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Bitcoin Analysts Say This Must Happen for a ‘Durable’ BTC Price Recovery

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Bitcoin Analysts Say This Must Happen for a ‘Durable’ BTC Price Recovery

Bitcoin’s (BTC) relief rally to $82,000 appears to be cooling off, and analysts say key levels must be reclaimed for BTC price to “confirm a durable continuation higher.”

Key takeaways:

  • Bitcoin must break resistance at $85,000-$88,000 to confirm that the bottom is in.
  • Profit-taking on rallies must cool down for a sustained breakout in BTC price. 

Bitcoin must reclaim $88,000 as support

Bitcoin’s 7% climb over the last week to $81,000 saw it reclaim key levels, including the true market mean at $78,200 and short-term holder (STH) cost basis at $79,100.

If the price sustains above these two levels, the 50% drawdown from the $126,000 all-time high to sub-$60,000 levels in February “would rank among the shortest episodes of its kind in Bitcoin market history,” Glassnode said in its latest Week Onchain newsletter, adding:

“Attention now shifts to the next major resistance at the Active Realized Price near $85.2K, which tracks the cost basis of all non-dormant supply and represents the next structural threshold the market must reckon with.”

Bitcoin risk indicator. Source: Glassnode

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The last time Bitcoin reclaimed its active realized price, in October 2023, it was followed by a 170% rally to its previous all-time high of $74,000 reached in March 2024. These gains increased to 365% once the price hit its current record highs above $126,000.

Related: Bitcoin Bollinger Bands push key breakout as creator acts on ‘positive’ signal 

Bitcoin’s realized price by age cohorts reveals other major levels of resistance sitting higher up: the realized price of the three-to-six-month investor cohort at $88,880, the 12-month-18-month cost basis at $93,450 and the average purchase price of the six-to-12-month investor cohort at $111,850.

“For the bottom to be confirmed, price needs to clear $88.88K and hold – not wick through, not retest and fail,” CryptoQuant analyst IT Tech said in a Thursday Quicktake note, adding:

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“Until then, every rally into $85K-$88K is walking straight into distribution from November 2025-Feb 2026, buyers desperate to get out flat.”

Bitcoin realized price – UTXO age bands. Source: CryptoQuant

A sustained move above that level could put recent buyers back in profit and reduce sell pressure, confirming a “durable continuation higher,” Glassnode added.

Analyst MikybullCrypto highlighted Bitcoin’s core levels of resistance before a “mega solid trend change,” including $88,000 and $92,000, based on Fibonacci level analysis. 

“Overcome these resistances, then $100K is guaranteed.”

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: MikybullCrypto

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Profit-taking by long-term holders could delay BTC price recovery 

Bitcoin’s current pullback below $81,000 could be attributed to increased profit-taking by long-term holders.

Additionally, the 14-day simple moving average of profit realized by investors who have held BTC for more than one year has increased to about $180 million per day following the recent rally.

Should the current recovery continue, “this distribution pressure is likely to intensify,” Glassnode said, adding:

“The market’s ability to absorb this gradual increase in supply while sustaining the price above the True Market Mean will be the defining test of whether the current recovery has genuine structural legs.”

Bitcoin realized profit by age. Source: Glassnode

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Meanwhile, realized losses remain elevated at $479 million per day, approximately 140% above the $200 million per day cycle baseline. 

A sustained compression of this indicator below $200 million per day would serve as a strong indicator that selling exhaustion is setting in and confirm a “more durable recovery regime,” Glassnode said, adding:

“Until that threshold is reached, the dual weight of long-term holder profit taking and top-buyer distribution at thin loss margins is likely to anchor the current rally.”

Bitcoin realized loss. Source: Glassnode

This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.

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Can Silver Reclaim Its $121 All-Time High Before May Ends?

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Silver Falling Channel Pattern

Silver (XAG/USD) trades near $79 after a 3% intraday jump cleared a multi-month resistance shelf, with the dollar simultaneously sliding inside its own falling channel.

The setup combines a structural pattern, an inverse macro driver weakening in lockstep, and a futures positioning read that hints at a quiet but persistent bullish lean. Whether silver can chase its $121.65 all-time high depends on which signal wins out.

Silver Builds Continuation Setup After 167% Surge

Silver surged 167% from its October 2025 low at $45 to an all-time high of $121 in late January. Since that peak, the metal has traded inside a falling channel, a structural pattern bounded by two parallel descending trendlines.

Want more insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Newsletter here.

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Falling channels are not always bearish. When they form after an extended rally, they often resolve as continuation patterns. The structure marks a pause before the prior trend resumes.

Silver Falling Channel Pattern
Silver Falling Channel Pattern: TradingView

Today’s session pushed silver about 3% higher to roughly $79. The move broke above a multi-month resistance shelf that had capped every prior rally attempt. The resistance shelf is revealed later in this piece. For now, the next hurdle would be the upper trendline of the channel. If that breaks, bullish continuation for Silver (XAG) can resume.

The breakout signal is technically clean, but a single-day move means little without macro support. The dollar’s path is the bigger driver.

Dollar Weakness Builds the Case for Higher Silver

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has been falling since early April. The index tracks the dollar against a basket of major currencies.

Silver and the dollar move inversely. A weaker dollar makes silver cheaper for foreign buyers and lifts emerging market demand. It also reduces the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset.

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DXY Falling Channel
DXY Falling Channel: TradingView

The dollar’s slide has been reinforced by macro developments. On May 6, Brent and WTI crude oil prices dropped 7% to 8%. The selloff was driven by optimism around a US-Iran deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

A finalized agreement would reduce safe-haven dollar demand and accelerate DXY weakness. Also, if DXY weakens another 1.55%, the channel breakdown could help silver further.

Whether the dollar’s drop is being priced in, however, depends on positioning at the futures level.

COT Report Shows Cautious Deleveraging With Bullish Lean

The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is dated April 28. It shows traders cutting silver exposure across the board.

Total open interest, the number of outstanding futures contracts, dropped by 14,187 to 101,275. Both longs and shorts were reduced, but shorts came off faster. Non-commercial speculators trimmed long positions by 1,919 contracts and short positions by 2,359 contracts. Shorts unwound roughly 23% faster than longs.

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COT Report
COT Report: Tradingster

Net speculative positioning remains structurally long at a 4.4-to-1 long-to-short ratio (31,314 vs 7,154). Commercial hedgers stay heavily short at 69.2% of open interest. This is normal because they hedge physical inventory.

Traders are reducing risk, but the marginal flow is bullish. Shorts are exiting faster than longs. With the macro chain and positioning aligned, silver’s price ladder reveals the actual path to the all-time high.

Silver Price Levels: The Path Back to a $121 All-Time High

Silver just broke above $78, the 0.236 Fibonacci level. This level had been the multi-month resistance shelf.

A sustained reclaim opens $90 (0.382 Fibonacci), where the upper channel trendline breaks meaningfully. Above $90, the next test is $99 (0.5 Fibonacci). That marks a 24% climb from current price.

That $99 level is critical. Silver attempted multiple rallies after the late-January peak but failed to cross $99 on each attempt. Reclaiming it would mark the first decisive break of post-ATH structure.

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Silver Price Analysis
Silver Price Analysis: TradingView

Above $99, the path opens to $108 (0.618 Fib), $120 (0.786 Fib), and the all-time high at $121. That move represents a 53% climb from current price. However, this level surfacing in May depends on how the COT positioning and DXY move evolve through the month.

The downside ladder is narrower. Failure to hold $78 keeps silver in the channel. A slide toward $64 and $60, the channel’s lower band, becomes the next risk. A break below $60 would weaken the entire continuation thesis. For now, $99 separates a silver price run to $121 ATH from a slide to the $64.

The post Can Silver Reclaim Its $121 All-Time High Before May Ends? appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Crypto Markets Slide While S& P 500 Notches Fresh Record on Iran Peace Hopes

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Crypto Markets Slide While S& P 500 Notches Fresh Record on Iran Peace Hopes


Strategy’s Q1 earnings call signaled a departure from Saylor’s “never sell” mantra, with Bitcoin slipping below $81,000 in the aftermath.

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Kraken Parent Payward Buys Reap Technologies in $600M Deal

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Kraken Parent Payward Buys Reap Technologies in $600M Deal

Kraken parent Payward agreed to acquire Hong Kong-based Reap Technologies for up to $600 million, expanding its push into stablecoin payments and business-to-business (B2B) financial infrastructure.

Payward has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Reap for up to $600 million, the company announced Thursday. The deal is set to be paid in a mix of cash and Payward stock, in a transaction that values Payward’s equity at $20 billion. It would expand Payward Services, the company’s B2B infrastructure platform launched in March 2026.

The deal comes as crypto companies increasingly expand beyond trading services into payments infrastructure and stablecoin-related products as stablecoins gain traction among fintech firms and businesses.

In a statement on Thursday, Reap co-founders said the platform would continue operating as a standalone platform, adding that the transaction remains subject to customary regulatory approvals, expected to close in the second half of 2026.

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Reap expands Payward Services into global cards and payments

Payward Services allows companies to integrate trading, payments, funding and digital asset services through one system.

The acquisition of Reap extends that platform into the global cards and payments space, allowing partners to embed card issuance, cross-border payments, and stablecoin treasury services alongside Payward’s existing capabilities.

Source: Kraken

“Reap is the payments layer for what comes next. Card networks, banking rails, and blockchains on a single API, settling in stablecoins,” Payward and Kraken co-CEO Arjun Sethi said in the announcement.

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Related: Kraken parent Payward closes Bitnomial deal to expand US crypto derivatives

The acquisition of Reap follows Payward’s acquisitions of Bitnomial exchange, futures broker NinjaTrader and xStocks issuer Backed, as the company continues expanding its platform through targeted acquisitions.

Reap deal deepens Asia push

Reap was founded in 2018 by Daren Guo, who previously worked for the Asia Pacific business at the payments firm Stripe, and former investment banker Kevin Kang, according to its website.

The company specializes in provisioning payment solutions to connect traditional financial systems with digital assets, aiming to enable cross-border money flows.

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Sethi reportedly said that the deal marks Payward’s first infrastructure acquisition in Asia and one of its largest transactions to date.

“If you take Europe out, the fastest growing market is Asia, not just revenue but also asset-on-platform,” Sethi said, adding: “They have already done it in Asia. They can expand into the US overnight with us.”

Magazine: Guide to the top and emerging global crypto hubs: Mid-2026

Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This news article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate and timely information. Readers are encouraged to verify information independently.

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Strategy Posts $12.5B Q1 Loss as BTC Prices Weigh on Results

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The world’s largest corporate Bitcoin (BTC) holder, Strategy, yesterday released its Q1 2026 financial results, which show a net loss of $12.54 billion.

According to the report, this was mostly due to a $14.46 billion unrealized loss stemming from poor BTC prices during the first few months of 2026.

Losses Mount, But Accumulation Continues

Operating loss was $14.47 billion, compared with $ 5.92 billion in the prior year. Loss for the quarter attributable to common stockholders was $12.77 billion, or $38.25 per diluted share, whereas a year earlier, it was $4.23 billion.

However, if you strip out the Bitcoin accounting, the underlying software business held relatively steady, with total revenues growing 11.9% year-over-year to $124.3 million, while gross profit came in at $83.4 million.

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Furthermore, the company’s actual BTC position kept growing through the quarter. Strategy bought 89,599 BTC in Q1, bringing its total holdings to 818,334 BTC, which is a 22% increase year to date.

The company has raised nearly $12 billion in capital markets activity so far in 2026, including $7.37 billion in Q1 alone through its at-the-market offering program spanning MSTR shares and its preferred stock instruments.

The preferred equity side of the business was a particular focus on the call. STRC, Strategy’s variable-rate preferred stock, has now scaled to $8.5 billion in notional value in just nine months, which the company described as the largest preferred stock by market cap in the world.

According to CFO Andrew Kang, the cumulative dividends declared and paid across all instruments have now crossed $693 million across 23 consecutive distributions.

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The Bitcoin Sale Question

One of the biggest takeaways from the earnings call was Executive Chairman Michael Saylor’s suggestion that Strategy could sell some of its BTC stash to cover dividend obligations.

“We will probably sell some Bitcoin to pay a dividend just to inoculate the market and send the message that we did it,” he said.

The statement was notable because Saylor has spent years evangelizing BTC as an asset you never sell, and analyst Jeff Park, who participated in the call, flagged the comment as more material than the company’s previous discussions on the subject.

Park also pointed out that Strategy’s exposure to US interest rates is becoming more relevant given STRC’s nature as a floating instrument, especially when you consider the approaching tenure of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair and the prospect of rate cuts on the table.

A couple of weeks ago, Bitcoin skeptic Peter Schiff held a live X Space, where he called STRC “an obvious Ponzi scheme” and argued that the company had no meaningful income outside its software division and therefore funds dividend payouts by continuously issuing new STRC shares.

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Strategy has pushed back on that characterization, pointing to its BTC holdings as a balance sheet backstop.

MSTR shares closed at around $187, down roughly 3.5% in after-hours trading following the earnings release. STRC, meanwhile, is trading just below $100 with an effective annualized yield of 11.5%, with Bitcoin itself holding at around $81,000 at the time of writing.

The post Strategy Posts $12.5B Q1 Loss as BTC Prices Weigh on Results appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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Crypto for Advisors: beneath the crypto surface

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Chart: GSR Conviction gauge

In today’s newsletter, Andy Baehr from GSR examines how, beneath the stalled market, advisors are quietly building durable crypto allocations, moving beyond BTC and gaining more comfort in this asset class.

Then, in “Ask an Expert,” Patrick Velleman of Valdora offers commentary on how financial advisors can navigate the growing trend of durable crypto allocations.

Sarah Morton


Summer is coming. Build your core.

Crypto markets feel low-energy and ambivalent. But, beneath the surface, investors are searching for the right long-term home in crypto. It’s time to position for the next change of the season.

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The question finds every crypto person, eventually. A friend, a relative, a client asks: ”I want to add some crypto. What should I actually own?”

Before answering, let’s be honest about the current environment.

Rallies with no booster rocket

The good news: crypto prices are drifting higher. The less-good news: they’re only drifting. Bitcoin has moved from the mid-$60,000s to the high $70,000s, ether (ETH) from around $1,800 toward $2,300, and Solana (SOL) in the mid-$80s. Movement without momentum. Progress without pulse — and more than a few sad-trombone rallies that faded before they could build on themselves.

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The feeling of … ambivalence ... was so palpable, we developed a Conviction/Ambivalence gauge. In Q1 2026, we hit maximum ambivalence. Other signals point the same way. Funding rates on perpetual futures, a clean read on leveraged appetite, have been persistently low or negative. DeFi borrow rates on Aave drifted toward 3% ahead of a recent exploit, versus 20%+ in the weeks after the 2024 election and 5–7% in more typical conditions. The fast money is elsewhere: oil, equities, prediction markets. Volatility is both a magnet and a product of hot markets, and right now, crypto has a shortage of both.

Chart: GSR Conviction gauge

The Conviction Gauge measures an average ratio of weekly returns to daily returns. Source: GSR

That stands in stark contrast to last year’s Q2 and Q3 rally, which had velocity, power, and breadth. ETH led. SOL pushed hard in August and September. The GENIUS Act added fuel. That was a market with real conviction.

The slower shift that matters more

And yet beneath the surface, something more durable is happening: longer-term investors and their advisors are quietly getting more comfortable allocating to crypto. That shift doesn’t flood X the way a funding rate spike does. Nobody is posting charts about advisors quietly building allocations, but it’s the iceberg that matters. Over time, the effects will be felt, and they will be durable.

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And for those allocators, BTC alone is no longer the answer. Its role has been clarified as the macro asset, something that may even behave defensively when markets contract. But advisors are being asked to go further. Clients want exposure to the blockchain growth story: tokenization, stablecoins, the layer-one infrastructure that’s now top-of-fold business news.

So what should the core actually be?

Our answer is straightforward: BTC, ETH and SOL. The power trio. The cycle survivors. Two distinct themes across three assets: BTC as the major macro asset, with ETH and SOL as the layer-ones on which blockchain’s growth story settles. Neck and neck, genuinely competing and we believe, likely to both win.

A solid core holding though, should do more than just sit there. Proof-of-stake assets like ETH and SOL can generate yield through staking, a return stream that passive holders often leave on the table. And you want a product that tilts toward the market: one that reads different environments and adjusts weights to seek excess return, rather than holding fixed weights through every regime.

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That’s a lot to ask. So we launched an ETF to make it easy.

The GSR Crypto Core3 ETF (BESO) packages the core BTC, ETH and SOL, with staking rewards on ETH and SOL, and active, research-driven weekly rebalancing. Over time, investors will seek satellite holdings — sectors, themes and factors. But Core3 is designed to do the first job well: core crypto market beta, with staking and active management built in.

gsretps.io/etf/beso

Andy Baehr, managing director, Asset Management at GSR *

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Ask an Expert

Q. How is digital asset investing and trading different from traditional assets?

The biggest practical difference is that everything happens on the blockchain. Holdings, transactions, strategies, even the behaviour of a protocol over time, all of it is visible. Anyone with a wallet address and a block explorer can see what you own and what you have done. That is a level of transparency traditional markets simply do not offer. This changes the information environment clients/users are operating in.

The second difference is that price discovery runs 24/7, which means volatility never takes a break either. Then there is self-custody. In traditional finance, custody is someone else’s problem and quite often insured. In digital assets, it’s going to be your problem whether you want it or not. That is empowering, because you genuinely own the asset and no intermediary can gate your access to it. It is also more dangerous because the responsibility for keys, backup and operational security falls on the holder. A lost phrase is a permanent loss and it’s one of the reasons people like CZ (Changpeng Zhao, former CEO of Binance) vouch for storing assets on centralized exchanges.

For advisors this means the conversation with clients is broader than allocation because it also covers custody setup, key management and operational risk in a way it never has before.

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Q. How do vaults and onchain finance change the investing vs trading debate?

It is no longer a question of invest versus trade, what I see the market actually debating is which yields are real and which are not. After a few cycles of degen farming, triple-digit APYs and protocols that collapsed, most serious participants have moved on from the question of “how much can I earn” to “how durable is this.”

This is why vaults have been increasing in popularity. A well-designed vault lets capital stay in the market with less manual rotation. So if you deposit into a strategy, and the strategy runs, there is less movement, less clicking, less emotional decision-making. For someone who does not want to trade, that is a clear improvement over what was previously available on-chain, which was mostly either passive holding or active yield farming.

The other important piece is liquidity. A lot of traditional yield products lock your capital up. Private credit funds for example, have redemption windows that run anywhere from a week to a quarter. A vault that issues a liquid token against your deposit gives you something different. Your capital is earning, but you can still move if you need to. That is a real change in how long-term allocations can be structured.

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The path this sets up is yield that is perhaps a bit more boring than what crypto has historically offered, but more sustainable. But at least boring doesn’t get you REKT.

Q. As automated vaults handle the technical ‘trading’ (rebalancing, compounding, liquidating), does an advisor’s value-add shift from ‘picking winners’ to ‘curating risk profiles’?

Yes, and a good one at that.

When the mechanics of a strategy are handled by a smart contract, the execution work is no longer where the advisor adds value. Rebalancing happens automatically and compounding happens automatically. Liquidation triggers run on their own logic where none of it needs a human in the loop.

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What it does need is a human in the loop as the judgment layer on top. Someone has to look at what is actually available in the market, vet it and decide what is worth putting client capital into. That is more of a due diligence question. Who built this vault? What is the strategy doing underneath? What are the custody arrangements? How has it performed in stress? Is the team credible? Is the audit credible? What happens if a dependency breaks?

You then take the risk appetite of the client and adapt it to the risks the available vaults actually carry. A conservative client might want a tokenized Treasury vault and a stablecoin yield vault. A more adventurous client might accept a DeFi yield vault or an FX strategy vault. Curating risk is human in the loop work.

Patrick Velleman, chief marketing officer, Valdora CMO


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* Risk Disclosure

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Investors should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses carefully before investing. For a prospectus or summary prospectus with this and other information about the Fund, please call 888-999-5958 or visit our website at gsretps.io/etf/beso. Read the prospectus or summary prospectus carefully before investing.‍Investments involve risk. Principal loss is possible.

‍Crypto Currency Risk (Bitcoin (“BTC”), Ether (“ETH”), and Solana (“SOL”) (together, the “Reference Assets”)). The Reference Assets are relatively new innovations and are subject to unique and substantial risks. Crypto currencies are a subset of digital assets, representing blockchain-based tokens that function primarily as mediums of exchange, stores of value, or units of account, whereas digital assets more broadly include any electronically represented asset with economic value, such as tokens, stablecoins, and other distributed-ledger-based instruments.‍Digital Assets/Cryptocurrency Market Volatility Risk. The prices of the Reference Assets have historically been highly volatile. The value of the Fund’s exposure to the Reference Assets—and therefore the value of an investment in the Fund—could decline significantly and without warning, including to zero.


Market Beta Risk. The Fund seeks to provide core exposure to the cryptocurrency market (‘market beta’) through allocations to BTC, ETH, and SOL. As a result, the Fund’s performance may be significantly influenced by overall digital asset market movements, and the Fund may decline in value when the broader cryptocurrency market declines. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and subject to rapid changes.Staking and Validator Risk. When the Fund stakes Reference Assets that utilize proof-of-stake consensus (currently, Ethereum and Solana), the assets are subject to risks attendant to staking generally, such as illiquidity, reliance on third-party service providers, slashing, missed rewards, validator problems, and errors. Staking is the process of putting digital assets to work on a blockchain network to receive rewards and enhance protocol security. By helping the blockchain run more smoothly and securely, rewards are earned in the native blockchain token. Potential staking rewards are earned by the Trust and not issued directly to investors. ‍Liquidity Risk. Unbonding periods for staked Reference Assets may range from several days to several weeks depending on network conditions.
Concentration Risk. The Fund’s assets will be concentrated in the sector or sectors or industry or group of industries that are assigned to the Reference Assets, which will subject the Fund to the risk that economic, political or other conditions that have a negative effect on those sectors and/or industries may negatively impact the Fund to a greater extent than if the Fund’s assets were invested in a wider variety of sectors or industries.
Foreign Securities Risk. To the extent the Fund invests in foreign securities they may be subject to additional risks not typically associated with investments in domestic securities.‍Indirect Investment Risk. None of the Reference ETFs or the Reference Assets are affiliated with the Trust, the Adviser, or any affiliates thereof and is not involved with this offering in any way, and has no obligation to consider the Fund in taking any corporate actions that might affect the value of the Fund.‍New Fund Risk. The Fund is a recently organized management investment company with no operating history. As a result, prospective investors do not have a track record or history on which to base their investment decisions.‍Non-Diversification Risk. Because the Fund is non-diversified, it may invest a greater percentage of its assets in the securities of a single issuer or a smaller number of issuers than if it was a diversified fund.

Foreside Fund Services, LLC (the “Distributor”)

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Solana Infrastructure, Stablecoins and Institutional Crypto Expansion Take Center Stage

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Crypto Breaking News

Day 2 of Consensus 2026 continued the conference’s strong focus on institutional crypto adoption, stablecoin infrastructure, blockchain payments, and next-generation financial systems, with major announcements involving Solana, Celo, USDC, prediction markets, and cross-border payment platforms.

The event featured appearances and discussions from major industry figures including Kevin O’Leary, Charles Hoskinson, Kirsten Gillibrand, Michael Saylor, and executives from leading blockchain and financial technology companies.

Solana Infrastructure Expansion Targets Institutional Growth in Asia

One of the day’s biggest announcements came from the Jito Foundation and Solana Company, which revealed a strategic partnership focused on expanding institutional-grade Solana infrastructure across the Asia-Pacific region.

The collaboration aims to strengthen validator infrastructure, improve yield optimisation systems, and accelerate institutional adoption of the Solana ecosystem among enterprise and financial players in APAC markets.

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The move reflects growing interest in scalable blockchain infrastructure designed specifically for institutional participation.

Stablecoins Continue Dominating Infrastructure Discussions

Stablecoins remained one of the dominant themes throughout Day 2.

Celo announced a new integration with Bridge, the Stripe-owned stablecoin orchestration platform, bringing one of crypto’s most active payment-focused ecosystems into broader global payment infrastructure.

According to the announcement, Celo has processed more than 1.28 billion lifetime transactions and supports over 600,000 daily active users.

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Meanwhile, GalaxyOne revealed support for USDC deposits, highlighting the increasing importance of stablecoins for global wealth management and digital asset transfers operating outside traditional banking hours.

Several speakers throughout the event pointed to stablecoins as one of the clearest real-world use cases currently driving mainstream blockchain adoption.

Prediction Markets and Onchain Lending Gain Momentum

Prediction markets also emerged as a growing category during the conference.

Shift Markets introduced a new white-label prediction markets platform designed to help operators launch event-based trading markets under their own brands.

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The sector has seen rapid growth over the past year as blockchain-based prediction platforms expand into politics, macroeconomics, sports, and financial markets.

Elsewhere, Textile and Celo announced plans for a new emerging markets lending platform leveraging stablecoins and onchain credit infrastructure to improve access to financing in underserved global regions.

Crypto Industry Pushes Toward Real-World Financial Infrastructure

Another notable announcement came from Notabene, which launched a new post-settlement transaction management layer called “Revert,” aimed at solving one of crypto’s long-standing operational challenges: safely reversing or coordinating returns of funds after blockchain transactions settle.

The announcement reflects broader industry efforts to build compliance-friendly infrastructure capable of supporting regulated institutions and enterprise-scale digital asset operations.

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Across the conference, the recurring theme remained clear: the industry is increasingly moving beyond speculation and toward building scalable financial infrastructure around payments, stablecoins, custody, lending, and institutional blockchain services.

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John Bollinger’s Model for Bitcoin (BTC) Turns Positive: Price Explosion Incoming?

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The primary cryptocurrency has posted a 6% price increase over the past week, and now many analysts believe a further ascent could be on the way.

However, a number of warning signs suggest a short-term correction remains just as plausible.

Climbing Towards New Peaks?

Bitcoin has been gradually rising over the last several days, briefly touching $83,000 on May 6 before reversing to the current $81,000 (according to CoinGecko). Its resurgence comes on the back of a broader market revival triggered by the recent peace talks between the USA and Iran, among other factors.

Numerous industry participants are optimistic that BTC’s rally is nowhere near its end, with John Bollinger joining the discussion. The legendary technical analyst revealed that his fund’s “Tactica” program has opened a new position and is now “fully invested” in the cryptocurrency after the trend model turned positive.

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This method is used at Bollinger Capital Management as a systematic allocation tool, automatically adjusting the entity’s exposure based on predefined signals.

The analyst is better known for developing the Bollinger Bands indicator, which consists of a moving average with an upper and lower band that expand and contract based on market turbulence. Some X users noted that, towards the end of April, these channels squeezed as never before on a monthly basis, which is usually a precursor to a big price swing.

Other market observers who have touched upon BTC’s performance lately include CW and Aman. The former argued that the asset has begun “a full-cycle rise after completing a retest following a convergence breakout.”

“The downtrend has ended, and a new uptrend is ongoing,” they added.

For their part, Aman wondered if BTC is ready to “vaporize” the $86K wall. The analyst claimed that the price has entered a specific zone where the big players will decide the trend.

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The Biggest Bull Trap?

It is important to note that some industry participants expect the recent upswing to be abruptly replaced by a major pullback. X user Chiefy, for instance, described the current development as “the biggest Bitcoin bull trap of this cycle,” envisioning a collapse to as low as $42,000.

At the same time, the asset’s social sentiment has jumped sharply, with Santiment showing a 1.37 bullish versus 1.00 bearish ratio – the most optimistic reading in nearly four months. While this surge in confidence highlights growing trader enthusiasm, it can actually be a bearish sign, as the crypto market tends to move against the crowd’s expectations.

The ratio of leveraged positions also displays the reigning optimism among market participants, which could serve as another warning signal. According to X user Ted, longs have outnumbered shorts by about 11 to 1.

The post John Bollinger’s Model for Bitcoin (BTC) Turns Positive: Price Explosion Incoming? appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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Aave rewrites the rulebook for asset listings after $293 million exploit

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Aave rewrites the rulebook for asset listings after $293 million exploit

Miami — Aave Labs is set to fundamentally reshape how it assesses and lists collateral assets on its protocol, following the largest DeFi exploit of 2026, and the overhaul could set a new standard across the entire industry.

Linda Jeng, chief legal and policy officer at Aave Labs, said at Consensus Miami 2026 that the protocol’s existing risk framework, while robust, had been too narrowly focused on financial risk and volatility.

Going forward, every asset seeking to be listed on Aave will face a broader assessment covering interoperability, cybersecurity vulnerabilities, and the underlying architecture of the asset. She cited rsETH, the restaking token issued by KelpDAO that sat at the center of April’s crisis, as the catalyst for the change.

Beyond the new assessment criteria, Jeng announced that Aave would publish a formal playbook for asset issuers — a set of minimum standards that projects must meet before they can list on the protocol. She also said Aave would begin examining systemic interconnections across protocols, moving away from analyzing pools in isolation to understanding how exposure in one corner of DeFi can ripple into another.

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“Out of a crisis like this, it ups our standards,” she said.

The remarks came as Jeng reflected on a month she described as “two weeks of no sleep.” An attacker had exploited KelpDAO’s cross-chain bridge, minting 116,500 unbacked rsETH tokens worth roughly $293 million, then depositing them into Aave as collateral to borrow real wrapped ether — leaving the protocol holding hundreds of millions in impaired debt.

Jeng, who worked as a regulator during the 2008 financial crisis, said the episode triggered a strong sense of déjà vu. But the resolution, she argued, was markedly different. Rather than a government-led bailout, the industry mobilized itself. An initiative called “DeFi United,” which has drawn commitments from Lido, EtherFi, Ethena and others, was launched to cover the collateral shortfall and prevent systemic bad debt from spreading further across DeFi lending markets.

“In the financial crisis, we had to bail out the banks,” she said. “Here, we came together as an ecosystem to bail ourselves out.”

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VanEck’s Sigel Projects Bitcoin to Hit $1M in Five Years

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Bitcoin can be worth a lot more than today, according to a prominent crypto strategist at VanEck. Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research, told CNBC that Bitcoin could hit seven figures within the next five years, with a longer-term model projecting as high as $2.9 million by 2050. The comments underscore a shifting narrative: while the asset remains volatile, a growing chorus of institutional researchers portrays Bitcoin as a mega-trend with a multi-decade adoption arc.

Sigel framed his outlook as the base case for Bitcoin, arguing that the asset’s trajectory will mirror its broader integration into financial and corporate strategy rather than a straight-line ascent. In a discussion on CNBC’s Halftime Report, he said: “Bitcoin going up for us is the base case. We think this asset is going to reach a million dollars over the next several years.” He later clarified that the milestone could arrive in “half a decade,” drawing a parallel to a gradual expansion of video game adoption across age groups—an analogy meant to capture mainstreaming rather than a sudden leap.

His time horizon aligns with VanEck’s base-case long-term model, which envisions Bitcoin scaling to as much as $2.9 million by 2050. The fund house frames this as a probabilistic outcome that reflects a deepening allocation by institutions and sovereign actors over time, even as shorter-term volatility remains a defining feature of the market.

Key takeaways

  • VanEck’s base-case: Bitcoin could reach $1 million within five years, with a $2.9 million target in the longer term (2050).
  • Long-horizon bull thesis sees Bitcoin as a megatrend increasingly influenced by formal reserve-style adoption, including a potential central-bank bid.
  • Near term, Bitcoin remains highly cyclical and volatile, with price action likely to reflect macro cycles rather than a steady ascent.
  • Current market positioning appears fragile, as Sigel notes that the rally has not shown froth in derivatives and seems driven by short covering rather than widespread enthusiasm.
  • Broader consensus among prominent investors is mixed, with several high-profile forecasters crafting ambitious long-run targets while skeptics flag scalability and regulatory risks.

Bitcoin’s megatrend vs. the daily drumbeat of cycles

Sigel framed Bitcoin as a “very cyclical asset” that will not move in a straight line to a million dollars. The absence of a central authority to cushion downturns, he suggested, means that drawdowns and rallies will occur in waves. Yet, the argument for a longer-term transformation remains compelling to him, particularly if Bitcoin begins to enter mainstream financial systems as a reserve-like asset for some institutions or even official balance sheets.

Near-term positioning and macro drivers

Looking at the immediate backdrop, Sigel pointed to Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq as a sign that macroeconomic forces are currently shaping price action. The indicator, he noted, has risen to its highest level in about five years, suggesting the market’s trajectory is closely tied to broader risk-on or risk-off cycles rather than idiosyncratic crypto-driven moves alone.

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Not everyone is convinced, however. Some prominent voices have urged caution on Bitcoin’s scalability and the risk that it may struggle to displace traditional safe-haven assets in the face of regulatory and sovereign currency risks. For instance, Ray Dalio has acknowledged Bitcoin as a possible store of value but has questioned its capacity to serve as a global reserve asset. Critics like Peter Schiff have argued that Bitcoin lacks intrinsic value and may not supplant gold as a hedge, tempering seven-figure forecasts with questions about real-world utility and governance.

What the wider market is watching

The debate over Bitcoin’s price trajectory reflects a broader tension in the crypto space: a mix of aggressive long-run forecasts anchored in growing institutional adoption and more cautious calls that emphasize regulatory risk, scalability concerns, and competition from alternative assets. In that context, the idea of Bitcoin entering a multi-decade growth phase—driven by reserve-like demand from institutions and possibly sovereign adopters—remains a compelling narrative for many investors, even if timing and pace remain uncertain.

Beyond price targets, analysts point to several milestones that could influence the trajectory in the coming years. These include clearer regulatory frameworks, improved on-chain scalability and infrastructure, the emergence of more asset-class-native products (such as regulated futures, ETFs, and custody solutions), and measurable increases in real-world usage—not merely speculative trading activity. Each development could alter the risk-reward calculus for institutions and retail participants alike.

For readers seeking additional context, the discussion around Bitcoin’s long-run potential is frequently linked to broader market commentary and independent research. Commentary from outlets like Cointelegraph, discussions around ARK Invest’s projections, and cross-industry observations help paint a fuller picture of where the crypto market may be headed as it negotiates regulatory, technological, and macroeconomic headwinds.

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In short, the near term may remain challenging, but the longer-term thesis remains intact for many observers who view Bitcoin as a structural shift in how value is stored and transferred globally. The coming years will reveal whether the secular trend converges with a more favorable macro environment and a steadier path to widespread institutional involvement.

Readers should watch for signals of genuine reserve-like demand entering official balance sheets, regulatory developments that clarify safe-harbor pathways for institutions, and real-world use-case expansion that moves beyond speculative trading to utility and liquidity provision in both traditional and digital financial ecosystems.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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South Korea Confirms 22% Crypto Tax Goes Ahead in January 2027

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South Korea Confirms 22% Crypto Tax Goes Ahead in January 2027

South Korea’s Finance Ministry has confirmed that a long-delayed tax on crypto gains will take effect as scheduled in January 2027.

Moon Kyung-ho, director of the ministry’s income tax division, announced at an emergency parliamentary forum on virtual asset taxation held at the National Assembly Members’ Office Building in Seoul on Thursday, according to South Korea news outlet Edaily. The forum was hosted by Representative Park Soo-young of the People Power Party and the Korea Tax Policy Association.

“We will proceed with virtual asset taxation as scheduled in January next year,” Moon said in what appears to be the first public confirmation from the ministry that the crypto tax framework will move forward after multiple postponements.

Under the current Income Tax Act, profits generated through the transfer or lending of virtual assets will be categorized as “other income” beginning Jan. 1, 2027. Investors earning more than 2.5 million Korean won ($1,800) annually from crypto activities will face a 22% tax, including a 20% income tax and 2% local tax. The rule applies to an estimated 13.26 million investors.

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Related: Bithumb wins temporary court stay on South Korea suspension: Report

South Korea prepares tax guidance

Moon said the National Tax Service is currently finalizing guidance on the new system and has held several working-level meetings with South Korea’s five major exchanges, including Dunamu (Upbit), Bithumb, Coinone, Korbit and Gopax, to prepare a draft notice.

He added that the notice would be published for legislative review during 2026. Speaking to reporters after the forum, Moon walked back his use of the word “soon,” clarifying that the notice would arrive sometime this year, not imminently.

Moon Kyung-ho at the National Assembly Members’ Office Building in Yeouido, Seoul. Source: Edaily.

South Korean regulators have delayed the crypto tax twice before, pushing the start date from 2025 to 2027 amid political disagreement and industry pushback over exchange readiness and the threshold level. More recently, the ruling People Power Party proposed a bill to scrap the tax altogether before its 2027 rollout.

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Related: Samsung SDS wins deal to build South Korea’s blockchain securities system: Report

South Korea’s crypto industry pushes back on AML rules

As Cointelegraph reported, proposed changes to South Korea’s anti-money laundering (AML) rules have drawn sharp criticism from the country’s crypto industry. DAXA, an industry body representing 27 registered virtual asset service providers, warned that requiring exchanges to flag all overseas-linked transfers of 10 million won or more as suspicious would increase reported cases by 85 times, from around 63,000 last year to over 5.4 million, making compliance unworkable in practice.

The Financial Services Commission and Financial Intelligence Unit proposed the amendments on March 30, with a public comment period running through May 11 and final rules expected in July.

Magazine: South Korea gets rich from crypto… North Korea gets weapons

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