While most of the discourse ahead of the highly anticipated UFC 328 main event has revolved around the animosity between Khamzat Chimaev and Sean Strickland, it ultimately shouldn’t be much of a factor once the cage door locks on Saturday night in New Jersey’s Prudential Center.
Unless Chimaev completely abandons his typical wrestling-first game plan, the undefeated middleweight champion’s path to success against Strickland is a clear one.
Chimaev, who’s also currently the No. 3-ranked pound-for-pound talent on the UFC roster, is regarded as the most dominant grappler in mixed martial arts. His first title defence may simply come down to whether he can put Strickland in unfamiliar territory.
Strickland, the former champion and brash 35-year-old from California, is usually able to prevent his opponents from deciding where the fight will take place.
His above-average 76 per cent takedown defence has been tested against many of the division’s best fighters, but Chimaev is an entirely different beast when it comes to the grappling aspects of the sport.
Chimaev landed his first of 12 total takedowns on Dricus Du Plessis within 10 seconds of the first round starting last summer at UFC 319 en route to winning the UFC middleweight title. He controlled Du Plessis for 21:40 out of 25 total minutes and landed more than 500 total strikes — albeit nearly all were pitter-patter shots and only 37 were registered as significant strikes.
Strickland has not shied away from being critical of Chimaev’s character and controversial political connections, so perhaps Chimaev will put more force behind any potential ground-and-pound strikes he throws at Strickland.
In the past 10 years, only two fighters have been able to land more than one takedown on Strickland. One was former welterweight champion Kamaru Usman when he won a three-round decision over Strickland in 2017, and the other was when Strickland lost the title to Du Plessis at UFC 297 in early 2024.
Strickland was taken to the mat six times by Du Plessis in that fight, but was only controlled on the ground for 2:08 out of 25 minutes. He was consistently able to get back to his feet but those takedowns were ultimately the difference in a close split decision and he lost the title.
The consensus opinion is that it’s inevitable Chimaev will take Strickland down and it’s just a matter of if he can find a submission, finish with ground strikes, or do to Strickland what he did to Du Plessis.
If Strickland can manage to work back up from underneath Chimaev, it’ll be a massive accomplishment and his primary key to victory.
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Khamzat Chimaev puts his middleweight title on the line against former champion Sean Strickland. Watch UFC 328 on Saturday, May 9 with prelim coverage beginning 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT, and pay-per-view main card starting at 9 p.m. ET / 6 p.m. PT.
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Strickland told reporters earlier this week during a media scrum that he brought out former Bellator MMA middleweight champion Johnny Eblen to help him prepare for Chimaev’s wrestling-based style.
“My growth as a fighter comes from a love of the sport,” Strickland said of his improvements over the years.
If he can stay on his feet long enough to find a home for his accurate and bothersome jab, maybe then he’ll be able to generate some momentum. Strickland’s cardio is proven, which could be an advantage, since Chimaev has slowed down in a couple of his fights that made it out of the first round.
Chimaev is 15-0 in MMA and 9-0 in the UFC coming off consecutive wins over past champions Usman, Du Plessis and a jaw-crushing submission of Robert Whittaker.
The 32-year-old was born and raised in Chechnya, Russia, began his MMA career while living in Sweden, and now competes under the flag of the United Arab Emirates. He has fans from all around the world, including in the New Jersey area, so even though Strickland is an American fighting in the United States, the fans in attendance might be somewhat split come fight night.
Strickland is coming off a terrific performance against Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez less than 80 days ago. Hernandez is also a relentless wrestler and Strickland was able to pass that test. In fairness, though, Hernandez does not have the same level of physical strength as Chimaev and Hernandez only attempted one takedown against Strickland before abandoning that game plan.
Strickland would be wise to assume Chimaev will be far more aggressive pursuing takedowns and submissions than Hernandez.
The high-volume, defensively sound striker has landed more than 100 significant strikes in 10 of his 14 appearances since 2020.
Chimaev, on the other hand, is notoriously difficult to hit, though, since most of his fights consist of him controlling and dominating his opponents. Chimaev has only absorbed 1.04 significant strikes per 15 minutes during middleweight competition in the UFC, which is the lowest average of all active 185-pounders. He also ranks first in the division in both control time percentage and top position percentage.
Oddsmakers have Chimaev listed as roughly a six-to-one betting favourite over Strickland ahead of UFC 328. Strickland hasn’t been this wide an underdog since he upset Israel Adesanya to initially win the title in 2023.
UFC 328 also features a men’s flyweight title fight in the co-main event when Joshua Van attempts to defend his title against Tatsuro Taira.
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