Dominic Barton

Good afternoon to everyone here in Perth, and good morning to all of those joining us from London, and welcome also if you are tuning in virtually. As Chair of Rio Tinto, I have the privilege of welcoming you to our 2026 Annual General Meetings. This year, in keeping with our focus of embedding stronger, sharper and simpler ways of working across the business, we are holding the Rio Tinto plc and the Rio Tinto Limited AGMs contemporaneously.

Our meetings are linked audiovisually, so all shareholders can participate in a joint discussion as provided for under Rio Tinto plc’s Articles of Association and Rio Tinto Limited’s constitution. As you know, AGMs are an opportunity for open conversations and for deepening understanding. They allow us as a Board to hear from you and to respond to the topics you are interested in.

And next year, our directors will be present in person at the plc AGM in London with a limited AGM held contemporaneously in Australia. And we plan to continue this arrangement for future AGMs with our directors alternating their physical attendance annually. This naturally builds on our regular engagement with investors throughout the year. In fact, over the last 2 months, I’ve met personally with shareholders representing more than 1/4 of Rio Tinto plc’s issued capital and 1/3 of Rio Tinto Limited’s issued capital.

By Jim Iuorio

Prior to November 2022, artificial intelligence (AI) was something most people associated with futuristic movies. Then OpenAI released ChatGPT, and everything changed. AI was no longer an invisible algorithm quietly powering the world’s most sophisticated companies. Suddenly, the average person could use it to write code, compose poems, edit articles and much more.

The adoption was staggering. ChatGPT reached 100 million users in just two months, making it the fastest-growing consumer application in history at the time, and it has never looked back. Over the next three years, AI became the single most dominant investment theme on Wall Street, working its way into business models across every sector of the economy.

But is it a good thing? That seems to depend on who you ask.

The general consensus is that powerful emerging technology ultimately benefits society and raises our standard of living. The transition, however, can be rocky. There is a growing perception that AI may already be stifling traditional job growth, as companies slow hiring in anticipation of reducing their need for employees. While that has far-reaching implications across the economy, I want to focus on one area: lending rates and mortgages in particular.

A Housing Market Already Under Stress

The housing market has been a serious concern and a source of heated debate for the past five years. In 2021, the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates to combat sky-high inflation. In roughly one year, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage went from under 3% to well over 7%.

Raising rates to fight inflation is designed to address the problem from the demand side. The theory in housing seems fairly straightforward: if money is more expensive to borrow, buyers will be less aggressive in pursuing new homes.

But that is not quite what happened. Most housing analysts now conclude that raising mortgage rates so dramatically, after such a prolonged period of historic lows, effectively froze the supply of homes that would normally come to market. If someone is sitting on a 3% mortgage, there is little incentive to trade it in for a 7% one. Combined with a decrease in new builds, housing inventory dried up and prices rose even higher.

So Where Do Mortgage Rates Come From?

Before exploring how AI might affect mortgage rates, it helps to understand what drives them in the first place.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage is actually held for about 12 years. Because of that, mortgage rates closely track the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, which is the nearest matching maturity. Historically, the spread between the 10-year yield and the 30-year fixed mortgage rate averages around 180 basis points. In plain terms, if the 10-year Treasury yield is sitting at 4%, one would expect the 30-year fixed rate to be somewhere around 5.8%.

That spread exists for two reasons. First, a mortgage carries default risk that a U.S. Treasury bond simply does not. Second, there are real servicing and administrative costs baked into every mortgage. AI could potentially affect both the Treasury yield side of the equation and the factors that create the spread. Here are a few potential ways those scenarios might play out.

Scenario 1: AI Sparks Deflation, Rates Fall

If the biggest economic impact of AI turns out to be massive productivity gains spread across most sectors of the economy, the effect could be deflationary. We saw something similar play out in the 1990s with the internet. Many economists give Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker full credit for reducing inflation in the early 1980s, but a compelling case can be made that the maturation of the internet was a significant deflationary force in its own right.

It is also worth noting that slower job growth, one of the more visible side effects of AI adoption, would likely further dampen consumer spending and add another layer of downward pressure on prices. Disinflation (where prices rise, but slowly) or outright deflation (where prices decline) makes owning long-duration bonds more attractive, which pushes yields lower. History also tells us that the Fed tends to cut short-term rates when disinflation becomes a concern, pulling yields lower across the entire curve. The end result of this scenario would likely be meaningfully lower mortgage rates.

Scenario 2: AI Fuels a Boom, Rates Rise

Alternatively, the AI revolution could ignite a massive domestic economic expansion. In that environment, investment money might flow out of the relative safety of U.S. Treasuries and into higher-returning opportunities in the market. That rotation could push bond prices down and yields up. If the economic boom also generates demand-driven inflation, it would only accelerate the selling pressure on bonds. In this scenario, mortgage rates could move higher.

Scenario 3: AI Compresses the Spread

This scenario gets less attention but may be the most interesting. Even if Treasury yields stay right where they are, AI could narrow the spread between the 10-year yield and the 30-year fixed mortgage rate.

It is possible that AI will improve risk assessment while simultaneously reducing the servicing and administrative costs embedded in the mortgage process. If one assumes that 30% to 50% of that 180 basis point spread is administrative in nature, cutting those costs in half with AI would not be a trivial result. Borrowers could see meaningfully lower rates even in a flat-rate environment, simply because the cost of originating and managing a mortgage comes down.

Where the Evidence Points

No one can say with certainty which of these scenarios will dominate, and it is entirely possible that elements of all three play out simultaneously. However, many analysts seem to believe the weight of evidence points toward lower rates.

For market participants looking to manage this uncertainty, Mortgage Rate futures offer a way to hedge mortgage servicing rights and pipeline risk that can be associated with a changing rate environment. The contract is based on the Optimal Blue Mortgage Market Index, which tracks real-time rate lock data from over one-third of U.S. residential mortgage originations.

The combination of AI-driven productivity gains, the deflationary pressure of a slower labor market and the prospect of leaner mortgage operations creates a compelling case that mortgage rates are more likely to fall than rise over the coming years. For prospective homebuyers who have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for relief, that may finally be the light at the end of a very long tunnel.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Original Post

By Jennifer Nash

The S&P 500 capped the week off with another record high, flirting with the 7,400 milestone. With a 2.3% weekly gain, the index has now climbed for six consecutive weeks, matching its longest winning streak since October

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Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Grupo Cibest Bancolombia First Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Paul, and I will be your operator for today’s call. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded.

Please note that this conference call will include forward-looking statements, including statements related to our future performance, capital position, credit-related expenses and credit losses. All forward-looking statements whether made in this conference call and future filings and press releases or verbally, address matters that involve risks and uncertainties. Consequently, there are factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those indicated in such statements, including changes in general economic and business conditions, changes in currency exchange rates and interest rates. Introduction of competing products by other companies, lack of acceptance of new products or services by our targeted clients, changes in business strategy and various other factors that we describe in our reports filed with the SEC.

With us today is Mr. Juan Carlos Mora, Chief Executive Officer; Mr. Mauricio Botero Wolff, Chief Strategy and Financial Officer; Mr. Rodrigo Prieto, Chief Risk Officer; Mrs. Catalina Tobon, Investor Relations and Capital Markets Director; and Mrs. Laura Clavijo, Chief Economist.

I will now turn the call over to Mr. Juan Carlos Mora, Chief

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