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BTC surely closer to bottom than top as bears celebrate

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BTC surely closer to bottom than top as bears celebrate

With crypto’s multi-month downturn accelerating into a freefall last week, bulls were frantically grasping for technical signals, or maybe yarns about the blowup of some leveraged hedge fund, that might signal a final bottom for this bear market.

Perhaps the ultimate sign of a bottom, though, might be the cheers arising from those who have been faithfully bearish on bitcoin as its price rose from $0 to more than $100,000 over its 16-year lifespan.

Over the years, the Financial Times has surely stood above all traditional publications in its steadfast opposition to bitcoin and crypto. The London paper’s team of truly talented writers has seemingly never wavered from a firm no-coiner stance, and this week was their moment.

“Bitcoin is still about $69,000 too high,” was the headline of a Sunday essay by the FT’s Jemima Kelly that wonderfully summed up Kelly’s and the FT’s general stance over the last decade-plus. [The FT subsequently changed the headline to “$70,000 too high” after bitcoin rose overnight].

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“Ever since its creation, bitcoin has been on a journey that will end, splattered on the ground,” Kelly wrote. “This week has shown us that the supply of ‘greater fools’ that bitcoin relies on is drying up,” she continued. “The fairy tales that have been keeping crypto afloat are turning out to be just that. People are beginning to wake up to the fact that there is no floor in the value of something based on nothing more than thin air.”

Earlier in the week, with the price of bitcoin declining below the $76,000 average cost basis of BTC treasury giant Strategy (MSTR), the FT’s Craig Coben published, “Strategy’s long road to nowhere.”

With the stock already down about 80% from its record high of late 2024, Coben in February 2026 declared, “Management has no safe choices — only different paths to destroying shareholder value … it is hard to see the case for buying into a vehicle that has merely broken even on its investments over five years.”

“Like a gigantic mastodon stuck in La Brea tar pits,” Coben concluded. “Strategy is flailing for a way out.”

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Peter Schiff joins in

With gold — despite a good deal of recent volatility — continuing in a major bull cycle, longtime goldbug and bitcoin critic Peter Schiff was feeling his oats as well.

“According to Michael Saylor, bitcoin is the best-performing asset in the world,” he wrote on Tuesday. “Yet Strategy invested over $54 billion in bitcoin over the past five years, and as of now the company is down about 3% on that investment. I’m sure the losses over the next five years will be much greater!”

“Bitcoin below $76,000, it’s now worth 15 ounces of gold, down 59% from its Nov. 2021 high,” Schiff continued. “Bitcoin is in a long-term bear market priced in gold.”

Other signs

“I refuse to pick bottoms,” once said former hedge fund manager Hugh Hendry. “Monkeys spend all their time picking bottoms.”

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As Hendry noted, it’s probably a good idea not to get too cute timing one’s buys to headlines like those seen in the FT this week. It’s probably fairly safe to say, though, that some sort of bottoming process is underway.

In other news this week that would never appear near tops, it appears that investor interest in Tether is evaporating. With the crypto market still perky late last year, it was reported that the stablecoin issuing giant was in talks to raise $15-$20 billion at as much as a $500 billion valuation.

According to a report in the FT on Tuesday, however, investors appear to be pushing back against that valuation, and capital-raising efforts may only be on the order of about $5 billion.

For its part, Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino told the FT that the original reports of a $15-$20 billion capital raise were a “misconception,” and that Tether had received plenty of interest at that $500 billion valuation.

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Nevertheless, according to the report, investors have privately raised concerns about that lofty valuation. Things are fluid, the report continued, and a crypto rally could quickly change sentiment.

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Crypto World

Franklin Templeton launches crypto division with 250 Digital acquisition

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Franklin Templeton launches crypto division with 250 Digital acquisition

Wall Street asset management giant Franklin Templeton is launching a dedicated cryptocurrency division as it deepens its push into digital assets, anchored by a planned acquisition of crypto investment firm 250 Digital.

The new unit, called Franklin Crypto, will bring together the 250 Digital team and its liquid crypto strategies — previously managed by CoinFund — under one structure aimed at institutional investors, the firm said Wednesday.

Former CoinFund executive Christopher Perkins will lead the division, with Seth Ginns serving as chief investment officer alongside Franklin Templeton digital assets executive Tony Pecore. The group will report to Sandy Kaul, the firm’s head of innovation.

The move builds on Franklin Templeton’s existing digital asset business, which manages about $1.8 billion, and signals a shift toward offering more active crypto investment strategies alongside its current products.

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“This is an exciting addition for Franklin Templeton,” CEO Jenny Johnson said, adding that the deal strengthens the firm’s ability to deliver dedicated crypto expertise to clients globally.

The launch of Franklin Crypto reflects a broader trend among large asset managers that are moving beyond passive exposure, such as exchange-traded funds, toward building in-house capabilities.

Perkins said the effort is aimed at meeting that demand. “Crypto’s institutional moment has arrived,” he said, pointing to growing interest from large investors seeking structured exposure to digital assets.

The transaction also includes an experimental element: part of the consideration will be paid using BENJI tokens, linked to Franklin Templeton’s on-chain U.S. Government Money Fund. The fund uses blockchain infrastructure to process transactions and record ownership.

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That approach suggests early steps toward conducting mergers and acquisitions using tokenized assets, with settlement occurring more directly on blockchain rails.

The acquisition is expected to close in the second quarter of 2026, subject to approvals and other conditions. Financial terms were not disclosed.

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Avalanche (AVAX) gains 4% as index moves higher

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9am CoinDesk 20 Update for 2026-04-01: vertical

CoinDesk Indices presents its daily market update, highlighting the performance of leaders and laggards in the CoinDesk 20 Index.

The CoinDesk 20 is currently trading at 1968.28, up 1.0% (+20.29) since yesterday’s close.

Eighteen of 20 assets is trading higher.

9am CoinDesk 20 Update for 2026-04-01: vertical

Leaders: AVAX (+4.0%) and HBAR (+3.6%).

Laggards: BCH (-2.1%) and BNB (+0.0%).

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The CoinDesk 20 is a broad-based index traded on multiple platforms in several regions globally.

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Bitcoin Breaks 5-Month Losing Streak With $68K March Close: What’s Next?

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Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Markets, BTC Markets, Price Analysis, Market Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) closed March in green, ending the longest monthly losing streak since 2018. Data suggests that the coming months may prove to be profitable for BTC.

Key takeaways:

  • Bitcoin ended March 2% higher, marking the first green monthly close in six months.

  • A similar streak in 2018/2019 led to an over 316% BTC price rebound over five months.

  • Bitcoin price faces stiff resistance at $70,000-$72,000, where key trend lines converge.

Past multi-month downtrends were followed by 300% price gains

Historical price data from CoinGlass confirms Bitcoin printed its first green monthly candle in six months, closing March 2% higher after five straight months of losses.

“This is a massive dose of hopium,” analyst Ash Crypto said in an X post on Wednesday.

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The analyst was referring to a possible shift in momentum, which might lead to a sustained recovery, as seen in previous cycles.

Related: Crypto Fear & Greed Index stuck on ‘extreme fear,’ but is there a silver lining?

The last time this happened was in 2018/2019 when BTC closed February 2019 in green, after six consecutive red months, as shown in the figure below.

This led to a reversal with over 300% returns the following five months, as Bitcoin recovered from the 2018 bear market.

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“Last time BTC dumped 6 months in a row, it pumped the following 5 months in a row that came after!” trader Satoshi Flipper said in a Wednesday post on X.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Markets, BTC Markets, Price Analysis, Market Analysis
Bitcoin monthly percentage returns. Source: CoinGlass

If history repeats itself, the reversal may continue in April, suggesting that BTC price may have bottomed at $60,000.

Bitcoin’s bullish monthly close is a ”catalyst for fresh inflows into early April,” Trader Caleb said, adding:

“April starts with momentum.”

Bitcoin has a well-established tendency for significant price swings in April.

Since 2013, April has been a green month for eight of the past 13 years, with average returns of about 12.2%

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However, Bitcoin also tends to move in the opposite direction to March in April, and this is true for nine out of the past 13 years. 

In recent years, Bitcoin dropped in April after closing March in green, three out of four times between 2021 and 2024. 

Therefore, while the end of past multi-month drawdowns suggests a rebound is due, data demonstrates that BTC price could also slide in April.

Watch these Bitcoin price levels next

Data from TradingView shows BTC price up 2.5% on the day to trade at $68,470 as the $69,000-$70,000 resistance remains in place.

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Analysts expect Bitcoin’s range-bound price action to continue for longer, with important price levels to look for in case of a breakout. 

These include the $70,000-$72,000 supply zone, coinciding with the 50-day simple moving average (SMA), the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the 1w–1m cohort cost basis

This is also where investors acquired approximately 650,000 BTC, marking a potential point of sell pressure, according to the cost-basis distribution data from Glassnode.

Breaking above this level could see BTC/USD revisit the $76,000 range high and eventually the $80,000 psychological level.

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BTC/USD daily chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Zooming out, trader Sheldon Diedericks said Bitcoin could “push into resistance” at $83,000 on the monthly time frame, a key support level from April 2025. The 200-day EMA is also close to this area.

BTC/USD monthly chart. Source: X/Sheldon Diedericks

On the downside, the 200-week EMA at $68,300 and the 200-week SMA at $59,400 remain key levels to watch. Below that, the next major level is Bitcoin’s realized price around $54,000.

As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin’s bear market bottom could be formed once BTC price drops toward or below its realized price.