The ‘Goldilocks’ era of Indian equities was already showing signs of weakness, but any hopes of a quick reversal have now come to a grinding halt. India’s markets are witnessing a historic shift in sentiment, with a record $13 billion in FII outflows in a month.
This is not just a correction; this is a rout. Over Rs 1.24 lakh crore was withdrawn in just March alone, the worst outflow in the history of Indian markets.
The energy squeeze
The major driving force has been the war in the Gulf. Brent crude prices have gone up by 51% in the past month to hit a four-year high of $119.50/barrel, after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz.
Advertisement
With global brokerage Goldman Sachs forecasting crude to average $115/bbl through April, the import-driven Indian economy is facing a direct shock, fueling inflation, widening the trade deficit, and squeezing corporate margins.
All the importing countries in Asia are affected due to the rising oil prices, but the high FII outflows from India indicate that certain weaknesses were already in place.
Live Events
Even when the first shots were not fired, investors were battling a weak rupee, weak earnings recovery, and high valuations, along with the US tariffs. The oil issue is simply the last catalyst. And the change in sentiment is now stark. With geopolitical risks increasing, the dialogue has now shifted from an ‘India premium’ to an ‘India exit’.
Brokerages hit the panic button
Global institutions are rapidly recalibrating. Goldman Sachs has lowered its target price for Nifty to 25,900 from 29,300 and has downgraded India to “market weight.” The global brokerage has also lowered its earnings growth estimates by 9 percentage points cumulatively for CY26/27 to 8% and 13%.
Its models indicate that if oil prices remain $45 above average for three months, earnings growth could be down 9 per cent, a notion supported by history, where past oil shocks resulted in a 6-13 per cent downgrade.
Advertisement
The caution comes from many corners, and Bernstein, Citi, and Nomura are among those taking a more defensive stance, cutting targets and warning of a brewing earnings downgrade cycle.
ETMarkets.com
The most dire prediction comes from Bernstein, which says the crisis could trigger a ‘GFC-style’ scenario.
It has cut its target to 26,000 and a worst-case scenario of 19,000 on the Nifty index.
The fear is that of a macro-level shock: Inflation is soaring, and the RBI is forced to hike interest rates, resulting in a stranglehold on the economy, causing the GDP to grow at a rate of 2-3%, effectively a recession scenario for India.
The same scenario is also seen playing out by other brokerages, and they are just as alarmed. Even Citi has cut its target to 27,000 (from 28,500), and Nomura too has cut its target to 24,900 (from 29,300) and believes that a further 5% fall is a “distinct possibility.”
Advertisement
HSBC believes that every 10% move in oil results in a 1.3% fall in the markets, and currency weakness is also a factor.
India pays the bill
At its core, the problem stems from a simple structural fact: Unlike Brazil and Mexico, which are exporters and hence gain from a higher oil price, India loses out as it imports oil.
Clearly, the problem is especially painful for India and triggers what analysts call a classic ‘energy-led earnings downgrade’ cycle.
Advertisement
And while India is struggling to cope with the shock, the picture in the US and China paints a different story
US: Tech cushioning the blow
Despite a 5% drop in the S&P 500 since the war began on Feb 28, Wall Street has remained resilient. Brokerages are holding, and in some cases even raising, targets, betting that AI-driven growth and strong earnings will offset war risks.
Barclays has lifted its S&P 500 target to 7,650, while Citi sees 7,700 and Goldman holds at 7,600. The broader consensus around 7,500 signals that the US is still viewed as a growth engine capable of weathering $100+ oil.
Advertisement
China: The ‘green shield’ effect
China’s resilience is even more striking. Despite being the world’s largest oil importer, its markets have barely reacted, the CSI 300 is down just 4% since the conflict began.
This is because years of heavy investment in renewables and EVs have reduced dependence on fossil fuels, insulating the economy from oil shocks. Even with oil surging as much as 65%, the yuan remained stable and bond yields were contained.
As a result, Goldman maintains an “overweight” stance on China. Notably, no major brokerage has downgraded the market due to the conflict.
Advertisement
What FY27 could look like for India
Brickwork Ratings expects FY27 to have selective opportunities rather than broad-based rallies. Commodities are expected to do well due to infrastructure and geopolitical factors, equities will have headwinds due to global uncertainty and earnings, and debt will provide stability.
Kotak Institutional Equities also believes that “although the recent correction has been beneficial for risk-reward, valuations are high. Unlike March 2009 or 2020, when valuations were low and offered clear buying opportunities, the current situation is different. Long-term investors are advised to invest in a disciplined manner rather than hoarding cash.”
The contrast is stark. “If capital had been deployed into China, it would have been preserved. US markets will benefit from tech-driven growth. India is the most exposed market to an energy crisis, losing 1.3% for every 10% rise in oil prices and currency weakness.”
Advertisement
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
Mumbai: The long-pending National Stock Exchange (NSE) initial public offer (IPO) could start moving again, with an expert panel agreeing to a proposal by the country’s largest bourse to make the biggest payment ever to settle cases that have been a key stumbling block.
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) expert panel on settlement orders has approved NSE’s application to settle the colocation and dark fibre cases for about ₹1,800 crore, said people aware of the development. The IPO has faced repeated delays due to regulatory and legal hurdles.
“The high-powered advisory committee met recently and approved NSE’s settlement applications. Their recommendations will now be put up before the panel of two whole-time members of Sebi,” said one of the persons cited.
The four-member expert committee on settlement orders is chaired by Jai Narayan Patel, former chief justice of the Calcutta High Court. The other members are N Venkatram, country chair of Canadian pension fund CDPQ; SK Mohanty, former Sebi member; and Sarit Jafa, former deputy comptroller and auditor general.
Advertisement
An NSE spokesperson declined to comment. Sebi didn’t respond to queries.
Live Events
Agencies
Step Towards Closure “It moves a long-pending, high-profile regulatory case toward closure, reducing uncertainty in the markets and reflects a pragmatic approach by Sebi to achieve faster enforcement and finality instead of prolonged litigation,” said a senior Supreme Court lawyer. “It also clears the decks for a smoother IPO, restoring regulatory certainty.” The wait for the IPO has been one of India’s most prolonged and closely watched, with the first application submitted to Sebi on October 18, 2016. The regulator initially withheld approval due to concerns related to a colocation case, governance lapses at the bourse, and issues with its technology infrastructure.
Since then, NSE has repeatedly approached Sebi for clearance. After Tuhin Kanta Pandey took charge as Sebi chief in March 2025, he formed an internal committee to examine the NSE IPO issue. Subsequently, in June last year, NSE filed two applications with Sebi to settle the long-pending colocation and dark fibre cases by offering to pay over Rs 1,300 crore – Rs 1,165 crore for the first and Rs 223 crore for the second. In January this year, Pandey said the regulator had agreed in principle to NSE’s settlement application.
I have been working in the logistics sector for almost two decades. I have been into stock investing and macroeconomic analysis for almost a decade. Currently, I focus on ASEAN and NYSE/NASDAQ Stocks, particularly in banks, telco, logistics, and hotels. Since 2014, I have been trading on the PH stock market. I focus on banking, telco, and retail sectors. A colleague encouraged me to engage in the stock market as part of my portfolio diversification instead of putting all my savings in banks and properties. That was also the year when insurance companies became very popular in the PH. Initially, I invested in popular blue-chip companies. Now, I have investments across different industries and market cap sizes. There are stocks I hold for my retirement, while others are purely for trading profits. In 2020, I also entered the US Market. It was about a year after I discovered Seeking Alpha. Originally, I was using the trading account of NY CA-based cousin. Somehow, I acted like his personal broker. That made me more aware of the US market before deciding to open my own account. I decided to write for Seeking Alpha to share and gain more knowledge since I have been trading on the US market for only four years. Like in the ASEAN market, I have holdings in US banks, hotels, shipping, and logistics companies. I discovered it in 2018. Since then, I have been using the analyses here to compare them to the ones I’m doing in the PH Market.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of KRP either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Running a business in London is expensive enough. Most owners watch their overheads carefully — yet they consistently undervalue the one professional who could reduce their tax bill, protect their cash flow, and keep them out of trouble with HMRC.
The problem is not that accountants are unhelpful. The problem is that most small business owners do not know what a good one should actually be doing. If your accountant only contacts you around year-end, you are not getting full value.
Here is what a strong small business accountant in London genuinely saves you and why it matters more than the invoice suggests.
1. Tax You Would Have Paid Unnecessarily
This is the most obvious saving, but it is consistently underestimated. The UK tax system is not simple. Between allowable expenses, capital allowances, pension contributions, salary-dividend splits for limited company directors, R&D credits, and the Employment Allowance, there is a significant amount of legitimate relief available that goes unclaimed every year.
HMRC’s own data suggests small businesses in the UK collectively fail to claim hundreds of millions in allowances annually. Most of that shortfall is not fraud or avoidance — it is missed opportunities caused by advisers who do not ask the right questions.
Advertisement
An accountant who understands your specific industry and business model will identify these reliefs proactively. They do not wait for you to ask.
2. Late-Filing Penalties
HMRC’s penalty regime is not forgiving. A single day’s late filing of your Corporation Tax return costs £100. Extend that to three months, and HMRC adds another £100 and may begin charging 10% of your outstanding tax as a further penalty. For Self Assessment, similar rules apply — and interest accrues on unpaid tax from the due date.
For businesses handling VAT, late submissions carry additional surcharges. Under the penalty points system introduced in 2023, repeated late filings escalate quickly.
A competent accountant keeps a compliance calendar, chases the documents they need well in advance, and files on time. This is basic, but it matters far more than most owners realise until they receive their first penalty notice.
Advertisement
3. The Time You Spend Doing Their Job
This one is less tangible but arguably more valuable. A business owner spending six to eight hours per month on bookkeeping, chasing receipts, and reconciling bank statements is not spending those hours generating revenue or building the business.
If your time as a director is worth £75 an hour — and for most London SME owners it is significantly higher — eight hours of accounting administration represents £600 of value per month that the business never recaptures.
Cloud accounting tools like Xero and QuickBooks, when set up correctly by a good accountant for small businesses in London, largely eliminate this manual workload. Bank feeds reconcile automatically. Expenses are categorised. VAT returns take minutes rather than an afternoon.
4. Bad Decisions Made Without Good Financial Data
Most small businesses make major decisions — hiring, pricing, investment, premises — based on a rough sense of where the money is rather than actual data. That sense is often wrong.
Advertisement
An accountant who produces clean monthly management accounts gives you the visibility to make better decisions faster. You can see exactly which revenue streams are growing, which clients are unprofitable, and whether your margins are holding up. Without that data, you are guessing.
The distinction here is between compliance accounting (producing annual accounts and filing returns) and advisory accounting (helping you understand and use your numbers). Many small business owners are only receiving the former. They should be receiving both.
5. Stress and Exposure You Do Not Know You Are Carrying
HMRC inquiry risk does not often come up in conversations about accountant value, but it should. A business with well-maintained records, properly categorised expenses, and a clean paper trail is significantly less likely to trigger a compliance check — and significantly easier to defend if one occurs anyway.
Beyond compliance, the psychological load of unclear financial records is real. Business owners who do not know their current tax position carry low-level financial anxiety that affects decision-making. Knowing exactly where you stand — what you owe, what is due, what is coming — is worth something in itself.
Advertisement
What to Look for in London Specifically
London’s business environment has specific considerations. Commercial rents, the Apprenticeship Levy, industry concentration by borough, and SDLT on commercial property all affect how your accounts should be structured. An accountant working primarily with London-based SMEs will understand these nuances in a way that a national generalist firm often will not.
If you are considering switching or hiring for the first time, look for fixed-fee pricing, cloud accounting proficiency, and demonstrable sector experience. A free initial consultation is standard — use it to test their knowledge of your specific situation, not just their service offering.
A good London accounting firm will demonstrate its value within the first few months through proactive advice, not just year-end paperwork. If yours is only reactive, it may be time to reassess.
Every UK business, regardless of size, must have a fire evacuation plan. The Regulatory Reform (Fire Safety) Order 2005 places this duty squarely on the responsible person, which in most SMEs is the business owner or a designated senior manager.
Yet many small businesses operate without a documented plan, relying instead on assumptions that staff will “know what to do.” Learning how to create a fire evacuation plan that meets UK legal requirements is not optional. It is a fundamental business responsibility that protects lives, property, and the future of your organisation.
What Does UK Law Require in a Fire Evacuation Plan?
The Regulatory Reform (Fire Safety) Order 2005 requires every non-domestic premises in England and Wales to have documented fire safety arrangements. These must include a clear plan for evacuating all occupants in the event of a fire.
The plan must be based on a fire risk assessment, which identifies the specific hazards, risks, and evacuation challenges relevant to your premises. According to the Home Office fire safety guidance, the responsible person must ensure that the plan is communicated to all employees, practised regularly, and updated whenever the premises, staffing, or risk profile changes.
Scottish businesses fall under the Fire (Scotland) Act 2005, which imposes equivalent duties. Northern Ireland businesses are covered by the Fire and Rescue Services (Northern Ireland) Order 2006. The core requirements are consistent across all UK jurisdictions.
Advertisement
What Should a Fire Evacuation Plan Include?
A compliant plan covers every stage of the evacuation process from discovery to assembly. Here is what it must address:
Fire detection and alarm: how fires are detected (automatic alarms, manual call points, verbal alerts) and what the alarm sounds like so all occupants recognise it immediately.
Escape routes: the primary and alternative routes from every area of the premises to the designated assembly point. These routes must be clearly signed and free from obstruction.
Roles and responsibilities: who raises the alarm, who calls 999, who checks that all areas are clear (fire marshals/wardens), and who meets the fire service on arrival.
Assembly points: a designated safe area outside the building where all occupants gather for roll call. This location must be far enough from the building to avoid danger from the fire itself.
Roll call procedure: how to account for every employee, visitor, and contractor. Visitor sign-in books and staff registers provide the data needed.
Assistance for vulnerable persons: specific procedures for evacuating anyone with mobility impairments, sensory disabilities, or medical conditions that affect their ability to evacuate independently.
According to the National Fire Chiefs Council, the most effective plans are those that are simple, clearly communicated, and practised regularly. Complexity is the enemy of safe evacuation.
How Often Should You Practise Fire Drills?
The fire risk assessment determines the minimum drill frequency, but best practice for most SMEs is at least twice per year. New staff should participate in a drill within their first week of employment.
Drills serve two purposes: they test whether the plan works in practice, and they build muscle memory so that occupants react automatically during a real emergency. According to the Fire Protection Association, unannounced drills are more valuable than pre-planned ones because they reveal genuine response behaviours rather than rehearsed performance.
After each drill, conduct a debrief. Record the time taken to evacuate, any problems encountered (blocked exits, missing fire marshals, confusion about assembly points), and corrective actions. This documented review demonstrates continuous improvement to fire authority inspectors and insurers.
Advertisement
What Are the Most Common Evacuation Plan Mistakes?
SMEs make predictable errors that weaken their fire safety arrangements.
No written plan: A verbal understanding is not sufficient. The plan must be documented and accessible to all staff, including new starters, temporary workers, and visitors.
Blocked escape routes: Storage items, furniture, and deliveries gradually encroach on corridors and fire exits. Monthly checks prevent this drift.
Untrained fire marshals: Appointing fire wardens without providing proper training leaves them unprepared to manage a real evacuation. Fire marshal training courses cover the skills these delegates need.
Outdated plans: Office layouts change, staff turnover occurs, and new hazards are introduced. Plans that are not reviewed annually (at minimum) become dangerously inaccurate.
No provision for visitors: Delivery drivers, clients, and contractors may be unfamiliar with the building. Reception staff must know how to direct visitors to the nearest exit and assembly point.
Each of these gaps represents a compliance failure that could have serious consequences during a fire and during any subsequent investigation.
What Happens If Your Business Does Not Have a Plan?
The fire authority can inspect any non-domestic premises at any time. If they find inadequate fire safety arrangements, including the absence of a documented evacuation plan, they can issue enforcement and prohibition notices.
An enforcement notice requires the responsible person to rectify the deficiency within a specified timeframe. A prohibition notice can close the premises immediately until the issue is resolved. In the most serious cases, prosecution can result in unlimited fines and, for individuals, imprisonment.
Beyond regulatory enforcement, the absence of a fire evacuation plan creates profound personal liability. If a fire results in injury or death and the investigation reveals that no plan existed, the responsible person faces both criminal prosecution and civil claims.
Advertisement
SME Fire Safety Checklist
Every UK business must have a documented fire evacuation plan based on a fire risk assessment.
Plans must cover detection, escape routes, roles, assembly points, roll call, and vulnerable person procedures.
Practise fire drills at least twice per year and debrief after each drill.
Review and update the plan annually or whenever premises, staffing, or risks change.
Fire marshals must receive proper training to manage evacuations effectively.
Document everything: the plan, drill records, reviews, and corrective actions.
The Plan Nobody Hopes to Use
A fire evacuation plan exists for the one day you desperately need it. The time spent creating, communicating, and practising the plan is an investment in the safety of every person who enters your building. For SMEs, that investment is small compared to the consequences of having no plan at all.
FAQ
How many fire marshals does my SME need?
The general recommendation is one fire marshal per floor or per 50 occupants. The exact number depends on your fire risk assessment, building layout, and shift patterns.
Do I need a separate plan for each floor of my building?
The overall plan should cover the entire premises, with specific sections detailing escape routes and procedures for each floor. Multi-storey buildings may use phased evacuation (floor by floor) rather than simultaneous evacuation.
What fire safety training do employees need?
All employees should receive basic fire awareness training as part of their induction. Fire marshals require additional training covering evacuation management, fire extinguisher use, and communication with the fire service.
Does my landlord or I hold responsibility for fire safety?
In leased commercial premises, the tenant (as the occupier) is typically the responsible person for fire safety within their demise. The landlord is responsible for communal areas. Lease terms should clarify the division of duties.
Trent Ltd, one of the most expensive retail stocks in India by valuation metrics, is set to report its March quarter earnings along with a likely bonus announcement, with investors closely watching growth sustainability and margin trajectory.
The Tata Group retail arm has seen a sharp rerating over the past few years, trading at elevated multiples of around 75x FY26 earnings, reflecting strong confidence in its execution, aggressive store expansion, and category dominance through brands like Westside and Zudio. However, growth has slowed in recent quarters.
Brokerages expect Trent to report healthy revenue growth for the March-ended quarter, supported by continued store additions and steady demand.
HDFC Securities estimates revenue growth of about 20% YoY to around Rs 4,940 crore, broadly in line with the company’s pre-quarter update. Motilal Oswal also expects revenue growth of around 18%, driven primarily by store expansion rather than like-for-like growth.
Advertisement
Segmentally, Westside is expected to grow around 26% YoY, while Zudio is seen growing at about 18%, indicating sustained traction in value fashion even as competition intensifies.
Live Events
Margins are likely to present a mixed picture this quarter. HDFC Securities expects gross margins to expand by around 70 basis points YoY to 43.3%, driven by an improving mix with a higher contribution from Westside. This is expected to translate into an EBITDA margin of around 16.6%, up about 60 basis points YoY. However, Motilal Oswal takes a more cautious view, building in a 70 basis point YoY contraction in EBITDA margin to 15.3%, citing end-of-season sale (EoSS) pressures and higher operating costs.The divergence highlights uncertainty around margin sustainability, especially given Trent’s rapid scale-up phase.
Profit may see pressure despite strong revenue growth, as profitability could remain under strain. Motilal Oswal expects adjusted profit after tax to decline around 14% YoY, largely due to margin compression and operating leverage dynamics.
Store additions remain a key growth lever. Trent is expected to add around 22 Westside stores and 111 Zudio stores on a net basis during the quarter, underscoring its aggressive expansion strategy.
Investors will closely track management commentary on demand trends across formats, recovery in same-store sales growth (SSSG), and performance of the Star grocery business.
Advertisement
Trent continues to trade at elevated multiples relative to peers, with a FY26 price-to-earnings multiple of around 75x, moderating to 61x in FY27 and 53x in FY28, according to HDFC Securities. This positions it among the most expensive retail stocks in India, leaving limited room for earnings disappointment.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
Arbitrage Trader, aka Denislav Iliev has been day trading for 15+ years and leads a team of 40 analysts. They identify mispriced investments in fixed-income and closed-end funds based on simple-to-understand financial logic.
Denislav leads the investing group Trade With Beta, features of the service include: frequent picks for mispriced preferred stocks and baby bonds, weekly reviews of 1200+ equities, IPO previews, hedging strategies, an actively managed portfolio, and chat for discussion. Learn more.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of MGRD either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Thailand’s Strategy to Secure Safe Hormuz Passage for Three Stranded Ships
The Thai government successfully utilized proactive diplomacy to secure safe passage for three stranded vessels carrying essential energy and petrochemical supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. By coordinating with authorities in Iran and Oman, officials were able to mitigate potential fuel and feedstock shortages that had been threatened by regional geopolitical instability, thereby safeguarding Thailand’s energy security and economic stability.
Key Points
“Team Thailand,” led by Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Sihasak Phuangketkeow, leveraged bilateral relations with Oman to act as an intermediary with Iran to clear the maritime deadlock.
PTT Public Company Limited successfully secured the return of the Serifos, a very large crude carrier (VLCC) carrying 2 million barrels of oil, expected to arrive in Thailand by late April 2026.
Bangchak Corporation safely navigated the MT. POLA, which was carrying 700,000 barrels of crude oil, to its Sriracha refinery on April 7, 2026, after proving the vessel was not a party to the regional conflict.
SCG Chemicals (SCGC) confirmed that its first vessel carrying 55,000 tonnes of naphtha has been granted passage, though a second vessel remains under safety assessment.
To maintain domestic supply during the crisis, PTT incurred significant financial burdens, totaling over 230 billion baht, to source replacement crude and manage logistics risks.
“Team Thailand” utilized the following diplomatic strategies to secure the safe passage of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz:
Proactive Bilateral Engagement: The government employed proactive diplomacy, utilizing existing bilateral ties to negotiate directly with officials in Iran and Oman.
Strategic Intermediation: Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sihasak Phuangketkeow, visited Oman (April 15-17, 2026) to encourage the Omani government to act as an intermediary in discussions with Iran.
Clarification of Vessel Status: To secure clearance, Thai officials coordinated with the Iranian Embassy in Thailand to formally confirm that the vessels were:
Carrying essential energy supplies (crude oil and petrochemical feedstock) for public use.
“Not a party to the conflict,” thereby distinguishing the shipments from military or political involvement.
The strategy involved effective communication channels between private corporations (such as Bangchak) and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which then facilitated the necessary diplomatic pressure and dialogue to resolve the impasses.
Other People are Reading
Advertisement
No Result
View All Result
This website uses cookies. By continuing to use this website you are giving consent to cookies being used. Visit our Privacy and Cookie Policy.
Discover more from Thailand Business News
Subscribe now to keep reading and get access to the full archive.
You must be logged in to post a comment Login