the headquarters to Dubai.
He moved the company from Singapore to Dubai in 2022. Binance also established operations in the UAE in 2025. Large exchanges helped attract smaller crypto firms to the region.
UK Targets Momentum Built by Bybit and Binance in UAE
Zhou said major exchanges created momentum in the UAE market. He explained that smaller firms followed after Bybit and Binance announced regional plans. “Once we announced we’re going to be there, smaller players followed,” Zhou said.
He said the UK has yet to build similar traction. He added that policymakers want to replicate the UAE model. “There hasn’t been any momentum built in the UK,” Zhou said.
The invitation coincides with UK Fintech Week events in London. The Treasury plans to revamp payment systems using stablecoins and tokenization. Officials have not disclosed the specific department behind the invitation.
Zhou said an economic development board extended the offer directly. He said the board promised a direct line to the prime minister. “There is an agenda to push for innovation, especially in crypto,” Zhou said.
The Treasury and Economic Secretary, Lucy Rigby, has not issued any comments. The Department for Science, Innovation and Technology also declined to respond. The Financial Conduct Authority had not replied at press time.
The outreach follows recent geopolitical tensions affecting the UAE. Iran launched direct attacks during the U.S.-Israel war that began on Feb. 28. Thousands of residents and tourists have left the country.
The Financial Times reported that one in eight British residents departed the UAE. Zhou said UK officials observed capital and company outflows to the Gulf region. He stated that London sees this period as an opportunity.
“The UK government has seen the outflow of money and companies going to the UAE,” Zhou said. He added that officials want to regain that activity. Zhou said the current timing aligns with that objective.
Crypto World
Almost 80% of Japanese institutional investors are eyeing crypto for their portfolios by 2029
Attitudes to crypto investment in Japan are shifting from cautious interest to active portfolio planning, according to a survey by Nomura and its digital asset arm, Laser Digital, with almost 80% of the country’s institutional investors saying they plan to add crypto in the next three years.
The shift reflects a growing view of crypto as a diversification tool. Many of the respondents cited low correlation with traditional asset classes as a key reason for adding exposure. Allocations, though, remain restrained, with more than half targeting between 2% and 5% of their portfolios.
It also reflects improving sentiment: 31% percent of respondents described their outlook on crypto as positive, compared with 25% in 2024, while negative sentiment declined to 18%.
The findings come as Japan refines one of the more established regulatory frameworks for digital assets among major economies. The country was an early mover in regulating crypto exchanges following the Mt. Gox collapse in 2014. Recent efforts have focused on integrating digital assets into existing financial laws, including updates tied to the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act.
That clarity has helped foster a domestic crypto ecosystem anchored by major companies such as SBI Holdings, the financial conglomerate that operates one of Japan’s largest crypto businesses, and bitFlyer, a long-standing exchange. Traditional financial institutions have also entered the industry.
Nomura, one of the world’s largest financial services companies, founded Laser Digital in 2022 to expand into trading, asset management and venture investing, while firms like Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group have explored tokenized deposits and stablecoins.
Interest is expanding beyond simple price exposure. More than 60% of respondents expressed interest in income-generating strategies such as staking and lending, as well as derivatives and tokenized assets. That suggests investors are beginning to treat crypto less as a speculative trade and more as a broader financial toolkit.
Stablecoins are another area of focus. Sixty-three percent of respondents identified potential use cases, including treasury management, cross-border payments and foreign exchange transactions. Trust appears to be highest for stablecoins issued by major financial institutions, highlighting the importance of familiar counterparties.
Still, barriers remain. Investors pointed to challenges including the lack of established valuation frameworks, counterparty risks such as fraud or asset loss, and regulatory uncertainty. High volatility also continues to weigh on adoption.
Even so, those concerns are shifting. Rather than debating whether to invest, institutions are now focused on how to do it.
The survey was conducted in December and January and gathered responses from 518 investment professionals, including institutional investors, family offices and public-interest organizations.
The most urgent crypto scam news on Capitol Hill arrived Tuesday as the House Homeland Security Committee held a joint subcommittee hearing on how transnational criminal organizations use crypto fraud, online scams, and digital extortion to steal from Americans.
Summary
- The FBI’s 2024 Internet Crime Complaint Center report documented $16.6 billion in total scam losses, with crypto investment fraud alone accounting for $5.8 billion.
- The Huione Group, a Cambodia-based conglomerate designated by FinCEN as a primary money laundering concern, received over $39.6 billion in 2025, functioning as core financial infrastructure for scam networks.
- US authorities seized more than $15 billion in illicit proceeds tied to scam activity in 2025 and sanctioned 146 Prince Group targets in October, marking some of the largest enforcement actions in crypto history.
Crypto scam news reached Congress Tuesday morning as the Subcommittees on Border Security and Enforcement and Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Protection convened in Room 310 of the Cannon House Office Building for a joint hearing titled “Online Scams, Crypto Fraud, and Digital Extortion: An Examination of How Transnational Criminal Networks Target Americans.”
Cynthia Kaiser, senior vice president of the Halcyon Ransomware Research Center, testified as a witness, providing technical context on how criminal networks use digital extortion tools alongside crypto investment fraud schemes to maximize victim losses and minimize traceability.
The hearing draws on a documented surge in transnational criminal activity. The FBI’s IC3 report recorded 859,532 scam complaints in 2024 with $16.6 billion in losses. Investment fraud, predominantly pig butchering schemes operated from Southeast Asia, caused $5.8 billion of that total. Victims aged 60 and older bore the highest losses of any age group.
The Scale of the Criminal Infrastructure Being Examined
The networks at the center of the hearing are not loosely organized. They are industrial operations with real estate, corporate structures, and international banking relationships. The Chainalysis 2026 Crypto Crime Report documented that the Huione Group received $39.6 billion in transactions in 2025 alone after FinCEN designated it a primary money laundering concern under the USA PATRIOT Act. Prince Group, a Cambodia-based transnational criminal organization operating forced labor scam compounds, was sanctioned by OFAC in October 2025 with 146 targets designated across the network.
The pig butchering model is the dominant scheme: scammers build trust with victims over weeks or months through fake relationships before directing them to fraudulent crypto investment platforms. Once funds are deposited, the platforms close. Proceeds move through shell companies, crypto wallets, and professional money laundering networks based in Southeast Asia before being converted or consolidated. TRM Labs found that these networks have become more professionalized each year, with AI tools now reducing the time required to build trust with victims.
What Enforcement Has Achieved and What Remains
US authorities have escalated enforcement significantly. They crypto seized over $61 million in Tether tied to pig butchering in North Carolina alone, and the October 2025 Prince Group seizure involving approximately 127,271 Bitcoin was described as the largest financial forfeiture in American history at the time. Total illicit proceeds seized or forfeited in 2025 linked to scam activity exceeded $15 billion according to Chainalysis.
The persistent structural challenge is jurisdiction. The criminal networks operate from countries with weak law enforcement cooperation agreements. Victims move funds through US-based crypto exchanges before the money reaches overseas wallets, making the domestic on-ramp the most accessible intervention point. Congress is considering legislation including the Dismantle Foreign Scam Syndicates Act, which would establish an interagency task force and authorize targeted sanctions against compound operators and their financial intermediaries.
What the Hearing Signals for Crypto Regulation
The hearing is notable for what it does not do: it does not frame crypto itself as the problem. The focus is on transnational criminal organizations exploiting the technology. That framing matters for the regulatory environment around the CLARITY Act and stablecoin legislation, where the industry has argued that clear rules reduce illicit use by creating regulated on-ramps with strong compliance requirements. A Congress that treats crypto as a tool of crime will write different legislation than one that treats it as infrastructure being exploited by criminals who would otherwise use other payment rails.
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CoinDesk Indices presents its daily market update, highlighting the performance of leaders and laggards in the CoinDesk 20 Index.
The CoinDesk 20 is currently trading at 2101.48, down 0.2% (-4.06) since 4 p.m. ET on Monday.
Ten of 20 assets are trading higher.
Leaders: XLM (+3.3%) and AAVE (+1.9%).
Laggards: ETH (-0.9%) and APT (-0.6%).
The CoinDesk 20 is a broad-based index traded on multiple platforms in several regions globally.
US Reps. Young Kim (R-CA) and Sam Liccardo (D-CA) introduced the bipartisan Payments Access and Consumer Efficiency (PACE) Act on Tuesday, proposing a federal framework that would give fintechs and crypto companies direct access to Federal Reserve payment rails.
The bill targets a longstanding bottleneck in US payments. Currently, only legacy banks can connect directly to the Fed’s clearing and settlement systems, charging nonbank providers markups of up to 100 times the Fed’s own per-item fee, according to the bill’s fact sheet.
What the PACE Act Would Change
Under the proposed law, qualified nonbank payment companies could register for an optional federal supervisory framework administered by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC).
Registered providers would gain access to Fedwire, FedNow, and FedACH.
The bill requires providers to maintain 1:1 reserves in safe, liquid assets and meet risk management and recordkeeping standards.
It also aligns with the “skinny master accounts” concept championed by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller.
Crypto exchange Kraken became the first digital asset firm to receive such an account earlier in March.
The measure arrives alongside other pro-crypto legislative efforts, including the GENIUS Act for stablecoins.
However, the PACE Act focuses narrowly on payment infrastructure rather than market structure or token classification.
“We can reduce the burden of bank fees borne by too many American families by enabling broader access to innovative payment systems that deliver cheaper, faster, more reliable service,” Eleanor Terrett reported, citing Rep. Sam Liccardo.
Industry Groups Rally Behind the Bill
The Blockchain Association, Crypto Council for Innovation, Financial Technology Association, and the Digital Chamber all endorsed the PACE Act.
Blockchain Association CEO Summer Mersinger called it an “important step forward,” noting that digital asset payment companies have long been “locked out” of financial infrastructure available to competitors.
The bill now heads to committee, where traditional banking lobbies may push back against provisions that reduce their role as intermediaries in payments.
The post Bipartisan PACE Act Targets Cheaper Payments for Fintechs and Crypto Firms appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Key Highlights
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Platform transitions from prediction markets to continuous crypto derivatives trading
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Regulated perpetual futures set for April 27 rollout with USD collateral
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Monthly trading volumes surpassed $1 billion mark in March 2025
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Stablecoin collateral integration planned for Q2 following initial launch
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Strategic positioning against established players like Coinbase and Binance
Kalshi is set to enter the cryptocurrency derivatives arena with a regulated perpetual futures offering scheduled for April 27. This strategic expansion represents a significant departure from the platform’s traditional event-driven contract model, introducing continuous trading instruments linked to digital asset valuations. The initiative enables Kalshi to directly challenge incumbent crypto exchanges while capitalizing on its compliant operational framework.
Platform Diversification Through Derivative Instruments
The upcoming launch introduces perpetual futures contracts that provide price exposure to cryptocurrencies without predetermined settlement dates. Unlike conventional event-based markets that conclude upon specific outcomes, these instruments facilitate ongoing position management. Consequently, this product evolution significantly enhances Kalshi’s trading infrastructure and market relevance.
These derivative contracts utilize funding rate mechanisms to synchronize contract valuations with underlying spot market prices continuously. This technical framework enables Kalshi to deliver stable pricing dynamics alongside adaptable trading parameters. Additionally, the perpetual structure accommodates extended investment horizons beyond what binary outcome markets traditionally provide.
Initial trading will utilize U.S. dollar denominated collateral requirements. Subsequently, Kalshi has outlined intentions to integrate stablecoin collateral options during the second quarter. This phased implementation strategy permits methodical expansion while adhering to regulatory compliance standards.
Expanding Digital Asset Trading Momentum
Cryptocurrency-related trading activity on Kalshi has demonstrated substantial acceleration throughout recent periods. March 2025 marked a milestone achievement with monthly transaction volumes crossing the one billion dollar threshold initially. This performance trajectory validates considerable market appetite and reinforces the strategic rationale for derivatives expansion.
Perpetual futures contracts currently constitute the dominant segment of worldwide cryptocurrency trading volume, particularly across offshore exchange venues. Nevertheless, regulated access within United States markets remains constrained, presenting a strategic opening for Kalshi. The platform can effectively capture traders prioritizing compliant pathways to crypto derivative exposure.
Beyond digital currencies, the company envisions extending its perpetual futures framework into commodities and additional asset categories. This comprehensive development timeline reflects broader strategic ambitions consistent with multi-asset platform evolution. Through this approach, Kalshi reinforces its competitive positioning for sustained market participation.
Competitive Landscape And Sector Dynamics
This strategic expansion positions Kalshi in direct rivalry with major platforms including Coinbase Global and Binance. These established exchanges currently provide cryptocurrency trading services, encompassing derivative products across various regulatory jurisdictions. Kalshi’s distinguishing characteristic stems from its comprehensive U.S. regulatory oversight structure.
The prediction markets sector has witnessed explosive expansion, with transactional activity achieving unprecedented benchmarks throughout 2026. This industry momentum reinforces Kalshi’s integrated approach merging prediction market infrastructure with perpetual futures execution. This hybrid architecture enables more effective liquidity aggregation and capital efficiency.
The platform has secured substantial capital backing, achieving multi-billion dollar valuation metrics. Industry intelligence indicates potential plans for a public market debut within an approximate two-year timeframe. These developments underscore Kalshi’s ongoing operational scaling efforts concurrent with strategic entry into additional financial product categories.
Iran war news escalated Tuesday as parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stated publicly that Tehran will not accept negotiations under conditions it considers coercive, with the 10-day US-Iran ceasefire set to expire Wednesday and both sides sharpening rhetoric ahead of prospective talks in Islamabad.
Summary
- Ghalibaf warned that Iran has spent the past two weeks preparing “new cards on the battlefield” and accused Trump of violating the ceasefire by maintaining the naval blockade and seeking Iran’s surrender.
- Iran’s foreign ministry said it has no plans for a second round of negotiations, while IRIB cited Iranian sources confirming no decision has been made to participate in Islamabad talks.
- Trump told CNBC he is “ready to go” back to war if no deal is reached and said he would not extend the ceasefire, while also saying he expects a “great deal” and that Iran has “no choice.”
Iran war news turned sharply negative Tuesday as Iranian officials delivered a unified message hours before the US negotiating team led by Vice President JD Vance was expected to arrive in Islamabad. Tehran’s position, as expressed through multiple official channels, is that it will not enter talks while the US naval blockade of its ports continues and while American officials publicly threaten expanded military strikes.
“We do not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats, and in the past two weeks, we have prepared to reveal new cards on the battlefield,” Ghalibaf wrote on X. He accused Trump of using the ceasefire period to seek Iran’s surrender rather than a genuine agreement, calling the US posture “warmongering.”
Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei confirmed at a weekly press briefing that “as of now, we have no plans for the next round of negotiation, and no decision has been made in this regard.”
Why Tehran Is Holding Its Position
The core Iranian complaint is structural. The US imposed a naval blockade of Iranian ports on the same day the ceasefire was announced, treating it as a tool of coercion rather than a genuine pause in hostilities. Iran has maintained since Sunday that continuing participation in any talks depends on the US changing its behavior, specifically lifting the blockade and stopping what Tehran describes as ceasefire violations.
Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian separately criticized US officials for sending “unconstructive and contradictory signals,” noting that Trump publicly claimed Iran had agreed to give up its enriched uranium stockpile while Iran denied this within hours of the claim. The gap between what each side says the other agreed to is itself a structural obstacle to building the trust necessary for second-round talks.
The Hormuz Situation and What Happens at Midnight
The ceasefire expires Wednesday. The Strait of Hormuz, which Iran briefly reopened before closing again after the Touska cargo ship seizure, remains effectively closed to normal traffic. Iran sent drones toward US military ships after the Touska was boarded by US forces, signaling that its military posture remains active. The USS Gerald R. Ford carrier operates in the Mediterranean while the USS Abraham Lincoln is in the north Arabian Sea, with a third carrier group expected in the region by month’s end.
Trump told CNBC he is “ready to go” if talks fail and said he would not be rushed. He also said Iran has “no choice” but to negotiate. The contradiction between those statements and Iran’s stated refusal to talk under threat defines the standoff heading into the Wednesday deadline.
What This Means for Oil and Crypto Markets
The ceasefire hopes that lifted Bitcoin to $72,700 and pushed oil down 13% on April 8 are now at direct risk. A resumption of hostilities at midnight Wednesday would push Brent crude above $100 again and remove the macro tailwind that has supported crypto markets over the past two weeks. The oil price channel into inflation expectations, Fed rate policy, and risk asset positioning means that the outcome of Wednesday’s deadline is the single largest near-term variable for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
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