Market Recap

While the final quarter of 2025 resulted in a more modest, +2.7%, gain for the US stock market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index, the year’s +17.9% advance caps a historical 3+ year run that has seen the

For the better part of a decade, the Silicon Valley mantra of “move fast and break things” has permeated the global business consciousness.

It suggests that speed is the ultimate competitive advantage and that failure is merely a stepping stone to success. While this philosophy might work for venture-backed software unicorns with millions in runway, it is proving to be a dangerous, often fatal, strategy for the average UK small business owner. For the proprietor of a logistics firm in Leeds or a digital agency in Manchester, “breaking things” usually means breaking cash flow, damaging client relationships, and risking insolvency.

Examining Reliability Standards In Competitive Digital Markets

In the digital realm, the “fail fast” methodology is often conflated with releasing buggy software, but in saturated markets, reliability is the primary differentiator. Consumers have become intolerant of friction; if a digital service fails to load or process a transaction, the user moves to a competitor instantly. This is particularly true in high-stakes industries where user trust is paramount and the technical infrastructure must be bulletproof.

Consider the highly competitive sectors where platform stability is directly tied to revenue. For example, operators vying to be the best online casinos UK users can visit must prioritise flawless uptime and security over experimental features. In such a crowded marketplace, a platform that “breaks” during a peak usage time does not just lose a transaction; it loses the customer’s lifetime value to a more reliable competitor. This principle applies across the digital spectrum, from e-commerce checkouts to SaaS dashboards. The user experience must be boringly predictable to be effective.

The Hidden Dangers Of Rapid Iteration Strategies

The concept of rapid iteration encourages businesses to launch minimum viable products (MVPs) and fix issues on the fly. However, this approach often underestimates the reputational damage caused by delivering subpar experiences to early adopters. In tight-knit local economies or niche B2B sectors, word travels fast. A business that gains a reputation for being unreliable or unfinished rarely gets a second chance to make a first impression. When a small business “fails fast,” it often depletes its limited capital reserves before it can rectify the error, leading to premature closure rather than the promised enlightenment.

Regional data highlights the stark reality of business fragility in the UK. The risks of instability are not distributed evenly across the country, with certain areas seeing alarming closure rates. Recent statistics reveal that 44.6% of new businesses incorporated in Hull since 2020 have closed, marking the highest new business closure rate in the UK for that period. This figure contrasts sharply with more affluent hubs, suggesting that in resource-constrained environments, the “fail fast” approach is simply a fast track to bankruptcy. Without the safety net of deep investor pockets, the cost of experimentation is often terminal.

Prioritising Operational Stability Over Constant Innovation

In the quest for the next big disruption, many founders neglect the operational bedrock that keeps a company alive. Innovation is expensive; stability pays the bills. The obsession with growth hacking often comes at the expense of establishing robust financial controls, supply chain resilience, and consistent customer service protocols. When the market turns volatile, it is the businesses with strong fundamentals, not the most innovative product roadmaps, that weather the storm.

The survival statistics for UK startups paint a sobering picture of the challenges facing new entrants. The drop-off rate after the initial excitement fades is precipitous. According to recent data, only 47% of start-ups registered in 2020 survived to 2023, and the long-term outlook is even starker with a 10-year survival rate of just 10%. These figures indicate that half of all new ventures do not have the operational stamina to last three years. This high attrition rate suggests that too many businesses are launching without a viable long-term model, perhaps encouraged by a culture that prioritises the “start” over the “sustain.”

Stability allows for compounding returns. A business that focuses on retaining existing customers through reliable service will eventually outperform a competitor that is constantly chasing new customer acquisition through flashy, untested initiatives. Operational stability also makes a business more attractive to lenders. In an era where access to finance is tightening, banks are looking for predictable cash flows and proven track records, not wild growth projections based on untested pivots.

Building A Sustainable Culture Of Measured Growth

The current economic landscape demands a shift in mindset from hyper-growth to sustainable resilience. The post-pandemic era has seen a significant contraction in the overall business population, driven largely by the exit of those who could not adapt to rising costs and operational pressures. The UK small business population fell from 5.94 million in 2020 to 5.64 million in 2025, representing a net loss of 300,000 enterprises. This contraction signals a flight to safety, where only the most operationally sound businesses are managing to keep their doors open.

This trend towards consolidation and caution is also reflected in the rise of non-employing sole traders. Many entrepreneurs are choosing to remain small and agile rather than taking on the risk and overhead of hiring staff and expanding premises. This is a rejection of the “scale at all costs” mentality. By keeping overheads low and focusing on profitability from day one, these micro-businesses are insulating themselves against market shocks. Measured growth allows a business owner to retain control, maintain quality standards, and ensure that every expansion step is funded by actual revenue rather than speculative debt.

Thailand’s once-robust manufacturing sector is facing a protracted slowdown, with factory capacity utilization hovering below 60 percent for the past two years, raising concerns about the country’s economic competitiveness and industrial policy effectiveness.

Key takeaways

• Thailand’s manufacturing sector is operating at below 60% capacity for two consecutive years, with only one-third of industries recovering to pre-pandemic lockdown levels.
• Ultra-low priced Chinese imports and the influx of Chinese FDI (21% of total by 2024) are displacing Thai manufacturers, particularly in rubber, plastics, and food production sectors.
•  Stagnant credit access since 2022 is preventing Thai manufacturers from upgrading technology and innovating, trapping the economy in a low-growth equilibrium that requires long-term financial policy intervention.

The manufacturing sector, which accounts for 24 percent of Thailand’s GDP, 15.7 percent of total employment, and approximately 80 percent of exports, has been operating in the doldrums despite government stimulus measures, according to recent analysis by Professor Archanun Kohpaiboon of Thammasat University.

Pandemic Recovery Remains Elusive

Data from Thailand’s Office of Industrial Economics reveals a troubling trend: in the first ten months of 2025, only one-third of industries achieved capacity utilization rates exceeding levels seen during the strictest COVID-19 lockdown period of April-December 2021. The sectors showing resilience include beverages, leather footwear, processed foods, kitchenware, and vehicle engines.

“The low and declining capacity utilization found in many industries indicate that the demand for locally manufactured products is weak,” Kohpaiboon noted, adding that while export performance has remained stable with Thailand maintaining a 1.3-1.5 percent global market share, domestic-oriented manufacturers face particularly acute challenges.

The China Factor

Analysts point to three primary factors behind the manufacturing malaise, with Chinese economic influence looming large in each.

First, an influx of ultra-low priced Chinese imports appears to have undermined government demand-boosting initiatives. Between October 2020 and October 2023, Thailand implemented its “half-half” subsidy program five times, spending THB234.5 billion (approximately $6.5 billion) to stimulate consumer spending. However, experts suggest these programs may have inadvertently increased demand for cheap Chinese imports rather than domestically produced goods.

Second, the surge in Chinese foreign direct investment has reshaped Thailand’s industrial landscape. By 2024, Chinese investors accounted for 21 percent of total FDI inflows. While this investment has brought capital, it has also led to displacement of Thai firms in key sectors.

Between January 2021 and October 2025, 3,796 Thai manufacturing firms deregistered while 650 new Chinese firms entered the market, particularly in rubber and plastics, food production, and fabricated metal products. Many of these Chinese-owned operations maintain limited supply chain linkages within Thailand, preferring to import inputs from China and thereby reducing demand for Thai-manufactured components.

Credit Crunch Compounds Problems

The third factor is a stagnation in credit extended to the manufacturing sector. After years of steady growth, lending to manufacturers has remained virtually flat from 2022 to 2025, constraining firms’ ability to upgrade technology, pursue innovation, or explore new market opportunities.

“Businesses experienced great financial strain during the pandemic and were not able to get adequate financial support,” Kohpaiboon observed, noting that government pandemic measures focused primarily on worker relief rather than keeping businesses operational.

Call for Strategic Intervention

To revitalize the sector, experts are calling for a fundamental shift in policy approach. Rather than short-term stimulus measures, Kohpaiboon argues the government needs a comprehensive strategy to improve firms’ access to long-term financial resources.

“These activities will incur short-term investment costs and need to be carried out continuously,” he said. “They cannot be achieved by relying solely on short-term financing, such as commercial bank lending.”

The analysis warns that the current low-capacity utilization is trapping Thailand in a low-growth equilibrium, representing a critical gap in policymaking that demands urgent attention.

As Thailand navigates increasing regional competition and technological disruption, the health of its manufacturing sector will prove pivotal to the nation’s economic trajectory. With Chinese competition intensifying and domestic industrial capacity languishing, the pressure is mounting on Bangkok to craft more effective, long-term industrial policies.

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Mark Dehring

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining CSL’s results presentation for the first half of the 2026 financial year. I’m Mark Dehring, CSL’s Head of Investor Relations. Please note, this briefing is being webcast.

We have a lot to get through today. But as usual, I’d like to draw your attention to the important disclaimer on your screen. A copy of this, along with our other ASX materials, have been published on the CSL and the ASX websites. You will also have seen announcement we made to the ASX yesterday relating to the appointment of Gordon Naylor as Interim Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director. We’ll hear from Gordon shortly.

But before we do, I’d like to introduce our other speakers today. With me here in Melbourne is Ken Lim. Ken has been our CFO since October last year. Prior to that, he was our Chief Strategy Officer and has previously led our Seqirus business unit. Also here is Chief Commercial Officer, Andy Schmeltz. Andy joined CSL in 2023 as Executive Vice President, CSL Behring. And last year, his role was expanded to include CSL Vifor. And finally, we have Dave