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Crypto World

$92 Billion Hedge Fund Founder Drops 5 Hard Truths Crypto Investors Ignore

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Bitcoin Price Performance.

Ray Dalio just laid out five hard truths about how markets really work. For crypto-only investors, one of them reads like a warning.

The billionaire built one of the world’s largest hedge funds. He posted the lessons in a note after decades of global macro investing.

The Five Hard Truths

Dalio argues that most people fall into a style of investing by accident. He recommends one approach above all, global macro long-short, and gives five reasons.

First, macro forces move every market. Your split across stocks, bonds, gold, and commodities matters more than any single stock pick.

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Second, the biggest gains come from rotating between asset classes. Fine-tuning inside one class delivers far less.

Third, going both long and short lets an investor profit when assets rise and when they fall.

Fourth, single-market, long-only investors get trapped in cycles they cannot hedge or escape.

Fifth, reading global liquidity and geopolitics beats studying one company in isolation.

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Why Crypto-Only Investors Should Read Truth Four

The fourth truth lands hardest for crypto holders. A Bitcoin-only portfolio is the textbook single-market, long-only bet.

Such investors hold one real lever, the direction of one asset. They cannot easily short weakness or rotate into bonds and gold when the cycle turns.

That leaves them exposed to swings they do not control. Bitcoin (BTC) traded near $63,729, down about 3.5% over 24 hours, a reminder of how sharp those swings get.

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Bitcoin Price Performance.
Bitcoin Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto

History offers a hard example. The 2022 failure of crypto fund Three Arrows Capital showed how concentrated, leveraged bets unravel once the cycle turns.

Dalio’s Complicated View of Bitcoin

Dalio’s own prescription reinforces the point. He suggests a gold and Bitcoin hedge of roughly 15%, not an all-in position.

He told Fortune that an optimized portfolio would hold about 15% in gold or Bitcoin. That marks a jump from the 1% to 2% he once advised.

“I’m strongly preferring gold to Bitcoin, but that’s up to you…”…Still, Dalio said he also doesn’t want investors to overload on gold, instead saying, “I want them to diversify well.” 

Dalio owns only some Bitcoin and still favors gold. He has urged investors to diversify into hard assets while flagging risks around surveillance and possible government action.

That caution fits his big cycle worldview, in which debt and geopolitics reshape markets over decades.

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The Firm That Proves the Point

Bridgewater shows how Dalio applies the discipline. The firm managed $92.1 billion at the end of 2024, down 18% on the year, according to Reuters.

Its flagship Pure Alpha fund returned 11.3% in 2024 and beat the wider industry. The fund shrank from $72 billion in January 2024 toward a $61 billion target.

The firm peaked near $150 billion in 2021, then handed capital back to clients. Management has said the goal is to be the best, not the biggest.

Dalio founded Bridgewater in 1975 and exited operations in 2022. He now writes these notes to pass along principles while CEO Nir Bar Dea runs the firm.

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The Takeaway

Dalio admits a 60-year bias toward macro investing and urges readers to weigh other views. His five truths do not tell anyone to avoid crypto.

They warn against betting an entire future on one market that an investor cannot steer. Whether crypto-only holders heed that through 2026 may shape how they survive the next cycle.

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STRC Falls 5% Below Par: Normal Preferred Behavior or Warning Sign?

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Strategy’s preferred stock STRC closed Wednesday at $94.65, about 5% below its $100 par value, touching off a wave of alarm on social media.

While some critics have aired concern about the sustainability of the structure that has helped fund Strategy’s Bitcoin buying spree, a few supporters argue that STRC’s move down is normal for preferred securities.

STRC Is Acting Like a Preferred Stock

One of those pushing back against the panic was crypto commentator Scott Melker, known as The Wolf of All Streets to his 1 million followers on X.

“A 5% discount to par is not evidence that something is broken,” he wrote in a June 4 social post. “It’s evidence that investors are demanding higher yield, pricing risk, or reacting to market conditions – exactly what preferred stocks do.”

The mechanics here matter. STRC launched in July 2025 at a $100 par value, not a price floor, and according to the analyst, that par figure determines how liquidation preference and certain redemption provisions work, but it does not obligate the stock to trade there.

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He pointed out that many preferred stocks often spend long periods below their stated par, and STRC’s monthly dividend adjustment was designed to pull the price back to $100 by raising the yield when demand softens. As of today, Strategy’s data shows STRC trading at $94.65 with an effective yield of 12.15%, which is higher than its current dividend of 11.50%. The larger market yield is a direct result of the lower share price.

That dynamic became a focal point of the debate, with Bitcoin author Adam Livingston arguing that the market is simply pricing risk at a 12.5% yield.

The Risk Underneath the Yield

Despite Melker’s assurances, the concern gaining traction goes beyond bond math. Strategy’s total preferred dividend obligations are close to $1.7 billion per year, and, as Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff previously pointed out, its software business does not come close to covering that figure.

Recall that the payments largely depend on the company’s ability to keep issuing new STRC shares, which, as several observers noted in the comments section of Melker’s X post, can become more difficult if the shares continue to trade below par.

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Schiff, who called STRC a Ponzi scheme back in April, argued that the lower STRC trades, the more Strategy will have to raise the official dividend to stabilize it, and that would see it burning through cash faster and pulling forward any eventual Bitcoin sales.

Last month, crypto media personality Ran Neuner made a similar point, stating that if STRC doesn’t recover to $100, Strategy can’t issue more shares at par, which would then limit its ability to raise cash. As a result, the market would then start pricing STRC below par more permanently. This would force further yield increases to attract buyers, which would in turn require more cash, potentially including BTC sales, to fund those payments.

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Can Elon Musk Grok AI Be Right About This Scary 2026 XRP Price Prediction?

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Can Elon Musk Grok AI Be Right About This Scary  2026 XRP Price Prediction?

Grok AI is not sugarcoating its XRP price prediction, calling the correction from $3.50 exactly what it is: brutal and steep. But Elon Musk’s AI is equally direct about where the end-of-2026 prediction points.

$3 to $5 as the realistic bull target, with high-conviction scenarios reaching $7 to $8 and above from a current price of $1.18.

The foundation of that call is not wishful thinking; it is a convergence of 4 forces that have been building simultaneously while price has been grinding lower.

Bitcoin recovering toward new highs lifts the entire market, and XRP has historically been one of the biggest beta plays when that happens.

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Source: Grok AI XRP Price Prediction

Final regulatory clarity on crypto, including stablecoins and market structure, removes the overhangs that have kept institutional capital cautious about deploying at scale.

Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin, gaining real traction for cross-border payments and settlements, is the utility story becoming a revenue story, directly boosting XRP Ledger transaction volume and demand for XRP as the bridge asset in those flows.

And ETF inflows returning would add the structural institutional demand that turns a narrative into a sustained trend.

What Grok is describing is a market that has been pricing in the worst-case outcomes for months, where every positive development has been ignored, and every macro headwind has been amplified.

When that sentiment cycle turns, assets with the strongest fundamental cases tend to move the furthest the fastest, and XRP’s combination of regulatory clarity, real-world utility, and institutional access infrastructure makes it one of the most complete setups in the altcoin space for that reversal.

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Xrp (XRP)
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The bear case is the one the chart is threatening to test right now. A Bitcoin breakdown below $60,000 would likely drag XRP under $1.00 for the first time in years.

Grok AI acknowledges that RLUSD’s growing real-world utility provides a better prediction floor than previous cycles, but it is not dismissing the sub-$1.00 scenario as impossible, given where Bitcoin is sitting today.

Grok AI Price Prediction: The Chart Is Testing the Most Important Support in Its Entire Post-Settlement History

XRP is closing the current week at $1.191 with a weekly low of $1.140, and this weekly chart, going back to 2023, is showing something that has not happened since before the entire institutional repricing began.

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The pre-breakout base from 2023 through October 2024 held XRP between $0.40 and $0.70 for over a year. The November 2024 vertical move to $3.40 launched from a base of $0.55, and the dotted support line on this chart sits at approximately $1.20, which is the level XRP has been defending since February 2026.

This week’s candle broke that line intraweek, with the low of $1.140 testing into the gap between $1.00 and $1.20 that has almost no structural support built into it.

The recovery back to $1.191 on the current close is keeping the weekly close marginally above $1.20, but the margin is thin enough that a single bad macro day next week could close this candle well below the floor.

The $1.00 level is the last psychological and structural barrier before XRP is priced out of the entire post-settlement premium.

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Getting there on a weekly close would represent a complete unwinding of the regulatory clarity narrative that the market spent most of late 2024 pricing in, and would validate the bear case Grok identified around a Bitcoin breakdown below $60,000.

On the upside, the first meaningful resistance is now $1.40, which was support for months before breaking down this week.

Above that $1.60 is the zone where the market spent most of March and April consolidating, and clearing $1.60 on a weekly close is the minimum requirement before any conversation about the $3 to $5 target becomes technically credible.

Whether that extreme reading marks the capitulation bottom that Grok’s $3 to $5 call needs as its starting point, or whether it continues lower toward 25 as Bitcoin tests $60,000, is the question that defines the next 3 months for XRP holders.

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LiquidChain Is Catching the Attention of XRP holders

Smart money does not wait at resistance. It moves before the next thing becomes obvious.

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP are all capped at the same bands they have been testing for weeks. The macro relief keeps getting delayed. The institutional inflows keep getting pushed back. Waiting on catalysts outside your control is a strategy with a known ceiling.

Early-stage infrastructure plays do not have that ceiling. A small market cap means a modest rotation produces dramatic movement. The gap between what something is actually worth and what the market currently thinks it is worth is where asymmetric returns come from. That gap only exists while the project is still undiscovered.

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Multi-chain fragmentation is bleeding DeFi every single day. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana run completely isolated liquidity systems. Every user moving value between them pays for that disconnection in fees, slippage, and failed transactions.

LiquidChain collapses all 3 into a single execution layer. One deployment. Full ecosystem access. No cross-chain tax.

The presale is at $0.01454 with just over $700,000 raised. That is ground floor, not a marketing phrase.

Execution is unproven. Adoption is unknown. Established assets offer a smoother ride toward a ceiling that is already visible. LiquidChain offers an earlier seat at a table that has not been set yet.

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Explore the LiquidChain Presale

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This Nasdaq Firm Chasing 10% of Ethereum (ETH) Supply Now Sits on an $85M Hit

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Nasdaq-listed Ethereum treasury firm FG Nexus has recorded cumulative losses of more than $85 million on its Ethereum treasury strategy after selling a large portion of its holdings at a significant discount.

According to data shared by blockchain analytics platform Lookonchain, the company acquired 50,770 ETH for around $196 million at an average price of $3,860 between August and September 2025.

FG Nexus Dumps Holdings at a Loss

The pressure has also been reflected in FG Nexus’ stock performance. The latest market data shows the shares closed at $7.11, down 13.4% on the day, after losing roughly 48% of its value so far this year.

FG Nexus had previously adopted ETH as its primary treasury reserve asset. The company officially started its accumulation program on July 30, 2025, by acquiring 6,400 ETH, exactly on the 10th anniversary of Ethereum’s genesis block. It then increased its exposure through a series of additional acquisitions. CEO and Chairman Kyle Cerminara had earlier said that FG Nexus “plans to become a significant player in the Ethereum network with a goal of a 10% stake in ETH.”

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The strategy came under pressure as market conditions deteriorated. ETH, which had been trading above $4,600 in October, declined to about $2,700 by November. This prompted the North Carolina-based company to begin selling. Since then, the crypto asset has seen a much larger drawdown. FG Nexus is among several firms affected by the decline in Ether prices.

Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund exited its entire investment in Ethereum treasury firm ETHZilla in February. Meanwhile, Bitmine, which is the largest ETH treasury company, is estimated to be facing unrealized losses of around $9 billion after ETH fell below $1,800.

Challenges Extend Beyond Price

ETH is currently trading at its lowest level since April 2025. Alongside falling prices, the broader Ethereum ecosystem has also faced a period of uncertainty in recent months. For instance, the Ethereum Foundation (EF) has recently come under increased scrutiny following a series of high-profile departures, including Tomasz Stańczak, Tim Beiko, Josh Stark, and Barnabé Monnot.

The exits sparked speculation about internal instability and disagreements over the Foundation’s direction. In response, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin said the Foundation is not the center of Ethereum but only one participant in the network.

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Market Recap: Broadcom (AVGO) Earnings Trigger Tech Selloff as Oil Surges Beyond $95

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

Key Highlights

  • Broadcom (AVGO) shares declined despite surpassing earnings estimates, failing to meet Wall Street’s lofty projections
  • Marvell Technology (MRVL) experienced a pullback as investors secured gains after a significant recent surge
  • CrowdStrike (CRWD) delivered strong results and unveiled a stock split, yet fell due to stretched valuations
  • Ciena (CIEN) shares tumbled despite increasing revenue projections, with margin concerns weighing on sentiment
  • Crude oil prices breached $95 per barrel, lifting energy names while stoking inflation worries

Broadcom delivered solid quarterly results fueled by robust artificial intelligence demand, yet the market reaction was decidedly negative. The semiconductor giant’s networking solutions and specialized AI processors have positioned it as a critical partner to leading cloud infrastructure companies. However, Wall Street had already baked in exceptional performance, and when actual figures fell slightly below those sky-high expectations, shares tumbled.

The weakness rapidly contaminated the broader chip industry. Semiconductor names such as Advanced Micro Devices, Micron, Qualcomm, and Intel all retreated as market participants shifted capital away from recent high-flyers.

Marvell Faces Profit-Taking After Trillion-Dollar Valuation Buzz

Marvell Technology had experienced an impressive rally following remarks from Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, who indicated the company possessed potential to eventually achieve a trillion-dollar market capitalization. Those comments propelled the stock significantly higher throughout recent trading sessions. However, today’s broader sector weakness provided an ideal moment for traders to realize profits.

The Marvell decline underscored a crucial reality about AI-focused equities: rapid ascents can be matched by equally swift reversals. Elevated price-to-earnings multiples leave minimal margin for error, even when fundamental business narratives remain compelling.

CrowdStrike Posts Strong Quarter Yet Shares Retreat

CrowdStrike reported quarterly earnings that exceeded analyst projections and increased its outlook for the full fiscal year. The cybersecurity leader simultaneously announced a four-for-one stock split, a move generally designed to attract retail participation by making shares more accessible at a lower price point.

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Yet despite these positive developments, the stock declined. Market participants appeared more concerned with the company’s premium valuation multiple rather than celebrating the operational achievements. This represented another illustration of a recurring market theme—exceptional results aren’t always sufficient to sustain momentum.

Ciena emerged as another unexpected casualty. The networking equipment provider increased its top-line revenue forecast but fell short on profitability metrics and certain forward-looking guidance components. Shares plunged sharply, demonstrating how demanding investors have grown regarding quarterly performance, requiring flawless execution across all metrics.

UnitedHealth provided one of the session’s few positive storylines. Bank of America elevated its rating on the healthcare behemoth, pushing shares higher and providing support to the broader medical sector. Market participants have been searching for defensive positioning beyond technology, and healthcare offers that characteristic profile.

Oil prices surged past the $95 per barrel threshold amid escalating geopolitical tensions across the Middle East. Energy sector equities benefited from the commodity strength, though the advance simultaneously reignited concerns regarding inflationary pressures. Elevated crude prices could complicate the Federal Reserve’s efforts to maintain price stability.

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The session’s overall character reflected an increasingly discriminating market environment. While artificial intelligence remains an attractive secular growth theme, investors have grown far more selective regarding valuations and are no longer willing to chase momentum at any price.

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OCC Head Says he only Feels ‘Political Pressure’ from Democrats over Crypto Trust Charter

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OCC Head Says he only Feels ‘Political Pressure’ from Democrats over Crypto Trust Charter

Jonathan Gould, the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) nominated by Donald Trump, implied that the US president had not ordered him to approve or give special consideration to a national trust charter application tied to his family’s financial interests.

In a Thursday hearing of the House Financial Service Committee on “oversight of prudential regulators,” New York Representative Gregory Meeks questioned Gould on the Trump family crypto company World Liberty Financial’s connections to foreign governments and the Binance exchange. The company, whose co-founders include Trump and his sons, applied for an OCC charter in January, prompting backlash from many Democratic lawmakers alleging conflicts of interest.

Representative Gregory Meeks at a Thursday hearing.
Source: House Financial Services Committee

Meeks said that the company “actively lines the pockets of the president’s family,” pressing the comptroller to hold World Liberty to the same standards as other companies in consideration of its application for a national bank trust charter, “to prove if [he’s] still working on behalf of the American people, or [ceded his role] to serve as a fixer for the Trump family.”

Meeks and Gould talked over each other at the hearing, with the New York lawmaker accusing the OCC head of being “Trump’s fixer,” signaling his belief that World Liberty’s application would be approved.

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“Your attempts to continue to pressure me are the only political pressure I’ve felt from anyone other than your Senate colleagues,” said Gould. “That is very unfortunate and unprecedented.”

Gould’s remarks came after the OCC had already approved or conditionally agreed to several national trust charter applications from crypto companies, including Coinbase, Ripple, BitGo, Circle, Fidelity Digital Assets and Paxos. The comptroller took office in July 2025 having been confirmed by the Republican majority Senate along party lines.

Related: US senator calls for anti-corruption provisions in crypto bills

The OCC head said in January in the days after World Liberty’s application was submitted that the agency would be “apolitical and nonpartisan” in its consideration. However, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, who also asked Gould to pause reviewing World Liberty’s application, said that the approvals were for “seemingly ineligible companies,” violating federal banking laws. 

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Four of World Liberty’s co-founders, including two of Donald Trump’s sons. Source: World Liberty Financial

Approval for a national trust bank charter allows crypto companies to provide certain services without being subject to the same regulatory requirements as traditional banks. In addition to World Liberty, crypto exchange Kraken’s parent company, Payward, filed an application with the OCC in May.

CLARITY Act consolidation expected in Senate

A comprehensive digital asset market structure bill, called the CLARITY Act, is expected to head for a vote in the full Senate soon after advancement in two crucial committees this year. On Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the Trump administration was aiming for passage sometime this summer, with some senators expecting a vote before August.

Magazine: Bitcoin miners are pivoting to AI, so why is the hashrate near ATHs?

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Dow Surges 500 Points While Tech Stocks Tumble on Broadcom’s AI Forecast Miss

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Nasdaq 100 Jun 26 (NQ=F)

Quick Summary

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged more than 500 points (approximately 1%) on Thursday, June 4, even as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite declined
  • Broadcom (AVGO) plummeted over 14% following disappointing guidance for its AI chip business that failed to meet Wall Street’s elevated expectations
  • The iShares Semiconductor ETF tumbled 4.4%, weighing heavily on technology shares
  • The House voted to terminate military operations with Iran, signaling de-escalation after tensions flared earlier this week
  • SpaceX disclosed a planned $75 billion initial public offering in regulatory documents

U.S. equity markets experienced a dramatic divergence on Thursday, with traditional industrial companies surging while technology stocks suffered significant losses.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped over 500 points, registering approximately 1% gains. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 declined between 0.2% and 0.3%, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped more than 1%.

Nasdaq 100 Jun 26 (NQ=F)
Nasdaq 100 Jun 26 (NQ=F)

The divergence was particularly striking. Despite the mixed index performance, most individual stocks within the Dow and S&P 500 actually advanced. However, steep declines among semiconductor names created sufficient downward pressure to offset broader market strength.

Broadcom’s Forecast Disappointment Sparks Chip Stock Rout

Broadcom stock collapsed more than 14% on Thursday following the semiconductor giant’s artificial intelligence chip revenue outlook, which disappointed investors looking for more aggressive growth projections.

While Broadcom’s quarterly results exceeded analyst estimates, the company’s forward guidance failed to justify the stock’s dramatic appreciation over the preceding twelve months. Investors who had bid shares higher on AI optimism quickly reversed course.

“All it takes is one company to at least temporarily wreck the party,” noted Paul Hickey, co-founder of Bespoke Investment Group. “Yesterday, the party pooper was Broadcom.”

The iShares Semiconductor ETF plunged 4.4% during Thursday’s session. Additional chip manufacturers including Micron and Sandisk also posted notable declines.

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Nvidia, which represents the Dow’s sole semiconductor holding, demonstrated relative resilience with just a 0.3% decline.

The technology-focused Nasdaq had posted consecutive daily gains for approximately two weeks before Thursday’s reversal. Market strategists had cautioned that the rally’s foundation was weakening, with fewer stocks contributing to index advances — a trend that historically signals vulnerability.

Geopolitical Developments, Employment Data, and SpaceX Filing Draw Attention

Investors also processed significant geopolitical news. The House of Representatives passed legislation on Wednesday to conclude U.S. military engagement with Iran. The congressional action followed a concerning escalation in hostilities earlier this week — the most serious confrontation since an April ceasefire agreement.

Oil prices retreated on Thursday as President Trump outlined potential ceasefire parameters. The U.S. dollar and Treasury yields similarly moderated.

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With Friday’s May employment report approaching, market participants analyzed two Thursday labor indicators: the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ weekly unemployment claims and layoff tracking from Challenger, Gray & Christmas. Holiday-week distortions contributed to elevated jobless claims figures.

Separately, SpaceX revealed through Securities and Exchange Commission filings its intention to pursue a $75 billion initial public offering — positioning it among the largest public market debuts in history.

Corporate earnings releases continued with anticipated reports from Ciena Corporation, Lululemon Athletica, and DocuSign scheduled for Thursday.

Earlier this week, Alphabet’s equity capital raise bolstered expectations for sustained artificial intelligence infrastructure investment. However, following an extended technology sector rally, Broadcom’s results proved sufficient to undermine investor confidence.

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The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were tracking toward consecutive sessions of declines as afternoon trading progressed.

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Sky Launches Fixed-Rate Yield Product Built on Pendle, Targeting $6B sUSDS Pool

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Sky Launches Fixed-Rate Yield Product Built on Pendle, Targeting $6B sUSDS Pool


Sky (formerly MakerDAO), the protocol behind the $11 billion USDS stablecoin, launched a fixed-yield product Wednesday that lets depositors lock in a set return to a named maturity date using Pendle's yield-tokenization infrastructure. The product, called Fixed Yield, is now live at… Read the full story at The Defiant

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Coinbase Launches Pre-IPO Perpetual Futures, Starting with SpaceX

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Coinbase Launches Pre-IPO Perpetual Futures, Starting with SpaceX


Coinbase has launched pre-IPO perpetual futures on its International Exchange, listing SpaceX as the first underlying asset. The contracts are USDC-settled, trade 24/7 with no expiry, and are open to eligible users outside the United States, the company said in a blog post published June 3. The… Read the full story at The Defiant

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Bryan Steil seeks prediction market ban for lawmakers

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Kalshi faces $54M lawsuit over Khamenei prediction market

House Republicans have moved to expand a congressional trading ban proposal after Rep. Bryan Steil said prediction market contracts should be included alongside restrictions on stock trading by lawmakers.

Summary

  • Rep. Bryan Steil said lawmakers are working to extend a congressional stock trading ban to prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi.
  • H.R. 7008 would prohibit lawmakers and their families from buying individual stocks and require advance public disclosure of planned stock sales.
  • Congressional scrutiny of prediction markets has intensified as lawmakers and regulators examine insider trading risks, consumer protections, and platform oversight.

According to Bloomberg Government, Steil, who chairs the House Administration Committee, told reporters during a Thursday roundtable that lawmakers are working to add prediction market language to H.R. 7008, a bill that would prohibit members of Congress, their spouses, and dependents from trading individual stocks.

Speaking at the event, Steil said he does not believe lawmakers should be placing trades tied to elections or public policy outcomes. 

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“In my conversations with members and just the broad public, I don’t think anyone believes that members of Congress should be making trades on elections or making trades on public policy.”

His comments indicate that platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi could be brought under the same restrictions being considered for stock transactions.

The legislation was reported out of committee in February and placed on the House calendar, making it eligible for floor consideration. Bloomberg Government reported that Steil expects the House could vote on the measure during the summer.

Under the current version of the bill, lawmakers and their immediate family members would be barred from purchasing publicly traded stocks. Members would also be required to publicly disclose an intent to sell at least seven days before completing a transaction.

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Violations would trigger penalties worth either $2,000 or 10% of the investment’s value, whichever amount is larger, along with forfeiture of realized profits.

Although the latest version does not specifically address cryptocurrencies, Steil’s proposal would extend scrutiny to prediction markets at a time when those platforms are drawing attention from lawmakers and regulators.

Prediction markets face growing scrutiny in Washington

Recent congressional concerns have focused on whether people with direct knowledge of future events could gain an advantage in prediction markets.

Last month, House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer launched inquiries into Polymarket and Kalshi, arguing that reports of insider trading activity warranted closer examination. According to a statement released by Comer, investigators sought information about user verification procedures, location restrictions, and systems designed to detect suspicious trading behavior.

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Questions surrounding market integrity have also surfaced in previous cases. Kalshi disclosed earlier this year that it suspended three political candidates after determining they had traded contracts connected to their own election races, which the company classified as violations of exchange rules.

Separately, federal investigators reviewed trading activity linked to former U.S. Representative George Santos, adding another example cited by critics concerned about participants possessing non-public information.

Consumer protection concerns add pressure

At the same time, another group of lawmakers is asking federal regulators to examine how prediction markets present themselves to the public.

As crypto.news reported earlier, nine House Democrats led by Representatives Kevin Mullin and Gabe Vasquez urged the Federal Trade Commission to investigate whether some prediction market companies present themselves differently in advertising than they do to regulators.

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According to the lawmakers, marketing materials have at times used language associated with sports betting, while companies have argued in regulatory proceedings that they offer financial contracts. Mullin said the difference in messaging could leave consumers uncertain about which rules and protections apply.

The request comes as prediction markets continue to expand. Earlier reporting by crypto.news showed that the sector processed roughly 191 million transactions in March while monthly trading volume reached about $23.9 billion. Political, economic, and geopolitical contracts accounted for much of that activity, increasing the industry’s visibility in Washington.

The Democrats have asked the FTC to respond by June 29 and explain whether the agency has received complaints about prediction markets or plans to pursue enforcement actions. Any review would add another regulatory challenge for platforms already facing congressional examination over trading practices and market oversight.

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Bitcoin Market Manipulation Fears Surge as ETF Outflows Hit Record Levels

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR:

  • Bitcoin fell 25% in 20 days after the Clarity Act advanced, erasing $406B in market cap.
  • Bitcoin ETFs recorded $4.356B in outflows since May 15, marking the longest outflow streak on record.
  • Over $10.98B in leveraged positions were liquidated as Bitcoin dropped from $82K to $61,300. 
  • Saylor’s first Bitcoin sale since 2022 triggered fresh fears of more institutional selling ahead. 

Bitcoin market manipulation concerns are rising after a sharp 25% price decline following key U.S. crypto legislation.

Over 20 days, Bitcoin fell from $82,000 to $61,300, erasing $406 billion in total market capitalization. During the same period, global stock markets in the U.S., Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea reached all-time highs.

The contrasting movements have sparked debate among analysts and traders worldwide.

Regulatory Progress Triggers Selling Pressure and Liquidations

The Crypto Market Structure Bill passed the Senate Banking Committee on May 14. Shortly after, Bitcoin began a steep and sustained decline.

The drop wiped out $20,600 per coin within just 20 days. Over $10.98 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated during that period.

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Bull Theory noted on X that Bitcoin ETFs recorded $4.356 billion in net outflows since May 15. Not a single day of inflows occurred after the Clarity Act advanced through committee.

This marks the longest ETF outflow streak on record in the crypto market. The bill, widely expected to attract institutional adoption, produced the opposite short-term reaction.

Two competing theories have since emerged to explain the sell-off. One points to liquidity rotation, where institutional money moves from crypto into equities as stocks rise.

The other suggests prices are being intentionally pushed lower before the bill fully passes. That theory holds that large players want cheaper Bitcoin before regulatory clarity officially arrives.

The divergence between crypto and equities is difficult to ignore. While Bitcoin bled out, major stock indices were printing record highs simultaneously.

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Traders have questioned whether this pattern reflects coordinated positioning rather than organic market behavior. No conclusive evidence of manipulation has been confirmed at this time.

Saylor’s Bitcoin Sale and Technical Structure Raise Further Concerns

On June 1, MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor sold 32 Bitcoin, valued at approximately $2.5 million. This was his first Bitcoin sale since 2022 and represented just 0.0037% of his total holdings.

The sale was made to fund dividend payments, according to public disclosures. However, the timing caused immediate concern across crypto communities.

Saylor remains the largest corporate Bitcoin holder on Earth. Even a minor sale from his portfolio carries symbolic weight in the market.

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The fear that further selling could follow accelerated Bitcoin’s downward move that day. Sentiment, rather than fundamentals, drove much of the reaction.

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin was rejected at the $83,000 resistance level. That rejection formed a lower high on the price chart, a bearish signal.

Following the typical four-year market cycle, Bitcoin is now printing consistent lower highs and lower lows. Analysts tracking cycle patterns say this structure points toward new cycle lows in the coming months.

The combination of regulatory uncertainty, ETF outflows, institutional behavior, and weakening technical structure has created a difficult environment.

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Whether manipulation is involved or not, the data paints a complex picture for Bitcoin heading into the second half of the year.

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