Daily Record Political Editor Paul Hutcheon says the First Minister could undo the progress he has made over the past two years with his opposition to any inquiry.
John Swinney may rue his party’s temporary win in his forever war of opposing an inquiry into the Peter Murrell scandal.
The SNP and the Scottish Greens clubbed together to defeat a plan for Holyrood to look under the bonnet of Murrell’s theft.
Swinney and the Green co-leaders will be pleased, but their victory could be short-lived.
Thwarting a Holyrood probe, which the SNP and Greens would have controlled, could make way for a more troublesome inquiry led by Westminster.
The Scottish Affairs Committee in the Commons is a cautious body and its work rarely hits the headlines.
But the members of the Labour-dominated Committee have an opportunity to make a name for themselves by delving deeper into a crime of huge interest to the public.
Westminster committees also have more power than their Holyrood equivalents.
MPs and witnesses have parliamentary privilege and can say what they want without being pursued through the courts.
Westminster committees also have the power to send for “persons, papers and records”.
Refusing to cooperate, which may be the favoured tactic of the SNP, would look terrible for Swinney.
If the First Minister tried to obstruct the Committee, they could issue a summons for him to appear.
Snubbing this edict could result in Swinney and co being held in contempt of parliament.
Ultimate sanctions for a continued failure to cooperate include fines and imprisonment – although these have proven to be rare.
Swinney wants the first 100 days of his new administration to focus on the cost of living crisis and combating child poverty.
He now faces the prospect of senior members of his party, including himself, dominating the news for refusing to dodge scrutiny on a crook.
The SNP’s attempt at casting Westminster as an illegitimate authority also undermines their broader goal of independence.
Swinney wants to negotiate indyref2 with the next Labour prime minister when Keir Starmer inevitably falls.
But trashing the same parliament and questioning a Committee’s legitimacy, when most of its members were elected by Scots voters, seems an odd strategic move.
Defiance would harden relations between both governments at a time when Swinney needs Westminster to give him an inch on a second referendum.
A Holyrood inquiry, with a remit agreed by the pro-independence parties, could have been tightly focused and completed quickly.
A Westminster probe, comprised of the SNP’s political enemies, could drag on into 2027.
The SNP inherited by Swinney two years ago was a shambles politically and financially.
The party under Nicola Sturgeon and Humza Yousaf had lost trust with the voters and the SNP was punished at the general election.
Swinney regained control and deserved his win on May 7th.
Obstructing an inquiry is a throwback that will remind voters of the bad old days and Swinney needs to get on the front foot.
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