TLDR:

• Strategy is raising over $130M daily in 2025, marking its highest-ever annual capital-raising pace. 
• Historical BTC data shows median 12-month forward returns of +133% from current price MA levels. 
• Even at a compressed 0.8x mNAV, covering preferred dividends would require only 6.6% dilution. 
• MSTR’s monthly trading volume of $54.79B dwarfs its $148M dividend bill, limiting dilution risk. 

MSTR, MicroStrategy’s stock ticker, has become the center of a heated debate as Bitcoin market stress tests the company’s financial structure.

Analysts tracking the firm’s capital-raising activity say Strategy is not just holding on through the current downturn, it is actively accumulating Bitcoin at an accelerated pace.

The numbers behind this argument are drawing significant attention from both bulls and bears in the market.

MSTR’s Balance Sheet Withstands Bitcoin Market Pressure

Strategy’s capital-raising pace in 2025 is on track to be the highest in the company’s history. The firm is averaging over $130 million raised per trading day this year. Even if that access were completely shut off, the math still favors the company’s position.

To illustrate the scale, analyst Adam Livingston scaled the balance sheet down by one million times. At that ratio, the company holds $53,400 in Bitcoin and owes $1,712 annually in preferred dividends. That works out to roughly $148 per month, a negligible obligation relative to the asset base.

Livingston also pulled Bitcoin’s weekly historical price data going back to July 2010. He filtered for periods where Bitcoin traded within ±5% of today’s four-year moving average multiple. That produced 34 historical weekly observations with full forward-return data.

The median forward Bitcoin returns from those comparable historical points are striking: +50% over six months, +133% over 12 months, +232% over 18 months, and +306% over 24 months. If history holds, Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings are positioned for a substantial recovery.

Stress-Testing the Nightmare Scenario for MSTR

Bears have pointed to preferred dividend obligations as a potential pressure point for Strategy. However, even under a severe stress test, the numbers suggest the concern is overstated. The analysis modeled a scenario where MSTR’s mNAV compresses from 1.3x to 0.8x.

At that compressed multiple, the stock would fall from roughly $123.97 to around $76. Market capitalization would drop from approximately $43.9 billion to $27 billion.

Even then, covering a full year of preferred dividends through common stock issuance would require only 6.6% dilution.

On a monthly basis, that comes to roughly 0.55% dilution per month. Meanwhile, monthly MSTR dollar trading volume runs approximately $54.79 billion.

The monthly dividend bill of $148.35 million represents only 0.27% of that volume, a fraction that the market can absorb without disruption.

Strategy’s trading volume alone provides a natural buffer against the preferred dividend risk. The company does not need extraordinary measures to meet its obligations, even in a depressed market environment.

For investors who hold a constructive long-term view on Bitcoin, the argument that Strategy’s structure is unsustainable becomes increasingly difficult to support.

Bitcoin moved closer to the $64,000 level on Saturday after fresh geopolitical developments improved risk sentiment. The cryptocurrency recovered from earlier lows and maintained positive momentum throughout the trading session. Market participants responded after US President Donald Trump confirmed that a new agreement with Iran will be signed soon.

Bitcoin Gains Strength Following US-Iran Agreement Announcement

Bitcoin traded near $63,950 at the time of reporting and recorded modest gains during the day. The cryptocurrency advanced from around $63,500 earlier in the session and sustained its recovery. As a result, the market approached the important $64,000 psychological level once again.

The upward move followed statements from Donald Trump regarding ongoing negotiations between the United States and Iran. According to the announced timeline, both countries are expected to finalize a new agreement within the next day. Consequently, traders reassessed risk conditions across several financial markets.

The latest development also highlighted plans to reopen the Strait of Hormuz after the agreement takes effect. The waterway remains one of the world’s most important energy shipping routes. Therefore, expectations of normalized maritime activity supported broader market confidence.

Hormuz Reopening Prospects Reduce Geopolitical Concerns

The Strait of Hormuz carries a significant portion of global crude oil exports each day. Any disruption in the region often affects commodity prices and financial markets. However, expectations of reopening reduced concerns surrounding supply-chain interruptions.

At the same time, the proposed agreement focuses on long-term restrictions related to Iran’s nuclear programme. US officials continue efforts to secure commitments aimed at limiting future nuclear development activities. Consequently, the agreement represents a major diplomatic development in the region.

Geopolitical tensions have influenced digital asset markets several times during recent years. Bitcoin often reacts to changes in global risk perception and macroeconomic conditions. Therefore, easing regional uncertainty contributed to stronger sentiment across the cryptocurrency sector.

Bitcoin Extends Recovery Amid Broader Market Stability

Bitcoin’s latest advance occurred during a period of consolidation across the crypto market. The asset maintained stability despite several macroeconomic events influencing trading activity this week. As a result, buyers continued supporting prices near key technical levels.

The market also received additional support from comments made by Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. Earlier on Saturday, Sharif indicated that a US-Iran agreement could be finalized within twenty-four hours. Consequently, expectations surrounding diplomatic progress strengthened throughout the day.

Bitcoin has remained sensitive to major international developments because of its growing role in global financial markets. Large geopolitical events frequently influence short-term trading behavior and market sentiment. Therefore, diplomatic breakthroughs often affect cryptocurrency valuations alongside traditional assets.

The current recovery follows several sessions of price fluctuations driven by macroeconomic and geopolitical headlines. Bitcoin previously faced pressure as traders assessed inflation data and central bank expectations. However, improving geopolitical conditions helped offset some of those concerns.

Meanwhile, the broader digital asset market showed signs of stabilisation during the latest trading session. Several major cryptocurrencies also posted modest gains as risk appetite improved. Consequently, overall market sentiment remained constructive heading into the weekend.

Bitcoin continues to trade below recent highs, yet it has preserved support above key price zones. Market participants now focus on developments surrounding the expected agreement and its implementation. Any progress regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could influence sentiment across global markets.

The latest rebound highlights how geopolitical developments can affect cryptocurrency performance within short periods. Improved diplomatic relations often reduce uncertainty and support broader market stability. As a result, Bitcoin approached the $64,000 mark while traders responded to expectations of reduced regional tensions.

TLDR:

• TAO price surged over 24% on June 13, closing at $264 after opening near $212 in the session
• RSI bottomed in the low 30s, matching the same zone that marked the prior three swing lows on TAO
• Bittensor subnet activity had been accelerating quietly while the TAO price was trending lower
• The $280 to $320 zone is now the key resistance band TAO must reclaim to confirm the bullish trend

The TAO price recorded one of its largest single-day gains of 2025 on June 13, closing above $264 after opening near $212.

The move ended a seven-month downtrend that had pushed the asset from the $500 region into the low $200s. Multiple technical signals aligned ahead of the breakout.

Sentiment had turned deeply bearish in the weeks before the reversal candle printed.

Technical Signals Preceded the TAO Price Reversal

The TAO price had been compressing for months before Thursday’s session. Each rally attempt during the downtrend met fresh selling pressure near established resistance zones. Buyers were unable to hold any meaningful recovery, and many traders had written off the chart entirely.

However, momentum indicators were signaling a shift beneath the surface. The RSI had bottomed in the low 30s, the same region that marked the three prior swing lows on the chart.

Analyst account @2xnmore noted that oscillators were already curling higher before price confirmed the move.

The MACD histogram had also been compressing for several weeks heading into the reversal. That compression pointed to sellers losing steam rather than buyers gaining strength. It was a quiet warning sign that most traders overlooked during the grind lower.

Volume on the reversal candle removed any doubt about the session. It dwarfed anything seen across the prior two months of sideways action. That kind of participation on a single green candle separates genuine reversals from dead-cat bounces.

Bittensor Network Activity and the Road Ahead for TAO Price

While the TAO price was falling, Bittensor’s subnet activity was quietly accelerating. That divergence between price and network growth went largely unnoticed by retail participants. Institutional attention toward the network, however, had reportedly been building well before Thursday’s session.

The broader AI infrastructure narrative around Bittensor also remained intact throughout the drawdown. Discussions tied to co-founder Jacob Steeves and the network’s role in decentralized AI were still in early stages.

AI-related tokens have historically moved in cycles, with the first recovery candle rarely marking the full extent of a move.

The zone between $280 and $320 now becomes the critical area to monitor. That range previously acted as support before the breakdown and must be reclaimed on a closing basis. A sustained move through that band would add weight to the bullish case.

The 200-day moving average continues to serve as the long-term dividing line for TAO. Reclaiming major support after a multi-month downtrend is one of the stronger technical setups on any chart. Traders who were stopped out near the lows are now watching from the sidelines as price moves higher.

TLDR:

• Uniswap tokenized securities are now live on the web app, wallet, and API for eligible users.
• Over $9.1 billion has been swapped in real-world asset pools across 2.6 million transactions.
• Uniswap v4 hooks allow issuers to set KYC gates, allowlists, and dynamic fees at pool level.
• Builders using the Uniswap API need no extra configuration to expose tokenized assets to users. 

Uniswap tokenized securities are now accessible across the platform’s web app, wallet, and API. Users can trade tokenized versions of SpaceX, Apple, Tesla, and NVIDIA directly through Uniswap products.

Previously, these assets existed on the protocol but lacked integration into consumer-facing surfaces. That gap has now closed, opening regulated asset markets to a broader onchain audience.

Uniswap Opens Access to Real-World Asset Trading

The launch marks a notable expansion of Uniswap’s real-world asset coverage. To date, more than $9.1 billion has moved through real-world asset pools on the protocol.

Those transactions span over 2.6 million swaps across more than 140,000 wallets. As Uniswap noted on X, “The world’s value is moving onchain.”

Equity, fixed income, and yield-bearing instruments represent the bulk of global financial assets. These asset classes are gradually migrating to blockchain infrastructure as regulatory clarity improves.

Uniswap’s integration positions the protocol as an early access point for that transition. The timing aligns with growing institutional and retail interest in tokenized finance.

Eligible users can access tokenized securities through the Explore Page on the Uniswap Web App. The process mirrors any standard token swap on the platform.

Users connect a wallet, select the desired asset, and confirm the transaction. However, issuer-imposed KYC requirements, whitelists, and jurisdictional restrictions may apply.

Uniswap v4’s hook infrastructure also supports issuer-configured transfer restrictions and dynamic fee structures at the pool level. This gives issuers the ability to manage compliance without sacrificing liquidity access.

Geographic gates and allowlists can be embedded directly into pool logic. That level of configurability is central to supporting regulated asset markets onchain.

Protocol Infrastructure Powers Builders and Issuers

Builders can integrate tokenized stocks, bonds, and yield-bearing assets through the existing Uniswap API. No additional configuration is needed for developers to expose these assets to their users.

The same routing and liquidity infrastructure already in use for crypto assets now extends to securities. That continuity reduces friction for teams building on top of Uniswap.

Uniswap’s protocol has processed over $4.4 trillion in cumulative volume since launch. That liquidity depth makes it a practical backend for tokenized asset markets.

Onchain assets also trade outside traditional market hours, unlike their TradFi equivalents. That availability is a structural advantage as global adoption grows.

Assets settled onchain are composable across wallets, applications, and DeFi protocols. Any agent or interface with API access can tap into the same liquidity pools.

This composability supports the broader buildout of onchain financial infrastructure. It also reduces fragmentation across tokenized asset platforms.

UNI traded at $2.54 at the time of publication, up 0.43% in the prior 24 hours.

Source: Coingecko

Weekly gains stood at 4.84%, reflecting moderate market momentum around the announcement.

However, the two largest incidents were not simple smart-contract exploits of the type AI could engineer.

In one, a North Korea-linked group drained about $285 million from Drift Protocol after a six-month social-engineering campaign that won it admin access. For the other, the attacker exploited a single-verifier flaw that allowed roughly $292 million to be siphoned from Kelp DAO.

Another example hit on Tuesday, when Humanity Protocol, a decentralized human-identity service, lost over $30 million to a private-key compromise. CoinDesk found that a hacker gained access to three out of six private keys on one employee’s laptop,

Therein is the problem. While the most obvious smart-contract prompts may be exactly the ones Anthropic’s filters are designed to catch, the largest losses have not needed a contract bug.

The exploits, Ledger’s Guillemet noted, come from familiar weak points: social engineering, bad signing flows, exposed keys and human error.

A model like Fable does not need to hand over a finished exploit to change the economics of an attack. It can read public repositories, compare old versions of software, summarize audit reports and draft convincing messages that look for the small operational mistakes humans miss.

“These exploits remain rooted in social engineering and human error. “

A defender, in such an environment, has to secure every key path, every dependency, every signing flow and every privileged account. Because AI accelerates the scouting phase, the final signing step becomes more important. Private keys need to sit somewhere a compromised laptop cannot reach, and users need a trusted screen that shows what they are actually approving.

Strategy’s executive chairman Michael Saylor has defended the company’s first reported Bitcoin sale since 2022, arguing that the ability to sell BTC—at least when it’s required to back certain financial obligations—is a prerequisite for the firm to keep issuing “digital credit.”

The defense comes after Strategy disclosed the sale in a June 1 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission: the company offloaded 32 BTC, a move that contrasted with Saylor’s widely repeated “never sell your Bitcoin” message. Speaking at BTC Prague, Saylor framed the decision as part of a broader credit thesis for Bitcoin-based financial products.

Key takeaways

• Strategy disclosed a June 1 SEC filing showing it sold 32 BTC for the first time since 2022.
• Saylor says Bitcoin must remain sellable so digital credit products can retain value and support dividend- and credit-linked obligations.
• He described Strategy’s STRC preferred stock as a “digital credit” instrument designed to route value from its Bitcoin balance sheet.
• Saylor claims digital credit could support yield-bearing crypto financial products and cited yields up to 8% for such structures.
• Apyx’s apxUSD stablecoin depegged amid BTC and STRC declines, illustrating how collateral volatility can test these systems.

Why Strategy chose to sell Bitcoin

In a June 1 SEC filing, Strategy disclosed its first reported Bitcoin sale since 2022, selling 32 BTC. The transaction stood in tension with Saylor’s long-running public stance that Bitcoin should not be sold.

In an interview with Cointelegraph at BTC Prague, Saylor argued that companies building Bitcoin-backed finance cannot treat BTC as untouchable capital. Instead, they need the flexibility to sell holdings when necessary to maintain the economic basis of credit instruments—particularly those tied to dividends and other payouts.

“If the company’s policy is that we won’t sell the Bitcoin, then the credit won’t have value and the equity won’t have value,”
he said, adding:
“The company is in the business of selling digital credit. The credit is backed by capital. Bitcoin is capital.”

“Digital credit” as a new use for the Bitcoin balance sheet

Saylor expanded on the concept by positioning Strategy’s financial products as components of a credit market built on Bitcoin holdings. In his explanation, instruments such as Strategy’s STRC preferred stock function as “digital credit,” leveraging the company’s Bitcoin treasury to meet credit obligations.

Crucially, Saylor also tied this framework to Strategy’s capital strategy. For the company, these securities have become a key path to raise funding that can then be used to acquire additional Bitcoin. In other words, the sale—however limited—should be viewed less as abandoning a core Bitcoin conviction and more as enabling a loop intended to sustain issuance of Bitcoin-backed credit products.

Yield claims and the collateral test from apxUSD

Saylor described digital credit markets as an emerging “trillion-dollar opportunity” in finance, arguing they could enable yield-bearing digital money products. He also suggested that these structures may offer yields of up to 8%, which he said is multiple times higher than traditional savings accounts.

Part of his argument is that digital credit could change how participants think about credit and yield while drawing capital into the Bitcoin ecosystem. He pointed to projects operating within this model, including Saturn and Apyx, and emphasized that yield-bearing products built on top of digital credit can face real-world stress—sometimes quickly.

On June 4, Apyx Finance’s dividend-backed synthetic stablecoin apxUSD reportedly depegged, trading as low as $0.90. At the time, Bitcoin was trading below $63,000 and STRC shares had fallen below their $100 par value.

According to Apyx, the decline in STRC—apxUSD’s primary collateral asset—reduced the protocol’s reserve value. The company also pointed to falling Bitcoin prices, thinning liquidity, and derivative-driven market dynamics as contributing factors, citing a post on X from Apyx.

At the time of Cointelegraph’s reporting, apxUSD was trading around $0.96, still below its $1 peg, as tracked by CoinGecko.

What this exchange between “never sell” and sellability means

The core tension in the story is not merely reputational; it goes to how investors and counterparties should interpret Bitcoin as collateral. Saylor’s argument suggests that Bitcoin treasury companies must preserve the option to sell in order to keep credit instruments credible—particularly when those instruments depend on the value of collateral and the ability to cover obligations.

Meanwhile, the apxUSD episode underscores how sensitive these systems can be when collateral benchmarks move in tandem. When STRC falls below par and Bitcoin weakens, collateral values and liquidity conditions can deteriorate at the same time, putting pressure on mechanisms designed to maintain stablecoin pegs.

For readers watching the evolution of Bitcoin-based credit, the takeaway is practical: the “digital credit” thesis depends on collateral behavior and on whether protocols can manage volatility in a way that sustains promised yield and payout structures without breaking pegs.

With Strategy’s disclosed sale and apxUSD’s depeg both tied to a period of BTC and collateral weakness, the next question for the market is whether future issuances, liquidity provisions, and collateral management techniques will reduce the frequency and severity of these stress events—or whether such drawdowns will continue to be part of the risk profile of yield-bearing Bitcoin credit products.