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380 Buildings Below 60% Capacity as Enrollment Plunges Toward Historic Lows

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Visitors at the Statue of Liberty

NEW YORK — Nearly one-quarter of New York City’s public schools are operating well below capacity, with 380 buildings — out of roughly 1,600 — running at less than 60 percent utilization this school year, according to a new analysis that spotlights the deepening enrollment crisis gripping the nation’s largest school district.

The startling figure, released by the Citizens Budget Commission, arrives as city officials project another sharp drop in student numbers. Public school enrollment currently stands around 884,400 students, down significantly from pre-pandemic levels, and forecasts warn of a further loss of up to 153,000 students over the next decade. The combination of underused buildings, fixed costs and ambitious class-size reduction mandates is forcing difficult conversations about budgets, consolidations and the future of neighborhood schools.

“This is not sustainable,” said one education budget analyst. “You cannot continue funding buildings designed for far more students than they currently serve while pouring hundreds of millions into lowering class sizes elsewhere.” The mismatch creates both inefficiency in some neighborhoods and overcrowding pressure in others.

Roots of the Enrollment Decline

Multiple factors drive the shrinking student population. Birth rates in New York City have fallen sharply since the COVID-19 pandemic, with roughly 25,000 fewer births annually compared to pre-pandemic figures. Families with young children continue to leave the city for more affordable suburbs or other states, drawn by remote work flexibility and lower housing costs. Charter school growth and homeschooling have also siphoned students from traditional public schools.

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The School Construction Authority’s latest demographic projections paint a sobering picture. By 2034-35, enrollment could fall to approximately 721,000 students in grades K-12, a loss of more than 150,000 from recent levels. Declines are expected across all boroughs, with Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx facing the steepest drops.

Early grades show the most dramatic shrinkage. Pre-kindergarten and kindergarten applications have plummeted, signaling that the pipeline of future students is narrowing. This trend compounds existing challenges in a system still recovering from pandemic-era learning disruptions.

Underutilized Schools Strain Budgets

The 380 schools below 60 percent capacity represent a significant fiscal burden. Many still require minimum staffing levels — principals, assistant principals, nurses and other personnel — dictated by union contracts and regulations, regardless of enrollment. Tiny schools with fewer than 150 students face particularly acute per-pupil cost spikes.

This year, 112 schools are projected to enroll under 150 students. That number is expected to rise to 134 next school year. These micro-schools collectively carry hundreds of millions in annual budgets while serving relatively few children, diverting resources from academic support, mental health services and facility maintenance.

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Meanwhile, the city presses forward with a state-mandated class size reduction plan. New York law requires gradual caps — aiming for most classes at 20-25 students by 2027-28 — with interim targets. The system recently surpassed 60 percent compliance and eyes 80 percent next year, at a projected cost of over $1 billion annually in additional teachers and space modifications.

Critics argue the policy exacerbates inefficiencies. Funds flow to hire more staff in already compliant or low-enrollment schools while some buildings sit half-empty. Officials have explored repurposing space, but community resistance to mergers or closures remains fierce.

Political and Community Pushback

Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s administration has prioritized education spending, allocating record sums in the latest budget for class-size efforts, pre-K and mental health. Yet fiscal watchdogs urge tying funding more closely to actual enrollment, accelerating consolidations and pausing new construction in declining areas.

Parents in affected neighborhoods often fight to keep schools open, viewing them as vital community anchors. Past closure attempts have sparked protests, lawsuits and political backlash. Recent proposals on the Upper West Side and in Brooklyn ignited debates over equity, with families arguing that shuttering schools in lower-income areas disproportionately harms vulnerable students.

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Education advocates acknowledge the tension. While small schools can offer personalized attention, extremely low enrollment limits course offerings, extracurriculars and specialized support. Larger, efficiently run schools often provide broader opportunities.

Potential Solutions and Trade-offs

Experts propose several paths forward. Strategic mergers could combine under-enrolled schools, preserving jobs while creating more robust programs. Repurposing excess space for community centers, early childhood programs or charter co-locations offers another option. Some suggest incentivizing families to fill seats through improved academics and safety measures.

Budget alignment represents the biggest lever. Shifting to a weighted student funding model — where dollars follow children more directly — could encourage efficiency without abrupt closures. The city could also revisit class-size mandates in light of demographic reality, seeking flexibility from Albany.

Longer term, addressing root causes like housing affordability, family support services and economic vitality could help stabilize enrollment. Without broader population recovery, however, the system must adapt to a smaller footprint.

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Looking Ahead

As the 2026-27 school year approaches, with a later September start date, decisions on consolidations and budgets will intensify. The Department of Education faces pressure to balance fiscal responsibility with educational quality and community needs.

The 380 under-capacity schools symbolize a larger reckoning for urban education nationwide. Cities from Chicago to San Francisco grapple with similar declines. New York’s scale makes its choices particularly consequential.

For now, the empty desks and echoing hallways in hundreds of buildings underscore an uncomfortable truth: the city built for a million students must now thoughtfully right-size for far fewer while protecting outcomes for those who remain. How leaders navigate this transition will shape New York’s neighborhoods and the futures of its children for decades to come.

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At Close of Business podcast May 15 2026

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At Close of Business podcast May 15 2026

Claire Tyrrell speaks to Ella Loneragan about the state of major projects in South Perth, as development times ramp up.

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UK borrowing costs rise and pound falls as leadership drama continues

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UK borrowing costs rise and pound falls as leadership drama continues

“Overall, UK politics is a mess, there are already signs that foreign buyers are ditching the gilt market. If there is a major rout in the pound and/or gilts in the coming days, prospective candidates may need to assess whether now was a wise time to make a move against the PM,” she said.

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Intuitive Machines Set To Launch In The Space Race

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Intuitive Machines Set To Launch In The Space Race

Intuitive Machines Set To Launch In The Space Race

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Hargreave Hale AIM VCT allots 105,364 shares at 33.55p

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Hargreave Hale AIM VCT allots 105,364 shares at 33.55p

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Zelenskiy condemns Russia after strike on Kyiv apartment block kills 24

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Zelenskiy condemns Russia after strike on Kyiv apartment block kills 24


Zelenskiy condemns Russia after strike on Kyiv apartment block kills 24

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Vodafone appoints Olaf Koch as non-executive director

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Vodafone appoints Olaf Koch as non-executive director

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How China may have made lifelong teetotaler Trump sip alcohol

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How China may have made lifelong teetotaler Trump sip alcohol
US President Donald Trump, who has long claimed he has never consumed alcohol in his life, may have briefly broken his sobriety during his visit to China. A video from the trip has gone viral online, appearing to show Trump raising a glass of wine during a toast and taking a sip.

“Trump has never had alcohol in his life. China gave him a beverage to toast, and Trump drank it. This is a very subtle, but STRONG statement on who’s really in charge,” claimed one viral social media post.

According to the Asian Business Daily, “During the proceedings, President Trump was seen raising his glass containing the toasting wine and bringing it to his lips, appearing to take a sip. He then handed the glass to a staff member, and cameras caught him seemingly holding the wine in his mouth for a moment before swallowing.”

Trump has repeatedly said he has never consumed alcohol — a rare claim among modern US presidents.

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“I’ve never had a drink,” Trump told Fox News after his election victory in 2017.
According to the BBC, Trump’s decision to avoid alcohol stems from the death of his older brother, Freddie Trump, who died at the age of 42 from complications related to alcoholism.
Trump has also reportedly advised his children to stay away from drugs, alcohol and cigarettes.
However, Bruce LeVell, a former Trump adviser and former White House small business advocate, dismissed the viral speculation in a post on X, saying, “It’s not alcohol, and I speak for the President.”

In another post, he added, “President Trump does not drink or do drugs. You want a president like that.”

Trump was on an official visit to China on an invitation from Chinese president Xi Jinping. It was the first visit to China by a US president in nine years.

What happened during Trump’s China visit

Trump departed China on Friday while highlighting several business agreements reached during the trip, even as Beijing warned Washington against mishandling the sensitive Taiwan issue and criticised the Iran war.

“We’ve settled a lot of different problems that other people wouldn’t have been able to solve,” Trump said after meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on the second day of talks.

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The discussions reportedly covered the Iran conflict, Taiwan, trade ties and other major geopolitical issues. While Xi did not publicly comment on his talks with Trump regarding Iran, China’s foreign ministry later issued a strong statement expressing frustration over the conflict.

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3M: Iran Conflict And Inflationary Pressure Could Derail The Recovery (NYSE:MMM)

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3M: Iran Conflict And Inflationary Pressure Could Derail The Recovery (NYSE:MMM)

This article was written by

I’ve been researching companies in-depth for over a decade, from commodities like oil, natural gas, gold and copper to tech like Google or Nokia and many emerging market stocks, which I believe could help me provide useful content for readers. After writing my own blog for about 3 years, I decided to switch to a value investing-focused YouTube channel, where I researched hundreds of different companies so far. I would say my favorite type of company to cover are metals and mining stocks, but I am comfortable with several other industries, such as consumer discretionary/staples, REITs and utilities.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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AI HBM Leader Edges Samsung in Best Stock Buy

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South Korea is home to the world's largest memory chip maker Samsung, and largest memory chip supplier SK Hynix

SEOUL — Investors weighing Samsung Electronics against SK Hynix for 2026 portfolios face a classic choice between diversified stability and pure-play AI growth as the global memory-chip supercycle intensifies. SK Hynix has surged ahead in high-bandwidth memory leadership and profitability, while Samsung leverages its vast resources to close the gap and offers broader exposure across semiconductors, smartphones and consumer electronics.

Both South Korean giants posted record first-quarter 2026 results driven by explosive demand for AI servers, but analysts give SK Hynix a slight edge for investors seeking maximum upside from the HBM boom. SK Hynix commands roughly 54 percent of the global HBM market and secured about 70 percent of NVIDIA’s HBM4 orders for the Vera Rubin platform, with its entire 2026 chip supply already sold out in key categories. Samsung, traditionally the larger player in conventional DRAM and NAND, is pouring more than $73 billion into chip expansion this year to regain ground.

The memory supercycle shows no signs of slowing. Surging AI infrastructure spending has pushed DRAM and NAND prices higher, with some server memory categories up more than 60 percent since late 2025. SK Hynix reported operating margins near 72 percent in Q1, while Samsung’s memory division approached similar levels despite broader business losses in foundry and system LSI.

SK Hynix: Pure AI Play with Explosive Momentum

SK Hynix stands out as the clearer beneficiary of the AI tailwind. Its focus on high-margin HBM products, critical for training and running large language models, has translated into record profits. The company’s operating profit in recent quarters has outpaced Samsung’s memory segment, with analysts forecasting continued dominance through 2027 as HBM4 shipments ramp.

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Investors benefit from SK Hynix’s tight alignment with NVIDIA and other hyperscalers. The firm’s technological edge in stacking and thermal management gives it pricing power and near-term market share gains. Shares have responded with strong year-to-date gains, though valuations reflect the premium for leadership.

Risks remain. SK Hynix’s heavy concentration in memory leaves it more exposed to any slowdown in AI spending. Geopolitical tensions around its China facilities and potential U.S. export restrictions on advanced chips could also weigh on operations.

Samsung: Diversified Giant with Catch-Up Potential

Samsung offers a more balanced risk-reward profile. While lagging in HBM, the company is accelerating investments and has already raised prices on key chips by up to 60 percent. Its foundry, mobile and consumer electronics businesses provide natural hedges against memory cyclicality.

The conglomerate’s scale allows it to fund aggressive R&D and capacity expansion without the same financing constraints faced by pure-play competitors. Samsung’s upcoming HBM4 products and planned early deliveries could narrow the gap with SK Hynix by late 2026. Analysts highlight its long-term ability to leverage synergies across the value chain.

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However, near-term challenges persist. Labor union tensions at Samsung’s key Pyeongtaek campus — which produces half of global DRAM and vital HBM — threaten production if strikes materialize in May and June. The company also carries higher exposure to cyclical consumer markets compared with SK Hynix.

Analyst Consensus and Valuation Comparison

Wall Street remains bullish on both. Samsung carries a Strong Buy consensus from 37 analysts with an average 12-month price target around KRW 274,000. SK Hynix earns similar enthusiasm, with many firms citing its HBM leadership as justification for a premium multiple.

Valuations reflect differing stories: SK Hynix trades at a higher forward price-to-earnings multiple justified by faster growth, while Samsung appears relatively cheaper on a diversified basis. Both offer attractive dividends relative to global tech peers, though SK Hynix’s payout is more modest given reinvestment needs.

Currency movements also matter. The Korean won’s fluctuations against the dollar can amplify or mute returns for international investors. South Korea’s export-driven economy ties both stocks closely to global trade and tech spending.

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Broader Market and Economic Context

The AI memory boom forms part of a larger semiconductor upcycle. Data-center buildouts by hyperscalers continue at record pace, with HBM demand outstripping supply through at least 2027. Traditional DRAM and NAND markets benefit indirectly as customers stockpile ahead of shortages.

South Korea’s semiconductor sector, which both companies dominate, accounts for a massive portion of the KOSPI index. The iShares MSCI South Korea ETF provides convenient bundled exposure, with the pair comprising more than 25 percent of the fund.

Global risks include U.S.-China trade tensions, potential AI spending pauses and commodity price swings. On the positive side, any resolution in Middle East conflicts could ease energy costs and support broader economic growth.

Investment Recommendation for 2026

For growth-oriented investors chasing the purest AI memory exposure, SK Hynix edges out as the stronger 2026 pick. Its technological lead, sold-out capacity and sky-high margins position it to capture disproportionate upside from continued HBM demand.

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Conservative or diversified investors may prefer Samsung for its scale, multiple business lines and potential to close the HBM gap. The stock offers a margin of safety through non-memory revenue streams and remains undervalued relative to growth prospects.

A balanced approach — owning both or using the MSCI South Korea ETF — mitigates single-company risk while capturing the sector tailwind. Dollar-cost averaging and monitoring quarterly results, especially HBM shipment updates and Samsung’s labor situation, will be key.

Neither stock is without volatility. Memory cycles have historically been dramatic, and AI hype could moderate if economic conditions shift. Yet current fundamentals — tight supply, strong pricing and multi-year demand visibility — support an upbeat outlook for both through 2026 and into 2027.

As the AI infrastructure buildout accelerates, the Samsung-SK Hynix duel will remain one of the most watched battles in global tech. Investors who correctly time entry into the memory supercycle could see substantial returns, but thorough research and risk management remain essential in this fast-moving sector.

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BofA reiterates Buy on Alphabet stock ahead of developer event

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BofA reiterates Buy on Alphabet stock ahead of developer event

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