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Trump raises the stakes on an Iran deal ahead of G7 summit

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Trump raises the stakes on an Iran deal ahead of G7 summit

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump has long been looking for this weekend to be a big one for his presidency.

The World Cup returns to the U.S. on Friday for the first time in 32 years after Trump threw himself into winning the bid to co-host the soccer tourney during his first term. He’ll be feted Sunday, his 80th birthday, during a UFC fight night that’s expected to draw thousands to the White House grounds. Hours after the final bout, he’s scheduled to jet off to the G7 summit in the French Alps for talks with several world leaders he’s been beefing with over war and tariffs.

But Trump set expectations even higher for the coming days when he announced Thursday that the U.S. and Iran could come to terms this weekend on an agreement that would set the pathway to end the three-month-old war that’s been broadly unpopular with Americans and has rattled global oil markets. He said he plans to dispatch Vice President JD Vance to the signing of the agreement.

Trump has said on several occasions in recent weeks that he’s on the cusp of a deal without anything coming to fruition. A spokesperson for Iran’s Foreign Ministry told state television following Trump’s comments that mediators were active but nothing had been finalized to end the conflict.

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Still, Trump is claiming this time might be different.

The breakthrough comes after he threatened to escalate the conflict with more intense bombardment of Iran and by seizing control of Iran’s oil industry, including capturing Iran’s vital Kharg Island oil facility. The president’s threats followed back-and-forth strikes this week that had rendered a temporary ceasefire agreed to in early April all but meaningless.

“They’ve taken a pounding like very few people could take,” Trump said in an Oval Office exchange with reporters as he explained why he was confident that, this time, a deal would come through. “And they want to make the deal a lot more than I do.”

Trump offered scant details about the settlement he says is taking shape, but told reporters that he believed the Iranian supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, who is believed to have been wounded on the first day of the war and has not been seen in public since, is ready to sign off on the deal.

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Trump is billing the deal as “very strong,” though he says it remains “a little conceptual,” and says it would ensure Iran is blocked from ever developing a nuclear weapon.

Trump’s heightened threats are aimed at creating an off-ramp

With the conflict intensifying over the past week, Trump’s threat to escalate U.S. military action seemed in part aimed at demonstrating to the hawkish flank of his political base that he was willing to play “hardball” with the Iranians if they didn’t come to a deal soon, said Ali Vaez, Iran director at the International Crisis Group.

Trump in March warned he would target Iran’s infrastructure and put American troops on Kharg Island before he ultimately backed down, and the two countries agreed to the temporary ceasefire.

Almost immediately after raising the idea again on social media Thursday, Trump appeared to back away. He called into a morning show on Fox News Channel and questioned whether Americans had the “stomach” for an option that would require putting U.S. troops in harm’s way.

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Hours later, Trump announced he had decided to cancel orders for “very hard” strikes on Iran and said a deal was close.

Vaez said even as Trump was posting on social media Thursday about escalating strikes, mediators from Pakistan, Turkey and Qatar had been making progress in their talks with Iran.

At the same time, Iran also may have reset the equation for Trump with its decision last weekend to attack Israel directly for the first time since the ceasefire after Israeli forces carried out military strikes on Iranian-backed Hezbollah militants in Lebanon.

With the move, Iran signaled that Israel could no longer bomb Lebanon without facing a meaningful reaction and in the process also raised the cost for the U.S. to follow through on its commitment to help safeguard Israel.

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“It really does appear to me that Trump wants to bring this to an end, but his real challenge is that he’s looking for a victory lap and an exit ramp and those two things are not necessarily compatible,” Vaez said.

Trump expresses frustration with war narrative

Trump has been boasting since the early weeks of the conflict that he’d already won the war — much of the Islamic Republic’s leadership has been killed in the bombings and the Iranian navy and air force have been severely degraded.

But Iran continues to effectively keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, choking a waterway through which about 20% of the world’s oil supply passed before the war, and has yet to agree to restart negotiations with the U.S. over its concerns about Iran’s nuclear program, the main reason Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave to justify launching the war.

But the real problem, Trump grumbled Thursday, was largely a public relations issue.

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“They could wave the white flag of surrender. They could say: ‘We surrender, we surrender, we’re finished, we’ve had it. The United States is the greatest power, praise be to Allah,’” Trump said on Fox News. “They could say it loud and clear. And the fake news would say it was a great victory for Iran.”

Rep. Michael McCaul, R-Texas, a former chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said Trump has grown impatient with Iran and the renewed strikes and threats on Kharg Island and Iran’s energy sector were intended to get the negotiations back to the “right place.”

Polls show that the conflict is largely unpopular with Americans. McCaul said he believes the Iranians want to “try to drag this out as long as they can,” closer to the midterm elections in November, because they see that as being to their benefit.

War will be high on agenda at next week’s G7

Deal or no deal, the war will loom large during next week’s talks at the Group of Seven summit in bucolic Évian-les-Bains, France.

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Trump has frequently criticized some of the group leaders — British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz — for resisting his calls to aid the U.S. and Israeli war effort.

The four leaders have also angered Trump by criticizing how he’s gone about executing the war and his lack of consultation with allies before jumping into a conflict that’s hurt the global economy as oil prices have surged.

But Trump said he is optimistic he could have an agreement before his talks with leaders in France.

“The strait will officially open as soon as we sign, which could be soon, very soon — maybe over the weekend in Europe,” Trump said.

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Southampton rioter ‘launched frying pan at police’ in unrest following Henry Nowak death

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Daily Record

So far 10 people have been jailed following the demonstration involving 1,000 people

A man who hurled a frying pan at police during violent clashes in Southampton has admitted taking part in the disorder that erupted after the murder of student Henry Nowak.

Ryan Atkinson, 36, from Highcliff Avenue, became the 22nd person charged over the chaos as he pleaded guilty at Southampton Magistrates’ Court.

District Judge Henry Gordon said Atkinson had “picked up a large frying pan and launched it at police” as tempers flared. He remanded the defendant in custody to be sentenced at Southampton Crown Court on June 29 and told him: “I find there are substantial grounds that if I granted you bail you would commit further offences.”

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So far 10 people have been jailed following the demonstration involving 1,000 people which started outside Southampton Central Police Station on June 2 before hundreds moved on to the Portswood area where Mr Nowak was killed and where the violence started.

Anger had erupted after police body-worn video was released showing Mr Nowak being placed in handcuffs moments before he became unconscious and subsequently died. Vickrum Digwa, 23, who lived in a nearby road with his family, was jailed for life to serve a minimum of 21 years for his murder.

The court hearings have been told that 13 police officers and a police dog were injured in the protest and a member of the public suffered a broken jaw.

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The police operation involved 100 officers from nine different areas with a cost of £443,000 and a clean-up cost to the local council of £7,000, the court heard.

Four more men are set to be sentenced at Southampton Crown on Friday for their parts in the disorder.

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8 Books To Read From 2026 TV And Movie Adaptations

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8 Books To Read From 2026 TV And Movie Adaptations

Whether it’s the new Pride and Prejudice and Sense and Sensibility adaptations (this time from Netflix and Focus Features, respectively) or yet another instalment in the Dune franchise, 2026′s film and TV schedule ought to make readers pretty happy.

There’s something for sci-fi, romance, and classic lit lovers alike – bonus points if you’re a fan of Twilight star Robert Pattinson, who’s set to appear in both Christopher Nolan flick The Odyssey and Dune: Part Three this year.

Zendaya will also feature in both movies alongside her The Drama co-star.

If you want to read ahead of this year’s releases or are keen to find out more about the origins of the movies and shows already out this year, we’ve got your back (or should that be your spine?).

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Here are eight books to read from 2026′s most exciting book-to-screen options:

1) Project Hail Mary, by Andy Weir

Ryan Gosling at the Project Hail Mary premiere

The 2021 sci-fi novel focuses on teacher Ryland Grace, who wakes up on a spaceship one day with no memory of how he got there. Then, he learns he’s accidentally become humanity’s last hope (space enthusiasts will be pleased to learn that some of its scientific details are NASA-backed).

The movie stars Ryan Gosling, Oscar nominee Sandra Hüller, and, if you listen close enough, Meryl Streep. Even better news: it’s set to be released on streamer MGM+ on Thursday, June 18, in the UK, and can be rented through YouTube or Amazon Prime already.

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Movie release date: It came out on March 9, 2026

2) Sunrise On The Reaping, by Suzanne Collins

The Hunger Games author’s prequel explores the experience Katniss and Peeta’s tutor, Haymitch, had as a young tribute in Panem’s earlier Games.

Portrayed by Owen Wilson in the original movies, Sunrise On The Reaping’s Haymitch will be played by Joseph Zada (previously part of Prime Video’s YA adaptation, We Were Liars) instead. The cast will also include Ralph Fiennes, Regretting You’s McKenna Grace, and Hocus Pocus 2′s Whitney Peak.

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Movie release date: 20 November, 2026

3) Rivals, by Jilly Cooper

David Tennant at a Rivals season 2 screening
David Tennant at a Rivals season 2 screening

The 1988 novel is the second of Dame Jilly Cooper’s 11 Rutshire Chronicles books (the last, Tackle!, was published much later than the others, in 2023).

Not only is the Rivals book filled with all the sex, scandal, and ’80s glamour you’d expect, rumour has it that the production company that made the Disney+ version has the rights to nine of the original 10 books – meaning readers who keep leafing through the series could be richly rewarded later on.

While 2026′s second Rivals season deviates from the book at times, it’s proven a hit among viewers and critics alike.

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TV show release date: the first season is available to stream on Disney+, as are the first six episodes of season two. However, the series has taken a break and is expected to return to the streamer in November 2026.

4) Pride and Prejudice, by Jane Austen

It’s no secret I’m a bit of an Austen fan, but even those who don’t usually go in for Regency novels ought to give the classic book a go. The funny, quietly subversive story focuses on the almost-certainly-financially-screwed Bennet sisters, the ridiculous and cynical Georgian marriage market, and some very eligible real estate.

If nothing else, reading it will add an extra layer of enjoyment to on-screen hits like The Other Bennet Sister and Bridget Jones.

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Plus, when the 2026 Netflix series (starring Emma Corrin and Olivia Colman) comes out, you can decide for yourself whether screenwriter Dolly Alderton kept faithful ot the text – or, like Emerald Fennell’s Wuthering Heights, carved her own controversial path.

TV show release date: autumn, 2026

5) The Odyssey, by Homer

The way this Ancient Greek poem is talked about, you’d swear it wasn’t basically a sex and violence-packed soap opera. But in many ways, soldier Odysseus’ long journey home is exactly that – he meets with fantastical creatures, evil witches, and sneaky sirens during what must surely go down in history as the world’s most eventful commute.

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It seems Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey, which stars Matt Damon in the lead role, Anne Hathaway as his wife Penelope and Tom Holland as his son Telemachus, alongside Zendaya, Lupita Nyong’o, Travis Scott, Charlize Theron and Robert Pattinson, will be similarly impressive.

Not only is the movie shot entirely with IMAX cameras – a first for director but the star-studded cast has described it as “unlike anything that I’ve ever seen before” and “exactly what you want [from] a summer movie”.

Movie release date: July 17, 2026

6) The Testaments, by Margaret Atwood

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A sequel to The Handmaid’s Tale, this story is set 15 years after the cliffhanger ending of the first book. Aunt Lydia shows her mettle as she fights against the oppressive regime set in the original novel.

The Disney+ series sees Ann Dowd, who also played Aunt Lydia in The Handmaid’s Tale series, reprise her role. She stars alongside One Battle After Another actor Chase Infiniti and Bafta winner Lucy Halliday in a show critics have dubbed “ravishing” and “a triumph”.

TV show release: The first season is already out on Disney+.

7) Dune and Dune Messiah, by Frank Herbert

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me reading the first Dune trilogy, despite my aversion to sci-fi
me reading the first Dune trilogy, despite my aversion to sci-fi

To be honest, the first novel will see you through most of the first two movies, and is more than enough to call yourself a sandworm bookworm. But Dune: Part Three leans heavily on Dune: Messiah, the second in Herbert’s canonical six-part series.

It’s less action-packed than the first entry, but it contains arguably weirder characters – like a gas-guzzling fish-human hybrid – that make you wonder where the movie, starring Timothée Chalamet, Zendaya, Robert Pattinson, and Florence Pugh, could possibly go.

Movie release date: December 18, 2026 (just about enough time to finish the first trilogy)

8) Sense and Sensibility, by Jane Austen

It might not be as essential an Austen read as Pride and Prejudice. But Elinor and Marianne Dashwood’s plight is no less engaging than the Bennet sisters’: after some significant downsizing, the family has to make their way in a very new society. Yearning and love troubles inevitably ensue.

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This year’s movie marks the first screen adaptation of the book since the BBC’s excellent 2008 TV series. Only time will tell if stars Daisy Edgar-Jones and Hanna star Esmé Creed-Miles will prove just as dazzling on the big screen.

Movie release date: September 25, 2026.

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In pictures: The circus artists rewriting the rules of ageing

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In pictures: The circus artists rewriting the rules of ageing

“There’s something radical about seeing people reclaim play, performance and visibility later in life,” says those behind an over-50s circus showcase

Roll up, roll up: this weekend sees the return of Generation Circus’ Over 50s Circus Showcase, a joyful challenge to the idea that play, performance and risk-taking belong only to the young.

Held on Sunday, 14 June in Hertfordshire, UK, the show — ‘A Rebellion Against Ageism’ — will bring together circus artists ranging in age from 50 all the way up to 96. Trapeze, hula hoop, juggling, clowning and dance are all on the bill.

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Each performer is a weekly attendee at Generation Circus’ circus skills workshops held at Ware Drill Hall, learning new skills from juggling to trapeze. Classes are completely free and funded by the The National Lottery Community Fund.

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Pink-haired Carol (main picture), who performs trapeze, dance, and hoop, said that her world “came crashing down” after the death of her daughter four years ago. “Circus gave me a way to reconnect with the world, it’s given me a purpose and brought a little bit of sparkle back into my life. Performing is my escape from the reality of life’s hard knocks, my happy place.”

Several performers are returning from last year’s show, ‘Will You Still Love Me?’, which drew sell-out audiences of 500.

 

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Carol now also performs burlesque as her alter ego Talula Demure. She added: “I say be a kid at heart because the older you get the more you can get away with.”

Emma Taylor launched Generation Circus in collaboration with her daughter, Maisy. The pair have an extensive background in contemporary and social circus. Back in the 1990s, Emma and husband Dave had a doubles trapeze act – with Maisy always taking part in the show, even at just age four.

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“Maisy, Dave and I have been a circus family for three decades — and building Generation Circus together has been the most rewarding adventure of all,” said Emma. 

Dave now also works tirelessly behind the scenes on Generation Circus, sorting out everything “from welding rigging plates to mending fairy lights to fixing the wheels on our stage chair”.

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Another of last year’s performers, Alison, said: “Emma has created a wonderfully nurturing, safe space where we can come as we are and feel accepted. There’s no too big, too much, too weird here!”

The portraits featured here, taken by Andy Holloway, carry the same spirit: older adults seen not as frail or fading, but theatrical, funny, visible and fully in the frame. As Generation Circus founder Emma Taylor puts it: “there’s something radical about seeing people reclaim play, performance and visibility later in life.”

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Bob (above), a clown and dancer, said: “I’m not a performer, I’m not comfortable being on stage … or so I have thought all my life. Circus has made me think about who I am. And it turns out I AM a performer!”

“The encouragement of the group has brought out something I never imagined was in me,” added Bob.

Photography by Andy Holloway

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Pathologist gives evidence at trial of man who strangled his wife in their bedroom – live updates

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Wales Online

The trial of a man from Bridgend who killed his wife is entering its fifth day on Friday. Michael Davies, 57, is on trial at Newport Crown Court accused of murdering his wife Tracey Davies, 48, at their home at Bryn Terrace, Cefn Cribwr, near Bridgend, on April 18 last year.

He denies murder but accepts that he killed her, and has told police he did so by strangling her between 7.30am and 8am that morning.

On the fourth day of the trial, the court heard details of his police interview in which Davies outlined how he killed his wife.

Davies told officers he didn’t have control of what he was doing, saying: “I loved her to bits but I didn’t seem to have any understanding over my hands. I’m not sure what I was even doing. I just wanted to keep strangling her.”

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Tracey was found dead on a bed in one of the bedrooms. The defendant had cuts to his throat and leg and was found slumped behind the bedroom door.

Tracey Davies’ sister remembered her as being ‘the life and soul of the party’(Image: Family photo)

In the police interview, the defendant told officers that after Ms Davies came into the bedroom he put his hands on her neck and started squeezing. He said he kept the pressure on her neck but he didn’t understand what was going on, and he said he kept trying to squeeze her neck and wanted to keep strangling her.

He told officers he then had “an overwhelming feeling” to get a knife from the kitchen and said he had a feeling to put the knife into himself. He then said he couldn’t remember anything else until he woke up in the UHW.

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When asked whether he had intended to kill his wife, he replied, “not at all”. Davies said his mind was so broken he didn’t know what his intention was.

So far, the jury has heard the distressing account he gave police of how he took her life, as well as evidence from the accused’s daughter and healthcare professionals.

Davies, of Cefn Road in Bridgend, denies murdering his wife, on the grounds of diminished responsibility.

The trial continues.

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Influential British artist David Hockney dies aged of 88

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Influential British artist David Hockney dies aged of 88

Mr Hockney, who was born in Bradford, West Yorkshire, in 1937, passed away peacefully at his home on June 11, just weeks before what would have been his 89th birthday.

The artist’s publicist described him as “one of the most important figures in contemporary art in both the 20th and 21st centuries”.

A statement said: “The celebrated British artist David Hockney, one of the most important figures in contemporary art in both the 20th and 21st centuries, passed away peacefully at home on 11 June 2026, one month short of his 89th birthday.”

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The life of David Hockney

Mr Hockney began his training at the Bradford School of Art before moving on to the Royal College of Art in London, where he emerged as a prominent figure in the British pop art movement.

He was best known for his vibrant, sunlit paintings, particularly his iconic Los Angeles swimming pool scenes.

His wide-ranging body of work included photography, printmaking, stage design, and later, digital art.

His career spanned more than 70 years and was defined by an unrelenting sense of optimism and experimentation.

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Much of his work drew on influences from the Renaissance and the abstract expressionist movement, but he remained resolutely individual in his approach, often rejecting artistic trends in favour of his own vision.

Mr Hockney’s formative years in Bradford left a long-lasting impression on his art.

He grew up in a working-class family and began drawing at an early age, despite little encouragement at Bradford Grammar School.

With the backing of his parents, he enrolled at art college and later the Royal College of Art, where he was known as a rebellious student.

He was warned that he could not graduate – in part because he had not done enough life drawings – to which he responded by painting Life Painting for a Diploma – a bold, unconventional piece that ultimately earned him the college’s gold medal in painting.

A breakthrough came in 1961, when Mr Hockney was featured in the Young Contemporaries exhibition alongside other rising stars of British pop art.

Although associated with the pop art movement, his work also contained strong expressionist influences.

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His artistic direction changed dramatically after moving to Los Angeles in 1964.

He was captivated by the Californian light and lifestyle, which became central themes in his work.

Using bold colours and acrylic paints, he created his iconic swimming pool series, including the renowned A Bigger Splash.

Mr Hockney also gained recognition for his portraits, such as Mr and Mrs Clark and Percy, and his innovative photo-collages like Pearblossom Highway.

He continued to push boundaries in later years, embracing new technology and producing art on iPads and other digital devices.

In the 1990s, Mr Hockney returned regularly to Yorkshire and began painting the local landscapes.

He eventually moved back full-time, settling in Bridlington and creating works inspired by the region’s countryside.

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One of his major pieces from this period, Bigger Trees Near Warter, is a 12-metre-wide oil painting made up of 50 panels.

His Yorkshire landscapes were featured in the Royal Academy’s 2012 exhibition, A Bigger Picture, which attracted 600,000 visitors.

Despite his decades-long residence in the US, Mr Hockney always considered himself “very English.”

He declined the chance to paint Queen Elizabeth II, stating he was “too busy” painting England.

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He did, however, design a stained glass window for Westminster Abbey in her honour, depicting hawthorn blossom from his native Yorkshire.

Following the loss of his hearing, he continued to paint for up to six hours a day, stating that the impairment allowed him to “see space clearer.”

Throughout his life, Mr Hockney remained a committed smoker, often wearing badges that read “End bossiness soon.”

Even in his final years, he found joy in the routine of painting, once saying: “I’m happiest when I’m painting.

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“If I can paint every day I don’t care about anything else.”

Are you a fan of David Hockney’s works? Let us know in the comments.

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Emergency services called to A1(M) Southbound after crash

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Emergency services called to A1(M) Southbound after crash

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Wales breaking news plus weather and traffic updates (Friday, June 12)

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Thousands of music fans are heading to Cardiff this summer to enjoy live music.

With Take That and Metallica taking the stage at the Principality Stadium, as well as the return of Blackweir Live featuring Lewis Capaldi and Pitbull, and a packed summer of events at Cardiff Castle, Transport for Wales has advised that train services are expected to be significantly busier than usual throughout June and July.

TfW has strengthened capacity on key routes and scheduled later services to accommodate attendees.

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Post-event queuing systems will be in place at both Cardiff Central and Cardiff Queen Street stations.

The following station arrangements will be in place:

  • Principality Stadium concerts (Take That & Metallica): Passengers heading to the Valleys or to the Vale of Glamorgan will be directed to Cardiff Queen Street, while a mainline queueing system will be at Cardiff Central. Queueing will start from 9.45pm at both stations.
  • Blackweir Live and Cardiff Castle concerts: While services will still be busy, Valleys and the Vale of Glamorgan passengers can use either station for their journey home.
  • For all Blackweir Live concerts, Cathays station and the station bridge will close at 10pm. Passengers will be directed to either Cardiff Central or Cardiff Queen Street stations.

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Monaco Grand Prix: Pierre Gasly regains third place after Alpine successfully appeal against penalties

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Alpine's Pierre Gasly pictured at the Barcelona-Catalunya Grand Prix

Pierre Gasly has been returned to third place in the Monaco Grand Prix after his Alpine team successfully appealed against a penalty for pit-lane speeding.

The Frenchman was demoted to seventh place after the race by a five-second penalty for exceeding the pit lane speed limit by 0.1km/h.

He was one of five drivers to be penalised for this during the race, an unusually high number.

A ‘right of review’ hearing requested by Alpine established that cars could legally drive a shorter distance in the pit lane than officials had used in their calculations.

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The stewards accepted Alpine’s argument, backed up by data, that Gasly had never exceeded the 60km/h limit.

The decision is a blow to Mercedes driver George Russell, who was given a drive-through penalty for pit-lane speeding which dropped him from third place at the time to 13th at the finish.

Russell’s Mercedes team, as well as the teams of the other drivers who were penalised, did not object to the decisions, even though they believed their drivers had not exceeded the limit.

Gasly committed two ‘offences’. The other drivers in addition to Russell were McLaren’s Oscar Piastri, Ferrari’s Lewis Hamilton and Gasly’s team-mate Franco Colapinto.

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Hamilton’s penalty did not affect his second place as Ferrari managed to serve it in a way that did not penalise him in terms of track position during a safety-car period.

Piastri, who has been dropped to fifth by Gasly’s reinstatement, lost three places in serving his penalty.

The verdict published by the stewards into the right of review hearing said that they had questioned the number of penalties for speeding when the third one occurred.

The statement said: “Race control promptly came back to the stewards stating it had made enquiries of the official timekeepers and was told that there was no issue and that the data was therefore accurate.”

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The pit-lane speed limit is measured by using a series of timing loops and the time taken to travel a specific distance along the pit lane.

The report said that changes to the pit lane this year had meant that the shortest possible route between the loops was 77 centimetres less than the distance used to calculate the limit.

Five of the six offences were by cars calculated to be doing 0.1km/h over the limit. The other was 0.4km/h over.

As a result the stewards decided Gasly had not exceeded the pit-lane speed limit.

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Trump’s support among independents has fallen, poll analysis shows

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Trump's support among independents has fallen, poll analysis shows

WASHINGTON (AP) — Independents have grown increasingly unhappy with President Donald Trump during his second term, a new AP-NORC polling analysis finds, particularly those without a college degree.

The analysis from researchers at The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research shows that while about half of independents without a college education had a positive view of Trump around the 2024 election, his approval with that group fell to about one-quarter this spring. That shift has erased the large education gap that existed among independents in the months before Trump took office for his second term, with independents now holding similarly negative views of the president regardless of their level of education.

The analysis was conducted by aggregating nearly two dozen AP-NORC polls conducted between July 2024 and April 2026, allowing for a deeper look at how support for Trump changed during several distinct periods, including the last six months of 2024, the first 100 days of Trump’s presidency, the summer of 2025 when the Big Beautiful Bill passed, last fall’s government shutdown and the beginning of the Iran war.

The compiled polling shows a steady decline among independents throughout Trump’s second term. His standing has also dropped among several small but important groups that moved toward him in the 2024 presidential election, including Black and Hispanic independents.

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More Americans than ever consider themselves independents, and they are among the groups that shifted toward Trump in the 2024 presidential election. Any erosion in that support could signal trouble for Trump and Republicans headed into the midterm elections, which are often seen as reflection of how voters feel about their governing party.

Tafari Torres, a senior research associate at NORC who co-authored the analysis, noted that while Democrats’ and Republicans’ views of Trump have held largely steady in his second term, independents’ opinions are still moving. “Independents are, broadly, the people who are reacting to the events and dropping in their support,” he said.

Dramatic declines during Trump’s first 100 days

Trump’s return to the White House was fueled, in part, by independent voters who saw him as the stronger candidate on key issues like the economy. The new analysis, which looks at Trump’s favorability and presidential approval ratings, shows that once he took the helm, their views soured quickly.

Independents without a college degree had a much more positive view of Trump than college-educated independents did during and just after the 2024 election, but that shifted in the first few months of his term. Positive views of Trump among independents without a college degree fell from 48% in the months before he returned to office to 31% in polling conducted during Trump’s first 100 days back in office. Those warm views declined even further, to about one-quarter, during the government shutdown and the early months of 2026.

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Only about 3 in 10 college-educated independents, by contrast, had a positive view of Trump before he returned to office, making their drop to about one-quarter much less dramatic.

“The decline among no-college independents was steeper and it was greater than the slight decline in college independents,” said Sean Collins, a research associate at NORC who co-authored the analysis. “That was surprising, especially given, when you think of Trump’s coalitions, those without college degrees is usually one of the ones that that stands out.”

Hispanic, younger independents grow disenchanted

Americans without a college degree have long been a key part of Trump’s coalition. But Trump also won in 2024 by making gains among groups that tend to support Democrats, including Hispanic adults.

About 4 in 10 independent voters — 42% — voted for Trump in 2024, up from 37% in the 2020 presidential election. Independent voters without a college degree were a little more likely to back Trump over former Vice President Kamala Harris in the last election, according to AP VoteCast, and Hispanic independents were about evenly split between the two.

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The picture looks much bleaker for the president now.

Nearly half of Hispanic independents — 46% — saw Trump favorably in the polling conducted around the presidential election. His approval among these adults dropped quickly in his second term, falling as low as 15% during last fall’s government shutdown before landing around one-quarter in the spring.

Younger independents also became less supportive of the president, while independents age 60 and older remained mostly stable. Other AP-NORC polling has pointed to Trump losing ground among younger Republicans over inflation concerns and Hispanic Americans growing increasingly discontented.

“The gains Trump appeared to make during the election, I don’t know if they’re sticking around. He’s experienced some significant shifts among those people,” Torres said. ”From our research, they don’t appear to be permanent gains.”

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The economy is frustrating many independents

Polling suggests that the economy as at the root of many Americans’ frustrations with Trump, including independents.

About half of independents who supported Trump in 2024 said inflation was the single most important factor for their vote, AP VoteCast found, and most expressed high levels of concern about the cost of food and gas.

More than a year into Trump’s second term, inflation remains high, fueled by gas prices that remain elevated as the Iran war continues. An AP-NORC poll conducted in April found that about 3 in 10 independents were “extremely” or “very” concerned about being able to afford groceries in the last few months, and a similar share were worried about being able to afford gas.

The analysis found that Americans’ views of the U.S. economy tend to align with their view of the president. Those with negative views of the country’s economy tended to have negative views of Trump, and about 8 in 10 independents described the U.S. economy this spring as poor.

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The latest AP-NORC polling from May found that only about 3 in 10 independents approve of how Trump is handling the economy, in line with the roughly 3 in 10 who said that at the beginning of his second term. The April poll found only about 1 in 10 independents — 12% — approved of how Trump was handling the cost of living.

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This AP-NORC analysis of 4,836 independents was conducted over 21 AP-NORC surveys, blocked into five time periods before and during President Donald Trump’s second term. Independents are classified as panelists who do not select that they identify with or lean toward either the Democratic or Republican Party.

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