Britain’s public finances delivered a rare slice of good news for the chancellor this week, with government borrowing sinking to a four-year low in March. But business leaders and economists are already bracing for the figures to sour, warning that the escalating conflict in the Middle East could swiftly unravel Rachel Reeves’s carefully constructed fiscal plans.

According to figures released on Thursday by the Office for National Statistics, the government borrowed £12.6bn last month, the lowest March total since 2022 and £1.4bn below the same month a year earlier. The drop was driven by a sharp fall in debt interest spending and a bumper £100bn haul in tax receipts.

For small and medium-sized businesses, which continue to shoulder the weight of frozen income tax thresholds, higher employer national insurance and stubborn inflation, the figures offer only cold comfort. While the Treasury has edged closer to meeting its borrowing targets, the improvement owes less to restraint on Whitehall and more to a quirk of the retail price index.

Despite the monthly improvement, March’s figure came in above the £10.4bn consensus forecast from City economists. Borrowing over the full financial year reached £132bn — £700m below the Office for Budget Responsibility’s projection, but still the sixth-highest annual total since records began in 1947. The figure was nonetheless nearly £20bn lower than the previous year.

The headline reduction was flattered by a dramatic fall in debt interest costs, which dropped to £3.2bn in March from £13bn in February and £4.5bn in the same month last year. A substantial portion of the UK’s debt stock remains linked to the retail price index, a measure economists have long dismissed as outdated. A sharp deceleration in RPI between December and January fed directly through to lower payments to index-linked gilt holders.

Tax revenues also did much of the heavy lifting. Public sector receipts rose £5.4bn year on year to cross the £100bn threshold in March, propelled by higher income tax and national insurance takings. Public spending climbed more modestly, up £2.9bn to £91.6bn.

Tom Davies, senior statistician at the ONS, said the figures showed that “although spending has risen this financial year, this was more than offset by increased receipts,” noting that March’s borrowing was 10 per cent lower than a year earlier.

Yet the optimism was tempered by warnings that the tailwinds of the past month could quickly reverse. Economists fear that the war in the Middle East is already feeding through to British inflation and growth forecasts, threatening to squeeze the chancellor’s room for manoeuvre.

“A sustained rise in energy prices would create a double squeeze on the public finances,” said Martin Beck, chief economist at WPI Strategy. “True, higher oil and gas prices could boost North Sea revenues, while stronger inflation might lift VAT receipts and income tax revenues through frozen thresholds. However, those gains would likely be outweighed by weaker economic growth and higher spending pressures, including increased welfare costs, rising debt interest payments, and potential support for households and energy-intensive firms.”

Figures published earlier this week showed consumer price inflation climbing to 3.3 per cent in March, up from 3 per cent in February. Some economists now expect it to peak at double the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target later this year, a development that would push the government’s debt interest bill higher once more and heap fresh pressure on already stretched SMEs.

The Bank’s nine-member monetary policy committee meets next Thursday and is widely expected to hold the base rate at 3.75 per cent. A minority of analysts, however, now believe Threadneedle Street could be forced to raise rates later in the year to counter the inflationary fallout from the Middle East. Updated forecasts for inflation, growth and unemployment will accompany the decision.

Debt as a share of gross domestic product stood at 93.8 per cent, up 0.6 percentage points year on year and back at levels not seen since the 1960s.

The picture could worsen quickly. The Resolution Foundation warned in a report this month that a further escalation in the Middle East war could erase £16bn of the £23.6bn fiscal headroom Reeves carved out in her March spring statement. Under her own fiscal rules, the chancellor must balance day-to-day spending with tax receipts within five years.

Ellie Henderson, economist at Investec, said: “The spike in energy prices has likely dampened the outlook, with higher inflation increasing the cost of servicing index-linked gilts, and the slower growth forecasts constraining growth in potential tax receipts.”

The Treasury, for its part, is keen to claim credit. James Murray, chief secretary to the Treasury, said: “Our deficit is down [by] £19.8bn because of our plan to cut borrowing. In a volatile world the decisions we are taking are the right ones to keep costs down, take back our energy security and cut borrowing and debt.”

For British businesses, and especially the SMEs that make up the bulk of the country’s employers, the figures underline an uncomfortable truth: however benign March’s numbers appear, the margin for error has rarely been thinner.

Amy Ingham

Amy is a newly qualified journalist specialising in business journalism at Business Matters with responsibility for news content for what is now the UK’s largest print and online source of current business news.

Advertisement