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LARRY KUDLOW: No Money for Iran, Unless Tehran Changes Behavior and Meets Clear Performance Metrics

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LARRY KUDLOW: No Money for Iran, Unless Tehran Changes Behavior and Meets Clear Performance Metrics

As I’ve said so many times, President Trump is not going to make a bad deal with Iran.

And what we are learning from White House sources is an 80 percent to 85 percent chance of what they are calling the Islamabad memorandum of understanding. It could be completed in the next few days, maybe this weekend.

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Hat tip to Fox News digital for comprehensive coverage.

All of Mr. Trump’s red lines are included in this MoU. And importantly, the entire deal is premised on Iran changing its behavior in verifiable ways that meet clear performance benchmarks.  

The key points of this MoU begin with a plank that would prevent Iran from ever getting a nuclear weapon. That includes removal and destruction of already-enriched uranium.

It also includes a number of technical details where inspectors from the United Nations’ International Atomic Energy Administration and American personnel will be involved in the process of destroying, removing, and verifying the end of Iran’s enriched material.

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Additionally, Iran’s long-term nuclear ambitions will be ended. Technical inspection procedures will be included. Quote, “our approach here is to verify, verify, verify. And that the Iranians won’t get the benefit of the bargain unless they perform,” end quote. That is according to administration sources.

Also Iran must stop funding terrorism in the region. A full regional peace deal is included. Plus, Iran will agree to opening the Strait of Hormuz, and the blockade will then be lifted if Iran follows through.

Importantly, according to sources, Iran will receive no money upon signing the MoU. Any sanctions relief must be tied to actual performance. If they change their behavior, and start acting like a normal country in accordance with this deal, then money will be forthcoming.

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But after all, this is not the final deal, this is a memorandum of understanding. So hard bargaining on technical details and verification processes still lies ahead, even if this MoU is signed. That’s very, very important.

You might think of this as the beginning of the end of the war, but it’s not yet the end of the war.

Undoubtedly, though, Mr. Trump’s coercive diplomacy, or negotiations with bombs, is going to continue if Iran doesn’t measure up. 

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I have the feeling that Mr. Trump’s threat to destroy their infrastructure — bridges, power and water facilities — moved this MoU along pretty rapidly.

But performance incentives are the heart of this deal.

Behavior must change.

Trust, but verify.

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SpaceX becomes world’s 7th most valuable company after blockbuster market debut

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SpaceX becomes world's 7th most valuable company after blockbuster market debut
SpaceX’s long-awaited stock market debut on Friday delivered more than just a strong performance from a big name getting listed in recent memory, it instantly propelled Elon Musk‘s rocket and satellite company into the ranks of the world’s most valuable companies.

After raising $75 billion in the biggest initial public offering ever, SpaceX began trading under the ticker SPCX at $150, an 11% premium to its IPO price of $135. The stock surged as high as $176.52 during the session before ending the day at $160.95, a gain of nearly 19% from the offer price.

That rally was enough to catapult SpaceX into seventh place among the world’s most valuable listed companies, according to Companies Marketcap data. With a market value of about $2.1 trillion at Friday’s close, SpaceX now sits just behind Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), which is valued at $2.9 trillion, and ahead of a vast majority of the world’s corporate giants.

Also read: Elon Musk net worth tops combined wealth of next 4 billionaires after historic SpaceX debut

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Nvidia remains the world’s most valuable company with a market capitalization of $4.72 trillion, followed by Alphabet at $4.15 trillion, Apple at $4.06 trillion, Microsoft at $2.76 trillion, Amazon at $2.44, and TSMC at $2.9 trillion. SpaceX, at Rs 2.1 trillion, now occupies the seventh spot.

SpaceX IPO debut

Investor demand was evident throughout the session. More than 500 million shares changed hands on debut, a figure that approached Facebook’s first-day trading volume of about 580 million shares in 2012. The momentum did not stop when the closing bell rang.

SpaceX shares continued climbing in extended trading, rising close to 3.5% to $166.76 as of 6:30 p.m. ET. Roughly 16 million shares changed hands in post-market activity, adding to the more than 500 million traded during regular hours. The after-hours advance lifted the company’s market capitalization by another $80 billion, taking it to around $2.2 trillion.

Elon Musk becomes trillionaire

The blockbuster debut also marked a watershed moment for Musk personally. The surge in SpaceX shares pushed his net worth to $1.11 trillion, making him the world’s first trillionaire. According to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, Musk’s fortune now exceeds the combined wealth of Larry Page, Sergey Brin, Jeff Bezos and Larry Ellison, whose combined net worth stands at $1.089 trillion.The frenzy around the stock was fueled not only by institutional investors but also by retail traders eager to gain exposure to one of Musk’s flagship companies. Despite receiving a smaller-than-expected IPO allocation, retail investors piled into the stock on debut.
Read more: SpaceX to list today: Should Indian investors buy shares of Elon Musk’s biggest bet after missing the IPO?
According to a CNBC report, Data from VandaTrack showed SpaceX was the most-bought stock by retail traders on a net basis during Friday’s session, while it was also among the most-discussed names on Reddit’s WallStreetBets forum ahead of the listing.

What makes the enthusiasm particularly striking is that SpaceX remains loss-making. The company reported 2025 revenue of $18.67 billion and a net loss of $4.94 billion. Investors, however, appear focused on future opportunities across satellite broadband, launch services, defence contracts and AI-related businesses rather than current profitability.

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Musk is also expected to retain effective control of SpaceX following the IPO. Regulatory filings show he will hold about 82.4% of voting rights through Class B shares, which carry ten votes per share. Public investors, meanwhile, will own Class A shares that carry one vote per share.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

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What crypto investors need to know for tax season 2026

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What crypto investors need to know for tax season 2026
Tax season has a way of revealing how prepared or unprepared investors actually are. For crypto investors in India, this filing season carries more weight than before. The rules have not changed dramatically, but enforcement has, and the consequences of getting it wrong are more serious than most investors realise.

A New Act, The Same Obligations

The Income Tax Act, 2025 came into force on April 1, 2026, replacing the 1961 Act. For investors filing for FY 2025-26, the old Act’s provisions still govern your obligations. The core framework remains intact: a flat 30% tax on profits from Virtual Digital Assets, a 1% TDS on transfers exceeding Rs 10,000, no deductions except the cost of acquisition, and no ability to offset losses from one crypto asset against gains from another.

The new Act renumbers the governing sections and explicitly adds “crypto-asset” to the VDA definition, but the substance of the obligations has not changed. If you have been filing correctly under the old Act, the transition requires no dramatic adjustment. What has changed is the penalty framework, and that deserves your attention.

The Right Form, Filled Correctly

For FY 2025-26, investors file under ITR-2 if reporting crypto as capital gains or ITR-3 if crypto trading constitutes business income. Both forms contain a dedicated Schedule VDA section where all crypto transactions must be reported.
This is the step where most errors happen.Schedule VDA requires transaction-by-transaction entry, not just a summary of your net gains. Every trade, every swap, every disposal needs to be listed individually. Investors who have traded across multiple platforms, used DeFi protocols, or moved assets between wallets will find this the most demanding part of the process. The data needs to be accurate, complete, and consistent with what your exchange has already reported.

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Failing to report even a single crypto-to-crypto swap can trigger penalties for non-disclosure. A swap between two tokens is a taxable event in India, and many investors still treat it as a portfolio reshuffling rather than a reportable transaction. It is not.

Why Accuracy Matters More Than Ever This Year

Budget 2026 introduced a significant structural change: crypto exchanges, custodians, and wallet providers are now required to furnish user-level transaction statements directly to the Income Tax Department. This data is then cross-referenced against your ITR automatically. If your declared income in Schedule VDA does not match what your exchange has reported, the system flags it.


The Income Tax Department has already issued over 44,000 notices and detected more than Rs 888 crore in undisclosed VDA income. The department is actively using Annual Information Statements, exchange TDS filings, and blockchain analytics. The gap between what investors report and what the system can see is closing fast.
For investors who have used foreign exchanges, the picture becomes more complex from next year. India’s CBDT has confirmed alignment with the OECD’s Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework, with domestic enforcement targeted for April 1, 2027. This means international crypto holdings will be automatically visible to Indian tax authorities through cross-border data sharing. If you hold assets on overseas platforms, this year is the time to get your records in order.

The Most Common Mistakes And How to Avoid Them

After years of working in compliance, the errors we come across are often not intentional. They are the result of disorganised record-keeping and a poor understanding of what counts as a taxable event.The first mistake is using the wrong ITR form. Filing under ITR-1 when you have crypto income results in a defective return that the department will reject.

The second is incomplete Schedule VDA reporting. Staking rewards, airdrops, and DeFi income must be reported separately under income from other sources, not lumped together with trading gains. Each category is taxed differently and must be disclosed on its own.

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The third is TDS reconciliation. Every VDA transfer above the threshold leaves a 1% TDS footprint in your Form 26AS. Investors who do not verify this against their own transaction records risk either missing a refund they are entitled to or creating a mismatch that triggers scrutiny.

The fix for all three is the same: good records maintained throughout the year, not reconstructed in a hurry at filing time.

Compliance Is Not the Enemy of Participation

Compliance is often described as a burden that slows down innovation. However, a market where investors file accurately, platforms report transparently, and regulators have visibility is one that earns the trust it needs to grow.

India has one of the most active crypto investor bases in the world. Protecting that participation means filing correctly, staying current with regulatory changes, and treating tax obligations with the same seriousness as investment decisions.

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The rules are clear. The tools to comply exist. The only variable is whether investors choose to use them before the deadline or explain themselves after it.

(The author Rakhesh Raghunath is Head of Compliance, Mudrex)

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

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Uday Kotak questions SpaceX valuation, says only time will tell if we’re in ‘mega bubble’

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Uday Kotak questions SpaceX valuation, says only time will tell if we're in ‘mega bubble'
As SpaceX’s blockbuster stock market debut vaulted the company into the ranks of the world’s most valuable firms and made Elon Musk the world’s first trillionaire, Indian billionaire banker Uday Kotak posed a question: Are investors betting on the future of humanity, or are they witnessing a mega bubble in the making?

Reacting to SpaceX’s IPO and listing, the Kotak Mahindra Bank founder said the listing is “a true test for capitalism”, arguing that the company’s valuation cannot be explained through conventional frameworks. “The valuation does not fit any traditional matrix and is a huge bet on the future course of planet earth,” he said. “Only time will tell whether we, the human race, have arrived into the fairy tale world we grew up in as children, or are in a mega bubble,” he wrote in a post on X, formerly Twitter, on Saturday.

While questioning how markets should value a company such as SpaceX, Kotak also praised both Musk and the United States for making such an outcome possible. “Either ways, kudos to the man who came as an immigrant, and to the country that has allowed such boundless creativity to flourish despite all the risks it embeds,” he wrote.

SpaceX debut

Kotak’s comments came after a stellar debut that instantly propelled Elon Musk’s rocket and satellite company into the ranks of the world’s most valuable firms.

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After raising $75 billion in the biggest initial public offering ever, SpaceX began trading under the ticker SPCX at $150, an 11% premium to its IPO price of $135. The stock surged as high as $176.52 during the session before ending the day at $160.95, a gain of nearly 19% from the offer price.

That rally was enough to rocket SpaceX into seventh place among the world’s most valuable listed companies. With a market value of about $2.1 trillion at Friday’s close, SpaceX now sits just behind Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), which is valued at $2.9 trillion.


Investor demand was evident throughout the session. More than 500 million shares changed hands on debut, a figure that approached Facebook’s first-day trading volume of about 580 million shares in 2012.

SpaceX share demand surges further

The momentum did not stop when the closing bell rang. SpaceX shares continued climbing in extended trading, rising close to 3.5% to $166.76 as of 6:30 p.m. ET.
Roughly 16 million shares changed hands in post-market activity, adding to the more than 500 million traded during regular hours. The after-hours advance lifted the company’s market capitalization by another $80 billion to around $2.2 trillion.

SpaceX lifts Elon Musk into trillionaire territory

The blockbuster debut also marked a watershed moment for Musk personally. The surge in SpaceX shares pushed his net worth to $1.11 trillion, making him the world’s first trillionaire.According to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, Musk’s fortune now exceeds the combined wealth of Larry Page, Sergey Brin, Jeff Bezos and Larry Ellison. Together, the four billionaires are worth $1.089 trillion, less than Musk’s estimated net worth of $1.11 trillion.
According to a CNBC report, Data from VandaTrack showed SpaceX was the most-bought stock by retail traders on a net basis during Friday’s session, while it was also among the most-discussed names on Reddit’s WallStreetBets forum ahead of the listing.

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(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

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CMB.TECH: A Stronger Shipping Platform, But Not A Cheap One

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CMB.TECH: A Stronger Shipping Platform, But Not A Cheap One

CMB.TECH: A Stronger Shipping Platform, But Not A Cheap One

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Gold heads for second weekly loss on rate rise expectations

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Gold heads for second weekly loss on rate rise expectations
Gold headed for a second straight weekly loss on Friday as expectations of higher interest rates weighed on the non-yielding metal ahead of next week’s U.S. Federal Reserve meeting.

Spot gold was up 0.3% at $4,227.17 per ounce as of 2:15 p.m. ET (1815 GMT), and was down 2.3% for the week.

U.S. gold futures rose 3% to settle at $4,238.80.

“I think that the inflation ‌is going to ⁠linger ⁠for some time, even if oil prices do come down… we’ve heard this story before and there’s some degree of scepticism,” said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals.

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Oil prices fell over 3% after the news that a memorandum between the United States and Iran to halt the war in the Gulf could be signed as soon as Sunday, a Western source told Reuters on Friday. Iran’s ⁠Fars news ‌agency, however, denied that speculation, citing a source close to the negotiations. [O/R]


Gold has been under pressure since the conflict began at the end of ⁠February, on concerns that oil-driven inflation means central banks will keep interest rates elevated.
While investors regard gold as an inflation hedge, higher rates tend to weigh on the non-yielding metal. Traders are pricing in a 57% chance of a U.S. rate hike by December, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Data this week showed U.S. producer prices increased more than expected in May, while consumer inflation jumped above 4%.

Attention is also turning to the Federal Reserve’s June 16-17 ‌policy meeting, the first to be chaired by Kevin Warsh, when the market expects the bank to hold rates steady.

UBS has lowered its gold outlook, warning that delayed Fed rate ⁠cuts will pressure prices toward the $3,850-4,000/oz range in the near term.

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Elsewhere, Rolex raised the global price of its gold watches by an average 5% this month, marking a rare second annual increase for its main markets including Britain, Hong Kong and the U.S., according to two luxury research platforms and two dealers.

Spot silver rose 1.2% to $68.14 per ounce and palladium added 0.7% to $1,281.04, with both metals headed for weekly gains. Platinum fell 0.8% to $1,706.90 and was headed for a weekly loss.

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GOF: Lower Your Return Expectations, Not Your Conviction

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GOF: Lower Your Return Expectations, Not Your Conviction

GOF: Lower Your Return Expectations, Not Your Conviction

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Can The Eurozone Tolerate Higher Rates For Long?

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Can The Eurozone Tolerate Higher Rates For Long?

Euro Symbol On Top Of Coin Stacks Before Blue Financial Graph

MicroStockHub/iStock via Getty Images

By Sandra Rhouma

The market is pricing in higher euro rates through 2031. But can the region’s economy take them?

As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised its three key interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) on June

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AI's True Costs Limit Its Impact On Job Displacement

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Credo Technology: Hypergrowth Leader Solving The AI Connectivity Bottleneck

AI's True Costs Limit Its Impact On Job Displacement

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Geely to streamline operations, focus resources on Hong Kong-listed unit

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Geely to streamline operations, focus resources on Hong Kong-listed unit

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Inflation And The Fed

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Inflation And The Fed

Inflation And The Fed

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