Crypto World
GBP/USD Declines After Bank of England Decision
Yesterday’s decision by the Bank of England came as a surprise to forex traders. While the Official Bank Rate was left unchanged at 3.75%, markets were caught off guard by the notably dovish signals regarding future policy.
According to media reports, four out of nine Monetary Policy Committee members voted for an immediate rate cut. This has brought forward expectations of easing by the Bank of England, making the pound less attractive to hold and triggering its weakness yesterday.
Technical Analysis of GBP/USD
Price action in GBP/USD has been forming an upward trend (outlined by a channel) since November last year. However, yesterday’s move has put this channel at risk of a downside break.
It is worth noting that the market had only recently been in a very strong bullish phase. GBP/USD was advancing along the blue support line and even pushed above the upper boundary of the ascending channel.
Sentiment then shifted abruptly. Bears stepped in aggressively, driving the pair lower and breaking through several technical levels in sequence:
→ the blue trendline;
→ the upper boundary of the channel;
→ the channel median, reinforced by the 1.3640 level.
As a result, the price fell towards the lower boundary of the channel, strengthened by the 1.3530 level, which had acted as resistance in late December and early January.
Almost all of the bullish gains made in late January have now been erased. It cannot be ruled out that today’s rebound in GBP/USD is merely a technical recovery — a pause that allows bears to regroup before attempting a break below the lower boundary of the ascending channel, potentially steering the market into a downward trajectory (shown in red).
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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Opinion by: Ashna Vaghela, chief customer officer at Mercuryo, and Vi Powils, CEO at World of Women.
For decades, the financial industry has treated creativity as a high-risk hobby. If you’re a woman building a global brand from a laptop, there is a risk that your bank doesn’t see a CEO. Rather, it sees someone with a non-standard income stream, without collateral, who might have to stop or pause working, to have children. Our global economy champions the middleman while the actual source of value can be treated as an afterthought.
For many women, particularly in emerging markets, creating online is not supplemental income; it is primary income and often the most borderless economic opportunity available to them.
That barrier runs deeper in emerging markets. A creator in Lagos can build a following of millions, only to find that the banking systems turn cross-border payments into a months-long exercise in fees and delays. When you control the flow of capital, you control who gets to stay in business. Women have spent years asking for a seat at the table where the legs were already broken.
The intersection of the creator economy and crypto payment infrastructure offers the first genuine path to financial freedom that doesn’t require anyone’s permission. As we move toward a world where code does the work that banks used to gatekeep, and that shift matters more for women than almost anyone else.
The invisible tax on identity
Legacy finance has failed women and creators in tandem. Venture capital still directs a tiny fraction of its capital to female founders with only 2.3% of venture capital funding having gone to female-founded companies in 2024. Credit scoring still penalizes uneven income, which is the reality for most independent artists. These systems were designed for a 9-to-5 world that is no longer the default way of being.
Layered on top of that is the platform toll. Some take up to 50 percent of earnings before a single cent reaches a creator’s wallet. You’re renting your audience from a landlord who can evict you whenever the terms do not suit them.
Programmable revenue and the end of Net-90
In the old world, a creator sells their work and can wait months to get paid. Smart contracts change this entirely. Revenue splits happen at the point of sale. If an artist collaborates with a developer, the payment doesn’t pool in a corporate account, it moves directly to their respective wallets the moment a transaction clears.
Related: Blockchain restores women’s power in AI
The code becomes the escrow. There’s no chasing invoices, no waiting on platforms to release what you’ve already earned. Hardcoded royalties mean creators benefit from the long-term value of their work regardless of where it’s resold.
While an imperfect system, the structure of onchain royalties is intended to help artists capture value over time, rather than relying solely on single transactions. OpenSea made royalty enforcement optional, which most marketplaces have now followed. This is what we mean by participatory capitalism: a model where the growth of the whole, lifts the people who actually built it. For many artists, especially women building global audiences, this shift is more than technical, it enables consistent revenue without depending on a platform’s schedule or policies.
Infrastructure as the foundation of family
Infrastructure sounds dry until you realise it’s the difference between asking for permission and having power. Community is a multiplier, but infrastructure is the engine. For the millions of women entering the creator economy, crypto rails offer a global passport that doesn’t check for borders or bias.
The community talks a lot about community in Web3, but what is really being described is something closer to family. A community is a group you associate with. A family shows up when things get hard. Stablecoins have become that bridge for creators in regions with volatile currencies, letting them hold the value of their work without needing a bank’s approval.
When you lower friction at both ends of a transaction, the creativity in the middle takes off. There is already seeing a generation of entrepreneurs who don’t need an invitation to the boardroom because they own the system it sits on. Reliable payment rails make the difference between being able to monetize globally and being restricted to local, slow, or costly banking systems, a gap that disproportionately affects women creators in emerging markets.
Moving toward ownership
Inclusion is not a gift. Ownership is holding the deed, not being handed a seat. The shift to Web3 payment infrastructure moves us toward that deed. This moment is about refusing to let legacy systems set the value of creative communities. The infrastructure is ready. The only thing left is for the creators to lead.
Let us stop waiting for the system to change. Let us continue to the payment rails that replace it.
Opinion by: Ashna Vaghela, chief customer officer at Mercuryo, and Vi Powils, CEO of World of Women.
This opinion article presents the author’s expert view, and it may not reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. This content has undergone editorial review to ensure clarity and relevance. Cointelegraph remains committed to transparent reporting and upholding the highest standards of journalism. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research before taking any actions related to the company.
Dozens of Kash Patel-themed tokens appeared on memecoin launchpad Pump Fun this weekend, after Iranian hackers leaked his personal email along with a burner username that some believe has been used to comment on pornographic videos.
The Iranian government-linked collective published over 300 emails, personal photos, and a resume from Patel’s Gmail account on Friday.
Among the leaked details was an alias, “spiderkash,” that Patel used with a burner email. Researchers searched for exact matches for that handle across the internet and found a profile on XVideos, a pornography website.
Spiderkash created its porn account on January 5, 2020 to review and leave comments on adult videos.
While it’s not been confirmed that the account actually belongs to Patel, crypto promoters believed they had enough evidence with the exact character match.
No official statement has confirmed or denied the connection, and there’s little reason for Patel to clarify.
Nevertheless, screenshots spread across X within hours, racking up millions of views and the profile soon became restricted.
Read more: Research finds less than 0.002% of Pump.fun memecoins succeed
Dozens of Kash Patel porn memecoins, one outcome
Within hours of Patel’s email leak, dozens of promoters created memecoins bearing the Spiderkash username appeared on Pump Fun.
One token named after Patel’s actual leaked email address, [email protected], peaked within one minute of launch before crashing 87% five minutes later and never recovering.
The largest by market cap spiked to a $104,000 value within hours of launch. However, one hour after its peak, it had collapsed 70%.
Within 12 hours it was 87% off its peak and by Saturday night, peak-to-trough losses exceeded 90%.
A third Spiderkash-inspired memecoin called Mayhem reached $5,500 before falling 85% to just $818 within seconds. it never recovered.
One Pump Fun wallet deployed four Spiderkash tokens in the same hour. Each remained at Pump Fun’s starting market cap and, despite illiquid wicks to high prices, never attracted any meaningful trading.
Dozens were trading 90% below their momentary all-time highs.
Iranian hackers previously targeted Patel in December 2024, before his confirmation as FBI director, claiming that the breach was retaliation for the DOJ seizing several of its websites on March 19.
Got a tip? Send us an email securely via Protos Leaks. For more informed news, follow us on X, Bluesky, and Google News, or subscribe to our YouTube channel.
Chainlink (LINK) joined Ethereum (ETH) as a top performer, up 4.1% since Friday.
Aave, one of the largest decentralized lending platforms, debuted its long-awaited v4 upgrade on Ethereum, aiming to push DeFi beyond crypto trading and into broader financial markets.
The upgrade has been in development for about two years and is designed to make it easier to use Aave for a wider range of lending and borrowing activities, including those tied to real-world assets.
The introduction follows months of internal debate over governance and value flow through the protocol. Disputes over interface fees, contributor roles and proposals to redirect product revenue to the decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) have highlighted tensions between decentralization and coordination, even as the work progressed.
At a basic level, v4 changes how Aave organizes its markets. Instead of grouping everything together, the new system allows different types of lending markets to operate separately while still sharing the same pool of funds.
That means users could eventually borrow and lend against more than just crypto tokens.
For Aave Labs founder Stani Kulechov, the shift reflects a broader change in how decentralized finance is evolving. “Lending is based on trust… you need lending conditions that reflect market conditions,” he said in an interview with CoinDesk.
The upgrade is designed to better handle that complexity. By separating different market types while sharing liquidity, Aave aims to support everything from traditional crypto lending to more complex situations like institutional borrowing and real-world assets.
It also opens the door for others to build on top of the protocol more easily.
“It also means that other teams can come and build and expand that infrastructure,” Kulechov said.
Another goal is to make better use of the capital already in the system.
“There’s some technical improvements where the float … can be reinvested,” Kulechov said, referring to idle funds that can now be deployed more efficiently.
The new version went live with a limited set of markets and conservative settings. More features are likely to be added following governance decisions.
“DeFi is stronger than ever,” Kulechov said. “A lot of these opportunities will come from value outside of DeFi.
Read more: Aave labs proposes ‘Aave Will Win’ plan to send 100% of product revenue to DAO
A government app released this week has ignited a debate over location-tracking, data collection and security, with researchers and privacy advocates urging closer scrutiny of the permissions it requests. The White House rolled out the app on Friday, framing it as a direct line to the administration for breaking news, livestreams and policy updates.
Critics say the app’s permission model raises questions about privacy, especially since store listings on Google Play and Apple’s App Store do not display explicit warnings about the requested access. The White House privacy policy describes data handling that appears broader than the app’s stated use, noting it automatically stores information such as the originating IP address and other basic data, and that it may retain subscriber names and email addresses—even though providing that information is not required to use the app.
On its face, the app is marketed as a transparent communications channel, but independent analyses have flagged unusual data-collection aspects, particularly the inclusion of location services in a tool that shows no obvious location-based features such as maps, geofenced content or weather. A software developer who uses the X handle Thereallo, together with Adam, a security engineer and infrastructure architect, identified code that could enable GPS access on the device. They argue that GPS usage in this context is atypical and merits closer examination. For context, their observations have not been independently verified.
Adam noted that the mere presence of location capabilities could introduce risk, particularly if such functionality can be activated by an update or is exploited by a malicious actor. “There is no map, no local news, no geofencing, no events near you, no weather. Nothing in the app that requires location,” he said, underscoring the mismatch between expected use and the permissions being requested.
Security assessment and risk vectors
Thereallo published a deeper analysis suggesting the app could contain code that would allow tracking a device every 4.5 minutes when foregrounded and every 9.5 minutes in the background, though this claim has not been independently validated. The researchers emphasized that while the app still requires permissions, the underlying tracking infrastructure could be activated with a minimal trigger in the right conditions. In addition to GPS data, they flagged the collection of notification interactions, in-app message clicks and phone numbers.
“No servers were probed. No network traffic was intercepted. No DRM was bypassed. No tools were used that require jailbreaking. Everything described here is observable by anyone who downloads the app from the App Store and has a terminal.”
The discussions have also touched on broader security concerns. Adam warned that the app’s security may be vulnerable to interception or manipulation by skilled actors on the same Wi‑Fi network, such as in public spaces, or by users with jailbroken devices capable of runtime modification. He cautioned that the combination of permissive data access and weak defenses could open doors to data leakage or altered behavior if an attacker gains foothold in the device’s communications stack.
Researchers have cited external posts and analyses to support their findings. For example, a detailed security write-up by Thereallo references a decompilation of the app and points to potential telemetry and data-access pathways. Additional context has circulated around accompanying discussions on social media, including posts that surfaced on X.
Policy gaps and broader implications for users and markets
Within the crypto and broader digital-privacy communities, the episode underscores a recurring theme: the trust users place in digital tools—whether a government app or a crypto wallet interface—depends on clear, auditable data practices and minimal, justified permissions. While the White House app is not a crypto product, the situation matters to builders and users who rely on public-facing platforms for custody, identity verification and timely communications. It highlights how privacy-by-design considerations—especially around location data and telemetry—are increasingly front and center for any digital service that touches sensitive information.
From a regulatory perspective, the divergence between what is stated in privacy policies and what is visible in store listings can become fertile ground for scrutiny. Google Play indicates that personal data may be collected during download and use, while Apple’s App Store directs users to the White House privacy policy for further details. The absence of visible, explicit warnings about location permission on the storefronts could be interpreted as a disclosure gap, prompting calls for clearer consent and more transparent user notifications in government apps and similar public-interest deployments.
As policymakers and technologists digest the incident, several questions loom: Why is location access required at all for a news-and-updates app with no geolocation features? Will the administration publish an independent security assessment or a clearer privacy-by-design pledge? And how might these disclosures influence future digital-government projects and the adoption of privacy-enhancing technologies in more sensitive domains?
Industry watchers may also consider the broader market implications. The episode touches on a tension that resonates across the crypto ecosystem: the need for robust, transparent security postures in any platform that handles user data or communications. For users, the key takeaway is to monitor disclosures around permissions and to expect clearer explanations about why location data is being requested, especially for government-run software that arrives with high public visibility.
In the near term, observers should watch how the White House and its contractors respond. Clarifications on the necessity of location permissions, any forthcoming security audits, and possible revisions to privacy disclosures will be important signals about how seriously authorities intend to uphold privacy as public digital services scale.
For readers and market participants, the episode reinforces a practical takeaway: privacy and security commitments in public-facing tech—whether for government apps or crypto services—are only as credible as the transparency and accountability that accompany them. Continued scrutiny and independent testing will likely shape how such apps evolve and how users balance convenience with data safety in an increasingly digital world.
GBP/USD failed to climb above 1.3500 and corrected some gains. EUR/GBP started a decent increase and might aim for more gains above 0.8700.
Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today
· The British Pound is showing bearish signs below the 1.3400 support.
· There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.3280 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
· EUR/GBP is gaining pace and trading above the 0.8660 pivot level.
· There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at 0.8670 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair failed to stay above the 1.3450 pivot level. As a result, the British Pound started a fresh decline below 1.3400 against the US Dollar.
There was a clear move below 1.3340 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The bears pushed the pair below 1.3250. Finally, there was a spike toward the 1.3200 handle. A low was formed near 1.3202, and the pair is now consolidating losses.
There was a minor move above 1.3240 and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3479 swing high to the 1.3202 low. On the upside, the GBP/USD chart indicates that the pair is facing resistance near a key bearish trend line at 1.3280.
A close above the trend line might send the pair toward the 50% Fib retracement at 1.3340. If the bulls remain in action, they could aim for more gains.
In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.3415. The next major hurdle for GBP/USD sits at 1.3480. On the downside, there is a key support forming near 1.3200. If there is a downside break below 1.3200, the pair could accelerate lower. The next key interest area might be 1.3160, below which the pair could test 1.3120. Any more downside could lead the pair toward 1.3050.
EUR/GBP Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of EUR/GBP at FXOpen, the pair started a decent increase from 0.8635. The Euro traded above 0.8650 to enter a positive zone against the British Pound.
The pair settled above the 50-hour simple moving average and 0.8660. The pair traded as high as 0.8687 before there was a minor pullback, but the pair stayed above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.8636 swing low to the 0.8687 high.
However, the pair is stable above 0.8670. Besides, there is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at 0.8670.
A downside break below 0.8670 might call for more downsides. In the stated case, the pair could drop toward the 50% Fib retracement level at 0.8660. Any more losses might call for an extended drop toward the 0.8635 pivot zone.
If there is another increase, the EUR/GBP chart suggests that the pair is facing hurdles near 0.8685. A close above 0.8685 might accelerate gains. In the stated case, the bulls may perhaps aim for a test of 0.8700. Any more gains might send the pair to 0.8740.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Key Highlights
- Starcloud secured $170M in Series A funding at a $1.1 billion valuation, achieving unicorn status in just 17 months post-Y Combinator
- The startup is developing orbital data centers in low Earth orbit to overcome terrestrial energy and space limitations
- Successfully deployed the first Nvidia H100 GPU to space in November 2025 and conducted AI training operations
- Second satellite mission scheduled for October 2026 will include AWS Outposts and deliver 100x greater power capacity
- Competition intensifies as SpaceX and Blue Origin announce comparable orbital infrastructure initiatives, including Musk’s million-satellite proposal
A Redmond, Washington-based startup called Starcloud has successfully closed a $170 million Series A funding round. The investment values the company at $1.1 billion, granting it unicorn status merely 17 months following its presentation at Y Combinator’s demo day.
Benchmark and EQT Ventures co-led the financing round. Additional participants included Macquarie Capital, NFX, Y Combinator, along with notable angel backers such as Dennis Muilenburg, former Boeing chief executive, and Kevin Johnson, who previously led Starbucks.
This latest capital injection elevates Starcloud’s cumulative funding to $200 million. Earlier financing rounds brought in $34 million from backers including Andreessen Horowitz and In-Q-Tel, the venture investment division of the CIA.
Starcloud’s mission centers on establishing data processing facilities in low Earth orbit. The strategy leverages the virtually uninterrupted solar energy available in space, eliminating the land availability and power supply challenges that hamper terrestrial data center development.
Constructing traditional Earth-based data centers typically requires up to five years because of regulatory approvals and energy infrastructure lead times. Starcloud contends that orbital infrastructure sidesteps these obstacles completely.
“We’re witnessing the AI revolution hit the hard limits of terrestrial power infrastructure,” stated CEO Philip Johnston. “Relocating AI computation to orbit grants us access to boundless solar energy and eliminates the power constraint entirely.”
Pioneering GPU Deployment in Orbit
Starcloud deployed its inaugural satellite, Starcloud-1, in November 2025, equipped with an Nvidia H100 processor. According to the company, this marked the first instance of this GPU operating in the space environment. The mission achieved another milestone by completing the first orbital AI model training session and executing a variant of Google’s Gemini model beyond Earth’s atmosphere.
The satellite’s design and construction took only 21 months using a modest $3 million pre-seed budget—a timeline the company characterizes as unprecedented in aerospace development.
Starcloud has already established collaborative agreements with Nvidia, Amazon Web Services, and Google Cloud.
Second Mission Set for October Launch
Starcloud’s follow-up satellite, designated Starcloud-2, is scheduled for deployment in October 2026. This spacecraft will transport AWS Outposts equipment and produce 100 times the power output of its predecessor. The satellite will also debut the largest commercial deployable thermal radiator ever launched into space.
Starcloud-2 represents the company’s first satellite designed to process commercial cloud computing tasks for revenue-generating clients, including initial customer Crusoe.
The fresh capital will fund development of next-generation Starcloud-3 satellites, scale up manufacturing operations, expand the workforce, and lock in future launch service agreements.
Long-term projections call for a constellation comprising 88,000 satellites. The company anticipates orbital data centers will achieve price parity with ground-based alternatives by 2028 or 2029, driven by declining launch expenses.
Starcloud faces emerging competition in this sector. SpaceX, under Elon Musk’s leadership, revealed plans in February 2026 for an orbital data center network featuring one million satellites following the acquisition of his AI venture xAI. Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin has similarly signaled interest in comparable infrastructure projects.
Johnston indicated that Starcloud is negotiating energy capacity agreements with major cloud service providers, with public announcements anticipated in upcoming months.
Crypto World
BTC price rises as Trump says U.S. in talks with ‘new regime’ in Iran, threatens oil infrastructure if deal fails
U.S. President Donald Trump said the U.S. is “in serious discussions with a new, and more reasonable, regime” to end military operations in Iran, the first public acknowledgment of a regime change in Tehran since the conflict began five weeks ago.
Using the phrase “new regime” his post on Truth Social suggests the talks involve a leadership structure that was not in place when the war started at the end of February.
In the same post, Trump demanded the Strait of Hormuz be “immediately open for business” and threatened to “blow up and completely obliterate” Iran’s electric generating plants, oil wells and Kharg Island if a deal is not reached shortly. He added that desalination plants were also under consideration.
These are all targets the U.S. deliberately avoided hitting for the duration of the five-week conflict, he said.
The combination of a potential ceasefire with a new government and the most explicit threat to civilian and energy infrastructure yet makes this a two-sided headline that the market will struggle to price cleanly.
One the one hand, talks are taking place with a new regime and “great progress” has been made. On the other, the president just publicly listed every piece of critical infrastructure he’s prepared to destroy if those talks fail while saying such action would “conclude our lovely ‘stay’ in Iran.”
Bitcoin jumped above $67,600 on the news, taking its 24-hour gain to 1.3%. Ether (ETH) outperformed, up 3.1% to $2,070, solana (SOL) rose 1.9% to $84.09 and XRP added 1.0% to $1.35. The weekly picture is still uniformly red — with BTC down 1.3%, XRP 1.2%, SOL 2.2%. Tron continues to outperform, up 1.3% in 24 hours and 5.3% on the week.
The bounce squeezed a lot of shorts on the way up. CoinGlass data shows $9.32 million in short liquidations in the last hour alone against just $207,000 in longs.
Traders took on $340 million in liquidations over a 24-hour window, absorbing the bulk at $242.25 million from the overnight flush before the Trump post landed. The largest single order was a $9.8 million BTCUSD liquidation on Bybit.
Crypto World
Solana price confirms bearish flag pattern as ETFs break 6-week inflow streak, will it crash?
Solana price fell 13% over the past week after confirming a bearish pattern on the charts. Will it experience a steeper decline ahead as institutional investors seem to be backing away from the asset?
Summary
- Solana price dropped over 13% in a week after confirming a bearish flag pattern, signaling potential continuation of the downtrend.
- Institutional outflows from Solana ETFs and derivatives-driven liquidations have added to selling pressure, weakening investor sentiment.
- Technical indicators point to further downside risk toward $67, with a break below $80 likely to accelerate losses.
According to data from crypto.news, Solana (SOL) price fell 13.5% from its weekly high of $92.88 to $80.37 earlier on Monday before settling a little above at $84.07 at the time of writing.
Solana price fell as institutional investors began rotating capital away from the token, likely as they explored other options. Data from SoSoValue shows that spot Solana exchange-traded funds recorded $4.24 million in outflows over the past week, breaking a six-week weekly inflow streak that drew in nearly $127 million from the investment products.
While this recent cooling doesn’t necessarily mean that institutional investors will continue to back off from the asset in the weeks ahead, they have certainly spooked retail investors into a cautious state as they await clearer market signals.
Another major reason that has set back the token is the persistent liquidations across crypto derivatives markets. Over the past 24 hours, over $24 million in positions were liquidated from Solana alone, with the majority coming from long liquidations. As these positions were wiped out, the resulting selling pressure further accelerated the decline.
Meanwhile, the ongoing uncertainty around when the war between the U.S. and Iran would come to an end has also fostered a cautious environment for investors who are rotating to gold and other safe-haven assets that have historically protected capital during geopolitical crises.
On the daily chart, Solana price has confirmed a multi-month bearish flag pattern. Such a pattern is formed when an asset drops sharply downwards, forming a flagpole followed by some consolidation forming the flag part of the pattern.
A break from the lower trendline of the pattern confirms the bearish outlook and has often preceded a significant downward move.
Hence, Solana price is likely to visit its year-to-date low of $67.82 reached on Feb. 6. On the bearish side, if Solana price loses the $80 support level, the selloff could intensify quickly.
Technical indicators seem to support this bearish outlook. Notably, the Aroon Down stood at 92.86% while the Aroon Up was at 0%, a sign that the bears are in total control of the trend.
The Relative Strength Index, which shows the RSI at 44 slowly climbing back toward the neutral threshold, suggests that while the immediate panic has subsided, the overall momentum remains weak.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
Prospects of interest rate rises are no longer just the U.S. story. Traders are now betting the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could tighten too as the resource-scarce nation faces inflation risks from the ongoing Iran war.
Traders see a roughly 69% chance of the BoJ raising its benchmark borrowing cost at the April 28 meeting, according to data tracked by Bloomberg. Action in options tied to U.S. interest rates shows traders expect the Fed to raise borrowing costs in the coming weeks.
BoJ’s policy meeting summary released Monday showed one member calling for a bigger rate hike in response to the conflict in the Middle East and its inflationary impact on Japanese society. Comments also noted that any move would factor in incoming economic data and anecdotal signals from the market.
The Fed’s tightening is a well-known headwind for risk assets, including bitcoin. The Bank of Japan can be just as impactful. Years of ultra-low rates encouraged traders to borrow in yen and invest in higher-yielding markets (the so-called carry trade), keeping borrowing costs suppressed globally and greasing rallies in risk assets.
So, a shift toward tighter policy in Tokyo could reverse these flows, sending ripples across markets and potentially deepening the crypto bear market. The BoJ has already raised its interest rate to 0.75% from -0.1% over the past two years while simultaneously ending its massive asset purchase program. Yet, rates in Japan remain significantly lower than the 3.5% seen in the U.S.
The bank, therefore, has plenty of room to hike if the Iran crisis worsens, potentially driving higher energy prices and imported inflation in Japan and other oil-dependent countries.
Easier said than done
Hiking rates, however, will be a challenging task given Japan’s strained fiscal situation. The country’s debt-to-GDP ratio stands at a staggering 240%, meaning higher rates could sharply increase borrowing costs and strain government finances.
Economists have said that Japan is caught between a rock and a hard place. If it hikes rates and allows government bond yields to rise, it could put Japan’s debt sustainability at risk. If it keeps rates low, the yen will likely depreciate significantly, adding to inflation concerns.
Strains are already evident in the FX market. The Japanese yen continues to weaken and is currently just around 160 per U.S. dollar, its weakest level since mid-2024. The JPY has depreciated by 54% since 2021.
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