Indian equities staged a dramatic turnaround in late trade after optimism surrounding a potential US-Iran peace understanding lifted investor sentiment globally, reinforcing hopes that easing crude oil prices could provide relief to several domestic sectors already under pressure from inflation concerns.

Speaking to ET Now, market expert Neeraj Dewan described Wednesday’s trading session as “a seesaw kind of a day,” with markets swinging sharply before recovering strongly on positive geopolitical headlines.

“Yesterday definitely was a seesaw kind of a day. You saw market doing well, then it gave up all the gains and then the news flow came in,” Dewan said.

According to him, the near-term direction of the market remains closely tied to developments around the US-Iran situation, especially because traders had built cautious positions in sectors sensitive to crude oil prices.

“I feel that in the shorter term definitely this US-Iran deal is going to be very important for our market because lot of positioning has been done in the market,” he said.

Crude-Sensitive Sectors Could See Sharp Recovery
Dewan noted that concerns over inflation and elevated crude prices had weighed on sectors such as banking, automobiles, auto ancillaries and real estate in recent weeks. Any meaningful correction in oil prices following a diplomatic breakthrough could trigger aggressive short covering in these pockets.
“If this deal is going to happen, then in the shorter term there can be some short covering in those sectors which can take the market up from these levels,” he said.The market has remained range-bound around the 24,000 mark despite intermittent rallies, but Dewan believes easing geopolitical tensions could provide the momentum needed for a stronger breakout.

“We have been very close to 24,000. We have had 200-300 points above that, below that, we have been languishing there only,” he observed.

Earnings Season Offers Domestic Comfort
While global developments remain critical in the near term, Dewan believes domestic fundamentals are steadily improving. He pointed out that the ongoing earnings season has largely surprised positively, especially within the broader market.

“Besides that, the earning season so far has not been that bad. There has been a quite decent earning season. Midcap, smallcaps have also started contributing,” he said.

He also highlighted encouraging performances from FMCG companies, citing Nestle India as an example of resilient earnings momentum. “I feel that there is lot of value in the broader market still even after the runup we have seen recently,” Dewan added.

He expects economic activity linked to domestic themes to gain further traction after election results, benefiting sectors such as infrastructure, railways, defence, water and real estate.

“My outlook for the market will be pretty constructive,” he said. “If the deal is happening, in the shorter term that will matter, but on the medium to long term also we are well placed where a broader rally can play out in the markets.”

Midcaps and Smallcaps Still Hold Opportunity
After a nearly 10% rise at the benchmark level and an even sharper rally in mid- and small-cap stocks, investors are debating whether the next phase of gains will be led by largecaps or broader markets.

Dewan remains firmly bullish on the mid- and small-cap universe. “It will be more into mid and smallcap space where still there is valuation gap,” he said.

Despite the recent rebound from March lows, he believes many investors are yet to recover losses incurred during the sharp correction seen between September and October 2024.

“Still people have not made that kind of return, they are still in losses as far as the broader portfolios are concerned,” he noted. However, he cautioned that the market is increasingly becoming stock-specific rather than sector-driven.

“So, it going to be more stock specific rather than sector specific from these levels because we have seen some rally already playing out,” he said.

IT Remains a Selective Bet
On the information technology sector, Dewan said the broader mood has not materially improved despite sharp corrections in several names.

“Actually, generally the mood has not changed because even the outlook given by some of the top companies has not been that great for the next year,” he said.

Still, he believes select opportunities exist. He cited relatively stable commentary from TCS and strong performances from companies like Oracle Financial Services Software.

“You cannot generalise and buy stock because they have corrected,” he cautioned. He also pointed to weakness in HCL Technologies after disappointing guidance, underlining the need for selective exposure.

Defence Spending Theme Intact
Defence stocks continue to remain among the market’s strongest performers this year, supported by expectations of sustained government spending and a robust order pipeline.

Dewan acknowledged that valuations in the sector are no longer cheap after the sharp rally, but believes long-term investors can still generate healthy returns.

“As far as defence is concerned, I think that the spending on defence is going to increase, that is for given,” he said.

Among his preferred names, he highlighted Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders and BEML. “Mazagon is one company where I feel they have a good order book, execution has been good so far,” he said.

On BEML, he added that its exposure to both defence and railway opportunities makes it attractive over the medium term. “I like more of the public sector companies there because they have been present for quite some time,” Dewan said.

Realty Rebounds on Value Buying
The real estate sector, which had underperformed through much of the previous financial year, has seen a strong comeback in recent weeks. Dewan attributed the rally largely to value buying after steep corrections in frontline property stocks.

“Even if you look at companies like DLF they had fallen so much in the last one year,” he said. According to him, investors are once again recognising the intrinsic value embedded in large land banks and ongoing project pipelines.

He believes the sector still offers meaningful medium- to long-term opportunity despite near-term moderation in returns. “One should be looking at adding them on dips because they had corrected a lot in the one year,” he said.

He also pointed out that real estate companies with greater exposure to NCR markets may still offer catch-up potential compared to Mumbai-focused developers that have already rallied sharply.

NBFCs Rewarding Strong Execution
On non-banking financial companies, Dewan acknowledged lingering concerns around inflation and interest rates, but maintained that stronger players remain well-positioned.

“Some of these stocks, the kind of number they have delivered even in spite of challenges which were there in the last couple of months has been pretty good,” he said.

He singled out Shriram Finance for delivering robust earnings despite macro headwinds.

“Stay with the solid bigger NBFCs, they have the potential to go through these small variations which may happen in the shorter term,” Dewan advised.

Momentum is building behind President Donald Trump’s push to make the U.S. the “crypto capital of the world,” as lawmakers work to advance key legislation that could reshape the industry.

“We obviously fully support the president’s agenda to make America the crypto capital of the world,” said Zach Witkoff, CEO of World Liberty Financial.

Witkoff, the son of Trump special envoy Steve Witkoff, discussed the CLARITY Act with FOX Business early Wednesday.

The act seeks to establish a regulatory framework for cryptocurrency. It previously received bipartisan support in the House but stalled in the Senate amid concerns over its treatment of stablecoin yield.

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After delays, the bill is now gaining momentum, with Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., indicating it could soon advance to a markup in the Senate.

While stopping short of predicting whether the measure will ultimately pass this time, Witkoff told “Mornings with Maria” that there are still “a lot of stakeholders at the table” as negotiations continue.

He also pushed back on concerns from traditional banks over crypto incentives, arguing that the growth of stablecoins has not led to a mass exodus of deposits.

“You haven’t seen it [deposit flight] at all [over the past year], and that’s all while stablecoins have been growing,” he said.

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“In fact, some of the bigger banks in the world have actually seen deposits come into the bank.”

He pointed to Customers Bank, which he said was a “much smaller” institution before working with crypto firms, and noted periods of deposit growth as it expanded into the space.

“I think there’s a lot of opportunity here for the banks that sort of get in on this early and actually embrace crypto, embrace stablecoins,” he added.

“We’re really just talking about a digital dollar here, and what we’re trying to do is democratize yield.”

South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott previously told FOX Business he hopes to hold a markup of the bill this month and bring the CLARITY Act to the Senate floor by June or July.

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“That means the average person in the country will be able to keep more of their money in their pocket,” Scott said last Thursday.

“America will be the crypto capital of the world.”

Global markets are once again displaying a remarkable ability to look beyond geopolitical uncertainty. Even as tensions involving the United States, Iran, and Israel continue to dominate headlines, investor sentiment across Wall Street and parts of Asia has turned sharply positive, supported by strong corporate earnings and continued enthusiasm around artificial intelligence-driven growth.

Speaking to ET Now, market expert Seth R Freeman from GlassRatner Advisory said the geopolitical situation remains fluid and difficult to predict, especially after the United States crossed the 60-day timeline that would ordinarily require congressional approval for military action.

“Well, we have passed the 60-day deadline that the president needed to go to Congress and get a declaration of war. So technically, the war has stopped — at least that is the message coming out of Washington,” Freeman said.

He added that the current environment remains a standoff, with Iran continuing to hold significant leverage because of its strategic control over the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes.

“It is extremely hard to answer how long this is going to take,” Freeman noted. “The problem here is that we have trained the Iranian regime to believe it has a lot of leverage with the Strait of Hormuz.”

No Clear Timeline for Resolution
While reports from Axios suggested that the United States and Iran may be nearing some form of diplomatic understanding, conflicting signals from former US President Donald Trump have kept uncertainty alive in the market.
Freeman pointed out that there is currently no firm deadline for negotiations to conclude.“Trump has now set no specific deadline,” he said. “There is a lot of reporting that there is an artificial timeline because he is planning to meet President Xi of China very soon, and I am sure he would like to avoid discussing this issue during that meeting.”

According to Freeman, the conflict has already complicated diplomatic schedules, with planned engagements reportedly delayed because of the outbreak of hostilities. He also questioned the effectiveness of efforts aimed at reducing Iran’s oil revenues through restrictions and shipping-related pressure tactics.

“This idea of blockading ships and trying to reduce Iran’s oil revenue does not seem to be working,” he said.

Markets Betting on Stability
Despite persistent geopolitical risks and concerns over oil prices, equity markets have shown surprising resilience. Investors appear increasingly confident that the situation may not escalate into a prolonged disruption severe enough to derail economic growth or corporate profitability.

Freeman observed that market participants are focusing more on earnings momentum than on geopolitical headlines.

“Who would imagine that with all of this volatility — war, oil concerns, and expectations of higher inflation — there is still significant confidence in future earnings?” he said.

He pointed to strong gains in US benchmark indices, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq continuing to advance on optimism surrounding technology and AI-linked companies.

“At the same time, though, consumer sentiment is at an all-time low,” Freeman added. “So, it is rather confusing in terms of reading the tea leaves.”

The divergence between buoyant stock markets and weak consumer confidence highlights the unusual structure of the current rally. Institutional investors, pension funds, and retirement-linked investments continue to support index performance, even as broader economic concerns linger beneath the surface.

Earnings Season Delivers Positive Surprise
Corporate earnings have played a major role in sustaining the rally. Large financial institutions have posted particularly strong numbers, benefiting from elevated market volatility and higher trading activity.

“The big financial services companies and the big banks have done fabulously because they make money on trading volume,” Freeman explained. “It really does not matter whether prices are going up or down as long as there is a lot of buying and selling.”

Beyond financials, artificial intelligence remains one of the biggest market drivers, with technology and hardware companies continuing to attract investor attention. However, Freeman also noted that gains are no longer limited to just a handful of AI-focused names.

“Some of the older, more mainstream companies in the Dow also performed quite well,” he said. “So, it seems to be broad-based.”

Still, not every sector is participating equally in the rally. Healthcare stocks, according to Freeman, continue to face pressure, while automobile companies could struggle if elevated crude oil prices persist for an extended period.

“I am not sure what is going to happen with automobiles if we continue to have sustained high oil prices,” he said.

As geopolitical negotiations continue in the background, financial markets appear determined to focus on earnings growth and liquidity. Whether that optimism proves durable may ultimately depend on how quickly diplomacy catches up with investor expectations.

So it appears that America and Iran are moving closer on a proposal to restart peace talks. Yet it seems so indirect, like a carom shot in pool.

Who can be sure? As I read it, from the media reports, principally Axios and the Wall Street Journal, America and Iran are working on a one-page framework to restart negotiations.

So there has to be agreement on the one-pager, and if there is agreement, then actual negotiations might begin next week at Islamabad or Geneva, Switzerland.

So if I get this even remotely right, and I don’t have much direct information, we are negotiating in order to begin negotiating. Well, okay.

And if the negotiations don’t work out you can be sure that all bombing hell will descend on Iran — much worse than anything they’ve seen before.

As the president said on this whole thing this afternoon: “We’re in good shape. And, now we’re doing well. Now we have to get what we have to get. If we don’t do that, we’ll have to go a big step further. But with that being said, they want to make a deal. We’ve had very good talks over the last 24 hours, and it’s very possible that we’ll make a deal.”

Meanwhile, Project Freedom has been paused which frankly disappoints me because I had hoped our great United States Navy would have been able to ramp up 50 to 100 or more commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz.

And if there’s a 30-day period of negotiations, the United States Navy’s blockade would gradually be lifted. This too is disappointing.

At this point, though, the blockade is very much still in place. So again, we’ll wait to see more information. Another piece to this Iran story is President Trump’s trip to Communist China. Is this part of the negotiation process?

My hope has always been that America would exert complete control over the whole Arabian Gulf, including the Hormuz Strait for some considerable period of time.

Now that may still happen. And of course our military forces are not going any place. And when Mr. Trump says it’s very possible a deal can be reached, then I’ll go along with that. I’ve supported him the whole time. I know he’s not going to make a bad deal.

I know he’ll insist on the key red lines of stopping Iranian enrichment of uranium. And transferring enriched uranium from Iran to the United States. And I believe the president would never allow Iran to have control over shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

What’s more, I’m certain he will insist that Iran stop its state-sponsored terrorism, and that war against Israel and for that matter its war against the United States.

Yet there is a fear among our Gulf allies, that there’s too much uncertainty and the American team.

And so it would seem, regrettably, that there will be no major regime change in Iran. Which of course once again raises the issue of verification and trust.

Iran has never allowed either. And right now that may be the toughest part of this whole story.