Around 1.3 million more UK households are facing a jump in their mortgage costs following the economic “shock” caused by the conflict in the Middle East, the Bank of England has warned.

The Bank’s latest financial stability report (FSR) said the UK economic outlook has “deteriorated”, increasing pressure on UK households and businesses.

It came as Sir Keir Starmer warned the coming weeks “will not be easy”, adding that “how we emerge from this crisis will define us for a generation”.

Oil and gas prices have increased sharply since the conflict began between US-Israeli forces and Iran at the end of February, with equity markets also shaken by the significant volatility.

“The shock will weigh on growth, increase inflation and tighten financial conditions,” according to the report.

Nevertheless, the central Bank’s financial policy committee said the UK financial system has been “resilient so far”.

It added, however, that the global macroeconomic backdrop is more unpredictable following the conflict, with this coming at a time when global risks were “already elevated”.

Giving a Downing Street press conference to address the cost of living spike caused by the war, the prime minister signalled the government would seek stronger ties with the EU as part of an attempt to mitigate the conflict’s impacts.

Sir Keir said the “volatile” international situation caused by the US-Israeli conflict with Tehran meant Britain’s “long-term national interest requires closer partnership with our allies in Europe and with the European Union”.

He added: “As the chancellor has rightly pointed out, Brexit did deep damage to our economy, and the opportunities to strengthen our security and cut the cost of living are simply too big to ignore.”

Meanwhile, Rachel Reeves has insisted that any cost of living support offered by the government will be based on household income and refused to commit to immediate support for drivers amid rising fuel costs.

“I want to learn the lessons of the past because when Russia invaded Ukraine, the richest, the best-off third of households got more than a third of the support. That makes no sense at all”, the chancellor told the BBC on Tuesday.

The Bank of England’s report said: “This increases the possibility of large, frequent and potentially overlapping shocks, and periods of intense volatility.”

Experts at the Bank indicated there is a risk that pressure on the global economy could result in “multiple vulnerabilities” crystallising at the same time.

This would have an increased impact on financial stability and “the provision of vital financial services to UK households and businesses”.

The report highlighted that UK households are set to face greater financial pressure following the conflict, due to increased energy prices and elevated mortgage rates.

Last month, the Bank’s monetary policy committee held the UK interest rate – which heavily influences mortgage rates offered by lenders – at 3.75 per cent but hinted they could lift this in future due to inflationary pressures.

Banks have therefore significantly increased the mortgage rates they offer and pulled a number of products from the market.

The FSR said average rates for two-year fixed-rate mortgages have increased by around 0.8 percentage points, while five-year fixed-rate mortgages have seen a roughly 0.7 percentage point rise.

Current rates indicate that about 5.2 million UK mortgage holders could face an increase in their repayments by the final quarter of 2028.

This compares with a prediction of 3.9 million from the Bank’s previous report before the start of the conflict in the Middle East.

Typical increases in mortgage payments would “remain modest” compared to many rises seen in recent years, it added.

The Bank also reported that the total number of mortgage products available in the UK had fallen from 8,500 to 7,000.

This is nevertheless still higher than following the initial Covid-19 period and during the gilt market stress amid the 2022 mini-budget by Liz Truss’s government.

My daughter was on the bus home when a boy at her school began making rude gestures towards her.

Elodie told me he was egged on by his friends, who were all laughing about it. I was horrified when I heard about this – and that was just the start. 

She was just 12 when she first experienced public sexual harassment.  

Now aged 16, Elodie has told me something like this happens regularly, around once a month, and she worries about being harassed and humiliated almost every time she goes out. 

As her dad, this is heartbreaking to hear.

That’s why I’m incredibly pleased that the government has brought into force a law that sexual harassment in public will be considered a specific offence.

But my main concern is still raising awareness. Without this, harassment will still happen and the impact on the victim will still be felt.

I hope new laws like this can put these issues forefront in the minds of the public.

Before having a daughter, I admit I was completely oblivious to this problem.

Yes, I’d always felt some of the things I heard men say to girls and women were unacceptable. But what I see now really scares me – the nastiness and abusive comments are not ‘banter’, they’re controlling and hurtful. There is a real intention to cause harm behind these words. 

This Is Not Right

On November 25, 2024 Metro launched This Is Not Right, a campaign to address the relentless epidemic of violence against women.

With the help of our partners at Women’s Aid, This Is Not Right aims to shine a light on the sheer scale of this national emergency.

Advertisement

You can find more articles here, and if you want to share your story with us, you can send us an email at vaw@metro.co.uk.

Read more:

Advertisement

So many men I speak to when discussing Elodie’s experiences, like friends and family members, are shocked when I tell them what is ‘acceptable’ within the law, like making sexually explicit comments or sexually propositioning someone in public.

They think about their wives and daughters, and cannot believe so much harmful behaviour is legal, particularly when these same behaviours are specifically banned in the workplace through the Equality Act. 

And what is more devastating is that Elodie is not alone. Research from Plan International UK found 75% of girls, some as young as 12, in the UK have experienced some form of public sexual harassment.

For some girls, this is a daily occurrence that affects their walk to school, where they exercise and where they spend time with their friends. Some have even avoided school altogether. 

Advertisement

I worry about Elodie experiencing public sexual harassment all the time: my fear is she’s at risk of assault, or even abduction, when walking alone. She shares my concern that a comment could quickly escalate. 

When Elodie is planning to go out, I have a real mental battle with myself. Should I raise the subject of staying safe and put this issue on the table, or leave it and hope nothing happens?

Elodie is a very level-headed young woman and I trust she is aware of the risks, so I don’t want to limit her life experiences by raising my own fears. But, of course, that doesn’t mean that I don’t sit and watch both the clock and the phone when she is away from home. 

My anxiety increases later in the day – evenings are particularly bad because I fear she could be assaulted after dark, and winter is worse again as everyone is bundled up and less aware of what’s going on around them.  

I also really worry when she’s on public transport. Anyone could sit next to her and touch her inappropriately or prevent her getting off at her stop, and my wife and I wouldn’t know until it’s too late. That fills me with dread and it’s so easy to see it happening.  

Advertisement

We often pick Elodie up when she’s been out and always check she doesn’t walk home on her own. We’ve also all agreed to use an app on her phone so we can check where she is.

But it’s a tough balancing act – she’s a young woman and we want to give her freedom. We don’t want her to feel she’s being watched all the time by her parents, and we also don’t want to worry ourselves silly as that isn’t healthy for us or Elodie. 

Despite my fears, I try my best to reassure my daughter. Until today, there was no single piece of legislation to protect girls and women from public sexual harassment. 

It was a law that my Elodie had a part in, and I’m so proud of my daughter and the fact she has been involved in something that will make such an important difference to girls across the country. She feels empowered by how her hard work and commitment to this issue is starting to pay off. 

. We need to do everything we can to help create a society where this kind of behaviour is seen by everyone for what it is: harmful and unacceptable.

Advertisement

As parents, we have a crucial role to play in educating both boys and girls that this kind of behaviour, far from being harmless or even a way of complimenting a girl, is always wrong. 

Men also need to model good behaviour for their sons and grandsons, as well as calling out friends or colleagues if they see them sexually harassing someone.

This has really changed how I behave when I’m out too: I’ll often try to walk in front of a woman so she can see me, instead of hearing me behind her and potentially worrying about who is there. 

No-one should feel uncomfortable going about their daily life and the long-term psychological impact on girls is severe, let alone any physical threats they may also face. All I want is for Elodie – and all girls in the UK – to feel safe. I don’t think that’s too much to ask. 

Advertisement

A version of this piece was published in April 2023

Do you have a story you’d like to share? Get in touch by emailing Ross.Mccafferty@metro.co.uk. 

Share your views in the comments below.

MORE: ‘Levering’ is the sexy side dish that will enhance your sex life

Advertisement

MORE: Kissing a woman’s hand without consent is now sexual assault in Spain

MORE: I was scared to come out as trans – then I entered a beauty pageant

Comments


Add as preferred source

What is pompholyx?

How can I soothe pompholyx?

It might seem odd to mix three fruits for this, but it’s an incredible combination. The apples give the fruit a bit more structure and the raspberries create wonderful juice, which mixes with the rhubarb and apple juice. 

As it’s only a small amount, I used fresh raspberries for it. Some of them have an astonishing flavour of violets. Mix a couple of tablespoons of marmalade into whipped cream to serve on the side, if you want to echo the marmalade in the sponge.

Requires 20 minutes macerating time

The ‘harrowing’ true crime documentary features exclusive CCTV and bodycam footage of real murder cases

Advertisement

A harrowing true crime documentary with a twist is currently available to stream online at no cost, with a fresh series due for release shortly.

Killers: Caught on Camera first premiered in 2023 on the True Crime channel, running for three seasons. Following its debut, the documentary was hailed as essential viewing for true crime enthusiasts.

This distinctive series presents exclusive footage alongside comprehensive psychological evaluation of video and audio evidence by expert Dr Julia Shaw, which ultimately secured killers’ convictions.

Each episode examines a different case, with Killers Caught on Camera investigating disturbing murders throughout the UK and US, incorporating devastating first-hand testimonies as well as previously unseen CCTV and home surveillance combined with police bodycam recordings.

READ MORE: BBC’s ‘best’ true crime doc returns with harrowing 999 callREAD MORE: ‘Traumatic’ documentary series returns with new series as Netflix fans ‘in shock’

Scrutinising the suspects and their motivations, this true crime programme is ideal for genre devotees to binge-watch, though a cautionary note has been issued to potential viewers. Before watching, it’s important to be aware that the programme contains “strong language, real crime footage and graphic discussions of crimes”, reports the Mirror.

All episodes are also available to stream online via ITVX. An ITV synopsis for the first harrowing episode states: “In the UK, the dismembered body of a woman leaves a couple, obsessed by serial killers, in the frame. In the US, a hidden camera provides vital evidence to help bring justice to a family.”

The disturbing documentary has garnered a devoted following amongst true crime enthusiasts, with one viewer commenting on IMDB: “Although the scenes being shown in each episode are disturbing and graphic I am always left feeling so sad that the victims lives ended so horrifically.”

Another remarked: “A perfect true crime production for the nerdy true crime documentary viewer, so I give it a 10 of gratitude to the people that’s lost their loved ones, and in the memory to those almost 30 victims connected to this series.”

A third viewer noted: “Love the show, for obvious reasons its true crime stories are new well put together.” On X, one fan wrote: “@drjuliashaw excellent job on #KillersCaughtOncamera I’m learning so much from you!”

Another commented: “The Grace Millane case is insane! How do you meet someone, and they kill you on that very same day. The world we live in.”

A fourth series is scheduled to launch on the True Crime channel later this month, debuting at 10pm on 21 April. New episodes will air weekly on Tuesdays through to 23 June.

The series has been described as follows: “Killers: Caught on Camera is an access-driven series revealing exclusive footage and psychological analysis behind killers’ convictions in the US and UK. Combining unseen CCTV, police bodycam and mobile phone footage with expert insights, it explores how everyday interactions escalate into lethal violence.

“The series highlights high-profile cases and never-before-seen footage, uncovering stories of intimate partner violence, stalking, and familicide.

“Friends and family share memories, investigators explain how digital forensics connect cameras, data, and social media to build critical evidence. Featuring Dr. Julia Shaw, it reveals the science behind solving murder… We are all witnesses in a monitored world.”

Killers Caught on Camera can be streamed on ITVX.

New Zealand all-rounder Amelia Kerr hit a stunning 179 not out off 139 balls to inspire her side to chase down 346 against South Africa in the highest successful run chase in women’s one-day international history.

Laura Wolvaardt’s 69 from 74 balls, a 91 from 90 balls by Anneke Bosch and Chloe Tryon’s 25-ball 52 helped South Africa post 346-6 in the second ODI of their series against the Kiwis.

Kerr came in at 21-1 in New Zealand’s reply and struck 23 fours and one six at a strike rate of 128.78 during her match-winning knock.

She was helped by Izzy Gaze, who made 68 from 48 balls, as the Kiwis made 350-8 in reaching their target with two balls to spare and levelling the series.

The previous highest successful chase in women’s ODI cricket was when India made 341-5 in reaching a 338 target set by Australia in their World Cup semi-final last October.

Kerr is no stranger to producing heroics, especially against South Africa, as she inspired New Zealand to victory against them in a T20 World Cup final in 2024.

She was also the ICC’s women’s cricketer of the year in 2024.

Kerr also holds the record for the highest individual innings in a women’s ODI, having hit an unbeaten 232 against Ireland when aged 17 in 2018.

North Yorkshire Police is working to trace the animal’s owner after the incident on the bridle path from Strensall to Haxby at about 9.45am on Sunday, March 22.

The force said the cyclist was left with injuries to his leg when he was bitten while cycling past the dog.

A police spokesperson said the dog, described as a black and white collie-type breed, was one of two being walked by a woman in her 40s.

They said the animal bit the man on the leg as he cycled past, adding: “This bite has broke the skin and resulted in the victim having to attend hospital.”

Police are urging anyone with information about who the dog’s owner is to email peter.henderson@northyorkshire.police.uk or phone 101 and ask for PC1668 Henderson.

Information can be passed anonymously to Crimestoppers on 0800 555 111.

Quote reference 12260053502 when passing information to police or to Crimestoppers.

An alleged Scottish crime boss is being deported from the Indonesian resort island of Bali to Spain on Wednesday, following his arrest in connection with large-scale drug trafficking and money laundering.

Authorities identified Steven Lyons, 45, as a senior figure in an international crime syndicate who had spent months on the run.

He is also alleged to be the leader of the Scotland-based Lyons crime family.

Lyons was detained on Saturday upon his arrival at Bali’s Ngurah Rai international airport from Singapore, Indonesian immigration and police authorities confirmed.

His arrest was triggered by an Interpol Red Notice, issued at Spain’s request, which alerts police worldwide to arrest a suspect for extradition.

Wanted in both Spain and the United Kingdom, Lyons will be flown to Spain via Doha on Wednesday evening.

Bugie Kurniawan of Bali’s immigration office said that he was handed over to Spain’s Civil Guard officers at the airport, where prosecutors in Madrid are seeking to try him on charges related to organised crime, drug trafficking, and money laundering.

Lyons has been on Spain’s wanted list for about two years, following a murder there in 2024. Bali Police Chief Daniel Adityajaya said the arrest was part of a joint investigation involving Spanish and Scottish police.

According to Untung Widiyatmoko, who heads Indonesia’s branch of Interpol, Lyons is alleged to have led a transnational criminal network operating out of Cumbernauld, Scotland, and controlled narcotics trafficking routes from Spain to the UK.

His organised crime ring is suspected of using shell companies for money laundering in Europe and the Middle East, including in Spain, Scotland, England, Dubai, Qatar, Bahrain and Turkey.

Widiyatmoko said a day before Lyons’ arrest in Bali, police in Scotland and Spain carried out raids in connection with the case, with the help of Europol, a European Union law enforcement cooperation hub. Several people were arrested, while others were detained in Turkey, the Netherlands and the United Arab Emirates.

Scottish media have reported that Lyons survived a 2006 shooting in Glasgow that killed his cousin and later moved to Spain before settling in Dubai, in the UAE.

Last May, his brother and an associate were shot and killed in a suspected gangland shooting at a beachfront bar in Fuengirola, southern Spain.

But despite all the failings, he says he still believes in London, “we want to continue investing in London, but there’s a lot of pain coming. It’s frustrating seeing the man on the man or woman on the street right, working their ass off, wanting to be proud of their home and their garden and where they live in the street, and every time they say anything positive about it, they get kicked

A rubber boat carrying migrants has capsized off the Turkish holiday resort of Bodrum after a high-speed chase, killing 18 people, officials have said.

The vessel, detected by authorities in the early hours of Wednesday, had ignored repeated warnings to stop, according to the Turkish coastguard.

Officials said in a statement that the boat, which had attempted to flee at speed, capsized and sank in rough seas.

A coastguard helicopter from Izmir was sent to the area along with three boats, and 21 migrants were rescued from the Aegean Sea, according to officials.

The statement did not ​say where the boat had ​departed from, or its destination, and the nationalities of those who were on board are not yet known. Search and rescue operations are continuing.

The Greek island of Kos, an entry point into the European Union for people fleeing conflict and poverty in the Middle East, Africa and Asia, lies 13 miles from Bodrum. Other nearby islands include Kalymnos, Leros and Symi.

Read more from Sky News:
What we know about the kidnapping of US journalist in Iraq
Dwindling diesel and jet fuel supplies prompt EU warning

While the journey across the Aegean Sea is relatively short, it can also be treacherous. Many of the boats are unseaworthy, or set out in bad weather, and fatal accidents have been common.

Turkey hosts millions of ​refugees from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan.