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BTC rally showing lack of conviction, says analyst

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BTC rally showing lack of conviction, says analyst

Bitcoin’s recent climb toward $80,000 is showing signs of strain, with low trading volume and muted derivatives activity raising questions about how durable the rally may be.

In a weekly report, 10x Research head Markus Thielen pointed to a disconnect between price action and underlying market participation. “Bitcoin rallied 4.7% over the past week, yet the accompanying data tells a cautious story beneath the surface,” he wrote.

Trading volumes have dropped sharply. Bitcoin weekly volume came in 17% below average, while ether (ETH) volume fell 20%. At the same time, funding rates — a measure of leveraged positioning — remain deeply negative. “Funding rates fell 6.8% to the 3rd percentile and volumes collapsed 33% to the 4th percentile,” Thielen said, adding that the move higher “was driven by spot buying or short covering rather than leveraged long conviction.”

That distinction matters. Spot buying, often linked to institutional demand, tends to be steadier but less explosive than leveraged trades. It also leaves the market without the kind of momentum typically seen in strong bull runs.

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Institutional flows have been a bright spot. Bitcoin ETFs have recorded nine consecutive days of inflows, helping push total April inflows to $2.5 billion. Bitcoin dominance has also climbed to 60%, signaling capital is concentrating in the largest cryptocurrency rather than spreading across the market.

Still, Thielen cautioned that the rally’s structure remains fragile. “The market has shifted from a more actively traded environment to one where participants are largely on the sidelines,” he wrote, describing a “low-funding, low-volume regime that historically reflects hesitation rather than momentum.”

Options markets reinforce that view. Volatility has fallen into the lower quartile of its historical range, and traders are pricing in relatively modest price swings over the coming week. “The market is pricing in a relatively calm environment,” the report noted, even as sentiment gauges approach elevated levels.

Ethereum paints a similar picture, though with even weaker participation. Volumes have dropped more than 50%, and derivatives positioning shows limited appetite for risk. “The volume implosion points to a market where conviction remains low, and participants are largely disengaged,” Thielen said.

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Despite these signals, the setup is not outright bearish. With leveraged long positions limited, the risk of forced liquidations on the downside is reduced. “Near-term risk/reward is asymmetric to the upside if a catalyst emerges,” Thielen wrote.

That catalyst may come from outside the crypto space. The report highlights macroeconomic developments as the key factor that could determine direction in the days ahead. For now, bitcoin’s rally appears intact, but without stronger participation, it may struggle to hold unless broader market conditions provide support.

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3 Altcoins to Watch in Final Week of April With Onyxcoin Up 30%

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3 Altcoins to Watch in Final Week of April With Onyxcoin Up 30%

Three altcoins entered the final week of April 2026 at sharply different technical inflection points. Onyxcoin (XCN) printed a 47% daily gain while Rain (RAIN) and STABLE held their Fibonacci structures.

The three setups span a breakout retest, a neutral consolidation, and a healthy pullback. Each chart prints distinct signals on the daily timeframe heading into May.

3 Altcoins to Watch This Week

Onyxcoin (XCN) Surges to Lead Altcoins in Final Week of April

Onyxcoin (XCN) led the group on April 27 with a 47.20% daily gain. Price pushed to $0.0086 intraday, its highest level since mid-January. XCN has since pulled back to $0.0069, retesting the resistance zone between $0.0068 and $0.0075.

The Upbit listing provided the catalyst, but the daily structure still looks fragile. The price remains below a descending trendline that dates back to July 2025. Overhead resistance at $0.010 and $0.013 caps any sustained breakout attempt.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) broke out sharply to the upside, suggesting momentum favors the bulls. However, volume on the breakout candle came in below the prior demand spikes from March 26 and January 6.

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If XCN fails to reclaim the $0.0068 to $0.0075 zone as support, the rally may be short-lived. A clean daily close above the descending trendline would shift the structure and open a path toward $0.010.

XCN daily chart / Source: Tradingview

Rain (RAIN) Sits Between Fibonacci 0.382 and 0.5 as Volume Dries Up

Rain (RAIN) trades at $0.00745 on the daily chart. The token sits between the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at $0.0077 and the 0.5 retracement at $0.0067. The grid runs from the November 9, 2025, low of $0.0024 to the February 9, 2026, high of $0.011.

The 0.5 level has acted as the first line of support for several weeks. Price has repeatedly tested the area, only to bounce. RSI sits at roughly 46, a neutral reading, and daily volume has compressed to the lowest range of the year. Neither buyers nor sellers are pressing the tape.

A deeper correction would target the 0.786 Fibonacci at $0.0042, the next major demand zone visible on the chart. To the upside, the 0.236 Fibonacci at $0.009 marks the first resistance. That level would be the immediate target if buyers step back in.

The setup is binary. Continued absence of volume keeps RAIN coiling between Fibonacci levels. The breakout direction will likely come from a broader altcoin rotation rather than token-specific demand.

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RAIN daily chart / Source: Tradingview

STABLE Holds Higher Highs After Tagging W-Pattern Target

STABLE was the cleanest technical structure of the three. Price hit the W-pattern target from the prior BeInCrypto analysis on April 23. The token then tagged resistance at $0.037 and corrected to the 0.382 Fibonacci at $0.0306 before bouncing.

The daily chart continues to print higher highs and higher lows, the textbook signature of a healthy uptrend. RSI sits at approximately 65, just below the overbought threshold. Price trades at $0.03477 with a 3.95% daily gain.

The next test sits at $0.037, the same level that capped the prior leg up. A daily close above this band, which extends to $0.038, would confirm continuation. The break would likely open a path toward $0.04385, the swing high marked on the Fibonacci grid.

Volume has been declining through the bounce, which signals weakening momentum even as price advances. The structure looks intact. A failure to break $0.037 with conviction would set up another retest of the 0.382 Fibonacci at $0.0306. STABLE remains one of the more constructive altcoins of the cycle on the daily timeframe.

STABLE daily chart / Source: Tradingview

The post 3 Altcoins to Watch in Final Week of April With Onyxcoin Up 30% appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Bitcoin Stalls Below $80K as Geopolitical Risk Returns Ahead of Fed

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BTC Chart

Crude oil jumped as Trump called off Iran peace talks, dragging BTC back below $77,000 and triggering $288 million in long liquidations.

Bitcoin failed at the $80,000 level for the third time this month on Monday, briefly tagging $79,500 before reversing sharply, as a renewed move higher in oil prices amid stalling U.S.-Iran peace talks pushed risk assets into the red ahead of this week’s FOMC decision.

BTC last changed hands at around $76,800 per CoinGecko, down 1.8% over the past 24 hours but still up 1.2% on the week. Ether (ETH) led losses among the majors, falling 3.3% to $2,287. Meanwhile, SOL traded near $84, down 3%, XRP at $1.39, down 2.8%, and BNB at $623, down 2%.

BTC Chart
BTC Chart

Total crypto liquidations reached $435 million over the past 24 hours, according to CoinGlass, with more than 108,000 traders liquidated.

Stalled Peace Talks

President Donald Trump on Sunday called off a planned Pakistan trip by two senior U.S. negotiators, stalling a fresh round of peace talks even as Iran reportedly sent Washington a new proposal over the weekend. The Strait of Hormuz remains under a U.S. naval blockade.

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The risk-off backdrop is unfolding two days before the April 28-29 FOMC meeting. CME FedWatch puts the odds of a rate hold at 100%, with the federal funds rate expected to remain in the 3.50-3.75% range. April carries no fresh dot plot or Summary of Economic Projections, leaving Chair Jerome Powell’s tone the focal point for traders. The Bureau of Economic Analysis releases its advance Q1 GDP estimate on Thursday, with PCE and the Employment Cost Index expected the same morning.

ETFs

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $823.7 million in net inflows during the week ending April 24, the fourth consecutive positive week, per SoSoValue. April month-to-date inflows now exceed $2.4 billion, nearly double March’s total. Total BTC ETF AUM stood at $102.64 billion as of Friday, with the products holding 1,322,094 BTC, or roughly 6.3% of the circulating supply.

Spot Ether ETFs added $155 million for the week, their third consecutive positive week, while spot Solana ETFs added $9.4 million and spot XRP ETFs added $15.7 million.

Elsewhere

Strategy disclosed its fourth consecutive weekly Bitcoin purchase, adding 3,273 BTC for $255 million at an average price of $77,906, with the latest fill now sitting roughly 1.4% above spot. Total holdings stand at 818,334 BTC, acquired for roughly $61.81 billion at an average cost basis of $75,537, with chairman Michael Saylor citing a 9.6% year-to-date BTC yield. The buy follows last week’s $2.54 billion accumulation of 34,164 BTC, the firm’s largest since 2024.

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In DeFi, Aave founder Stani Kulechov said the DeFi United recovery fund has reached the level needed to fully re-collateralize rsETH following the April 18 KelpDAO bridge exploit, subject to pending governance votes. Consensys and Ethereum co-founder Joe Lubin committed up to 30,000 ETH, while the Solana Foundation said it would lend USDT on Aave for the first time.

Outlook

With oil at multi-week highs, and four mega-cap tech names (Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon) reporting Wednesday evening after the FOMC decision, the path of least resistance for crypto this week runs through the macro tape rather than crypto-native catalysts.

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Western Union (WU) gears up stablecoin launch to settle global transactions without SWIFT

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Western Union (WU) gears up stablecoin launch to settle global transactions without SWIFT

Western Union (WU) is preparing to roll out a stablecoin strategy that could reshape how the 175-year-old money-transfer company settles payments across its global network.

CEO Devin McGranahan said on the company’s first-quarter earnings call that Western Union’s U.S. dollar stablecoin (USDPT) is in the final stages of readiness and is expected to launch next month. The firm announced in October that the digital dollar will run on Solana (SOL) and will be issued with federally chartered crypto bank Anchorage Digital.

Western Union plans to use the stablecoin first as an alternative to the interbank settlement rails it uses today to move money between the company and its agents.

“We are not originally launching [USDPT] as consumer-facing,” McGranahan said. “We are launching it as an alternative to the interbank SWIFT settlement network that we use today.”

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That matters, he said, because Western Union’s business still depends on legacy banking systems that settle only on business days and can take two or three days in some markets. Stablecoins could allow the company to settle with partners in real time, including over weekends and holidays, while reducing capital tied up in the system, he added.

The second piece of the company’s strategy is the Digital Asset Network (DAN), which lets crypto wallet companies offer Western Union as a cash-out option. Through that network, wallet users will be able to convert digital assets into local currency through Western Union’s retail footprint, McGranahan said.

The company said its partner pipeline represents tens of millions of crypto wallets globally.

Western Union also plans to launch a Stable Card, expected later this year. It will let customers hold funds in stablecoins and spend through card networks. McGranahan said the card could be useful in inflation-sensitive markets where customers want access to U.S. dollar-denominated value with everyday spending utility.

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“We expect to begin rolling this out across dozens of markets with an initial wave targeted for later this year,” he said.

Western Union’s stablecoin push comes as its core remittance business faces pressure, with rival fintechs and crypto payments firms increasingly using blockchain tech for cross-border payments. MoneyGram, for example, is looking to Circle’s USDC stablecoin, while Stripe launched its own stablecoin infrastructure with a payments-focused chain Tempo.

Read more: DoorDash is bringing stablecoin payments to masses with Stripe-backed blockchain

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Solana Developers Prepare Quantum-Resistant Upgrade Plan

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TLDR

  • Solana Foundation confirmed that its core developer teams selected Falcon as a post-quantum digital signature solution.
  • Anza and Jump Crypto’s Firedancer independently agreed on adopting Falcon for future network protection.
  • Solana developers have already started building and testing early versions of Falcon implementations.
  • The foundation stated that current quantum computing risks remain distant, but migration plans are ready.
  • Solana outlined a phased roadmap that includes research, wallet updates, and eventual network migration.

Solana Foundation detailed a plan to address future quantum computing risks and protect network security. The foundation confirmed that core developers aligned on a post-quantum signature standard. It said the threat remains distant, yet teams have prepared migration strategies.

Solana Aligns Core Teams on Falcon Quantum-Resistant Signatures

The Solana Foundation said its core teams selected Falcon as a post-quantum digital signature scheme. Anza and Jump Crypto’s Firedancer reached the same conclusion through independent technical reviews. The foundation stated that both teams have started building early Falcon implementations for testing.

The foundation said Solana developers examined performance tradeoffs before selecting Falcon for integration. The network’s high-speed design requires low latency and efficient cryptography. However, developers concluded that Falcon can operate within existing technical limits without harming throughput.

The foundation said it will continue research and testing before any protocol change. It added that developers understand migration steps and maintain readiness for deployment. “Quantum is still years away,” the foundation said in its blog update.

Roadmap Covers Wallet Migration and Ecosystem Tools

Solana outlined a phased roadmap for introducing post-quantum protections across the network. The plan includes research on Falcon and other cryptographic options. It also covers potential deployment for new wallets if quantum risks increase.

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The foundation said developers could introduce post-quantum schemes for newly created wallets first. Later, teams would migrate existing wallets through planned updates. The foundation stated that such a transition would remain manageable under the current infrastructure.

The blog post also referenced ecosystem work that already supports quantum resistance. Blueshift launched its Winternitz Vault primitive on Solana more than two years ago. The foundation said Google Quantum AI recently cited this implementation in research materials.

The foundation explained that Winternitz Vault operates as a quantum-resistant primitive on chain. It allows users to store assets with alternative cryptographic safeguards. Developers have maintained the tool live on Solana without protocol disruption.

Solana developers stated that they will monitor advances in quantum computing research. They will adjust timelines based on scientific progress and industry benchmarks. The foundation emphasized that no immediate network changes are scheduled.

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The foundation said internal testing of Falcon implementations will continue across both core teams. Anza and Firedancer engineers will refine performance benchmarks during development cycles. The foundation confirmed that deployment would follow clear governance processes.

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PENGU token jumps 14% amid Pudgy Penguins floor price pump

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PENGU token jumps 14% amid Pudgy Penguins floor price pump
  • Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) price touched $0.010 amid double-digit gains.
  • The token surged as the Pudgy Penguins floor price pumped.
  • Other non-fungible tokens also soared, including the Bored Ape Yacht Club.

Pudgy Penguins’ native PENGU token is up double digits in the past 24 hours, riding high on skyrocketing floor prices to touch three-month highs.

This surge comes amid notable price increases in the Pudgy Penguins NFT, with other tokens related to the sector also experiencing significant gains.

However, an uptick for Bitcoin and Ethereum fizzled on Monday, a scenario that puts the tokens’ prices in danger of retreating amid profit-taking.

Pudgy Penguins soars 14% amid NFT price gains

Data shows top non-fungible token collections are experiencing a remarkable resurgence, with floor prices extending their upside momentum.

Pudgy Penguins currently leads the charge as its floor price climbs above 5 ETH, with over 20% in weekly gains.

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Market data highlights this momentum, with over 20 sales and nearly 1,000 ETH in trading volume over the past seven days.

The Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) NFT boosts similar metrics and shows an 81% spike in floor price over the last 30 days.

Yet, this optimism contrasts with contracting overall NFT market participation.

Global sales, transactions, and active users have nearly halved since February, even as average sale prices have more than doubled.

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This divergence suggests a concentration of capital among high-value collections like Pudgy Penguins, potentially signaling selective bullishness rather than broad recovery.

Notably, PENGU price is up 40% over the past week, and the 14% gain in the last 24 hours has pushed it to above $0.010 for the first time since late January.

Pudgy Penguins is in double digits up year-to-date.

​Pudgy Penguins price analysis

Analysts attribute the NFT rally primarily to surging cryptocurrency prices, with Bitcoin (BTC) recently touching $80,000 and Ethereum (ETH) reaching $2,400.

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The broader market sentiment looks to have amplified demand for top-tier NFTs, where Pudgy Penguins has stood out with elevated transaction counts accompanying its price climb.

In the market, surging floor prices typically reflect strong conviction, and the opposite shows amid declining floor prices.

PENGU gains mirror Pudgy Penguins’ NFT momentum, and the upmove lifts bulls above the $0.008 supply zone.

The surge to above $0.010 makes the 100-day and 50-day moving averages key support levels at $0.0082 and $0.007.

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Pudgy Penguins PENGU Chart
Pudgy Penguins price chart by TradingView

Among technical indicators to note is the Relative Strength Index (RSI) that currently hovers above 70, signalling overbought conditions.

Traders may need to watch out for NFT market fatigue or a significant BTC pullback.

If this happens, PENGU price could test lower support levels, including Feb 6 low of $0.0052.

On the flipside, the moving averages hint at a potential golden cross, with price likely to extend towards the YTD peak around $0.014.

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Shibarium Records 1B Transactions Amid Wallet Growth

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TLDR

  • Shiba Inu added 24000 new wallets between April 20 and April 27, 2026.
  • The total number of SHIB holders surpassed 1.585 million, reaching a new high for 2026.
  • On April 25, the network recorded its largest daily increase with 10718 new holders.
  • Shibarium has processed more than 1 billion total transactions since its launch.
  • The team confirmed the updated wallet and transaction data on April 27, 2026.

Shiba Inu (SHIB) recorded sharp user growth and network activity between April 20 and April 27, 2026. The team reported 24,000 new wallets during the period, pushing total holders above 1.585 million. At the same time, Shibarium processed more than 1 billion transactions, marking a new network record.

SHIB Wallet Count Climbs to 1.585 Million

Shiba Inu’s team shared updated wallet data on April 27 through its official X account. The update confirmed that SHIB holders increased by 24,000 wallets within one week. As a result, the total number of SHIB wallets surpassed 1.585 million, reaching a new high for 2026.

The data showed the largest daily rise occurred on April 25. On that day, the network added 10,718 new holders, which marked the strongest daily growth this year. The team stated, “The ecosystem continues to expand as new users join the network each day.”

Earlier in the week, wallet growth began to accelerate from April 20. The steady rise continued through April 24 before the sharp spike on April 25. This pattern reflected rising participation during the recent crypto market rebound.

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After the peak day, growth levels moderated but remained positive. On April 26, the network added 1,040 new holders. On April 27, it recorded another 1,100 new wallets, according to the team’s update.

These additions brought the cumulative holder count to its current level. The team described the increase as a continuation of rising engagement across the ecosystem. The figures reflect on-chain wallet data recorded during the reporting period.

Shibarium Surpasses 1 Billion Transactions

Shibarium also reached a new usage milestone during the same period. The layer 2 network processed more than 1 billion transactions, according to the shared data. This achievement places Shibarium among networks with high cumulative activity counts.

The team confirmed the milestone while outlining recent network statistics. It stated, “Shibarium has now crossed 1 billion total transactions.” The update linked the transaction growth to expanding network usage.

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Transaction volumes increased as wallet numbers climbed during the week. The network handled daily transfers that contributed to the cumulative total. Each processed transaction is added to the overall count tracked on-chain.

Shibarium operates as Shiba Inu’s layer 2 scaling solution. The network supports faster transactions and lower fees compared to the main Ethereum chain. Developers continue to build and deploy projects within the ecosystem.

The 1 billion transaction mark reflects total processed transfers since launch. The data covers all confirmed transactions recorded on the network ledger. The team released the figures alongside updated holder statistics on April 27, 2026.

The latest wallet additions and transaction totals represent the most recent verified data. Shibarium’s cumulative transaction count now stands above 1 billion as of April 27. Total SHIB wallet addresses exceed 1.585 million based on on-chain records.

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BitMine Expands ETH Holdings Despite $6.5B in Unrealized Losses

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BitMine Expands ETH Holdings Despite $6.5B in Unrealized Losses

BitMine Immersion Technologies, the Ether treasury company backed by Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, has expanded its ETH holdings for the second time in as many weeks, even as large unrealized losses underscore the strategy’s risks.

The company said Monday it purchased an additional 101,901 Ether last week, bringing its total holdings to roughly 5.08 million ETH. Its combined crypto and cash reserves now stand at about $13.3 billion.

Source: Wu Blockchain

The latest acquisition follows a purchase of 101,627 ETH a week earlier, which was the company’s largest accumulation since December.

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Despite the aggressive buying, BitMine is sitting on more than $6.5 billion in unrealized losses, based on total investments of approximately $17.6 billion, highlighting the impact of recent volatility in Ether prices.

The share price of the NYSE-listed BMNR stock is down more than 20% year-to-date, according to Yahoo Finance data.

Still, the company is generating yield on a portion of its holdings. BitMine has staked roughly 3.7 million ETH, allowing it to earn rewards for helping secure the Ethereum network and validate transactions, a strategy that provides a steady income stream even during price downturns.

BitMine’s unrealized losses on its ETH treasury have topped $6.5 billion. Source: Dropstab

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Related: Crypto Biz: Same players, bigger bets as crypto eyes a rebound

Ether, crypto markets show signs of stabilization

BitMine’s large purchases come as the broader crypto market shows early signs of stabilizing after months of declines through March.

Ether rebounded above $2,400 last week after falling to a low near $1,800 earlier this year, according to TradingView data. Despite the recovery, the second-biggest crypto by market cap remains down roughly 23% year-to-date.

The rebound mirrors a broader uptick across equities and other risk assets in recent weeks, suggesting improving investor sentiment.

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However, the volatility underscores the challenges facing crypto treasury players. Companies that accumulate large digital asset reserves are highly exposed to price swings, which can lead to significant unrealized losses during downturns, even as they continue buying. 

While strategies like staking can generate yield, they often do little to offset large drawdowns in asset value, leaving balance sheets sensitive to market cycles.

Related: Michael Saylor’s Strategy adds 3.2K Bitcoin at nearly $78K per BTC

Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently.

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Peter Schiff Slams Saylor’s $1M Bitcoin Call After 3K BTC Buy

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TLDR

  • Strategy purchased 3,273 Bitcoin for $255 million at an average price of $77,906 per coin.
  • The latest acquisition increased Strategy’s total holdings to 818,334 BTC.
  • The company funded the purchase by selling 1,451,601 MSTR shares through its at-the-market program.
  • Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings are now valued at about $63.7 billion at current market prices.
  • The company’s position has returned to profit with an estimated gain of $1.9 billion.

Strategy expanded its Bitcoin holdings with a new 3,273 BTC purchase worth $255 million. The acquisition lifted total reserves to 818,334 BTC and returned the company to profit. However, Peter Schiff challenged Michael Saylor’s $1 million Bitcoin forecast and questioned the accumulation strategy.

Strategy Expands Bitcoin Holdings With $255M Purchase

Strategy confirmed it purchased 3,273 Bitcoin for about $255.0 million at an average price of $77,906. The company increased its total holdings to 818,334 BTC as of April 26, 2026. It acquired the entire stash for $61.81 billion at an average price of $75,537 per coin.

At current prices near $77,850, the holdings carry a market value of $63.7 billion. This valuation places Strategy at roughly $1.9 billion in profit. Earlier this year, Bitcoin traded below $70,000 and left the company’s position underwater.

Michael Saylor announced the purchase on X and reported a 9.6% Bitcoin Yield year-to-date in 2026. He also released the company’s Form 8-K filing with the U.S. SEC. The filing detailed that Strategy funded the purchase through its at-the-market equity program.

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Between April 20 and April 26, 2026, Strategy sold 1,451,601 MSTR shares. The share sales generated $255.0 million in net proceeds after commissions. During the same period, the company sold no preferred stock.

Schiff Challenges $1 Million Bitcoin Prediction

Peter Schiff responded to Saylor’s update and targeted his $1 million Bitcoin forecast. In 2025, Saylor said Bitcoin could reach $1 million if Strategy acquired 5% of the total supply. Schiff argued that current accumulation trends do not support that outlook.

Schiff stated that Strategy now controls about 3.9% of the total Bitcoin supply. He said the company purchased 231,666 BTC since Saylor made the forecast. According to Schiff, similar price reactions to future purchases could push Bitcoin below $60,000 before Strategy reaches 5%.

He wrote that “if the next 231,666 BTC move the market as the last ones did, the price could be under $60,000.” Schiff used this calculation to dispute the $1 million target. He has repeatedly supported gold as an alternative store of value.

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Schiff also criticized claims about covering a reported 11.5% yield on STRC with modest Bitcoin growth. He argued that continuous issuance raises the required price increase. He said falling STRC prices could force higher yields and strain the structure.

According to Schiff, selling Bitcoin to cover yields would pressure the market. He warned that such actions could trigger a “death spiral” unless Strategy cancels the dividend. Strategy’s latest Form 8-K filing, dated April 27, 2026, confirms the recent equity-funded purchase.

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Bitcoin Rally Builds on Leverage as Spot Demand Lags

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TLDR

  • Bitcoin reached $79,488 before easing to $78,223 as futures activity powered the latest price move.
  • CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said the current Bitcoin rally is driven by derivatives, not strong spot demand.
  • On-chain data shows Bitcoin’s 30-day apparent demand metric remains in negative territory.
  • Michael Saylor’s firm, Strategy, purchased $255 million in Bitcoin after a $2.54 billion acquisition last week.
  • Bitcoin ETFs acquired more than $2.6 billion worth of BTC this month despite weak on-chain demand.

Bitcoin climbed toward two-month highs as derivatives activity powered the latest advance. The asset reached $79,488 before easing to $78,223 during the session. However, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said futures markets, not spot demand, drive the current Bitcoin rally.

Bitcoin Rally Fueled by Futures While Spot Demand Stays Weak

Ki Young Ju stated that derivatives traders lead the present move in Bitcoin. He said rising open interest shows traders are increasing leverage across futures markets.

He explained, “This rally is futures-driven,” and he pointed to negative on-chain demand data. CryptoQuant data shows Bitcoin’s 30-day apparent demand metric remains below zero.

Meanwhile, institutional buyers continued acquisitions through direct purchases and exchange-traded funds. Michael Saylor’s firm, Strategy, bought $255 million in Bitcoin after acquiring $2.54 billion last week.

At the same time, Bitcoin ETFs accumulated more than $2.6 billion worth of BTC this month. Yet on-chain metrics did not reflect matching growth in spot-driven demand.

CryptoQuant data showed futures demand in strong positive territory during the same period. However, Ju said bear cycles end only when both spot and futures demand recover together.

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He added that current data does not show that alignment. Therefore, the structure behind the Bitcoin rally remains uneven.

Short Squeeze Accelerates Bitcoin Price Surge

On April 23, Bitcoin rose from $76,351 to $79,447 within hours. The move marked a 4.05% increase during that session.

Carmelo Alemán, an on-chain analyst at CryptoQuant, attributed the surge to forced liquidations. He said short traders closed positions rapidly as prices climbed.

Open interest jumped from $24.88 billion to nearly $28 billion during the rally. This rise showed a sharp increase in leveraged futures positions.

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Short liquidations exceeded $607.9 million in Bitcoin during that move. Ethereum short liquidations reached $580.9 million in the same period.

Together, short liquidations totaled about $1.19 billion across both assets. In contrast, long liquidations remained just above $111 million combined.

Alemán said the imbalance highlighted strong pressure on bearish traders. As shorts closed, forced buying pushed prices higher.

CryptoQuant data indicated that derivatives activity expanded faster than spot transactions. Therefore, leverage played a central role in the advance.

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Ju reiterated that on-chain demand still shows weakness despite price gains. He stated that negative apparent demand contrasts with rising futures exposure.

Bitcoin traded near $78,223 after touching $79,488 earlier in the day. Open interest remained elevated near $28 billion at the latest reading.

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Will Oil Price Drop Again or Has the Supply Shock Rewritten the Playbook?

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Brent Crude Bearish Divergence

Oil prices are sitting in the same chart setup that triggered a 13% drop two weeks ago, but the options market and a deepening supply shock have rewritten the variables that determine whether the drop happens again or fails.

Brent crude trades at $101.39 on April 27, up 2.28% on the day and just below the $107.46 high it rejected on April 23. The pattern that triggered April’s drop is back. But the conditions around it are different.

Bearish Divergence Mirrors the Setup That Crashed Brent Crude 13% in April

Since March 9, Brent crude has traded inside a falling channel, a bearish pattern. Within that channel, the pattern flashing now is the same one that preceded April’s drop.

Between January 29 and April 23, Brent printed a higher swing high in price while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) printed a lower swing high. That is a textbook bearish divergence, where price strength outpaces underlying momentum and often signals a trend reversal.

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The precedent is uncomfortable. The same divergence formed between January 29 and April 16. Brent then rolled over and dropped over 13% to a local low of $86.09.

Want more insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Newsletter here.

Brent Crude Bearish Divergence
Brent Crude Bearish Divergence: TradingView

The pattern playing out today is structurally identical, with the same channel, the same momentum failure, and a similar rejection at the upper boundary. If the playbook holds, oil price faces a measured drop back toward the channel floor near $81.72.

Goldman, Inventory Draws, and a Collapsing Put-Call Ratio Disagree With the Chart

The chart says one thing. The options market says another. The United States Brent Oil Fund (BNO), a US-listed exchange-traded fund (ETF) that tracks Brent crude prices, gives a clean window into how options traders are positioning.

On April 16, when the prior bearish divergence flashed, BNO’s volume put-call ratio, a measure of bearish versus bullish bets in daily options flow, sat at 0.18, while its open interest put-call ratio, which measures standing positioning, was 0.25.

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Brent then dropped 13%.

BNO Put-Call Ratio April 16
BNO Put-Call Ratio April 16: BarChart

By April 23, when the latest divergence printed, the picture flipped. Volume put-call collapsed to 0.05, and open interest put-call dropped to 0.16, indicating shorts were liquidated and call demand surged.

Implied volatility (IV), the market’s expectation of future price swings, sits at 80.41% with an IV percentile at 88%, signaling traders are pricing a large move ahead.

BNO Put-Call Ratio Collapse
BNO Put-Call Ratio Collapse: BarChart

The supply side explains the bullish positioning. Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 2026 Brent forecast to $90 per barrel from $80 on Monday, citing 14.5 million barrels per day in Persian Gulf production losses and global inventory drawdowns running at 11 to 12 million barrels per day.

That is the structural fuel keeping a bid under oil price, even as the technical picture warns of a drop.

Oil Price Levels Make $99.17 the Trigger, $107.46 the Reversal

The decision sits at $99.17, the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), where EMA is a trend line that averages price with more weight on recent candles.

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On April 13, when oil price lost the 20-day EMA, a 13% drop accelerated within sessions. The same line is now sitting just below the current price.

A daily close above $101.40, the 0.236 Fibonacci level, keeps the bullish path open and points back toward $107.46. A clean break above $107.46 confirms the supply shock thesis. It opens room toward $119.11, the upper channel boundary.

However, a $99.17 loss mirrors the April 13 trigger.

Oil Price Analysis
Oil Price Analysis: TradingView

It then exposes $97.64 at the 0.382 Fibonacci level, with $94.60 at the 0.5 Fibonacci level as the next test. The decisive cluster sits at $91.56, the 0.618 Fibonacci, which is the strongest support on the daily chart.

A break below $91.56 opens $87.23 and then $81.72, the channel floor that would complete the repeat-of-April scenario.

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For now, $99.17 separates a bearish repeat from a supply-shock-driven rally.

The post Will Oil Price Drop Again or Has the Supply Shock Rewritten the Playbook? appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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