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Bitcoin’s brutal crash just became a nightmare for the plan to put crypto in Americans’ retirement

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Bitcoin’s brutal crash just became a nightmare for the plan to put crypto in Americans' retirement

Bitcoin’s 50% plunge from its October peak has done more than just erase $2 trillion in market value — it has reignited a fierce debate over the fiduciary math of the American retirement system.

As investors scramble to parse the drivers of the latest crash, industry observers are asking if volatile digital assets have any business being in a $12.5 trillion 401(k) market designed for stability.

“If investors want to speculate on crypto, they are welcome to do so on their own. 401ks exist to help people save for a secure retirement, not gamble on speculative assets with no intrinsic value,” said Lee Reiners, a lecturing fellow at the Duke Financial Economics Center and a co-host of the Coffee & Crypto podcast.

U.S. President Donald Trump issued an executive order in August that allowed 401(k) and other defined-contribution retirement plans access to alternative assets, including digital assets. Even Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) chair Paul Atkins said last week, just on the eve of the latest brutal crypto selloff, that “the time is right” to open up the retirement market to crypto.

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But the recent rout in crypto might just turn retirement fund managers away from plans to add crypto to 401(k)s.

Reiners said that several large crypto companies, such as Coinbase (COIN), are already included in major equity indices, which means many 401(k) plans already have indirect exposure to crypto, and that should be enough.

“Unless Congress changes the law, plan sponsors are unlikely to include crypto, or ETFs, as plan options because they don’t want to be sued by their employees. For any employers that were considering it, I’m sure recent events have them reconsidering,” Reiners said.

The problem with putting people’s life savings into crypto is that the industry is relatively young and extremely volatile, and pension funds are for stable growth.

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Buying and holding can work for assets like the S&P 500, which sees large volatility mostly during Black Swan events, such as the 2008 financial crisis or COVID-19 uncertainties. However, given the size of traditional markets, the government often steps in to stop the bleeding, and numerous regulatory frameworks exist to protect people’s investments.

But for crypto, much of its activity is just speculation, and that means prices can see extreme swings over a weekend or a week, which can quickly decimate billions in value with no regulatory oversight over market moves. This makes it even more nerve-wracking for investors to put their life savings into it.

Didn’t ‘get out quickly’

To put the uncertainty in perspective, many firms were likely blindsided by the sudden crash in bitcoin and crypto over the last few days.

In fact, the recent brutal selloff was so violent and sudden that BlockTrust IRA, an AI-powered retirement platform that has added $70 million in IRA funds in the past 12 months, was caught in the bloodbath.

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“Sometimes we look at things that we say, ‘you know what, we should get out,’ and sometimes we don’t. And last week, we did not get out as quickly because a lot of the underlying fundamental data we’re looking at is still very strong,” Chief Technical Officer Maximilian Pace said in an interview with CoinDesk.

However, concerning the sudden selloff, Pace pointed to the firm’s “broad sense of analytics,” which operates effectively over longer timelines than short-term trading. That strategy helped it outperform in 2025, and the firm added that it is “not necessarily wavered by volatility.” The AI trading firm’s Animus Fund outperformed bitcoin throughout 2025 and was up 27% from January to December 2025, while the bitcoin buy-and-hold strategy was down 6% to 13% over the same period, the firm said in a press release.

In Pace’s view, zooming out and considering crypto investments over a five- to 10-year time horizon is the right way to think about 401(k) plans.

“You would be better thinking like a venture capitalist rather than like a day trader,” Pace said. “There are ways of de-risking the investment, either from a time perspective or from a strategy perspective, that make it more attractive or more acceptable for things like 401(k) programs. But like anything, there’s risk.”

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The future of pensions

Perhaps there’s a need to zoom out further and think about the actual blockchain technology for retirement investment management than just putting money into tokens.

Robert Crossley, Franklin Templeton’s global head of industry and digital advisory services, is thinking exactly that. The retirement industry, which he says is siloed, slow-moving and over-regulated, could be revolutionized by onchain wallets that hold tokenized assets.

And by doing so, an individual’s digital wealth will be much more aligned with the rest of their lives, Crossley said.

“Whether you are a saver, an investor, a spender, you have all of these different financial activities which are currently serviced very differently by different providers in your life,” Crossley said in an interview.

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If regulations come into play that don’t prohibit innovations, it is very likely that blockchain technology can eliminate such fragmentation of intermediaries. It’s possible that industry could see a supply of wallets that “unlock the possibility of programmable assets and securities and the ability to see all of your assets in one place and control them directly, rather than being intermediated,” he said.

“When something becomes tokenized, it becomes software. That software can be an asset, but it also could be a benefit, it also could be a liability. It could be a whole 401(k). It could be your whole DC [defined contribution] plan,” Crossley said.

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Prediction Markets Hit New Milestones in March Despite Growing Regulatory Scrutiny

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Prediction market transactions surpassed 192 million in March 2026. This represents an all-time record as volume and user growth continued to accelerate year over year.

The figures, tracked by Dune, reflect a sector that has shifted from a niche use case into a multibillion-dollar financial market.

Prediction Market Monthly Transactions
Prediction Market Monthly Transactions. Source: Dune

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The number of monthly users grew to a record high of 865,411, a roughly 118% increase from 396,642 in March 2025. 

Monthly notional trading volume for prediction markets reached roughly $23.89 billion so far in March, a roughly 1,107% year-over-year increase. Nonetheless, it remains around 10.7% below January’s all-time high of $26.7 billion.

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BeInCrypto’s exclusive analysis found that sports, crypto, and politics lead weekly volume on Polymarket. On Kalshi, the exotics category overtook politics in late February to secure a position among the top three categories by weekly volume according to Dune data.

The behavioral data also suggests a structural shift. On Polymarket, over 57% of users trade less than $100 per position. 

The average active participant executes roughly 25 trades per day. That frequency mirrors patterns seen in retail stock trading rather than traditional betting.

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Despite the growth, prediction markets face increasing regulatory scrutiny. Lawmakers have introduced multiple bills in March alone, ranging from curbing insider trading to banning war-related contracts.

The post Prediction Markets Hit New Milestones in March Despite Growing Regulatory Scrutiny appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Lido DAO Plans $20M LDO Buyback to Stabilize After Historic Decline

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Crypto Breaking News

Lido DAO’s decentralized autonomous organization is weighing a one-off $20 million buyback of its governance token, LDO, in a bid to address a pronounced price dislocation relative to Ether. The plan would swap 10,000 stETH tokens from the treasury for LDO, with proponents arguing that the governance token is undervalued given the protocol’s fundamentals.

The proposal, submitted on Friday, outlines a staged approach: the treasury would acquire up to 10,000 stETH in smaller batches of 1,000 and swap each batch for LDO. Lido argues this move could restore alignment between LDO’s market price and the underlying health of the protocol, a gap it says has widened to historically large levels. As part of the process, each batch would require tokenholder approval, and results would be reported before the next tranche proceeds.

“This is not a routine fluctuation. It represents one of the most significant dislocations between LDO’s market price and its underlying protocol fundamentals in the token’s history.”

The time to act comes as LDO sits at an extended discount to Ether. Lido DAO notes LDO trades at about 0.00016 ETH, roughly 63% below its two-year median. At the same time, Lido remains the dominant force in Ethereum’s liquid staking market, holding about 23.2% of staked Ether, according to Dune Analytics data. That leadership has not come without controversy; previous assessments flagged the potential centralization risks tied to a single protocol’s dominance in securing a large share of the network’s staking.

Price and market metrics underscore the scale of the challenge. LDO is currently trading around $0.30, down about 95.9% from its peak near $7.30 in August 2021. Its market capitalization sits near $255 million, placing it around the 141st-largest token by value. The plan’s proponents argue that the proposed buyback could shore up sentiment by demonstrating active governance-driven capital allocation tied to the protocol’s real-world performance.

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Key takeaways

  • The Lido DAO proposal would execute a one-off $20 million buyback by swapping up to 10,000 stETH from the treasury for LDO, in batches of 1,000 stETH each, using limit orders or dollar-cost averaging to manage volatility.
  • Approval for each batch would be required from tokenholders, and results would be disclosed after every tranche before proceeding.
  • LDO trades at a steep discount to ETH (approximately 0.00016 ETH per LDO, about 63% below the two-year median), despite Lido’s leadership in Ethereum’s liquid staking sector.
  • Lido’s dominance has been cited in the past as a potential centralization risk for the network, though the current governance move focuses on price alignment and treasury management.
  • Revenue and fee dynamics in 2025 show Lido’s take rate rising to 6.1% even as staking fees declined, with total staking revenue dipping amid a broader market retrenchment.

Mechanics, governance, and investor considerations

The proposed buyback plan hinges on a staged governance process. If approved, Lido would execute batches of 1,000 stETH each, swapping them for LDO until the 10,000-stETH target is reached. The strategy emphasizes price discipline: Lido intends to use limit orders or a dollar-cost averaging approach to smooth entry and avoid abrupt price moves. Each batch would require a new round of tokenholder approvals, and the DAO would report results after every step to maintain transparency and accountability.

The broader context includes a look at Lido’s earnings trajectory. In 2025, Lido’s revenue declined by about 23% to roughly $40.5 million, driven largely by a drop in staking fees to about $37.4 million. Despite the revenue dip, the protocol’s take rate—defined as the percentage of staked ETH rewards retained as fees—improved from about 5% to just over 6% in 2025. Lido argues that the core fundamentals remain robust even amid a wider market pullback and a 13% cost improvement in 2025 versus 2024.

The idea of a buyback is not entirely new within Lido’s ecosystem. In November, a member proposed an automated buyback mechanism to support LDO’s price, but that proposal has not been implemented. The current plan reframes the concept as a one-off, governance-driven initiative tied directly to the treasury’s assets and the DAO’s long-term interests.

Implications for holders and the broader ecosystem

If the proposal advances, the immediate effect could be a temporary lift in LDO’s trading dynamics, especially if the market interprets the buyback as a signal that the DAO is willing to put treasury-backed resources toward balancing token price with protocol fundamentals. For investors, the move highlights a visible attempt to align incentives between token economics and the platform’s operational strength, particularly given Lido’s entrenched position in Ethereum staking and its influence on validator economics.

However, the plan also introduces governance risk and execution risk. The need for multiple rounds of tokenholder approvals means outcomes will be contingent on community sentiment and turnout. Moreover, the market’s reaction will hinge on how the buyback intersects with broader SEC-like scrutiny, market liquidity conditions, and the pace at which LDO could absorb new supply without dampening demand for the token’s governance role.

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Looking ahead, observers will be watching whether the DAO proceeds with the proposed schedule, how each batch performs relative to market conditions, and whether this approach invites further debates about token economics, centralization concerns, and the resilience of Ethereum’s staking architecture as it evolves post-merge.

Readers should monitor Lido DAO’s governance votes and the market’s reaction to any announced results from each tranche, as these steps will illuminate how the community weighs treasury-backed interventions against the need to maintain decentralization and protocol integrity in a challenging macro environment.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Bitcoin recovers to $67,400 after dipping below $65,200 as Houthis enter Iran war

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Bitcoin recovers to $67,400 after dipping below $65,200 as Houthis enter Iran war

The war just got bigger. Bitcoin briefly got smaller.

Bitcoin dipped to $65,112 early Monday morning, its lowest level since the February crash, before recovering to $67,402 as Asian markets opened.

The 24-hour range of $65,112 to $67,389 reflects a market that sold hard on overnight escalation headlines and found buyers near $65,000, a level that hasn’t been tested since the war’s opening weekend five weeks ago.

Ethereum recovered 2% to $2,044, Solana gained 0.9% to $83.48, and XRP added 1.4% to $1.35. The 24-hour green across the board masks a rougher weekly picture though. BTC is still down 1% on the week, ETH 0.9%, XRP 1.9%, and SOL 3.7%. Tron is the one name sitting in green, up 2.6% in a day and 4.6% on the week, quietly outperforming the entire majors complex.

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The escalation this time came from multiple directions simultaneously. Iran-backed Houthi forces entered the conflict, opening a new front beyond the direct U.S.-Israel-Iran theater. Additional U.S. troops arrived in the Middle East, fanning fears of a ground operation.

The Wall Street Journal reported Trump is weighing a military operation to extract uranium from Iran, though no decision has been made. And Iran attacked two aluminum production sites in the region, sending the metal up as much as 6% and extending the war’s economic damage beyond oil and into industrial commodities.

Brent crude rose 2.5% to around $115 a barrel, now up roughly 90% year-to-date. Asian equities fell sharply, with South Korea’s benchmark down 3.2% on a technology stock selloff and Japan’s Nikkei dropping 3.4%. S&P 500 futures pared losses and were trading roughly flat, suggesting some stabilization after the initial reaction.

The $65,112 low matters technically. That level is within range of the $64,000 low from Feb. 28, the day the war started. Bitcoin has spent five weeks building a pattern of higher lows on each escalation, from $64,000 to $66,000 to $68,000 to $69,400 to $70,596.

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Monday’s dip below $66,000 is the first time in weeks the floor has moved lower rather than higher. Whether it recovers and re-establishes the uptrend or marks the beginning of a break below the range that has held since the war began is the question for the rest of the day.

Meanwhile, oil at $115 and aluminum spiking on direct attacks on production facilities means the inflationary impact is broadening beyond energy into industrial supply chains. That makes the Fed’s position even harder and the rate cut timeline even more distant.

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Polymarket Trader Profits $67K on UFC Fight Mix-Up

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Polymarket Trader Profits $67K on UFC Fight Mix-Up

A Polymarket trader turned $676 into $67,608 on Saturday by capitalizing on a rare mistake during a UFC heavyweight bout, where the wrong fighter was initially announced as the winner. 

The trader, known as LlamaEnjoyer on Polymarket and Verrissimus on X, watched the live fight between Tyrell Fortune and Marcin Tybura and suspected that a mistake may have been made when UFC presenter Bruce Buffer announced Tybura as the winner.

During that time, Polymarket shares for Fortune fell to one cent, and LlamaEnjoyer was able to place the $676 bet moments before Buffer corrected himself and declared Fortune the winner. 

LlamaEnjoyer profited roughly $67,000 from the UFC’s brief blunder, allowing him to capture a near 100x return.

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Receipt of the LlamaEnjoyer’s win on Polymarket. Source: Polymarket

The incident shows the speed at which odds on prediction markets can whipsaw during live events. 

Related: NYSE parent ICE completes new $600M investment in Polymarket

LlamaEnjoyer almost lost $100,000 initially

Speaking about the incident, the Polymarket trader said they almost put $100,000 on Tybura at 99 cents, presumably once the initial decision was made before realizing that something “was off.”

“Cancelled my order, scooped up 1c shares instead. the UFC corrected the winner seconds later. easiest 100x ever.”