Elon Musk’s SpaceX sets the price of its Friday IPO on Nasdaq later today. While the company is currently valued at roughly $1.77 trillion, blockchain-based pre-IPO price discovery derivatives and prediction markets seem to think that’s too low.

That gap is evident from three markets: Onchain perpetuals futures offered by Ventuals and trade.xyz, both running on Hyperliquid, and Polymarket’s implied first-day close. These have all converged on the $1.8 trillion-$2.1 trillion range, according to data source Allium.

Right now, traders on Polymarket, a decentralized betting platform, assign a 64% chance that SpaceX will close its first trading day above a $2 trillion valuation. A close above $3 trillion? Polymarket gives a 5% chance.

In other words, the market expects a strong debut, but not a blowout.

For bitcoin traders, the IPO serves as a real-world test of the dominant narrative: that the offering has been draining risk capital from crypto, contributing to the recent price decline.

If that theory holds, capital should flow back into bitcoin and crypto once the IPO is out of the way and the initial allocation frenzy subsides. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”

What’s trending

Today’s signal

The chart compares bitcoin’s daily price moves with Nasdaq-100 E-mini futures since March.

The strong positive correlation between the two broke down in May, as the Nasdaq rallied sharply while bitcoin fell. However, Nasdaq has turned lower this month, hinting at a potential realignment.

The key question is whether bitcoin can hold steady — having already absorbed significant losses — in the face of a potential Nasdaq selloff. Trading firm Wintermute noted last year that the correlation between the two assets is particularly strong during Nasdaq declines. If that dynamic still holds, BTC risks sliding below $60,000.

Monero jumped by double digits on June 11 as privacy-coin demand returned after two fresh ecosystem updates. 

According to crypto.news market data, XMR traded near $351 to $354, rising more than 10% over 24 hours.

Meanwhile, the move came after Cake Wallet expanded Monero support through FOUNDATION’s Passport Prime hardware wallet. Traders also reacted to security engineer Taylor Hornby saying he would add Monero to his audit queue.

Monero price rebounds from demand zone

Monero traded near $351.53, with a 24-hour range between $308.46 and $355.88. Its daily volume stood near $142.36 million, while its market cap was about $6.59 billion.

The token remains down 13.25% over the past month, but the latest move has turned short-term momentum back toward buyers. XMR also remains above its recent demand zone near $266 to $320.

The daily chart shows XMR recovering after a sharp correction from its January spike toward $800. Price is now moving closer to the descending trendline that has capped rebounds for months.

Analyst Lucky said the setup is “finally cooking” and added that XMR is moving toward a possible historic breakout. The view appears tied to price pressing near the downtrend line.

Cake Wallet support helps self-custody narrative

Cake Wallet’s integration of Monero into FOUNDATION’s Passport Prime matters because XMR users often focus on self-custody. Hardware wallets help users store assets away from centralized platforms.

That point carries more weight for Monero after exchange delistings reduced access in several markets. Binance previously removed XMR due to compliance concerns, while other exchanges have also limited privacy-coin support.

When major exchanges delist a privacy asset, holders often move toward wallets and peer-to-peer tools. That makes secure custody more important for users who still want to hold or transact in XMR.

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The Passport Prime integration gives Monero holders another storage option. It also supports the wider privacy theme that has remained central to Monero since launch.

Security audit news adds another catalyst

The second driver comes from Taylor Hornby, the security engineer who found a critical Zcash Orchard privacy-pool flaw. The bug had reportedly gone undetected since May 2022.

In theory, that flaw could have allowed counterfeit ZEC to be created without easy detection. Shielded Labs pushed an emergency fix before the issue became public.

Hornby later said he would review Monero and other privacy coins. When asked on X if he would look at Monero, he replied, “Absolutely! I’ll add Monero to my queue of things to audit.”

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Absolutely! I’ll add Monero to my queue of things to audit

— Taylor Hornby 🛡❤️ (@DefuseSec) June 5, 2026

The audit plan creates a mixed signal for the market. A clean review could support confidence in Monero’s design, while any discovered weakness could create volatility.

That is why traders may treat the audit update as a watchpoint rather than a simple bullish event. Privacy coins depend heavily on user trust in their cryptography and transaction design.

XMR technical indicators improve, but $400 remains key

The XMR/USDT daily chart shows price moving back toward the major downtrend line. A daily close above the trendline and the $360 to $400 area would support the breakout case.

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The $380 to $400 zone is the next key resistance. XMR must clear that region before buyers can claim stronger control.

The demand zone near $300 to $320 remains the main support area. As long as XMR holds above that range, the recovery structure stays active.

A drop below $300 would weaken the setup. It would also suggest that the latest rally was only a short-term bounce from oversold levels.

The RSI sits near 50.03, while its average line is around 42.81. This shows momentum has improved from the recent weak zone and has returned to neutral.

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For stronger confirmation, RSI needs to hold above 50 and move toward 60. That would show buyers are gaining clearer momentum.

The MACD remains below the zero line, with the MACD line near -15.86 and the signal line around -14.98. This means the wider momentum picture is still weak.

However, the histogram is narrowing. That suggests bearish pressure is slowing, even though the trend has not fully flipped bullish.

Volume sits near 6.56K XMR on the chart. It supports the bounce, but it does not yet show the kind of strong demand normally seen during major breakouts.

Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.

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Hungary has moved to remove prison penalties tied to cryptocurrency trading after restrictions introduced in 2025 led to a slump in trading activity and prompted several platforms to scale back services in the country.

Government spokeswoman Anita Kobol told reporters on Thursday that Hungary plans to reverse measures adopted under former Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s administration, which imposed criminal liability on certain crypto-related transactions and service providers.

The restrictions required approved validation for transactions converting cryptocurrency into traditional currency and for crypto-to-crypto exchanges. 

According to Kobol, the European Union has opened an investigation into whether those rules complied with bloc regulations.

The rollback follows Hungary’s April 2026 parliamentary election, which brought the pro-European Tisza Party to power. Subsequently, newly appointed Minister of Innovation and Technology Zoltán Tanács described the previous framework as “excessive and politically driven.”

Rules that reshaped Hungary’s crypto market

Legislation introduced in 2025 created two offenses around abuse of crypto assets by users and the provision of unauthorized crypto asset exchange services by operators.

Under the framework, every crypto-to-fiat and crypto-to-crypto transaction required a compliance certificate from a licensed local validator. Transactions completed without that certificate were considered legally invalid.

A Forbes report published after the law took effect said individuals could face up to two years in prison for unauthorized crypto transactions, with penalties rising for larger transaction sizes. 

Transactions exceeding 50 million Hungarian forints, approximately $140,000, carried prison terms of up to three years, while transactions above 500 million forints, about $1.4 million, carried penalties of up to five years.

Service providers also faced criminal exposure. According to the Forbes report, operators that failed to secure approval under Hungary’s validation regime risked prison sentences of up to three years, while businesses handling particularly large crypto volumes could face penalties of up to eight years.

Industry participants warned that the measures created uncertainty for both users and companies. Local estimates cited by Forbes suggested roughly 500,000 Hungarians were involved in cryptocurrency activities when the legislation was introduced.

Market participants responded quickly after the rules came into force. Revolut suspended cryptocurrency services in Hungary, while other digital asset firms reportedly explored relocating operations to jurisdictions such as Estonia and Lithuania. Trading volumes for digital assets also declined following implementation of the restrictions.

With the criminal provisions now set to be removed, the government is seeking to bring Hungary’s approach closer to the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets framework.

This is a developing story.

An AI security researcher going by the moniker “Pliny the Liberator” says he jailbroken Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 within 48 hours of its launch. Fable 5 is described by Anthropic as a safety-tuned version of the Mythos model, which the company previously said was too dangerous to release widely. The claim spotlights ongoing tensions between guardrails meant to curb misuse and researchers eager to probe the limits of advanced AI.

Pliny’s posts describe using a jailbroken Opus 4.8 and a suite of techniques intended to bypass the model’s built-in safeguards. He asserts that after circumventing safety layers, Fable 5 could respond to prompts that would normally be blocked, including requests for restricted information. The broader context is one in which crypto and cybersecurity communities have watched closely for how AI safety features interact with real-world abuse vectors.

Key takeaways

• Jailbreak claim: Within 48 hours of Claude Fable 5’s release, a researcher claimed to have bypassed its guardrails, underscoring perceived fragility in safety layers at launch.
• Safety vs. access: Fable 5 is marketed as a safety-tuned variant of Mythos, a model Anthropic described as dangerous enough to limit public release, raising questions about how much guardrails can, or should, be bypassed.
• Techniques disclosed: Pliny cites methods including Unicode and homoglyphs, long-context framing, narrative framing, and a decomposition–recomposition approach, aided by a jailbroken Claude Opus 4.8.
• Decomposition–recomposition: He credits this backend technique as particularly effective at piecing together harmless-sounding prompts into actionable results for the model.
• Industry reaction: Critics argue the guardrails impede legitimate research; observers highlight the tension between enabling innovation and preventing harm, especially given crypto-security concerns.

Breakthrough, or breach of guardrails?

Pliny’s public posts describe a layered approach to defeating Claude Fable 5’s safeguards. He attributes part of the success to a jailbroken Opus 4.8 and a set of prompt-tuning tactics designed to slip past the safety net Anthropic installed on Fable 5. He notes that “Perhaps the most effective is decomposition + recomposition in the backend.” In practical terms, this means breaking questions into small, seemingly innocuous parts, then reassembling the responses in ways that bypass the filter logic when considered as a whole.

The jailbreak discussion isn’t new in AI circles. Pliny rose to prominence around 2024 by developing and openly sharing jailbreak prompts for models such as ChatGPT, Claude, and Grok, often posting “jailbreak alerts” soon after new models launch. In this latest episode, he cites a combination of tactics—Unicode tricks, long-context framing, and a narrative framing that keeps prompts within a harmless-seeming veneer—as the path to success.

One illustration that accompanied the claims involved a demonstration allegedly showing how to obtain meth synthesis guidance by querying about the Birch reduction. The content is presented as a proof of concept for how easily guardrails can be sidestepped; it also underscores why such demonstrations provoke concern among researchers and practitioners who rely on AI for legitimate, safety-conscious work.

Industry response and the safety debate

From the outset, Claude Fable 5 faced backlash for its strict guardrails. When asked for sensitive topics—ranging from bioweapons to cybersecurity—Fable 5 is designed to issue a warning and then redirect the conversation to a less capable model. The debate around these guardrails has been heated, with critics arguing that overly restrictive safety layers stifle legitimate research and innovation.

“This is one of the first times that an AI company has rolled out a guardrail, and there has been uniform disdain. It has led to a lot of justified anger,” said Sayash Kapoor, AI researcher at Princeton University, according to coverage from the Wall Street Journal.

Pliny added his own perspective, suggesting that the community’s frustration stems from a belief that guardrails impede progress. “The consensus seems to be that this has been one of the most disappointing model drops of all time, effectively preventing legitimate researchers from contributing their talents to our collective advancement,” he remarked.

Anthropic said it conducted an external bug bounty as part of its vetting process for Fable 5. The program reportedly did not uncover any universal jailbreaks in more than 1,000 hours of testing. Cointelegraph reached out to Anthropic for comment but did not receive an immediate reply. The company’s stance remains that guardrails are essential for safety, even if early launches provoke controversy among researchers and users alike.

Beyond the immediate jailbreak narrative, crypto-focused researchers have long warned that AI with weak or incomplete safeguards could become a vector for attacks on protocols and software. A contemporaneous Cointelegraph explainer highlighted the potential for AI-enabled agents with crypto access to complicate security and governance in decentralized ecosystems.

Related coverage from Cointelegraph Magazine also examines the broader risk landscape, including how AI-driven exploits could threaten DeFi unless projects adopt proactive security measures. For readers seeking a broader treatment of AI security implications in crypto, that analysis provides additional context about the kinds of threats that guardrails are designed to prevent.

As the dialogue continues, observers will be watching not only for formal responses from Anthropic but also for how developers, auditors, and crypto projects adapt to a landscape where powerful AI systems remain potentially exploitable despite safety layers. Researchers and builders alike will need to weigh the trade-offs between accessibility and protection as AI goes increasingly central to security, development workflows, and user experience.

Anthropic’s outreach efforts and any forthcoming product updates will shape the next phase of this debate. In the meantime, the incident serves as a reminder that safety controls, while essential, invite persistent scrutiny from a community eager to test the boundaries of what AI can do—and what it should do.

What happens next could influence both AI governance and crypto security strategies. Watch for further disclosures from Anthropic about guardrail improvements, as well as any new research from the community detailing safe, responsible ways to explore model capabilities at scale.

Further reading on related AI–crypto risk themes is available in Cointelegraph Magazine’s exploration of how AI-driven hacks could affect DeFi and the steps projects can take now to harden their systems.

Market analysts have cautioned that Bitcoin and gold may face further headwinds this year following a 4.2% annual increase in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) in May, according to figures released on Wednesday.

The surge in the consumer price index, a broad gauge of goods and services costs across the US economy, deflated hopes that the central bank will reduce rates, with some analysts now expecting rate hikes later this year — bad news for riskier assets such as crypto.

US inflation surges to a three-year high. Source: Trading Economics 

Bitcoin has already had a troubling first half of the year. Bitcoin prices have fallen 36% since January, while gold is down 23% from its January peak. At the same time, crude oil prices have surged more than 50% over the same period. 

“Today’s in-line CPI print keeps the Fed cautious, data-dependent, and in no rush to cut,” Iggy Ioppe, chief investment officer at institutional trading firm Theo, told Cointelegraph. 

CPI tracks changes over time in the prices of a basket of goods and services typically bought by consumers and is one of the Federal Reserve’s key data points for monetary policy decisions.

“For Bitcoin, an in-line print is unlikely to be a clean catalyst either way,” he added. “It keeps liquidity expectations capped and risk assets trading more on positioning than on a fresh dovish impulse.”

Ioppe also said that gold remains under pressure. “Real yields are still the key variable, and without imminent cuts, the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset stays elevated,” he said.

No institutional reallocation to Bitcoin

Markus Thielen of 10x Research told Cointelegraph he sees the current macro environment as a continued headwind for Bitcoin. 

“We do not believe this data is sufficiently encouraging to prompt Wall Street investors to meaningfully reallocate into Bitcoin,” he said.

Related: SpaceX IPO nears 4 times oversubscribed, squeezing crypto and tech

“Institutional investors will likely want to see further evidence that inflation is moving sustainably lower before increasing exposure. At the same time, the escalating conflict involving Iran introduces additional uncertainty, particularly given the risk of ongoing oil supply disruptions.”

Thielen predicted that these disruptions could become “more pronounced” during the summer months, “placing renewed upward pressure on inflation expectations.” 

Bitcoin “remains vulnerable,” he said, predicting that a break below $60,000 appears “increasingly likely” over the coming days.

Rates have been unchanged since December 2025. Source: Trading Economics 

Risk appetite will return only when inflation drops  

HashKey Group senior researcher Tim Sun said that while rate hike expectations are “heating up,” the probability of the Fed raising interest rates this year is “relatively low.”

“Only when inflation drops, rate cuts become viable, and liquidity improves alongside lower capital costs, will the overall risk appetite truly reverse.”

CME futures predict a 98.4% probability that there will be no change in rates at the Fed’s next meeting on June 17. 

Magazine: Vietnam preps crypto pilot, HK pushes tokenization: Asia Express

Key Takeaways

• JPMorgan upgraded UNH price target to $466 from $420, maintaining “overweight” stance
• Mizuho increased its target to $460 from $440, keeping “outperform” recommendation
• Stock reached fresh 52-week peak near $413 on June 9, climbing over 20% year-to-date in 2026
• First quarter 2026 results exceeded projections with $111.7B revenue and $7.23 adjusted EPS
• Medical care ratio declined to 83.9% from prior year’s 84.8%, boosting margin outlook

UnitedHealth Group (UNH) finished trading at $407.73 on June 10, retreating 1.28% from the prior session, yet remaining close to its yearly peak following a series of positive analyst revisions earlier that week.

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated, UNH

On June 8, JPMorgan boosted its UNH price objective to $466 from $420, while reaffirming an “overweight” designation. This mark now represents the most aggressive target among major Wall Street firms, implying approximately 14% upside from the stock’s trading level at that moment.

Shortly after, Mizuho announced its own revision—elevating its price goal to $460 from $440 and preserving an “outperform” recommendation.

Mizuho informed investors that the managed care industry is entering a period of greater regulatory stability. Unexpected policy shifts from federal agencies have diminished following three turbulent years, creating a more predictable operating environment.

Shares touched a new 52-week pinnacle around $413 on June 9, advancing more than 20% through the first half of 2026.

Last Year’s Troubles Created Today’s Opportunity

To grasp why Wall Street has turned this optimistic, it’s essential to recall how challenging 2025 became.

In May 2025, CEO Andrew Witty departed unexpectedly. The board reinstated former leader Stephen Hemsley. The company withdrew its 2025 financial guidance as medical expenses exceeded internal projections.

Compounding matters, the Justice Department initiated an investigation into UnitedHealth’s Medicare reimbursement procedures. That inquiry continues.

Investors reacted by aggressively selling shares. UNH dropped to approximately $300–$312 per share—a steep decline from its record closing price of $603.20 reached in November 2024. Berkshire Hathaway established a position around $271 during the selloff, then liquidated the entire stake during Q1 2026.

The 2026 Turnaround Story

First quarter 2026 financial results catalyzed the recovery. UnitedHealth delivered revenue of $111.7 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $7.23, surpassing analyst expectations. The stock surged more than 8% following the announcement.

The metric that truly shifted sentiment was the medical care ratio—representing the percentage of premium income allocated to medical claims. It improved to 83.9% from 84.8% in the comparable period. A lower ratio means the organization retains a larger portion of revenue as operating profit. This enhancement restored institutional confidence more effectively than any executive presentation.

Consensus forecasts from Zacks for Q2 anticipate $4.84 earnings per share and $110.05 billion in revenue. Full-year projections call for $18.32 EPS and $443.7 billion in revenue, suggesting approximately 12% annual earnings expansion.

UNH presently commands a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 22.55, exceeding the sector average of 19.11.

JPMorgan’s optimistic outlook depends on three favorable developments: the DOJ Medicare inquiry concluding without substantial monetary sanctions, medical cost trends continuing their downward trajectory, and leadership executing on its 13%–16% long-term expansion objectives.

Berkshire’s decision to exit—disposing of shares acquired near cycle lows relatively quickly—represents a noteworthy detail certain market participants are monitoring.

The Medical-HMOs sector currently maintains a Zacks Industry Rank of 25, positioning it within the top 11% of all monitored industries.

Japan could soon treat cryptocurrencies like stocks and other financial investments, rather than just as a payment method.

The country’s House of Representatives passed a bill that shifts crypto regulation from the Payment Services Act to the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act.

The Financial Services Agency (FSA) attributed the move to crypto quickly becoming a more mainstream investment asset in an announcement of the passage of the bill Thursday. Japan now has more than 14 million open crypto accounts, according to data cited by the FSA. Low- to middle-income everyday retail users are driving this growth, with people earning under 7 million yen ($43,600) a year accounting for roughly 70% of those accounts.

The new rules, expected to take effect next year, would classify crypto assets as financial instruments,subjecting them to lower taxes and stricter trading rules. It also opens the door to new products like exchange-traded funds (ETFs). “Crypto-ETFs would provide investors with easy-to-understand ways of investment,” the ruling Liberal Democratic Party said recently.

“Our framework intends to improve user protection while remaining mindful of promoting innovation, given that crypto assets are increasingly positioned as investment targets for both domestic and foreign investors,” the FSA said in the statement.

The FSA said the government is implementing an insider trading ban for crypto that works exactly like the stock market. Company insiders or exchange workers are banned from buying or selling tokens if they know about unpublicized “material facts”. This includes secrets like an exchange planning to add or drop a coin, a company going out of business, or large trades that make up.

The bill creates strict “information public disclosure rules” to stop developers from lying to the public. Projects must post clear details on how their technology works, their supply, and their business finances. If a company raises capital through a token but chooses not to obtain an independent audit from an accounting firm, regular investors will face a strict investment cap of 2 million yen.

The government also is getting much tougher on bad actors. The maximum prison sentence for anyone running an unregistered crypto business will jump from three years to 10 years. The country’s securities watchdog will also get clear powers to conduct criminal investigations and ask courts to freeze funds. Operating without registration could bring up to 10 years in prison, up from three, and fines could increase to 10 million yen ($62,800).