Bitcoin has drawn a new valuation argument from Bitwise, as rising sovereign debt pressures keep bond markets under strain and strengthen the case for BTC as a macro hedge.

Bitwise said in a new report that deeper investor concern over government debt could widen Bitcoin’s perceived undervaluation. The asset manager linked the argument to stress in global bond markets, where governments and companies face a much heavier borrowing calendar in 2026.

Bitwise links Bitcoin case to debt pressure

According to Bitwise, the OECD expects public and corporate borrowers to raise about $29 trillion in 2026. The estimate is 17% higher than 2024 levels and nearly twice the amount raised a decade earlier.

The report added that about 78% of OECD governments’ borrowing will go toward refinancing existing debt rather than funding new spending. Bitwise said this refinancing burden may raise investor concerns about sovereign balance sheets if yields remain elevated.

In that setting, Bitwise said Bitcoin could attract more attention from investors looking for assets outside government credit systems. The firm did not present the view as a direct price forecast, but it said the macro setup could improve Bitcoin’s hedge narrative.

Japan remains a key bond market test

Japan received special attention in the Bitwise report because of its high debt load and rising bond yields. Bitwise noted that Japan’s public debt stands at nearly 230% of GDP, placing it among the highest debt burdens of major economies.

The firm said Japan’s 10-year government bond yield recently climbed to 2.78%, while its 30-year yield reached a record high. By Tuesday, Bitwise noted that the 10-year Japanese yield stood at 2.66%.

At the same time, Japanese investors hold around $1.2 trillion in US Treasurys, according to the report. Bitwise said higher yields at home now make foreign bonds less attractive after currency hedging costs.

The firm compared Japan’s 10-year yield of 2.66% with the 2.19% yield available on yen-hedged 10-year US Treasurys. Bitwise said this gap could encourage Japanese capital to return to domestic bonds.

US yields add to sovereign risk concerns

The report said the pressure is not limited to Japan. Bitwise noted that US 30-year Treasury yields reached 5.11% on May 11, the highest level since 2007.

Bitwise also cited sovereign risk premiums measured through 10-year swap spreads. The firm said those premiums have risen to their highest levels since the European debt crisis of 2011 and 2012.

While Bitwise said tighter financial conditions may weigh on Bitcoin in the short run, it also said a serious disruption in the bond market could force central banks to provide liquidity. Under that scenario, the firm said Bitcoin could benefit if investors expect fiat liquidity to rise again.

Bitcoin fair value model reaches $224,000

Bitwise cited investor Greg Foss’s sovereign default risk model, which values Bitcoin near $224,000 if it gains wider use as a hedge against government credit risk. The firm stressed that this figure is theoretical and not a formal price target.

The report also said Bitcoin’s path will depend partly on real interest rates, which Bitwise calculated as the Fed Funds rate minus US CPI inflation. Bitwise said Bitcoin performed well during the 2021 bull market as real rates fell, while the 2022 bear market coincided with rising real rates amid aggressive Federal Reserve tightening.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin researcher Sminston said BTC could trade between $90,000 and $255,000 by the end of 2026. Sminston based the estimate on the Bitcoin Decay Channel, a logarithmic model that tracks past cycle tops and bottoms.

The crypto sell-off is worsening as stock markets continue to inch higher every day.

Bitcoin BTC$66,351.65 plunged to a low of $65,708 in Asian morning trading on Wednesday, down 6.4% in 24 hours and 12.3% on the week, as a broad crypto market sell-off accelerated overnight against the sharpest possible backdrop of global equity strength.

Ether (ETH) broke below $1,900 to $1,839, marking a 7.9% drop in 24 hours and lifting the second-largest cryptocurrency’s weekly decline to 11.1%. Solana’s SOL fell 9.0% to $73.25, BNB lost 7.8% to $636, DOGE$0.09236 slid 8.3% to $0.0921 and Tron’s TRX shed 3.4% to $0.3297, per CoinDesk data.

BTC traded near $66,280 by Wednesday morning after touching the $65,708 24-hour low, with the range stretching $5,200 from the $70,907 high.

Global stocks set fresh all-time highs as the AI trade intensified, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rallying almost 6% to a record on Tuesday and Tokyo Electron and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing both reaching new peaks, Bloomberg reported.

The MSCI All Country World Index set a fresh all-time high on the AI rally that has dominated stocks all year.

SpaceX was reported to be seeking $135 a share for a $75 billion initial public offering, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures held little changed near record levels. South Korean markets were closed for a holiday.

The crypto sell-off compounds a week of bearish news, starting with Strategy’s (MSTR) first publicized bitcoin sale on Monday, an ongoing record spot bitcoin ETF outflow streak through Tuesday that has crossed $3.2 billion, Mt. Gox’s $739 million transfer to a new wallet on Tuesday, and stalled U.S.-Iran ceasefire negotiations that have kept Brent crude rising for a third straight day on fresh Middle East fighting.

Hyperliquid’s HYPE remained the lone green outlier in the top 10 by market value, holding a 19.9% weekly gain at $71.98 despite a 3.1% decline in the past 24 hours.

BTC’s $65,000 level is the immediate technical anchor. A break below brings $60,000 into focus, while a hold opens the door to a relief bounce as overleveraged positioning gets flushed.

TLDR

• The EU pushed bidding for its AI gigafactory project from May to July.
• The plan targets five AI data centers, each with one gigawatt of capacity.
• Early interest has dropped from about 70 companies to roughly 10 expected bidders.
• Only two of the five planned centers can receive funding before 2028.
• SoftBank’s France data center plan is larger than the full EU gigafactory program.

Europe’s plan to build large AI data centers has run into delays before bidding begins. The project aims to create five gigafactory sites with major chip capacity across the bloc. However, funding gaps and delayed rules have reduced early interest from potential bidders.

Bidding Delay Shrinks Early Interest in EU AI Sites

According to a report by Bloomberg, the European Union originally planned to open bidding for the AI gigafactory project in May. Officials have now pushed the process to July after repeated delays. The planned facilities would each carry one gigawatt of power capacity. Each site would also use about 100,000 advanced chips for AI workloads.

The European Commission has also delayed the publication of selection criteria several times. That delay has made planning harder for groups preparing bids. The project first attracted interest from about 70 companies across Europe. That field has now narrowed to roughly 10 groups expected to submit proposals.

The plan also limits submissions to a maximum of one bid per country. Several groups now face questions over timing, scale, and available subsidies. Maria Nowicka, a Brussels-based researcher at Interface, pointed to repeated delays. “I think I’ve lost count,” she said, referring to the shifting timeline.

Funding Structure Limits Early Rollout

The EU plan carries a total expected cost of €20 billion. Less than half of that amount would come from public funding. The European Union would provide €4.1 billion in direct subsidies. Host member states would match that amount under the proposed funding model.

Private investors would cover the remaining cost for the five planned centers. However, the funding schedule has created a problem for near-term delivery. Only two of the five centers can receive funding before 2028. The remaining sites depend on the EU’s next budget cycle.

Some partners are reconsidering bids if the project shrinks from its original design. People familiar with the matter said at least two groups may step back. The delayed funding structure places pressure on the program’s launch schedule. It also raises questions about how fast Europe can add AI infrastructure.

Global Data Center Spending Outpaces EU Plan

The EU program faces a large spending gap when compared with private AI infrastructure deals. SoftBank recently announced up to €75 billion for data centers in France. That France’s plan alone exceeds the full EU gigafactory program by more than three times. It also shows the scale of private capital entering AI infrastructure.

Meta is also raising $13 billion for one data center in Texas. That single project stands close to the EU’s total direct subsidy plan. US utilities plan to spend $1.4 trillion on grid infrastructure for AI by 2030. American hyperscalers are also investing hundreds of billions of dollars annually in data centers.

The EU’s €4.1 billion subsidy would spread across five countries. That makes each site dependent on national support and private capital. The Commission has not yet published final bidding criteria for the gigafactory sites. The delayed criteria remain the next factual step before formal bids begin.

Mastercard is expanding its settlement network to support regulated stablecoins, a move that could help bring blockchain-based payments deeper into the plumbing of the global financial system.

The company said Wednesday it plans to offer issuers and acquirers additional settlement options, including intraday, weekend and holiday settlement as well as on-chain settlement using regulated stablecoins. The new capabilities will operate alongside existing fiat settlement processes and are designed to give financial institutions more flexibility in managing liquidity.

Mastercard will initially support settlement using Circle’s USDC, Paxos-issued PYUSD, USDG and USDP, Ripple’s RLUSD and SoFiUSD. The stablecoins will be available across blockchain networks including Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), Polygon (POL), Base, Arbitrum (ARB) and XRPL.

While the announcement may appear technical, it reflects a broader shift underway in financial markets. Traditionally, card transactions are authorized instantly, but settlement between banks and payment providers often occurs later in batches and is limited by banking hours. Mastercard’s new framework moves the network closer to an always-on model where value can be transferred and settled around the clock.

“The next phase of stablecoin adoption is about real-world utility, especially in settlement, where timing and liquidity matter most,” Raj Dhamodharan, Mastercard’s executive vice president of blockchain and digital assets, said in a statement.

The significance extends beyond payments. Stablecoins have long been used primarily for crypto trading, but banks, payment firms and asset managers are increasingly viewing them as settlement assets that can move money instantly across borders and outside traditional banking schedules.

The rollout comes as competition intensifies among payment networks and financial institutions seeking to modernize settlement infrastructure. Circle, Ripple, Paxos and other stablecoin issuers have increasingly positioned their products as alternatives to legacy correspondent banking rails for cross-border payments and treasury operations.

Several financial institutions, including Cross River, Lead Bank, CBW Bank, ARQ and Nuvei, are expected to be among the first participants supporting stablecoin settlement in the U.S. and Latin America.

Bitwise’s latest research frames Bitcoin (BTC) as potentially undersized against mounting sovereign-debt concerns. In a scenario where macro stress in global bond markets intensifies, the asset manager argues Bitcoin could fulfill a hedge-like role for investors seeking non-sovereign exposure, with a theoretical fair value around $224,000 per coin if broader adoption as a default-risk buffer materializes. Bitwise emphasizes that this figure reflects a theoretical model, not a price target.

The core impulse behind the thesis is a convergence of debt dynamics and bond-market fragility across major economies. Bitwise points to a brewing strain in the global bond complex, underscored by OECD projections that governments and corporates will need to borrow about $29 trillion in 2026—a 17% uptick versus 2024 and nearly double the borrowing level a decade earlier. A striking 78% of OECD government borrowing is expected to refinance existing debt, highlighting the heavy refinancing burden facing policymakers and markets.

Key takeaways

• Bitwise’s model suggests Bitcoin could be undervalued relative to its macro-hedge potential, with a theoretical fair value of around $224,000 should sovereign-default risk become a dominant driver of capital allocation.
• Global debt issuance and refinancing pressure—especially in major economies like Japan and the United States—could reinforce Bitcoin’s appeal as a shield against traditional macro risks.
• Japan remains a focal point in debt and yield dynamics, with 10-year yields around 2.78% and a 30-year yield at a record high, while public debt sits near 230% of GDP. Domestic yield dynamics may influence cross-border capital flows.
• U.S. and European bond markets show elevated long-end yields and stress indicators, with the U.S. 30-year Treasury yielding about 5.11% on May 11—the highest since 2007—while long-dated swap spreads have climbed to post-crisis peaks.
• Bitcoin’s near-term path may hinge on real yields—the inflation-adjusted rate—where falling real rates historically support BTC, even as the macro environment remains restrictive. A shift where inflation rises while policy rates hold could lower real yields and help BTC’s backdrop.

Macro debt and yield backdrop reshapes Bitcoin narrative

Bitwise’s assessment ties Bitcoin’s macro narrative to the broader stress in debt markets. The OECD’s borrowing projections underscore how financing needs in 2026 are ballooning, with the refinancing of existing debt constituting a substantial portion of new issuance. In this context, the report highlights Japan as a particular pressure point: its 10-year government bond yield hovered near 2.78% while the 30-year yield reached a new high, against a backdrop of public debt approaching 230% of GDP. The bloc of domestic investors holding U.S. Treasuries—reported at roughly $1.2 trillion—faces a balance of higher domestic yields that could tilt allocations back toward Japanese bonds if relative valuations shift. The comparison between Japan’s 10-year yield at about 2.66% and Yen-hedged 10-year U.S. Treasuries at roughly 2.19% illustrates how cross-border capital flow dynamics can influence bond markets and, by extension, alternative hedges like BTC.

Beyond Japan, the U.S. bond market has been sending signals of persistent stress. The 30-year Treasury yield touched about 5.11% on May 11, its highest level in years, while sovereign-risk premia—captured in long-dated swap spreads—have climbed to levels not seen since the European debt-crisis era of 2011–2012. Bitwise argues that such stress could initially weigh on risk assets; however, if central banks respond with liquidity injections to stabilize financial markets, a more pronounced rally in Bitcoin could emerge as a systemic hedge against ongoing macro fragility.

Bitcoin’s fair-value signal and macro hedging case

Central to Bitwise’s narrative is a valuation framework attributed to investor Greg Foss, which estimates Bitcoin’s fair value around $224,000 under a broader adoption scenario tied to hedge-demand against sovereign-default risk. The firm stresses that this is a theoretical construct—not a target price. It serves as a framework for thinking about Bitcoin’s potential role as a macro insurance asset should confidence in traditional debt markets erode.

Despite the longer-term upside the scenario implies, Bitwise notes that Bitcoin could remain range-bound in the near term. Elevated real yields and tighter financial conditions continue to crimp demand, constraining upside momentum even as macro stress scenarios could eventually tilt the risk-reward equation in BTC’s favor.

Real yields, cycles, and what to watch next

The Bitwise report emphasizes real yields—the policy rate minus inflation—as a key driver of Bitcoin’s macro backdrop. Historically, BTC has tended to perform better when real yields decline, since cash and high-quality bonds lose relative appeal in inflation-adjusted terms. The 2021 bull market coincided with falling real yields, while 2022’s drawdown aligned with rising real rates and aggressive monetary tightening. With inflation persistence a live variable, a scenario in which inflation rises but the Fed keeps policy rates intact could pressure real yields lower, potentially creating a more favorable environment for Bitcoin.

Separately, market watchers have spotlighted Bitcoin-price models that place long-run upside into the hundreds of thousands, even as near-term volatility remains elevated. In another framing, a logarithmic price model known as the Bitcoin Decay Channel has pointed to a broad end-2026 range between roughly $90,000 and $255,000, suggesting that BTC could rebound from current support levels while preserving a longer-term bullish thesis if macro and cycle dynamics align.

Analyst outlooks and what investors should monitor

The convergence of debt issuance pressures, central-bank liquidity responses, and evolving real-yield dynamics makes Bitcoin’s macro narrative increasingly relevant for investors seeking diversification and potential hedges. While Bitwise positions the $224,000 figure as a theoretical anchor, the broader implication is clear: a higher-beta asset could gain in importance if sovereign risk intensifies and traditional markets crack under the weight of refinancing needs and rising long-end yields.

As the year unfolds, readers should watch how central banks calibrate liquidity provision in response to bond-market stress, and how sovereign borrowing cycles unfold in major economies. If the stress deepens and liquidity stabilizers enact sizable interventions, Bitcoin could solidify its appeal as a non-sovereign store of value. Conversely, a less turbulent macro environment or a sharper normalization in real yields could keep BTC trading within established ranges.

For deeper context and related discussions, readers may explore Bitwise’s broader commentary, as well as market analyses that connect Bitcoin’s price trajectory to macro indicators and policy shifts. Related perspectives from industry researchers and commentators continue to frame BTC as a potential hedge in a world of swelling debt and diverging yield paths.

Readers should watch next for developments in debt issuance patterns, central-bank policy signals, and any shifts in cross-border capital flows that could reframe Bitcoin’s role in institutional portfolios. The evolving macro backdrop will likely continue to shape BTC’s longer-run narrative as a possible asymmetrical hedge against financial-system stress.

TLDR:

• Ripple opens an expanded D.C. office to deepen engagement with U.S. digital asset policymakers.
• CLO Stu Alderoty says Ripple builds the future of digital assets with regulators, not around them.
• The office will serve as a hub for convening regulators, financial institutions, and industry partners.
• Ripple’s policy focus covers consumer protection, regulatory clarity, and U.S. financial innovation leadership.

Ripple has opened an expanded Washington D.C. office, deepening its commitment to U.S. digital asset policy. The blockchain firm is planting a firmer stake in the nation’s capital at a defining moment for the industry.

Policymakers are actively debating frameworks covering market structure, stablecoins, and payments modernization.

Ripple’s move positions the company at the heart of those conversations. The expansion reflects a long-term bet on constructive engagement over confrontation.

Ripple’s D.C. Expansion Targets the Heart of Digital Asset Policymaking

The new downtown office will anchor Ripple’s policy engagement and stakeholder convening in Washington. It is designed to bring together regulators, financial institutions, policymakers, and industry partners.

Ripple sees the space as more than a physical address and as a platform for shaping financial infrastructure policy. That ambition drives the company’s decision to deepen its Washington footprint now.

The philosophy behind the move is straightforward. Chief Legal Officer Stu Alderoty put it plainly: “Ripple has always believed the future of digital assets should be built with policymakers and regulators, not around them.”

That position separates Ripple from peers who have taken a more adversarial approach to oversight. The company is not waiting for rules to be written and intends to help write them.

Alderoty further tied the expansion to a broader national interest. “Expanding our Washington D.C. presence reflects our long-term commitment to constructive engagement, regulatory clarity, and U.S. leadership in financial innovation,” he said.

Those three pillars define how Ripple approaches every conversation with lawmakers and regulators. They also explain why the company is investing in a permanent, expanded presence rather than periodic visits.

The timing of the expansion carries weight. Congress and federal agencies are currently considering legislation that could reshape how digital assets are classified, traded, and regulated.

Ripple’s expanded presence ensures the company has direct access to those deliberations as they unfold. Early engagement in policy processes tends to produce outcomes more favorable to innovation.

Deepening Commitment Comes as U.S. Digital Asset Policy Reaches an Inflection Point

Ripple’s expanded Washington presence arrives as the broader digital asset industry recalibrates its approach to regulation. Several major firms have grown their policy teams and D.C. footprints over the past year.

Ripple’s move fits that trend but carries particular credibility given its decade-long record of enterprise blockchain deployment. Operational history gives the company a practical voice that newer entrants cannot match.

Alderoty reinforced the consumer-facing dimension of the company’s policy goals. “As blockchain and digital assets become more integrated into the financial system, Ripple is committed to helping shape policy that protects consumers, supports responsible innovation, and keeps America competitive,” he stated.

That framing positions Ripple as an advocate for end users, not just industry interests. It is a deliberate effort to build trust with skeptical regulators and lawmakers.

The expanded office will also serve as a convening space for broader industry and regulatory dialogue. Ripple is positioning itself as a facilitator of conversations, not just a participant in them.

Bringing diverse stakeholders together is a deliberate strategy to build credibility over time. That credibility, sustained through consistent engagement, translates into lasting policy influence.

Ripple’s deepening commitment to Washington reflects a clear-eyed view of where digital asset policy is headed. The company believes the United States has a critical opportunity to lead global financial innovation responsibly.

Sustained engagement, not reactive lobbying, is how Ripple intends to help shape that outcome. The expanded D.C. office is the clearest signal yet of that long-term commitment.