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Brazil Bans 27 Prediction Markets, Including Kalshi and Polymarket

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Crypto Breaking News

Brazilian authorities have moved to shut down 27 prediction market platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket. The action, announced Friday, follows a directive from the Finance Ministry and enforcement by Anatel, Brazil’s telecom regulator, which contends that these services operate outside the country’s current legal framework.

Finance Ministry executive secretary Dario Durigan described the moment as a turning point for the sector, telling reporters at the Palácio do Planalto that Brazil previously experienced “a period of anarchy because there were no rules, no oversight, from 2018 to 2022.”

The crackdown aligns with a new rule framework issued by the National Monetary Council (CMN). Resolution 5.298, issued on Friday, takes effect in early May and narrows the scope of permissible prediction-market contracts. Under the CMN’s plan, contracts tied to sports, politics, entertainment, or social events are banned, as authorities deem them closer to gambling than to financial investments. Only contracts linked to economic indicators—such as inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, or commodity prices—will remain allowed and fall under financial-market oversight.

The block list spans both international operators and Brazil-focused platforms. Among the best-known affected names are Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, and Robinhood’s forecasting feature, along with Fanatics Markets. The crackdown also targets ProphetX, Hedgehog Markets, Novig, Polyswipe, PRED Exchange and Stride, as well as several Brazil-centric services such as Palpita, Cravei, Previsao and MercadoPred.

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Related: Kalshi bans 3 US politicians for betting on their own election races

Brazil flags prediction platforms as debt risk

Durigan argued that prediction markets could deepen household debt and expose users to financial harm. “At a time when we are working to reduce debt levels among families, small businesses, and students, we must also prevent new forms of harmful indebtedness,” he said.

The government’s stance frames these markets as potential vectors of financial risk at a moment when Brazil seeks to curb indebtedness across households and enterprises. The Ministry and Anatel emphasized that only markets tied to tangible economic indicators will remain within the legitimate financial-market framework.

Global trend and what to watch next

The Brazilian move fits a broader, ongoing pattern as several jurisdictions move to restrict or ban prediction markets, often by folding them into gambling or broader financial-regulatory regimes. In Europe, countries such as France, Belgium and the Netherlands have restricted or penalized operators operating without authorization. The United States presents a more fragmented picture, with ongoing friction between federal authorities and individual states over how to regulate or limit prediction-market activity.

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Earlier coverage noted that Kalshi has also taken steps to limit betting on political events in other markets, underscoring the regulatory sensitivity surrounding this sector.

As the CMN rule takes effect and enforcement continues in Brazil, investors and users should watch whether other markets in the region follow suit and how platforms adapt—whether by narrowing offerings, seeking licenses, or exiting certain jurisdictions altogether.

The shift signals a clarifying moment for the intersection of prediction markets and financial regulation. While the technology and its potential for price discovery persist, the path to legitimate, supervised use remains tightly tethered to national frameworks and consumer-protection considerations. Watch how Brazil’s enforcement actions influence platform strategies, local participation, and the broader adoption of regulated forecasting markets in Latin America.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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How Anyone with a Crypto Wallet Can Now Earn Like Wall Street Top Market Makers

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR:

  • Uniswap liquidity pools mirror Wall Street market making, letting anyone earn fees on every trade executed.
  • Popular DeFi pairs have generated annualized yields between 15% and 100%, driven purely by trading volume and fees.
  • Impermanent loss remains the primary risk, but high-volume pair selection and concentrated liquidity help manage exposure.
  • Real-time pool analytics from DeFiLlama and Revert Finance give retail investors the same data institutional allocators access.

Liquidity pools on decentralized exchanges have opened market-making to everyday investors. For decades, firms like Citadel Securities and Jane Street dominated this space, earning billions by sitting between buyers and sellers.

Now, through platforms like Uniswap, anyone with a crypto wallet can provide liquidity and collect trading fees. The barrier to entry has collapsed, and the mechanics remain the same.

How Market Making Works in DeFi

Market making has long been the quiet engine behind Wall Street’s most profitable firms. Citadel Securities processed roughly 28% of all U.S. equities volume in 2024.

Jane Street generated over $20 billion in revenue in 2023, surpassing Goldman Sachs’s entire trading division. These firms earn by quoting buy and sell prices simultaneously and collecting the spread on every trade.

Uniswap brought this model on-chain in 2018. Instead of proprietary algorithms, it uses liquidity pools funded by ordinary users.

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Traders swap tokens directly against these pools. The liquidity providers behind those pools earn a percentage fee on every transaction completed.

Fee tiers on Uniswap typically range from 0.05% to 1%, depending on pair volatility. Fees distribute proportionally to everyone who contributed to the pool. A provider holding 10% of a pool earns 10% of all fees that pool generates.

The protocol operates around the clock, every day of the year. No license, institutional affiliation, or minimum deposit is required. Tools like DeFiLlama and Revert Finance provide real-time pool data to any user, free of charge.

Yields, Risks, and What Providers Should Know

During high-volume periods, popular Uniswap pairs have generated annualized yields exceeding 100% for liquidity providers.

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Even in quieter conditions, well-chosen pairs routinely produce 15–40% annually. These returns come from fee income, not speculation or token price appreciation.

The primary risk unique to this strategy is impermanent loss. When one token’s price shifts significantly against the other, the pool rebalances automatically. This can leave providers holding a ratio worth less than simply holding both tokens separately.

Providers can manage this risk by choosing pairs where they are comfortable holding both assets long-term. Uniswap v3’s concentrated liquidity feature also helps, allowing users to target specific price ranges and improve fee efficiency. High-volume pairs relative to pool size further offset impermanent loss exposure.

Smart contract risk also exists, though Uniswap’s contracts rank among the most tested in crypto history. Smaller altcoin pairs carry additional token-specific risks that providers should assess carefully before committing capital.

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The formula for earnings is straightforward: volume multiplied by fee rate, multiplied by pool share, equals income.

A 10% share of a pool generating $10 million in daily volume at 0.3% produces roughly $3,000 per day. The protocol applies the same math regardless of deposit size.

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Kooc Media PR Solutions for DeFi, NFT and Web3 Projects

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Kooc Media PR Solutions for DeFi, NFT and Web3 Projects

Kooc Media, a specialist PR distribution agency for the crypto, fintech, technology and iGaming industries, has announced a dedicated suite of PR solutions for DeFi protocols, NFT platforms and Web3 projects. The service provides guaranteed media placements across established blockchain, finance and technology publications, giving decentralised finance, digital collectible and Web3 infrastructure projects the visibility they need to attract users, investors and developer communities.

The DeFi, NFT and Web3 sectors have grown into major segments of the broader crypto industry, but each faces distinct challenges when it comes to media coverage and public awareness. DeFi protocols compete in an increasingly crowded market of lending platforms, decentralised exchanges and yield aggregators. NFT platforms fight for attention in a space that has moved well beyond profile pictures into gaming, music, real estate and identity. Web3 projects building the infrastructure layer of the decentralised internet often struggle to communicate their value to anyone outside a narrow developer audience.

What these sectors share is a desperate need for media coverage that reaches beyond their existing communities. And what they have in common is that traditional PR has consistently failed to deliver it.

“DeFi, NFT and Web3 projects are building some of the most important technology in the crypto space,” said Michelle De Gouveia, spokesperson for Kooc Media. “But the gap between what these projects are building and how many people know about them is enormous. Closing that gap is what our PR service does.”


Three Sectors, One Visibility Problem

Despite their technical differences, DeFi protocols, NFT platforms and Web3 projects all face the same fundamental marketing challenge. The standard channels that technology companies use to reach new audiences are largely closed to them.

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Google restricts advertising for many categories of crypto products. Meta applies similar limitations. App store policies create barriers for decentralised applications. Traditional tech media covers crypto sporadically and often sceptically. Mainstream business media covers it only when prices spike or crash.

Meanwhile, the audiences these projects need to reach — crypto-native users, institutional investors, developers and mainstream adopters — each consume media through different channels and respond to different messages. A DeFi protocol trying to attract liquidity providers needs to be visible on different publications than an NFT marketplace trying to attract digital artists, even though both operate within the broader crypto ecosystem.

This fragmented media landscape makes specialist PR essential. A generic approach that treats all crypto projects the same will miss the specific audiences that DeFi, NFT and Web3 projects need to reach. Kooc Media’s crypto PR services are structured to address the specific visibility challenges that each of these sectors faces.


Guaranteed Placements on Publications That Matter

Kooc Media’s PR model is built on a simple principle: clients should pay for results, not for effort. The agency owns and operates several established online news brands including Blockonomi, CoinCentral, MoneyCheck, Parameter, Beanstalk and Computing. These in-house publications have been publishing daily content for years, with strong domain authority, organic search traffic and engaged readerships across the crypto, finance and technology sectors.

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When a DeFi protocol, NFT platform or Web3 project books a campaign, the specific publications that will carry the article are confirmed before the campaign begins. There is no pitching to external journalists. No waiting for editorial approval. No risk of paying a retainer and receiving nothing in return. The article is written, reviewed and published — typically the same day.

This guaranteed model solves the most persistent frustration in crypto PR. Traditional agencies charge monthly retainers and promise to pitch stories to journalists on the client’s behalf. Whether any coverage actually materialises depends on factors outside anyone’s control. Projects can spend months paying an agency and end up with nothing published. With Kooc Media, the published article is the deliverable.

For projects that need reach beyond crypto-native audiences, Kooc Media distributes press releases through major financial and business newswire networks. Depending on the package, articles can appear on mainstream outlets such as Business Insider, Bloomberg, Benzinga, MarketWatch, USA Today and Dow Jones feeds. A DeFi protocol seeking institutional liquidity, an NFT platform courting mainstream brands or a Web3 project pitching enterprise clients can all benefit from coverage that appears alongside traditional financial and business news.

Every campaign includes transparent reporting with live links to each published article.

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Tailored Approaches for DeFi, NFT and Web3

While the underlying PR infrastructure is the same across all campaigns, Kooc Media tailors its approach based on the specific sector and goals of each client.

DeFi PR campaigns focus on the metrics and mechanisms that matter to the decentralised finance audience. Coverage for a lending protocol highlights interest rates, collateral options, security audit results and total value locked. Coverage for a decentralised exchange emphasises trading volume, liquidity depth, supported chains and fee structures. Coverage for a yield aggregator explains the strategies, risks and historical performance. The content speaks directly to the DeFi user who evaluates platforms based on data rather than branding.

NFT PR campaigns address a fundamentally different audience. NFT buyers, collectors, artists and gamers respond to different messages than DeFi liquidity providers. Coverage for an NFT marketplace might focus on creator tools, royalty structures, community features and notable collections. Coverage for an NFT gaming platform might highlight gameplay mechanics, earning potential, asset interoperability and partnerships with established gaming studios. The content meets the NFT audience where their interests actually lie.

Web3 PR campaigns tackle the unique challenge of explaining infrastructure-level technology to audiences that may not immediately understand why it matters. Coverage for a decentralised storage network needs to explain the practical benefits in terms that make sense to potential users and enterprise clients, not just developers. Coverage for an identity protocol needs to connect abstract concepts like self-sovereign identity to real-world use cases that readers can relate to. Kooc Media’s editorial team has experience translating complex Web3 concepts into accessible content without sacrificing technical accuracy.

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“A DeFi lending protocol and an NFT art marketplace have almost nothing in common except that they both use blockchain,” said De Gouveia. “Treating them the same in a PR campaign would be a waste of money. We build each campaign around the specific project, its specific audience and the specific publications where that audience spends time.”


Content That Technical Audiences Respect

The audiences for DeFi, NFT and Web3 content are among the most technically literate in any industry. DeFi users understand smart contract architecture, liquidity pool mechanics and yield calculation models. NFT enthusiasts understand token standards, metadata storage and on-chain versus off-chain dynamics. Web3 developers evaluate projects based on documentation quality, consensus mechanisms, throughput specifications and composability.

Writing for these audiences requires genuine technical understanding. A press release about a DeFi protocol that misuses basic terminology will be dismissed immediately. An article about an NFT platform that confuses ERC-721 with ERC-1155 will damage rather than build credibility. Content about a Web3 infrastructure project that cannot explain its consensus mechanism accurately will be taken apart by the developer community within hours of publication.

Kooc Media’s managed PR creation service handles all content production in-house. The editorial team includes writers who cover DeFi protocols, NFT platforms and Web3 infrastructure as their primary beat. They understand the technology at a level that allows them to write with precision and credibility. They know the difference between an optimistic rollup and a zk-rollup. They understand how automated market makers calculate pricing. They can explain decentralised identity without resorting to empty buzzwords.

Projects provide their technical documentation, key announcements and target messaging. Kooc Media returns finished articles that the project’s own developers would be comfortable sharing. For teams that are focused on building and do not have dedicated marketing staff, this service eliminates the content bottleneck that prevents most DeFi, NFT and Web3 projects from maintaining any consistent media presence.

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Search Visibility Across a Fragmented Market

DeFi, NFT and Web3 projects compete for search traffic across thousands of relevant keywords. DeFi protocols target terms like decentralised lending, yield farming, DEX trading and liquidity mining. NFT platforms target terms like NFT marketplace, digital collectibles, NFT gaming and create NFTs. Web3 projects target terms like decentralised storage, blockchain identity, Web3 infrastructure and decentralised applications.

Each article placed on one of Kooc Media’s high-authority publications creates an indexed page that can rank for these terms and their many long-tail variations. A single article provides modest search value. A sustained campaign that places articles across multiple trusted domains month after month builds a search presence that compounds over time.

After several months of consistent coverage, a DeFi protocol has articles ranking across Blockonomi, CoinCentral, MoneyCheck and potentially mainstream outlets like Benzinga and Business Insider. An NFT platform has coverage spanning crypto-native and mainstream publications that appears whenever collectors search for new marketplaces. A Web3 project has technical coverage that reaches developers through search engines rather than relying solely on developer relations and conference appearances.

This compounding search visibility is one of the most valuable long-term outcomes of consistent PR. The coverage published today continues driving discovery for years. Each new article reinforces the project’s authority for its target keywords. Over time, the cumulative effect creates an organic traffic channel that operates independently of any paid marketing spend.

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About Kooc Media

Kooc Media was founded in 2017 as a specialist PR distribution agency for the crypto, fintech, technology and iGaming industries. The company operates its own network of in-house news websites and a large partner distribution network, delivering guaranteed media coverage across high-authority publications. Services include press release writing, sponsored articles, newswire distribution, homepage placements and full campaign reporting. Kooc Media serves clients across the crypto, fintech and gambling sectors.

Kooc Media’s Crypto PR packages are available now through the company’s website at https://kooc.co.uk.

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Mike Tyson, Tether CEO, Cathie Wood are among speakers at Trump’s ‘most exclusive’ crypto conference

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Trump's memecoin speaker list (CoinDesk)

A group of cryptocurrency executives, investors and public figures is set to speak Saturday at a private event hosted by U.S. President Donald Trump at his Mar-a-Lago club in Palm Beach, Florida.

The event, billed as “the most exclusive conference in the world,” started with Bill Zanker, co-founder of TRUMP memecoin and was followed by legendary boxer Mike Tyson, according to the speaker lineup seen by CoinDesk.

Other high-profile speakers include stablecoin issuer Tether’s CEO Paolo Ardoino, who is expected to address the link between financial inclusion and the U.S. dollar’s global role. Ark Invest founder Cathie Wood and crypto infrastructure provider Alchemy’s CEO Nikil Viswanathan will also speak at the conference, and each will focus on the overlap between artificial intelligence and crypto, a topic that has drawn increasing attention as both sectors expand.

Trump's memecoin speaker list (CoinDesk)

Anchorage Digital CEO Nathan McCauley is scheduled to join a panel on the state of crypto and equities markets, while investor Anthony Pompliano of ProCap Financial is also set to appear on stage.

Trump's memecoin speaker list (CoinDesk)

The lineup also includes traditional finance investors such as Tim Draper and Grant Cardone, as well as author Tony Robbins.

The event is touted as a major cryptocurrency and finance gathering tied to Trump’s broader push to support the digital asset industry since returning to the White House in January 2025. The conference website lists Trump as the keynote speaker and says attendance is limited to the top 297 holders of the $TRUMP token, a meme coin launched in his name.

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This will mark the second time such an event has been hosted by the President. That previous dinner prompted Democratic lawmakers to lodge protests and raise concerns about Trump profiting off of his own crypto token while simultaneously championing legislation to support the industry and appointing regulators to oversee crypto.

Since taking over the Oval Office, Trump has backed several crypto-related projects, including the $TRUMP and $MELANIA meme coins, which are tied closely to the public profiles of the president and first lady rather than any underlying utility. Transaction fees generated from trading the coins have produced millions of dollars in revenue for entities linked to Trump and his family.

Nevertheless, since launching around Trump’s second inauguration, the $TRUMP token has fallen about 97% from its peak. The $MELANIA coin has dropped even further, down roughly 99% after a rapid rise and decline.

Read more: It could cost you up to $6 million to grab lunch with Donald Trump

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CFTC Sues NY Over Push to Apply Gambling Laws to Prediction Markets

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Crypto Breaking News

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has filed a lawsuit in the Southern District of New York to block New York state authorities from applying its gambling statutes to federally regulated prediction market platforms. The action highlights a widening clash over regulatory jurisdiction between federal financial regulators and state gambling authorities, with high-stakes implications for platforms, banks, and investors that rely on event-contract products.

According to the complaint, the CFTC contends that federal law grants it exclusive authority over prediction markets, and it seeks a declaratory judgment and a permanent injunction to restrain New York’s enforcement actions. CFTC Chair Michael Selig framed the filing as part of a broader effort to defend the agency’s jurisdiction over federally registered exchanges amid an “onslaught” of state lawsuits aimed at limiting access to event contracts and undermining the CFTC’s oversight. In parallel, New York has already pursued enforcement actions against major crypto-asset venues, including Coinbase and Gemini, alleging their offerings violated state gambling rules, and had previously moved against Kalshi by ordering changes to portions of its sports-related contracts.

In another development, a broad coalition of states has weighed in on the Kalshi matter at the appellate level. On Friday, 37 states and Washington, D.C., filed an amicus brief supporting Massachusetts in its case against Kalshi, urging the state’s highest court to reject Kalshi’s argument that federal law permits a nationwide sports-betting product without adhering to state regulatory regimes. Kalshi argues its betting products qualify as “swaps” regulated by a federal financial statute enacted in 2010, while the states contend that the federal framework was not intended to centralize or override state gambling authority. The amicus brief underscores a major fault line in U.S. policy: whether federal financial regulation can or should preempt traditional state consumer protections in gambling and related markets.

Related coverage note: Kalshi, Polymarket among 27 prediction platforms banned in Brazil. This context illustrates how global regulators are intensifying scrutiny of prediction-market activity across jurisdictions.

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Key takeaways

  • The CFTC asserts exclusive federal authority over prediction markets and seeks judicially binding clarification to prevent state enforcement actions from applying gambling laws to these platforms.
  • New York state actions have expanded beyond Kalshi to target major platforms such as Coinbase and Gemini, signaling a broader strategy to curb unlicensed offerings by crypto venues under state gambling rules.
  • A coordinated multi-state effort, with 37 states and Washington, D.C., argues against a federal preemption that would broadly legalize nationwide sports betting without state oversight, highlighting a persistent policy fracture between federal and state regulators.
  • State regulators are increasingly aggressive, issuing cease-and-desist notices and pursuing litigation to enforce traditional gambling licensing, age restrictions, fraud prevention, and consumer-protection measures on prediction-market products.
  • The legal and regulatory dynamics raise practical concerns for platform operators, financial institutions, and investors, including licensing obligations, cross-border compliance, and the risk of conflicting standards between federal and state authorities.

Federal authority and the preemption question

The central issue in the CFTC’s litigation is whether federal law provides exclusive jurisdiction over prediction-market activity, thereby limiting or preempting state gambling laws. The complaint argues that prediction markets—where participants trade on the outcomes of real-world events—fall squarely within the CFTC’s remit as futures and derivatives markets. As such, the agency seeks a declaratory judgment that New York’s approach conflicts with federal authority and a permanent injunction to halt enforcement actions that could chill access to federally regulated platforms.

By contrast, Kalshi and its backers invoke a 2010 financial statute, contending that its betting products are swaps regulated by federal authorities and, therefore, should be shielded from state gambling regulation. The states dispute that interpretation, arguing that the statute was not intended to authorize nationwide sports betting or to nullify well-established state licensing and consumer-protection regimes. This disagreement underscores a foundational question about the reach of federal financial regulation versus state sovereignty in areas historically governed at the state level, such as gaming and gambling.

The argument has practical resonance for exchanges that operate across state lines and for banks and payment providers that support their activities. If federal law is deemed to preempt state gambling rules, compliant pathways for offering prediction-market products could shift toward a uniform federal standard. If not, operators may face a mosaic of state requirements, complicating product design, KYC/AML controls, licensing, and ongoing compliance programs. The outcome could also influence how other crypto-native products with structured payoff features are regulated in the United States.

State enforcement intensifies crackdown on prediction markets

The dispute in New York fits within a broader pattern of state actions targeting prediction markets. States across the country have increasingly viewed these products through a gambling-regulation lens, issuing cease-and-desist orders, bringing enforcement actions, and seeking to compel operators to integrate traditional licensing, responsible-gaming controls, and age-verification measures. Jurisdictions such as Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois have been active in pursuing enforcement against prediction platforms, while Nevada recently extended a prohibition on Kalshi’s event-based contracts, siding with regulators who contend the activities constitute unlicensed gambling.

These state actions reflect concerns that predictive markets—despite their claimed hedging or informational utility—can pose consumer-protection risks, enable fraud, or facilitate unlicensed gambling without robust age checks, advertising restrictions, advertising disclosures, or capital requirements. The convergence of gaming and financial-regulatory concerns has intensified scrutiny of platforms that straddle finance, technology, and entertainment, raising the bar for compliance programs across the board. In this context, the emerging regulatory framework is less about product innovation and more about gatekeeping—who may offer such products, under what standards, and with what oversight by regulators at the federal and state levels.

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In parallel, Brazil’s regulatory action against a broader set of prediction platforms serves as a cautionary signal for participants planning cross-border operations. The Brazilian context, though jurisdictionally distinct, illustrates the global patchwork of policy responses to prediction markets and the potential spillovers into U.S. activity, particularly for platforms seeking multi-jurisdictional licenses and market access.

Regulatory and market implications for incumbents and policy direction

For market participants, the core implication is heightened regulatory risk and an expanded compliance footprint. Exchanges and brokers that list prediction-market products must navigate a spectrum of requirements, including licensing regimes, consumer-protection standards, age-verification protocols, and strict anti-fraud controls. The interplay between federal and state authorities could yield a future in which a single platform operates under a federally preemptive regime in some contexts while remaining subject to state rules in others, depending on product design, client base, and where services are marketed and accessed.

The stakes extend to financial institutions and payment rails that service prediction-market platforms. Banks and custody providers must assess legal risk, programmatic controls, and Know-Your-Customer (KYC) and anti-money-laundering (AML) obligations under evolving regulatory guidance. Depending on the trajectory of the cases, there could be a renewed emphasis on licensing clarity, standardized disclosure practices, and formalized oversight structures that reduce ambiguity for counterparties and investors.

Policy context matters as well. The ongoing dispute sits at the intersection of federal financial regulation and state gaming oversight, a dynamic that has prompted calls for greater harmonization or, at minimum, clearer delineation of jurisdiction. In international terms, the U.S. framework could influence discussions around analogous regimes in other jurisdictions, including the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework, which contemplates different mechanisms for regulating crypto markets at the supranational level. For operators with cross-border ambitions, aligning with a coherent, predictable regulatory posture becomes essential for risk management and capital planning.

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As the litigation unfolds, analysts and compliance teams will be watching for developments on several fronts: whether the federal court grants a broad interpretation of exclusive CFTC jurisdiction; whether state courts or legislatures seek to preserve traditional gambling controls or push for regulatory convergence with federal standards; and how these legal questions translate into licensing timelines, product design changes, and enforcement priorities across jurisdictions.

Closing perspective

The unfolding disagreement between federal authority and state gambling regulation over prediction markets underscores a fundamental shift in how authorities may oversee emerging financial-technology products. For institutions, the path forward will require meticulous mapping of regulatory requirements, robust cross-jurisdictional compliance programs, and careful attention to evolving case law as courts define the boundaries of federal preemption and state sovereignty.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Bitcoin’s $40k bear case would be a historic outlier, data suggests

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Mean reversion Index (CheckonChain)

Bitcoin’s recent gains — it’s added almost 15% this month — aren’t enough to convince some industry observers that the largest cryptocurrency has escaped the bear market it entered in October. It is, after all, still 40% below its record.

There may be deeper drops to come, with some, unidentified, forecasters, predicting a drop to as low as $40,000, a 70% drop from its all-time high. The figure comes from bitcoin analyst James Check, who says such a move is unlikely. While not impossible, he said in a post on X, it would be statistically extraordinary.

“Just to make a point, for the bears who want to see $40k.

You may well end up right. However, consider that on a mean reversion basis, averaging relative to nine anchors (a mix of technical, onchain, trend, fast, slow etc), it is a Q 0.4 event.

Lower than $2 Bitcoin in 2011.”

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After climbing over $126,000 in October, bitcoin slid more than 50% to around $60,000 in February before stabilizing. It was trading Friday near $78,000.

Talking to the bears, Check said their predictions warrant closer scrutiny.

Check points to the Bitcoin Mean Reversion Index, a composite model that averages multiple key valuation metrics, including the 200-week moving average, realized price, power law trend and a number of volume-weighted average price measures. The index ranks bitcoin’s price on a historical percentile basis.

When modeled at $40,000, bitcoin registers as a “0.4 event,” meaning it would fall in the 0.4th percentile of all daily closes.

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“That’s below any meaningful deviation across all major anchors,” Check said.

For context, Check says that would be equivalent to bitcoin trading below $2 in 2011 on a relative basis. By contrast, today’s price sits around the 31.5th percentile, historically weak but within normal correction ranges.

“There’s no zero probability in markets,” Check added, “but this would be a near-unprecedented outcome.”

Mean reversion Index (CheckonChain)

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Aave and Partners Push Arbitrum DAO to Release 30,765 ETH for rsETH Recovery Effort

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR:

  • Aave and partners submitted a governance proposal asking Arbitrum DAO to release 30,765.67 frozen ETH.
  • The April 18 rsETH exploit created a backing shortfall of approximately 76,127 rsETH across the protocol.
  • Released ETH would go to a 2-of-3 Gnosis Safe controlled by Aave Labs, KelpDAO, and Certora signers.
  • The full governance process spans roughly 49 days before any ETH release can be formally executed.

Aave service providers, alongside KelpDAO, LayerZero, EtherFi, and Compound, have submitted a governance proposal to the Arbitrum DAO.

The proposal requests the release of 30,765.67 ETH frozen by the Arbitrum Security Council. The funds, frozen following the April 18 rsETH exploit, would go toward a coordinated cross-protocol recovery effort.

The goal is to restore rsETH’s backing and reduce losses for affected users across DeFi.

Arbitrum Governance Asked to Unlock Frozen ETH

The Arbitrum Security Council froze the ETH on April 21, 2026, moving it to a designated address after identifying the exploiter’s holdings.

A subsequent governance vote is required before any release can happen. The proposal was submitted on April 25, 2026, and is now open for community review and feedback.

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Aave posted on X, stating that the proposal aims to direct the recovered funds into DeFi United, a coordinated recovery effort.

The post noted that releasing the ETH “would meaningfully advance the path to resolution as others confirm their commitments.” The Arbitrum community is invited to share feedback on the forum.

The LlamaRisk April 20 incident report confirmed the scale of the problem. The KelpDAO rsETH Unichain-to-Ethereum bridge released 116,500 rsETH on Ethereum without a corresponding burn on the source side.

At the time of the report, only 40,373 rsETH remained as confirmed backing for 152,577 rsETH in remote-chain claims, leaving a shortfall of approximately 76,127 rsETH.

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The 30,765.67 ETH currently frozen on Arbitrum represents a material portion of what is needed to close that gap. Returning those funds to the recovery effort would directly reduce the backing shortfall and improve conditions for rsETH holders across multiple protocols.

Coordinated Recovery Effort Targets Full Collateralization

If the proposal passes, the ETH will be sent to a 2-of-3 Gnosis Safe at a designated recovery address. Signers from Aave Labs, KelpDAO, and Certora will control the multisig. The funds are intended solely for remediating losses from the exploit.

Within Aave’s Ethereum Core and Arbitrum markets, the exploiter supplied 89,567 rsETH and borrowed 82,650 WETH plus 821 wstETH against those positions. Aave’s smart contracts were not compromised, as the incident originated outside the protocol entirely.

The proposal timeline spans approximately 49 days in total. This includes a one-week forum discussion period, a Snapshot temperature check, a 14-day onchain vote, and various waiting and finalization periods across both L2 and L1.

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No new treasury allocation is requested from Arbitrum DAO, as the ETH is already frozen and awaiting a governance decision on its destination.

A partial recovery would still reduce the shortfall proportionally, improving outcomes for affected users even if full collateralization is not immediately achieved.

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CFTC Sues New York Over bid to Apply Gambling Laws to Prediction Markets

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37 states back Massachusetts in amicus brief. Source: New York Gov

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has filed a lawsuit against New York to stop the state from applying its gambling laws to federally regulated prediction market platforms, escalating a growing clash over who has authority to oversee these products.

In a complaint lodged in the US District Court for the Southern District of New York, the CFTC argued that federal law gives it exclusive authority over these markets, asking the court for a declaratory judgment and a permanent injunction against New York’s enforcement actions.

“CFTC-registered exchanges have faced an onslaught of state lawsuits seeking to limit Americans’ access to event contracts and undermine the CFTC’s sole regulatory jurisdiction over prediction markets,” CFTC Chair Michael Selig said.

Earlier this week, New York filed suits against Coinbase and Gemini, claiming their offerings violated state gambling rules. The state had also previously targeted Kalshi, ordering it to halt parts of its sports-related contracts.

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Related: Kalshi, Polymarket among 27 prediction platforms banned in Brazil

States say federal law doesn’t legalize sports betting

On Friday, a coalition of 37 states and Washington, D.C. filed an amicus brief supporting Massachusetts in its case against Kalshi, urging Massachusetts’ highest court to reject Kalshi’s argument that federal law allows it to offer sports betting nationwide without following state rules.

Kalshi argues its betting products are “swaps” regulated by a federal agency under a 2010 financial law. The states say that law was never meant to legalize or control sports betting and does not clearly override state authority, which has historically governed gambling.

37 states back Massachusetts in amicus brief. Source: New York Gov
37 states back Massachusetts in amicus brief. Source: New York Gov

37 states back Massachusetts in amicus brief. Source: New York Gov

The states also argue that removing state oversight would weaken protections. State laws currently handle licensing, age limits, fraud prevention, and gambling addiction, which are areas not covered by federal financial regulation.

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Related: US appeals court upholds preventing New Jersey enforcement against Kalshi

States ramp up crackdown on prediction markets

State officials have taken a more aggressive stance against prediction markets in recent months, issuing cease-and-desist letters and pursuing legal action against firms offering prediction contracts.

States like Arizona, Connecticut and Illinois are seeking to enforce gambling laws against prediction platforms. Earlier this month, a Nevada judge extended a ban preventing Kalshi from offering event-based contracts in the state, siding with regulators who argue the products amount to unlicensed gambling.

Magazine: How to fix suspected insider trading on Polymarket and Kalshi

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Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently.

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Nine-day inflow streak for spot Bitcoin ETFs signals steady demand

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Crypto Breaking News

US spot Bitcoin ETFs continued to attract fresh capital, extending a nine-day inflow run through April 24 as investors piled into core crypto exposure through regulated vehicles. SoSoValue’s tracking shows about $2.12 billion of net inflows over the April 14–24 window, with the strongest single-day performance on April 17, when inflows reached $663.91 million. Other notable sessions included April 14’s $411.50 million and April 22’s $335.82 million.

The momentum wasn’t universal across all funds. Friday’s activity was comparatively modest, with net inflows of $14.45 million. Among the individual managers, BlackRock’s IBIT led the session with $22.88 million in inflows, while Fidelity’s FBTC recorded outflows of $1.69 million. Bitwise’s BITB and ARK 21Shares’ ARKB also posted outflows of $8.85 million and $9.02 million, respectively, with other products largely flat. The overall streak marks the first nine-day run for spot BTC ETFs since a similar burst in October, when inflows surged on consecutive days, including $1.21 billion on Oct. 6 and $875.6 million on Oct. 7.

Bitcoin’s market backdrop has helped sustain the flow. BTC was trading around $77,516.55, up roughly 10.7% over the past month, according to CoinMarketCap. The confluence of rising prices and regulated access appears to be reinforcing investor conviction that these products offer a stable exposure channel for crypto exposure within traditional portfolios.

Key takeaways

  • Spot BTC ETFs posted roughly $2.12 billion in net inflows over April 14–24, marking a nine-day streak driven by broad-based institutional demand.
  • Single-day highs included $663.91 million on April 17, with other strong days on April 14 ($411.50 million) and April 22 ($335.82 million).
  • Not all funds participated equally; some concentrates like BlackRock’s IBIT led the day, while Fidelity’s FBTC and others faced outflows or flat flows.
  • Overall, 2026 cumulative net inflows through spot BTC ETFs reached about $58.23 billion, signaling persistent demand despite a price backdrop below recent peaks.
  • Ether ETFs mirrored BTC momentum with a nine-day inflow streak, though the run paused on April 23 with a net outflow of $75.94 million.

Bitcoin ETF investors stay the course amid volatility

The sustained inflows into spot BTC ETFs—despite Bitcoin trading well below its October highs—underscore a shift toward longer-term positioning among institutional investors. In a social post, ETF analyst Nate Geraci characterized the pattern as evidence of “diamond hands” behavior, where buyers maintain exposure through drawdowns rather than reacting to near-term volatility. SoSoValue data corroborate a broader theme: ETF participants are treating these products as core allocations rather than tactical bets, reinforcing a structural layer of demand that can help stabilize flows during pullbacks.

The takeaway for traders and builders is that regulatory-compliant access channels continue to resonate with the market’s risk tolerance. The steady flow suggests participants view spot BTC ETFs as a credible, long-horizon mechanism to gain exposure to Bitcoin without directly holding the asset, which can matter for liquidity, price discovery, and risk budgeting in diversified portfolios.

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Ethereum exposure climbs in step, then eases

US spot Ether ETFs mirrored the BTC momentum, recording nine consecutive days of net inflows from April 14 through April 22. The strongest session occurred on April 17, when Ether ETFs attracted $127.49 million. Other notable days included April 22 with $96.44 million and April 20 with $67.77 million. The streak ended on April 23, when funds logged net outflows of $75.94 million, marking a reversal after a robust run.

The broader ETH narrative continues to draw attention to Ethereum’s ecosystem exposure alongside BTC. While the BTC rally anchors the narrative, Ether-based products offer market participants a way to diversify crypto risk and participate in the broader smart-contract platform theme with regulated vehicles. The data indicate a protective appetite for ETH exposure during the streak, followed by a pullback that may reflect shifting demand or tactical rebalancing across funds.

Where this leaves investors and markets next

Overall, the period pushed cumulative 2026 inflows into the BTC ETF space to a sizable sum—roughly $58.23 billion, according to SoSoValue—highlighting a durable appetite for regulated crypto access. The juxtaposition of rising inflows against a still-substantial price gap from the all-time highs may indicate that investors view these products as stabilizing anchors for long-term crypto exposure, rather than merely chasing immediate price moves.

As for Ether, the nine-day inflow streak followed by a pause raises questions about the durability of ETH-related demand in the near term. Market participants will be watching for fresh data in early May to see whether inflows resume and how price dynamics for ETH influence further fund flows, particularly as Ethereum-related fundamentals and network activity continue to evolve.

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Looking ahead, the key watchpoints will include how policymakers and regulators respond to evolving ETF structures, how primary-market flows interact with secondary-market liquidity, and whether next-month data reinforce the current pattern of steady, institutionally oriented capital entering spot crypto ETFs. For readers, the signal remains clear: regulated products are increasingly central to how major investors gain and manage crypto exposure, even as volatility persists.

Cointelegraph remains committed to transparent reporting and will continue tracking ETF inflows, price action, and regulatory developments to help readers gauge the evolving dynamics of crypto-market access.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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XRP Short Squeeze Builds as Whales Pull Millions From Binance Amid Negative Funding Rate

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XRP Short Squeeze Builds as Whales Pull Millions From Binance Amid Negative Funding Rate

TLDR:

  • XRP funding rate on Binance hit -0.00292847, confirming short sellers are paying premiums to hold positions.
  • Whale-to-exchange transactions spiked to 3,049, far above the 7-day average of 751 recorded on Binance.
  • XRP exchange netflow hit -7.79M in 24 hours, over six times the 30-day moving average of -1.15M XRP.
  • The Speculation-to-Utility Ratio of 1.3827 shows real network demand backs XRP amid current bearish sentiment.

XRP derivatives data on Binance shows a sharp buildup of short positions as the asset trades near $1.4394. The funding rate has turned negative at -0.00292847, meaning sellers are paying premiums to hold their bets.

Meanwhile, the asset recorded a 3.34% weekly retraction. Exchange netflow data reveals that large players moved roughly 7.79 million XRP off Binance in 24 hours, far above the 30-day average outflow of 1.15 million XRP.

Derivatives Data Points to a Potential Short Squeeze

The bearish lean in XRP derivatives is clear from current Binance data. A negative funding rate means short traders are actively paying to keep their positions open. This dynamic often signals an overcrowded trade rather than a structural breakdown in price.

Adding to this picture, the Taker Buy-Sell Ratio sits at 0.9723, showing that sell-side pressure edges out buying activity.

However, an overcrowded short position can quickly reverse when price moves against sellers. That reversal mechanism is commonly known as a short squeeze.

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Cryptoquant analyst GugaOnChain noted that “bets against XRP surge in Binance derivatives, but the magnitude of the institutional outflow signals accumulation.”

The comment came alongside on-chain data showing a spike in whale-to-exchange transactions. Those transactions, at 3,049 over the observed period, stood well above the 7-day average of 751.

When price breaks local resistance levels, short sellers face forced liquidations. Those liquidations push the price higher, triggering a cascade that accelerates the move upward. That mechanism, combined with current positioning, creates the setup the analyst described.

On-Chain Data Shows Consistent Network Utility Behind XRP

Beyond the derivatives market, on-chain settlement data offers a broader view of XRP’s activity. The network processed 298.15 million XRP in settlement volume during the period reviewed. That figure supports the idea that the ledger is seeing real transactional demand, not just speculative interest.

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The Speculation-to-Utility Ratio currently stands at 1.3827. This reading suggests that while speculation is present, it does not vastly outpace actual network usage.

A ratio hovering near 1.38 shows the two sides remain relatively balanced. That balance helps sustain the network’s credibility during volatile price swings.

The 7.79 million XRP outflow from Binance stood dramatically above the 30-day moving average of 1.15 million XRP.

Outflows of this size typically reflect assets moving into cold storage or self-custody wallets. Large players generally do this when they intend to hold rather than sell in the near term.

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Taken together, the on-chain data presents a different narrative from what the derivatives market suggests. While sentiment in futures markets leans bearish, the actual movement of XRP off exchanges points toward accumulation.

If spot demand picks up and price pushes past key resistance levels, the crowded short trade could unwind quickly.

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Federal Agency Sues New York Over Prediction Market Ban

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Federal Agency Sues New York Over Prediction Market Ban

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission sued New York to block the state from enforcing its gambling laws against federally registered prediction market exchanges.

The complaint filed in the Southern District of New York seeks a declaratory judgment confirming federal preemption, plus a permanent injunction barring state action against CFTC-registered designated contract markets.

Fourth State in CFTC’s Prediction Market Fight

New York joins Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois on the agency’s docket. The CFTC sued the other three states earlier this month over parallel enforcement campaigns aimed at registered prediction market venues.

A federal judge in Arizona granted the agency a temporary restraining order halting that state’s criminal case against CFTC-regulated platforms. The CFTC has also filed an amicus brief in the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals defending its preemption argument before appellate judges.

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New York’s regulators previously hit registered platforms with cease-and-desist letters and civil suits. Chairman Michael Selig accused the state of disregarding longstanding federal precedent by treating CFTC-listed event contracts as illegal gambling products subject to state licensure rules.

Mike Selig, Source: X

Massachusetts Amicus Filed Same Day

The agency simultaneously filed an amicus brief in the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court in Commonwealth of Massachusetts v. KalshiEx LLC. Attorney General Andrea Campbell previously secured a preliminary injunction blocking Kalshi from offering sports event contracts to Massachusetts customers.

The brief argues the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state laws applied to CFTC-regulated markets. Selig said Congress assigned the agency sole authority over commodity derivatives, prediction markets included.

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Kalshi recently prevailed at the Third Circuit Court of Appeals in a parallel New Jersey case, strengthening the federal preemption argument. Kalshi and Polymarket together face more than a dozen state and tribal challenges over sports and political event contracts.

Trading Climbs as Prediction Markets Go Mainstream

Trading activity on both platforms has climbed through early 2026, with sports event contracts emerging as the central flashpoint between state and federal authorities. Google Finance recently integrated Kalshi and Polymarket odds data, pulling prediction market pricing further into mainstream financial coverage.

Federal courts in New York and Massachusetts will now rule on whether the Exchange Act blocks state gambling claims. Their decisions, alongside the CFTC’s Ninth Circuit amicus and the Arizona restraining order, could shape national rules for a fast-growing industry that operates across every state.

The post Federal Agency Sues New York Over Prediction Market Ban appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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