Key Takeaways

• Matthew Sigel from VanEck projected Bitcoin reaching $1 million in a five-year timeframe during a CNBC appearance.
• The $1 million figure represents VanEck’s baseline scenario rather than an optimistic projection.
• Sigel drew parallels between Bitcoin’s adoption pattern and the gaming industry’s multigenerational growth.
• At interview time, Bitcoin was hovering near $81,000, showing year-to-date losses despite monthly gains.
• The executive highlighted Bitcoin’s strongest Nasdaq correlation in five years and minimal derivatives speculation as indicators of sustainable momentum.

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Matthew Sigel, who leads digital assets research at VanEck, delivered a striking forecast this Wednesday: Bitcoin’s price could surge to $1 million over the next five years.

During his CNBC appearance, Sigel emphasized this projection isn’t merely aspirational — it represents VanEck’s fundamental outlook. “I believe a five-year horizon is achievable,” he stated, referencing demographic patterns and increasing engagement from younger market participants.

Bitcoin was valued around $81,000 when Sigel made these comments, reflecting negative yearly performance but positive movement over recent weeks.

To illustrate his perspective, Sigel compared Bitcoin’s trajectory to the gaming sector’s evolution. “Three decades back, video games were exclusively for children. Today, even Elon Musk is a gamer. People don’t abandon these habits. The same applies to Bitcoin.”

He continued: “We’re witnessing a megatrend, though the journey will include significant volatility.”

Factors Fueling Recent Price Momentum

Sigel identified two critical elements supporting Bitcoin’s latest upward movement. Initially, Bitcoin’s relationship with the Nasdaq index has hit its strongest point in half a decade, indicating synchronized movement with technology equities. Additionally, he observed that derivatives trading shows minimal excessive speculation, implying the advance stems from short position liquidation instead of aggressive leverage.

He referenced a central banking institution acquiring Bitcoin for reserve purposes as evidence of advancing mainstream acceptance, though the specific organization remained unnamed.

VanEck isn’t alone in forecasting seven-figure Bitcoin valuations. The previous month saw Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan issue an identical prediction. Coinciding with Sigel’s interview, Eric Trump — President Donald Trump’s son — similarly declared Bitcoin would exceed $1 million. Eric Trump helped establish American Bitcoin, a company focused on Bitcoin mining and treasury operations.

Other Seven-Figure Predictions

During 2024, VanEck’s CEO Jan Van Eck forecasted Bitcoin reaching $300,000. The current $1 million projection represents a substantial increase from that earlier estimate.

It’s important to recognize that several of these analysts maintain financial interests connected to Bitcoin’s valuation. VanEck manages Bitcoin-focused investment vehicles, and related entities profit from price appreciation.

Based on data from prediction marketplace Kalshi, probabilities stood approximately even regarding Bitcoin’s potential return to $100,000 during 2026.

Bitcoin was valued at $81,221 at 3:18 p.m. ET Wednesday.

The Trump brothers’ bitcoin mining venture cut its cost per coin by nearly a quarter in three months, going against industry trends.

American Bitcoin (ABTC) said in a Wednesday filing that its cost to mine one bitcoin fell to roughly $36,200 in the first quarter, a 23% drop from $46,900 in Q4 2025.

That puts it materially below the publicly listed miner average of around $80,000 per bitcoin in late 2025, as CoinDesk reported, and inside the band where mining at current bitcoin prices remains genuinely profitable rather than a managed loss.

The improvement came from spreading higher production volume across a stable fixed-cost base, plus what management called “continued energy pricing discipline.”

The Drumheller site in Alberta, which was switched on and began running miners in late March, added roughly 3.05 exahash of computing power, a measure of how many guesses per second the mining hardware can make to find new bitcoin. Total fleet capacity hit 28.1 exahash by quarter-end, with around 89,000 mining machines running.

As such, American Bitcoin posted an $81.8 million net loss for the quarter, with most of that driven by mark-to-market accounting on its bitcoin holdings as the price dropped roughly 22% over the period.

Revenue came in at $62.1 million versus $78.3 million in Q4 2025, reflecting a lower average revenue per coin mined of $76,000 versus $100,000.

Strip out the non-cash bitcoin revaluation, however, and the underlying mining business was profitable. The company added 1,620 bitcoin to its strategic reserve in the quarter, taking its holdings to roughly 7,021 BTC, a 30% increase in three months.

Of that, 817 came from mining and 803 from open-market treasury purchases. American Bitcoin is now the 16th largest publicly traded bitcoin holder globally.

What makes the quarter notable structurally is the contrast with the rest of the cohort. Public miners have collectively pivoted toward AI and high-performance computing, signing more than $70 billion in cumulative contracts and reducing their bitcoin treasuries by over 15,000 BTC since late 2024 to fund the transition.

ABTC shares were down about 1% in after-hours trading and remain nearly 90% below their September 2025 listing peak of around $1.25.

Bitcoin lenders may need to become more like traditional finance firms, not less, if they want institutional capital to keep flowing into the sector.

At Consensus 2026 in Miami, Alexander Blume, founder and CEO of institutional bitcoin lender Two Prime, argued that the next stage of crypto credit growth will depend less on decentralized finance experimentation and more on standardization, transparency, and risk management.

“The moment you start trying to explain how any of this stuff works, they’re just like, No… We’ll pay more. Don’t lose my money,” Blume said, referring to institutional borrowers evaluating crypto lending products that become difficult to defend during periods of market stress.

The comments reflected a broader post-2022 shift in crypto lending following the collapses of Celsius, Voyager, and BlockFi, when opaque leverage, aggressive rehypothecation, and weak risk controls triggered a wider credit crisis across the industry. In the years since, many institutional borrowers have moved away from complex DeFi structures in favor of products centered on transparent custody, standardized contracts, and clearly identifiable counterparties.

Across the panel, speakers repeatedly suggested that institutional finance and crypto-native finance remain fundamentally misaligned in their approaches to risk. While DeFi evolved around permissionless access, composability, and capital efficiency, institutions continue to prioritize predictability, legal accountability, and operational simplicity.

That tension was especially visible in the discussion around rehypothecation, the practice of reusing customer collateral to generate additional yield, which became one of the defining risks exposed during the 2022 lending collapse.

“The most important thing to ask… is where is your Bitcoin stored,” said Adam Reeds, co-founder and CEO of Ledn.

Jay Patel, co-founder and CEO of Lygos Finance, said borrowers increasingly need to “underwrite the lender” themselves before taking loans against their bitcoin holdings.

“The biggest point in my mind is definitely the rehypothecation piece,” Patel said.

Blume said institutional borrowers often reject crypto-native lending structures not because they oppose bitcoin, but because the operational complexity surrounding many DeFi systems remains difficult to justify to boards, shareholders, and risk committees.

At one point, Blume distilled the divide between crypto-native finance and institutional finance into a single observation.

“Our whole financial system is set up to have someone else to blame,” he said, arguing that institutional borrowers still prefer identifiable intermediaries, standardized processes, and legal accountability over fully autonomous financial systems.

For many lenders on stage, the future of crypto credit no longer appears tied to making finance more decentralized. Instead, it may depend on convincing institutional borrowers that bitcoin-backed lending can behave predictably enough to resemble the traditional system they already trust.

Aave Labs has completed the liquidation of the Kelp DAO attacker’s remaining rsETH collateral on Ethereum and Arbitrum, marking a concrete step in the DeFi United recovery plan to fully back rsETH and compensate affected users. Aave described the move as a “critical step,” with the liquidated collateral now routed to Recovery Guardian, a multisignature wallet overseen by DeFi United. Aave’s update on X notes that user funds were not touched in this process and that its Umbrella insurance mechanism was not activated.

With the latest liquidation, DeFi United estimates it is roughly 10% short of the ETH needed to restore full rsETH backing, according to Thaddeus Pinakiewicz, vice president of Galaxy Digital’s research team. The recovery plan has continued to hinge on securing additional ETH commitments and on governance decisions that can unlock the remaining liquidity for rsETH holders. The Kelp DAO attack in mid-April, which exploited about $293 million, has reverberated through the DeFi lending sector and raised questions about the resilience of cross-chain recovery efforts.

Aave stressed that the liquidation reduces liquidity risk without endangering user funds, and it reiterated that its automated protection for bad debt, Umbrella, was not invoked in this step. The development comes as DeFi United moves toward a broader funding package and a mix of on-chain and off-chain governance actions aimed at restoring rsETH’s collateralization and legitimacy.

Key takeaways

• 13,000 ETH liquidated from the attacker’s collateral on Ethereum and Arbitrum would be released to Recovery Guardian, a DeFi United multisignature wallet, equating to roughly $30.2 million at current prices.
• Approximately 30,765 ETH remain frozen by Arbitrum DAO in “legal limbo” after a restraining notice was filed by US law firm Gerstein Harrow LLP to prevent redistribution. Aave has filed an emergency motion to vacate the restraining notice.
• Arbitrum DAO voting on the release of frozen ETH to the DeFi United fund shows overwhelming support — more than 90% in favor — with the vote closing on Friday.
• DeFi United is seeking commitments from Circle, Ethena, Frax, and Kraken-built Ethereum layer 2 Ink to “get it over the line and plug the hole,” according to project backers.
• Aave’s total value locked (TVL) has stopped its steep decline, with DefiLlama data showing a rebound above the $15 billion level after a period of outsized outflows tied to the Kelp DAO incident.

Recovery progress and the rsETH restoration plan

The liquidation of the attacker’s rsETH collateral on both Ethereum and Arbitrum represents a tangible step toward reinforcing the rsETH backstop. By transferring the collateral to Recovery Guardian, DeFi United aims to create a more predictable path for restitution to affected users and to reestablish the integrity of rsETH’s staking framework. While the total value of the liquidated portion sits in transit, observers are watching closely for the next tranche of ETH required to complete the backing.

Thaddeus Pinakiewicz of Galaxy Digital’s research team framed the current status as a near-term milestone rather than a finished cure. “DeFi United is roughly 10% short of the ETH needed to restore full rsETH backing,” he noted, underscoring how the plan’s success hinges on securing a relatively small but crucial slice of liquidity from the broader ecosystem. The remaining 30,765 ETH, currently frozen by Arbitrum DAO, illustrates the enduring tension between on-chain recovery mechanics and legal/organizational processes that govern cross-chain assets in crisis scenarios.

Legal contours, governance and the path forward

The legal dimension of the Kelp DAO incident remains a key obstacle. The restraining notice filed by Gerstein Harrow LLP aims to prevent redistribution of the frozen ETH while the matter unfolds in court, creating a “legal limbo” that could delay the final recovery steps. In response, Aave has lodged an emergency motion to vacate the restraining notice, signaling active legal maneuvering from the recovering coalition.

Meanwhile, Arbitrum DAO is in the thick of a governance vote about releasing the frozen ETH to the DeFi United fund. With more than 90% of participating voters in favor, the outcome could unlock a significant portion of the collateral needed to underpin rsETH. The vote is set to close on Friday, and the decision will test the DAO’s ability to balance fiduciary duty with the broader goal of DeFi resilience. For some observers, the situation also underscores the evolving role of DAOs in crisis response and the potential regulatory scrutiny that can accompany large-scale cross-chain fund movements.

Beyond the immediate goal of rsETH restoration, DeFi United has earmarked a broader set of commitments that could shape the recovery’s speed and effectiveness. The coalition is courting backing from Circle, Ethena, Frax, and Kraken’s Ethereum layer 2 solution Ink. Securing these commitments would help to “plug the hole” and accelerate the path back to a fully collateralized rsETH, while also signaling a willingness among major stablecoin issuers and L2 ecosystems to stand behind DeFi’s recovery efforts during a stress event.

Market impact and ecosystem resilience

The Kelp DAO incident remains among the most consequential hacks of 2026, with the initial shock driving a broad unwind across DeFi lending protocols. Aave’s TVL declined sharply as the attacker collateralized rsETH to borrow wrapped Ether, triggering a cascade of withdrawals and more than $190 million in bad debt on the platform. In the weeks that followed, DefiLlama’s data shows that net outflows from Aave’s lending markets have begun to ease, and the protocol’s total value locked has rebounded from its local trough to sit above the $15 billion mark again.

This rebound is not a victory lap. The episode exposed structural vulnerabilities in DeFi lending and cross-chain collateral arrangements, especially when attacker assets are pledged to secure new loans. The current recovery push—backed by on-chain governance, legal processes, and strategic partnerships with major stablecoins and L2 infrastructure—could shape how the market assesses risk and contingency planning in the months ahead. For borrowers and lenders alike, the episode reinforces the importance of rigorous collateralization, transparent governance, and robust rescue frameworks when incidents test the integrity of a protocol’s backstops.

As the governance process unfolds and the legal questions are resolved, investors and users should watch closely how quickly DeFi United can assemble the remainder of the ETH and how the community and regulators respond to the coordinated release of frozen assets. The balance between restoring rsETH’s credibility and maintaining prudent risk controls will likely influence funding, liquidity incentives, and the broader appetite for DeFi risk in the near term.

Readers should monitor updates from Aave, Arbitrum DAO, and DeFi United as the Friday vote concludes and as Circle, Ethena, Frax, and Ink’s involvement firm up. The outcome will help determine not only the fate of rsETH but also the broader precedent for crisis response in decentralized finance.

Representative James Baird won the Republican primary for Indiana’s 4th Congressional District, keeping his reelection campaign on track before the 2026 midterms. 

Decision Desk HQ data showed Baird ahead with 35,805 votes, or 60.28%, while Craig Haggard had 18,256 votes, or 30.73%. John Piper followed with 5,340 votes.

The race drew attention from the crypto sector because Baird received support from Defend American Jobs, a political action committee linked to Fairshake. Crypto.news reported that the PAC spent about $514,000 on media buys to support Baird before the Indiana primary.

Crypto PAC money enters the race

Defend American Jobs backed Baird after he supported crypto-related legislation in Congress. Crypto.news reported that Stand With Crypto rated him as strongly supportive of digital assets after his votes on the GENIUS Act and the CLARITY Act.

Fairshake has become one of the most active crypto-funded groups in U.S. politics. A Fairshake spokesperson said, “Representative Baird has been a proven leader for pro-job, pro-consumer, and pro-innovation policies in Congress.” The group said it supports candidates who back responsible digital asset regulation.

Meanwhile, the Indiana result comes as crypto groups prepare for a larger role in the 2026 midterm elections. Crypto.news reported that Fairshake and AI-focused PACs have already deployed more than $100 million into midterm races.

At the same time, public trust remains mixed. A Public First poll cited by crypto.news found that 45% of Americans viewed crypto investing as too risky. The same report said 44% of respondents believed AI was moving too fast.

Baird also received an endorsement from Donald Trump. AP reported that Trump-backed candidates performed strongly in several Indiana Republican races, showing how national political spending and endorsements shaped local contests.

CLARITY Act debate stays in focus

Baird’s win comes as Congress weighs digital asset rules, including the CLARITY Act. Crypto.news reported that Senators Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks reached a compromise on stablecoin yield, but banking groups later pushed back against the text.

The compromise would block passive stablecoin yield that acts like bank interest while allowing rewards linked to platform activity. Crypto firms see the deal as a possible path for the bill, while banking groups argue it still leaves room for deposit outflows.

The Indiana primary shows how crypto policy has become part of campaign strategy. Baird’s win gives the sector another preferred candidate heading into November, while the stablecoin and market structure debates continue in Washington.

Stablecoins are more likely to go mainstream if adopted by major technology companies, a shift Bitwise says could help push the market closer to a projected $4 trillion by the end of the decade.

Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan said on Tuesday that DoorDash and Meta’s recent use of stablecoins for payments in limited projects is likely “the real killer app of stablecoins.” 

“On a relative basis, these are not a big deal. Both are pilot projects and the dollar amounts are small,” Hougan wrote. “But they’ve answered a question I’ve had about stablecoins for a long time. They’ve also increased my confidence that stablecoins will scale to trillions in assets and hundreds of millions of users.”

Multiple large non-crypto institutions have been testing stablecoin technology. Meta on Thursday launched stablecoin payouts for creators in the Philippines and Colombia, while the food delivery app DoorDash said on April 21 it would offer stablecoin payments to its users, workers and merchants.

The market value of all stablecoins is currently just under $318 billion, but Hougan said projections, such as one from Citigroup in September, say the market could grow to $4 trillion by 2030 in a best-case scenario.

Matt Hougan, pictured at Bitcoin 2026. Source: YouTube

“To get there, stablecoins will have to expand beyond their current primary use case of crypto trading and be embraced for everyday activity, like payments,” Hougan said. “To really scale to hundreds of millions of users, stablecoins are going to need the support of very large players.”

He said that the current pitch to businesses about stablecoins is that they are cheaper and faster, but another main reason multinational companies would adopt the technology is to simplify their global payments infrastructure.

Related: Stablecoin firms have a $112B additional opportunity in LATAM remittance

“Stablecoins make global payments simple,” he argued. “One wallet address, no banking infrastructure, no currency conversions. For a global business managing millions of micropayments, that type of simplicity is worth a lot.”

Companies in the US have been more confident in testing stablecoins after Congress passed the GENIUS Act last year, a bill regulating stablecoin issuers and forming a framework for how the tokens should be backed.

Visa is among the companies that have adopted stablecoins, and the payments giant expanded its pilot of the tokens on Thursday to include five more blockchains as the volume of settlements on its stablecoin settlement network has grown.

US banks have meanwhile grown wary of stablecoins and have lobbied to restrict them, arguing they compete with and threaten bank deposits, which could harm the banking system.

The Senate is shaping legislation outlining how crypto will be regulated, which currently includes a clause banning platforms such as crypto exchanges from paying rewards on idle stablecoin holdings, but allowing other forms of rewards.

However, banking groups on Tuesday argued the clause that lawmakers pitched as a compromise between crypto and banking lobbyists’ interests, did not go far enough.

Magazine: GENIUS Act reopens the door for a Meta stablecoin, but will it work?

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