Decentralized finance (DeFi) has transformed financial transparency by making vast amounts of blockchain data publicly accessible. However, access does not equal understanding. Without the right analytical approach, even experienced participants can misinterpret signals and make costly decisions. This article explores how to properly read Total Value Locked (TVL), leverage analytics platforms, identify opportunities through on-chain data, and avoid misleading metrics.

1. Understanding TVL (Total Value Locked) Beyond the Surface

Total Value Locked (TVL) is one of the most widely cited metrics in DeFi. It represents the total value of assets deposited in a protocol’s smart contracts. While often used as a proxy for trust and adoption, TVL can be misleading if interpreted naively.

Key considerations:

• Price Sensitivity: TVL fluctuates with token prices. A rise in TVL may reflect asset appreciation rather than new capital inflows.
• Double Counting: Assets can be reused across protocols (e.g., staking LP tokens), inflating TVL figures artificially.
• Capital Efficiency: High TVL does not necessarily indicate efficiency or profitability. Some protocols generate more revenue with lower TVL.
• Liquidity Composition: Understanding whether TVL consists of stablecoins, volatile assets, or incentivized deposits is crucial.

Takeaway: TVL should be contextualized alongside metrics like protocol revenue, user activity, and capital turnover.

2. Leveraging Analytics Platforms

Modern DeFi analytics platforms provide tools to interpret blockchain data effectively. Among the most widely used is Dune Analytics, which allows users to query blockchain data using SQL and visualize it through dashboards.

Popular platforms include:

• Dune Analytics — Custom dashboards, community-driven insights
• DeFiLlama — TVL tracking across chains and protocols
• Nansen — Wallet labeling and smart money tracking
• Glassnode — Advanced metrics for macro-level insights

Best practices:

• Cross-check data across multiple platforms to avoid bias
• Understand the methodology behind each metric
• Customize dashboards to track specific strategies or protocols

Takeaway: Tools are only as powerful as the user’s ability to interpret them critically.

3. Finding Opportunities Using On-Chain Data

On-chain data offers a transparent view into market behavior, enabling users to identify emerging opportunities before they become widely known.

Key strategies:

• Wallet Tracking: Monitor “smart money” wallets to identify early positioning in new protocols
• Liquidity Flows: Track capital entering or exiting protocols to gauge momentum
• Token Distribution: Analyze holder concentration to assess risk and decentralization
• Yield Analysis: Compare real yield (fees generated) versus incentivized yield (token rewards)

For example, a sudden increase in liquidity combined with rising user activity—but without excessive token incentives—may indicate organic growth.

Takeaway: Early signals often appear in behavior, not headlines.

4. Avoiding Misleading Metrics

Not all metrics are created equal. Some are intentionally designed to attract users rather than inform them.

Common pitfalls:

• Inflated APYs: High yields often rely on unsustainable token emissions
• Vanity Metrics: User counts or transaction volumes can be inflated through bots or incentives
• Short-Term Spikes: Temporary liquidity mining campaigns can distort long-term viability
• Ignoring Risk Factors: Metrics rarely account for smart contract risk, governance issues, or market volatility

A protocol offering 1,000% APY may appear attractive, but if the reward token rapidly depreciates, real returns may be negative.

Takeaway: Always distinguish between nominal and real value.

Conclusion

DeFi analytics is not about memorizing metrics—it is about understanding context, questioning assumptions, and synthesizing multiple data points into a coherent view. Tools like Dune Analytics and Nansen empower users to navigate this landscape, but critical thinking remains the most valuable asset.

In a market driven by transparency yet clouded by noise, those who can interpret on-chain data effectively gain a decisive edge.

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Already noted for embracing digital assets, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is also leaning into artificial intelligence to pick up the slack after slashing more than a fifth of its workforce, Chairman Mike Selig said in an interview with CoinDesk.

Selig, who is set to appear at Consensus 2026 in Miami next week, said AI and automation can make up for the personnel cuts under President Donald Trump’s campaign to reduce federal staffing. He said the agency — on its way to become a leading U.S. regulator for the crypto sector — is pushing toward using the technology to review registration applications and even help in market surveillance.

The CFTC registration process currently relies on the manual submission of documents, Selig said, so “we’re building out systems to automate that, to make it much more efficient.” “AI tools can be used to review the applications, flag certain things for the staff, make their jobs easier, make it much faster for them to provide feedback and also reject certain things that aren’t materially complete,” he said. “We can see something come in with blank space or inadequate descriptions or things that are clearly wrong, picked up by AI, and it can reject those or put them at the back of the line.”

Selig said his staff is currently being trained on using Microsoft’s Copilot for the first time, but the agency is also building some “in-house” tools for “reviewing swap data, reviewing for market-surveillance purposes; We have tools now that can help us reach conclusions about certain trades and all of that. So we’re embracing technology.”

The chairman has been at the helm of the U.S. derivatives regulator for four months, and it has leapt into the fray on emerging technologies, including the oversight of both crypto and the prediction markets.

Crypto taxonomy

Even in the absence — so far — of a new crypto law from Congress, one of Selig’s major initiatives has been embracing oversight of the industry. To that end, he said the most important action taken to-date was the joint guidance alongside the Securities and Exchange Commission to set out a “taxonomy” for digital assets — a system of definitions for how each subset of crypto will fit into the range of regulatory jurisdictions.

“That is a massive development that is going to allow market participants, software developers and consumers to engage with crypto systems and crypto assets with confidence that they’re not tripping into the securities laws,” he said, though the interpretive guidance doesn’t yet carry to full force of permanent policy. “Now we have clarity,” he said. “We understand what our responsibility is at the CFTC, and we will be taking action to police fraud, manipulation, insider trading in crypto markets, and we think that’s going to have a huge impact, in addition to the clarity for consumers and users of the asset class.”

Prediction markets

But his prediction-markets foray, involving the businesses such as Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com, Coinbase and Gemini, has been the most immediately contentious. Selig’s unbending stance that the CFTC is the only relevant regulator of these firms has put him at odds with the states who have challenged the companies for running afoul of state gaming laws — especially in the sports betting realm. He’s sued several states, most recently including New York, defending the agency’s “exclusive jurisdiction.”

Late last week, the CFTC joined in a Department of Justice case against a U.S. Army Special Forces soldier who is accused of placing prediction-market bets on the military action in Venezuela that he took part in. Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a master sergeant among the Army’s vaunted green berets, was arrested and charged with using confidential government information and fraud, plus the CFTC’s own complaint against him for insider trading.

“We are on the case and continue to watch for news,” Selig said of his agency’s enforcement stance on prediction markets. “We will be taking action against bad actors in our markets, and we’re taking this very seriously. It’s not lip service, and market participants should be on notice.”

Read More: U.S. CFTC’s Selig says AI has helped make up for staffing cuts at key crypto watchdog

Key Takeaways

• Redburn Atlantic raised Snap to “Buy” with a $10 price target, up from $5
• Snapchat+ subscription revenue projected to surge to $1.75B within three years
• Company expected to achieve GAAP profitability by 2026
• AI-powered efficiency initiatives could drive gross margins beyond 60%
• Despite gains, SNAP remains down approximately 25% in 2025 and 41% off its 52-week peak

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Shares of Snap (SNAP) rallied approximately 7-8% during Monday’s session following a significant upgrade from Redburn Atlantic, which elevated the social media company to “Buy” while doubling its price objective from $5 to $10.

Snap Inc., SNAP

The new $10 price objective suggests potential gains of approximately 65% from SNAP’s pre-upgrade trading levels.

This wasn’t merely a ratings change — Redburn delivered a comprehensive investment thesis explaining why the firm believes Snap is approaching a pivotal inflection point.

Redburn’s bullish stance hinges on Snap’s strategic pivot beyond pure reliance on advertising revenue. Though digital advertising remains the primary income source, the firm highlighted the rapidly expanding Snapchat+ premium subscription offering as the compelling catalyst.

Analysts project subscription income will more than double across the coming three-year period, climbing from approximately $700 million to $1.75 billion. This trajectory would elevate subscriptions from 13% of total revenue to 22%.

This type of stable, recurring income stream represents a fundamental transformation for a business historically vulnerable to the volatile swings of digital advertising markets.

The Path to Consistent Profits

Redburn’s analysis also emphasized operational discipline as a critical component of the investment case. The company reportedly achieved GAAP breakeven status last year — when excluding its experimental Spectacles hardware division — and analysts forecast Snap will deliver “meaningful profitability” by 2026.

Reaching this benchmark would mark a significant achievement for a company that has consistently struggled with profitability since its 2017 public debut.

Substantial workforce reductions combined with a strategic transition toward AI-driven operations are anticipated to elevate gross profit margins above the 60% threshold. Redburn characterized this evolution as Snap finally maturing into a streamlined, profit-oriented enterprise.

Monday’s price action brought SNAP shares into contact with its 100-day moving average. Market watchers noted that a convincing breakout above the $6.20 level would indicate a fundamental shift in long-term momentum favoring bulls.

The stock also temporarily surpassed important technical resistance points, capturing attention from momentum traders monitoring for potential trend reversals.

Current Market Position

Despite Monday’s impressive gains, Snap shares remain underwater by roughly 25% for the year and continue trading approximately 41% beneath the 52-week high of $10.35 reached in July 2025.

An investor who allocated $1,000 to SNAP five years ago would currently hold a position worth around $100.

The broader Wall Street analyst consensus remains more cautious than Redburn’s optimistic outlook. The overall rating stands at “Hold,” though the consensus price target of approximately $7.99 still indicates over 30% potential appreciation from present levels.

SNAP has experienced single-day moves exceeding 5% on 26 different occasions over the trailing twelve months, underscoring the stock’s characteristic volatility.

The Redburn upgrade represents the most aggressively bullish perspective on the stock in recent quarters, though this optimistic viewpoint has not yet gained widespread acceptance among Wall Street research firms.

Chainlink (LINK) recorded its highest single-day exchange outflow since December 2, 2025, according to data shared by Santiment. 

The data showed that 970,430 LINK left known exchanges on April 27, 2026. The withdrawn tokens were worth about $8.95 million based on LINK’s average price at the time. Large exchange outflows often show that traders are moving assets into private wallets.

The withdrawals came as the wider crypto market slowed after a recent rally. Chainlink still saw strong activity, as traders appeared to use the price pullback to increase their holdings.

Exchange outflows can reduce the amount of LINK available for trading on platforms such as Binance. If demand remains steady, lower exchange supply may support price stability.

LINK price slips despite rising demand

LINK traded at $9.23 at the time of writing, according to CoinGecko data. The token was down 0.98% over the past 24 hours, showing weak short-term momentum.

The decline came after a recent price recovery. However, the latest withdrawal data showed that some investors continued to accumulate LINK despite the weaker price action.

BridgeTower uses Chainlink stack for tokenized securities

Elsewhere, BridgeTower Capital has deployed Chainlink’s full infrastructure stack to support tokenized securities tied to the DOM X Arizona Copper-Gold Project. The project is linked to an $11 billion U.S. natural resource initiative.

The companies described the deployment as “live production infrastructure” rather than a pilot. The move adds another real-world asset use case for Chainlink as institutional interest in tokenization grows.

Ondo Finance has teamed up with financial technology giant Broadridge to give holders of tokenized stocks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) the ability to participate in proxy voting.

Broadridge has built a Web3-enabled relay system where tokenholders connect their crypto wallet to Broadridge’s ProxyVote platform, submit their voting preference, and Ondo’s issuer then votes the real shares accordingly, with the entire process recorded onchain for transparency, according to a Tuesday announcement.

“By working with Broadridge, we are enabling holders of our on-chain tokenized stocks to access governance and voting capabilities, with all the additional benefits on-chain tokens provide,” Matthieu de Vergnes, global head of institutional at Ondo Finance, said.

Proxy voting is when a shareholder authorizes someone else to vote on corporate matters on their behalf. It has long been a standard feature of traditional equity ownership, but tokenized stocks have largely lacked it. The Broadridge integration addresses this gap, letting investors sign in via their crypto wallets, confirm their holdings and submit votes.

Related: SEC ‘on the cusp’ of onchain tokenized securities exemption: Atkins

Tokenized stocks hit $1.15 billion

Tokenized stocks have surged to $1.15 billion in distributed value, up 25.46% over the past 30 days, according to data from RWA.xyz. Monthly transfer volume stands at $2.27 billion, with over 217,000 holders, up 9.26% in the last month alone.

Tesla, NVIDIA, and S&P 500-linked products are among the most prominent assets by value, alongside Circle Internet and Strategy-linked tokens.

Tokenized stocks continue to grow. Source: RWA.xyz

Ondo, which claims roughly 70% of the tokenized stock market with over $700 million in total value locked, offers its products across Solana (SOL), Ethereum (ETH) and BNB Chain (BNB). The tokens are backed by the corresponding stocks or ETFs.

Related: UK plans payments rule changes for stablecoins, tokenized deposits

Franklin Templeton, Ondo bring tokenized ETFs to crypto wallets

Last month, Franklin Templeton and Ondo Finance announced a partnership to bring tokenized versions of Franklin’s ETFs onchain, giving investors access through crypto wallets rather than traditional brokerage accounts. The initial offering covers five funds spanning US equities, fixed income, and gold, available across Europe, Asia-Pacific, the Middle East and Latin America, with US access pending regulatory clarity.

Meanwhile, Binance has listed 10 tokenized assets from Ondo Global Markets on its Binance Alpha platform, including tokens tracking Apple, Nvidia and the Invesco QQQ ETF.

Magazine: Should users be allowed to bet on war and death in prediction markets?

Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently.

Bitcoin (BTC) was worth $110,000 at last year’s big Las Vegas conference but by the time Bitcoin 2026 kicked off this week, it had fallen to less than $79,000.

Unfortunately, that was just the start of the disappointment.

The conference opened yesterday at The Venetian in Las Vegas with two senior US officials addressing a mostly empty main stage.

During the event, security also escorted the wife of imprisoned Samourai developer Keonne Rodriguez from one of the areas, and a member of Congress claimed to have started mining BTC in 2006, which isn’t possible.

The day’s most-hyped event, a main stage panel entitled “Code is Free Speech,” billed FBI Director Kash Patel and Acting US Attorney General Todd Blanche as speakers.

However, neither physically attended the event.

For a session pitched as a federal olive branch to the crypto industry, the nearly empty event landed as little more than an awkward gesture.

Attendees also noticed the stock of the conference organizer’s public company, Nakamoto, 99% below its price during last year’s conference.

And all this before the event’s second day had even started.

Security incident with a Samourai fan favorite

Broadly supported by the Bitcoin community, Lauren Rodriguez is the wife of Keonne Rodriguez. Her husband is serving a five-year prison sentence for pleading guilty of conspiracy to operate an unlicensed money‑transmitting business involving Samourai Wallet. 

According to her characterization of events, security escorted her out of the conference “for holding #FreeSamourai signs,” tagging conference founder David Bailey. 

Support for Samourai is widespread in the Bitcoin and wider crypto communities. Indeed, the conference organizer had scheduled Rodriguez to appear that same afternoon on a main stage panel entitled “The Wives & Mothers Carrying the Fight Against Injustice.”

Bailey’s staff later remedied the situation, with Lauren thanking organizers for “resolving the issue with security.” However, the initial media damage was immediate, with 140,000 views on X of her initial complaint.

‘No longer prosecute Bitcoin developers’

Back at the main stage, within minutes of a cagey and heavily qualified statement by Acting US Attorney General Blanche, Pete Rizzo breathlessly broadcasted to his followers that the “US Attorney General just said they will no longer prosecute #bitcoin developers… Samourai devs about to be free.”

That was an incredible characterization. In fact, Blanche had said nothing about freeing Samourai developers, and merely promised a heavily qualified aspiration, vaguely hoping that his department would not generally intend to prosecute software developers if “you are not helping and knowing the third party is using what you developed to commit crimes.”

Excluded from the celebratory claims on social media about Blanche’s non-existent promise to stop prosecuting Bitcoin developers, Blanche continued, “Obviously, facts matter, because if you’re laundering money or violating sanctions, the mere fact that you happen to be a coder doesn’t excuse you from criminal liability.

“So there’s a distinction there, and that’s why the facts of a particular case are very important.”

Read more: Samourai developers plead guilty

Bitcoin 2026 speaker “mining bitcoin 20 years ago”

On the same main stage, Iowa Republican Congressman Zach Nunn claimed to the audience that he “started mining BTC 20 years ago.”

Unfortunately for Nunn, Satoshi Nakamoto published the Bitcoin whitepaper in October 2008. Twenty years ago is 2006.

Lastly, the disappointing stock price of Nakamoto (NAKA), the BTC treasury stock founded by conference organizer Bailey, loomed heavily over the event.

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During last year’s conference, NAKA traded over $29 per share. It closed for trading yesterday below $0.20.

Read more: Bitcoin treasury Nakamoto down 98% — still pays David Bailey lavishly

A venue far from capacity, main stage speakers dialing it in, an ejected Samourai protester, and a congressman magically mining BTC years before the network launched. 

All of it fit inside just the first day of Bitcoin 2026. Two more days to go.

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Block (XYZ) said it added 114 bitcoin BTC$76,281.03 in the first quarter, bringing its corporate holdings to near 9,000 BTC, worth about $691 million, according to a public proof-of-reserves dashboard. It held 8,883 BTC at the end of last year.

Adding in the 19,357 BTC held on behalf of customers, the payments company co-founded by former Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey said it is responsible for a total of 28,355 BTC, worth about $2.2 billion at current prices.

The owner of Square and Cash App said the dashboard is a point-in-time snapshot and not a full audit of solvency, though it plans to publish regular third-party reports.

The snapshot reflects balances as of March 2026 and is backed by third-party audit checks and cryptographic signatures that users can verify independently.

The company published wallet addresses and signed messages onchain, allowing anyone to confirm ownership without access to private keys.

Key Takeaways

• Shares of NVS declined approximately 2% during pre-market trading following a first quarter earnings disappointment
• Revenue totaled $13.11B, falling short of the $13.40B Wall Street projection, representing a 1% year-over-year decline
• Sales of Entresto plummeted 42% to $1.31B following U.S. patent loss and entry of generic alternatives
• Core earnings per share decreased to $1.99 from $2.28; core operating profit contracted 12% to $4.9B
• CEO Vas Narasimhan cautioned that the U.S. “most favored nation” pricing mechanism could restrict patient access to innovative therapies in Europe and Japan over the next 18 months

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Novartis delivered a challenging opening quarter for 2026, with first quarter performance falling below expectations on both revenue and profitability metrics as generic erosion proved more severe than anticipated by analysts.

Revenue registered at $13.11 billion, missing the $13.40 billion Street estimate. Core operating profit contracted 12% to $4.9 billion, likewise trailing the approximately $5.1 billion consensus compiled by Visible Alpha.

The primary driver of underperformance was Entresto, the pharmaceutical giant’s leading cardiovascular medication. Revenue from the therapy collapsed 42% to $1.31 billion following the expiration of its U.S. patent protection and subsequent generic market entry. Wall Street had projected $1.37 billion.

Novartis AG, NVS

Entresto accounted for 14% of consolidated revenue in the prior year, representing one of the most significant patent expirations in the company’s recent history. CEO Vas Narasimhan has characterized it as the most substantial patent cliff Novartis has encountered in twenty years.

The challenges extend beyond Entresto. Generic competition is also impacting Promacta, used for blood disorders, and Tasigna, a leukemia medication, compounding headwinds to revenue expansion.

Core earnings per share declined to $1.99, compared with $2.28 in the year-ago period. Operating income contracted 9% while net income fell 13%, driven by both the revenue shortfall and increased research and development expenditures.

CFO Mukul Mehta informed reporters that the performance aligned with internal projections. He indicated the company anticipates “growth to return back to our P&L in the second half of this year.”

Novartis maintained its full-year outlook, citing a robust pipeline and continuing product launches. The organization anticipates approximately $4 billion in revenue erosion this year stemming from generic competition affecting Entresto, Promacta, and Tasigna.

CEO Raises Concerns Over MFN Pricing Framework

Beyond the quarterly results, CEO Narasimhan utilized the earnings release to voice apprehensions regarding U.S. pharmaceutical pricing policy, particularly the “most favored nation” mechanism.

The MFN framework links U.S. pharmaceutical prices to those paid in other developed nations. Narasimhan cautioned that the ramifications would extend internationally, stating “the reality of MFN is going to set in in the next 18 months.”

He indicated Novartis is encouraging Europe and Japan to reconsider their pricing and reimbursement frameworks for innovative medications. Absent reforms, he cautioned that “novel medicines might see delayed entry” and patient access could deteriorate.

Currently, the immediate impact on Novartis remains contained. MFN presently affects approximately 5% to 10% of Medicaid-associated revenue. However, Narasimhan views the policy as permanent. “I don’t see it disappearing in the U.S.,” he stated.

His remarks parallel those from competitors. Roche and AstraZeneca have similarly identified Europe’s reimbursement structure as an escalating threat to future therapeutic availability.

Analyst Community Maintains Cautious Optimism

Notwithstanding the earnings miss, the investment community has not abandoned confidence in the shares. Novartis maintains a Moderate Buy consensus rating derived from six analyst opinions.

The consensus price target stands at $169.86, suggesting approximately 17% appreciation potential from present trading levels.

Entresto will face patent expirations in Europe beginning in November, which will introduce additional revenue pressure during the latter half of the year.