Business
AI threat overblown: Why Invesco’s Hiten Jain is doubling down on IT stocks
Edited excerpts from a chat:
How are you viewing the Indian equity market at current valuations, and where do you see the next leg of earnings growth coming from?
At an index level, large caps are trading below their long-term average valuations, while mid- and small-cap stocks are trading above them. This divergence reflects stronger recent earnings delivery and higher liquidity in the broader markets, but it also suggests greater valuation comfort and a stronger margin of safety in large caps. In the near term, earnings growth is expected to be driven by the rally in commodities, benefiting metals & mining and select energy companies. As West Asia tensions ease and supply chains normalize, earnings growth should broaden and be led by the financial, consumer, industrial, and healthcare sectors.
Financials continue to remain a key pillar of the Indian market. What is your outlook on banks and financial services over the next 12-18 months?
India is currently in the midst of a favourable credit cycle, which began post-COVID following a prolonged weak phase (FY14–FY20) marked by the NPA crisis. The clean-up of balance sheets over the past few years has laid a strong foundation for sustainable growth in the financial sector. For lending businesses, which constitute a significant portion of the financials universe, asset quality remains the most critical driver and continues to be robust across both banks and NBFCs.
Additionally, credit growth has accelerated, supported by improved systemic liquidity following RBI measures. The interest rate cycle appears to have bottomed out, with a moderate upward bias, which should support net interest margins (NIMs) for lenders. From a balance sheet perspective, both banks and NBFCs are well capitalized, positioning them to capture incremental credit demand and sustain growth.
Private sector banks are trading at attractive valuations, especially given their consistent book value compounding and superior return ratios. PSU banks, while trading above historical averages, still appear reasonable on an absolute basis, supported by improved profitability and healthier balance sheets, albeit with somewhat lower growth and compounding relative to private peers.
Importantly, the financials landscape has broadened beyond traditional lending businesses. Sub-sectors such as insurance and capital markets are experiencing structural growth tailwinds, adding new dimensions to the sector. These segments are benefiting from rising penetration and increasing financialization. Within banking, CASA ratios have structurally declined, reflecting a shift in household savings toward capital markets and higher-yielding instruments.
PSU stocks have delivered strong returns over the past two years. Do you believe the rerating story still has further room to play out?
Over the past two years, the PSU index has marginally underperformed the broader market following a strong post-COVID re-rating. Much of the structural re-rating in PSU stocks now appears to be largely priced in, with valuations settling closer to fair levels. Going forward, a stock-specific approach is essential, as broad-based multiple expansion is largely behind us. Within the PSU universe, we continue to see selective opportunities, particularly in segments benefiting from structural tailwinds such as defense, new energy, and maritime.
Technology stocks are navigating global uncertainty and AI-led disruption. How are you approaching the IT sector at this stage?
The IT services sector appears quite attractive, with companies currently offering compelling free cash flow (FCF) yields of around 4–5%. Revenue growth also seems to have bottomed out, as guidance from several companies for the upcoming year is broadly in line with last year’s performance. We expect revenue growth to accelerate as enterprise adoption of AI increases going forward.
Recent news flow around AI-led disruption appears somewhat exaggerated. IT services is a services-oriented sector rather than a product-centric one, making it less susceptible to obsolescence. In fact, these companies play a critical role in enabling their clients to adopt and invest in new technologies, rather than being disrupted by them.
The industry has successfully navigated multiple technology cycles in the past, and with each new wave of innovation, spending on related services has only increased. While global uncertainty can impact decision-making around technology investments in the near term, such investments are typically deferred rather than cancelled and should recover over time.
We remain overweight on the sector.
Largecaps have lagged broader markets in recent years. Do you expect leadership to shift back toward largecap stocks going ahead?
Large caps have lagged the broader market in recent years, creating an attractive valuation gap relative to both mid- and small-cap stocks and their own historical averages. This underperformance has been driven largely by financials and IT services, both of which now appear attractive from a valuation perspective.
We expect earnings acceleration in financials, driven by increasing credit growth and healthy book value compounding supported by a favourable credit cycle. On the other hand, an improvement in earnings in the IT services sector is still awaited, as a pickup in enterprise adoption of AI has yet to materialize. However, earnings in this sector appear to have bottomed out, and valuations remain attractive, supported by healthy free cash flow yields.
Both sectors appear well positioned to demonstrate improving earnings growth, thereby presenting a case for mean reversion from a valuation standpoint.
Overall, mid- and small-cap stocks appear expensive at the index level. However, within these segments, there are selective opportunities that offer a long runway for strong growth.
Do you think midcaps are in a bull cycle and best placed to navigate global uncertainties?
Like the broader market, the midcap index has delivered sub-optimal returns over the past two years, generating only ~6–7% CAGR. However, despite this modest price performance, valuations at the index level remain elevated relative to long-term historical averages.
Recent geopolitical tensions related to the Iran conflict have introduced an additional layer of uncertainty for corporate earnings in the near term, particularly through potential supply chain disruptions and input cost volatility.
In this environment, a stock-specific approach becomes critical. A significant portion of the midcap universe has already evolved into relatively large and well-established businesses, many of which offer a meaningful runway for growth. As valuations correct or become more reasonable, such companies could present attractive opportunities for investors
From a 5 year view, which sectors are you most bullish on and why?
Over the next five years, financials, consumer, and healthcare are expected to be key outperformers, supported by strong structural drivers. Within these sectors, select sub-segments offer high-growth opportunities.
Within the consumer space, themes such as e-commerce, quick commerce, organized retail, and aviation are well positioned. These are being driven by rising per capita income and the nuclearization of households, which are accelerating discretionary spending and increasing the preference for convenience.
In financials, the capital markets ecosystem appears particularly attractive, driven by increasing financialization of savings, rising retail participation, and improved market structures.
In healthcare, hospital services are expected to see strong growth, supported by rising income levels, increased health awareness, and higher insurance penetration, leading to a shift toward organized healthcare providers.
Beyond these, several emerging themes also stand out. Electronics manufacturing should benefit from geopolitical shifts and policy support for indigenous production. Industrial firms catering to strong pockets of private capex such as data centers, electrification, and battery-enabled storage systems are also likely to see robust growth, supported by rising demand for new technologies and energy.
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Business
BIT sweeter? India weighs easing treaty rules with safeguards to attract foreign capital
The government is examining whether to relax the five-year timeline for foreign investors, required under the usual treaty template, to first exhaust Indian legal remedies before pursuing global arbitration for dispute settlement, they said. Under its 2024 investment pact with the UAE, India shortened this requirement to three years, signalling a special bilateral relationship.

The government is also weighing the pros and cons of granting the so-called most-favoured nation (MFN)-forward benefit, which means any concession offered by India to an investment partner under a bilateral treaty will automatically be extended to an existing partner, the officials said.However, safeguards will be built into any of these concessions to prevent potential abuse of treaty terms, they said.
Also Read: Easier FPI access to equity, debt markets
Two important principles
Foreign investors have long demanded relaxed terms under the Investor–State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) mechanism and MFN-forward concessions under investment treaties.
But any concession under BITs, according to the officials, will be guided by two principles: India won’t cede its future sovereign policy-making space, and it won’t allow the so-called “treaty-shopping” — essentially a strategy to dodge taxes.
A decision on these issues will be made after broader consultations, the officials said.
While the template will serve as a basis for negotiations, there will be no one-size-fits-all framework, and the final BITs will vary across countries depending on strategic, economic and other considerations, the officials stressed.
“The government is well aware of the sensitivities around such provisions. That’s why safeguards have to be built into any such relaxations, if they are finally approved,” said one of the officials. “But this is also the time to take the bull by the horns, because we need sustained foreign investments—a whole lot of them. The finance ministry is working on such issues.”
India is already planning to scrap the capital gains tax on investments in government securities by foreign portfolio investors.
It is pursuing BITs with over two dozen nations and blocs, including the EU, Russia, Saudi Arabia, the US, Qatar and Oman.
From caution to cautious optimism
The government has been cautious in forging investment treaties with other countries after an old treaty template–which formed the basis of dozens of such agreements with various countries between 1996 and 2016–led to litigation in several cases.
This prompted the government to draw up a new model in 2016. But the view now is that the 2016 template needs to be revised, ET has learnt.
The setbacks in arbitration rulings against the government, especially in the Vodafone tax case, further stoked caution.
However, deepening fears of capital outflows, especially after the West Asia war, and growing risk of capital reallocation driven by the global surge in artificial intelligence and other strategic technology investments, have warranted a fresh review of certain key issues around the basic negotiating terms of such treaties.
From $85 billion in FY22, total foreign direct investment (FDI) fell over two years before rising again to top $80 billion in FY25. Gross FDI inflows touched a peak of $94.5 billion in FY26. Net inflows, however, have remained subdued in recent years.
Business
‘Massive increase’ in cod prices
But even with changing menus, there has still been a deluge of chippies closing. At its peak around a century ago, there were approximately 35,000 fish and chip shops across the UK. There are now about 10,000, and industry leaders are concerned more could disappear as prices rise.
Business
Winners Convert Best, Not Spend Most
Australian businesses spent more on digital advertising last year than at any point in history. According to IAB Australia’s Internet Advertising Revenue Report, prepared by PwC, the market reached $18.4 billion in 2025 – an 11.5% jump on the year prior – with search advertising alone hitting $8.0 billion.
So why are a growing number of service-business owners convinced that spending more is no longer the answer to their lead problem?
The reason sits in a part of the funnel most advertisers never examine closely: the page a click actually lands on.
The Gap Nobody Is Pricing In
Every advertiser watches cost-per-click. Far fewer pay attention to what that click does next – and that, increasingly, is where the money quietly disappears.
A click is only the midpoint of a transaction. The visitor still has to arrive somewhere, understand it within seconds, trust it, and act. When they land on a homepage, a cluttered service page, or anything built for browsing rather than deciding, most simply leave. The business pays full price for the click and gets nothing for it.
The data is unambiguous. Dedicated landing pages built for paid traffic routinely convert at roughly double the rate of homepages or product pages fed the same visitors. For a business buying clicks on Google or Meta, that is not a rounding error. It is the difference between an ad account that produces booked jobs and one that steadily burns budget.
An Expert Read on the Problem
Michael Costin, a Gold Coast digital marketer who has spent more than a decade running paid campaigns for Australian service businesses, argues the industry has spent years optimising the wrong half of the equation.
“Everyone pours attention into the ad – the targeting, the bid, the creative – and then sends a perfectly good click to a page that was never built to convert it,” Costin says. “You can win the auction and still lose the lead. The auction was never the hard part.”
That frustration was common enough that Costin built a business around it. His company, Postclick, takes its name from the idea directly: in paid advertising, the outcome isn’t decided at the click, but in everything that happens after it.
What the Data Points Toward
The response Costin and a growing number of operators advocate is what he calls the “ad-first” landing page – a page designed backwards from the ad and the searcher’s intent, rather than forwards from a company’s existing website.
In practice it is unglamorous discipline rather than clever design. The page makes the same promise the ad made. It asks for one clear action instead of offering a dozen. It answers the precise thing the visitor typed into Google at the moment they needed help, and it removes every reason a ready buyer might hesitate. None of it is exotic. Almost all of it is routinely skipped.
That neglect is understandable. Ad platforms market themselves on reach, automation and scale – the parts they control. The landing page is the part the business controls, which is exactly why it tends to be the part that gets ignored.
Why It Matters More as Budgets Climb
The old assumption was that more spend meant more leads in a straight line. Rising click costs and increasingly automated campaigns have broken that maths. When the landing experience is weak, a bigger budget doesn’t fix the problem – it scales it.
For a local trades company, clinic or professional firm, that reframes the most important question. Before lifting an ad budget, the more profitable move is often to ask whether the page receiving it is built to convert at all. Fixing the page costs nothing extra per click and lifts the return on every dollar already being spent.
With national ad spend setting records and showing no sign of slowing, that distinction is beginning to separate the businesses pulling ahead from the ones simply paying more to stand still. The winners, increasingly, are not the ones buying the most attention. They are the ones doing the most with the attention they have already paid for.
Business
Bottom-up stock picking key for outsized returns in current market: Sunny Agrawal
Speaking to ET Now, Agrawal said the latest earnings cycle clearly demonstrated stronger growth momentum among mid- and small-cap companies compared to the Nifty 50 constituents.
“When it comes to the earnings season which has just recently concluded, one thing is pretty clear—that the earnings momentum is pretty robust in the mid- and small-cap pack as compared to the frontline companies. We have seen around 15% to 20% earnings growth for the mid-cap as well as small-cap pack, compared to single-digit earnings growth for Nifty 50 companies. That is the reason we believe that the wealth creation opportunity ultimately lies in pockets which are not part of benchmark indices.”
Bottom-Up Stock Picking Remains Key
Agrawal believes investors should focus on identifying niche growth stories rather than relying solely on index-linked investing. Several sectors, particularly those linked to India’s power infrastructure buildout, continue to offer attractive opportunities.
“Whether it is wires and cables as a segment, which is a power ancillary, or whether it is the transformer or power equipment sector, which is predominantly not a part of Nifty 50 companies, ultimately it is a bottom-up stock picker’s market. We need to identify growth stories which may not be part of the Nifty 50.”
While he expects the benchmark index to remain range-bound until geopolitical uncertainties ease, he sees substantial opportunities across segments such as auto ancillaries, cables and wires, power ancillaries, B2B jewellery companies, and structural steel tube manufacturers.
Agrawal acknowledged that rising raw material and crude oil prices could exert short-term pressure on margins during the first quarter. However, he remains optimistic about the broader earnings outlook for FY27, particularly if geopolitical tensions begin to subside from the second quarter onward.
EV Bus Opportunity Is Significant, But Patience Is Essential
The government’s recently announced electric bus initiative has generated excitement across the industry, with companies such as JBM Auto and Olectra Greentech expected to benefit. However, Agrawal cautioned investors against expecting immediate and consistent earnings growth from the sector.
“The opportunity size definitely is pretty huge. In fact, there is an opportunity for each and every player to grab a share. But ultimately, announcing a flagship scheme and rolling it out is a different ballgame.”
He noted that electric bus and truck sales remain heavily dependent on government spending and state transport undertakings, often resulting in uneven quarterly sales trends.
“Long term, we definitely continue to remain bullish on EV buses as a theme, but one needs to deploy patient capital if somebody wants to create wealth out of this story.”
According to him, manufacturing capacity is not a constraint, as major players, including incumbent commercial vehicle manufacturers, have already built significant capabilities to address future demand.
Coal India Rally May Have Run Ahead of Earnings Growth
On the recent surge in Coal India shares, Agrawal adopted a more measured stance.
While acknowledging an improvement in fourth-quarter earnings, he does not foresee a dramatic acceleration in profitability during FY27.
“Although there has been some improvement in terms of earnings growth for quarter four, not many fireworks are expected for FY27 in terms of earnings. Post the OFS, we have seen a very sharp up move, maybe on the back of very cheap valuations and the high dividend yield that Coal India commands.”
Instead, he believes investors looking to benefit from India’s long-term energy growth story may find better opportunities elsewhere within the broader power and energy ecosystem.
Titan Continues to Benefit from Organised Market Shift
Agrawal remains positive on jewellery and lifestyle major Titan, citing its leadership position and continued gains from the shift of consumers from the unorganised sector to organised retail channels.
“The addressable market size is pretty large across all categories, whether it is eyewear, watches or the accessories segment. The shift from unorganised to organised is something which is playing out across all jewellery players, and Titan, being a market leader, is definitely benefiting from that.”
He believes the company can comfortably deliver a 15% to 17% earnings CAGR over the next four to five years.
However, he also highlighted valuation concerns.
“We continue to remain bullish. The only point I would like to derive is that valuations continue to remain slightly expensive. We believe the fair value of the business is closer to ₹4,500-4,600.”
Consumer Durables Entering a Recovery Phase
Turning to the consumer durables segment, Agrawal suggested that the worst may now be behind the sector as inventory levels normalise and demand remains healthy.
He expressed a preference for business-to-business manufacturers over consumer-facing brands, arguing that the former offer more attractive opportunities.
“Things are getting better as the system inventory gets drawn down. We have seen some margin pressure during quarter four, but it looks like the worst is behind for the entire sector.”
Among his preferred names are contract manufacturing and electronics players such as Amber Enterprises and PG Electroplast.
“Both have disappointed in terms of margins during quarter four, but what we believe is that FY27 should be a normalised year in terms of margins going forward. Demand continues to remain robust, the way the heatwave is playing out and the way El Niño conditions are being forecast. It seems that FY27 should be a far better year in terms of earnings. So, we would like to ride through PG and Amber.”
Key Takeaways
Agrawal’s investment approach remains firmly rooted in stock selection rather than index investing. While benchmark indices may continue to consolidate amid global uncertainties, he sees compelling opportunities emerging across mid- and small-cap companies tied to power infrastructure, industrial manufacturing, consumer durables and organised retail themes. For investors willing to look beyond the index and maintain a long-term horizon, these pockets could continue to offer stronger earnings growth and wealth creation potential in the years ahead.
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