India’s crypto tax checks have become stricter after the Income Tax Department issued more than 44,000 notices linked to virtual digital asset filings.

The department found more than Rs 888 crore, or about $104 million, in undisclosed VDA income, according to The Economic Times. The figures show how tax officials are using exchange data, TDS filings, and investor returns to track mismatches.

India keeps 30% VDA tax in place

India’s core crypto tax rules remain unchanged for FY 2025-26. Gains from virtual digital assets are taxed at a flat 30%, while eligible transfers face a 1% tax deducted at source.

The Income Tax Department says VDA income is taxed without deductions, except the cost of acquisition. Losses from one crypto asset also cannot be used to reduce gains from another asset.

Schedule VDA becomes a key filing test

Investors must use ITR-2 when reporting crypto as capital gains. Those treating crypto trading as business income must use ITR-3. Both forms include Schedule VDA for detailed transaction reporting.

Schedule VDA does not allow investors to report only net gains. Each trade, swap, disposal, and taxable transfer must be entered separately. A crypto-to-crypto swap can also create a taxable event.

Exchange data raises mismatch risks

Budget 2026 added tighter reporting duties for exchanges, custodians, and wallet providers. These entities must send user-level transaction data to the Income Tax Department.

That data allows the department to compare investor filings with exchange records. A mismatch between Schedule VDA, Form 26AS, TDS records, and exchange reports can trigger a notice.

Offshore holdings face closer review

The compliance net may widen further from 2027. India is aligning with the OECD Crypto-Asset Reporting Framework, which supports cross-border sharing of crypto account data.

As previously reported by crypto.news, India has already moved toward tighter digital-asset oversight. Recent rules require platforms to submit user-level transaction data, while overseas crypto holdings may become easier for authorities to trace.

The latest notices show that crypto tax filing in India has moved beyond self-reporting alone. Investors who used multiple exchanges, DeFi platforms, or offshore accounts now face a higher burden to keep full records.

The filing risk is not limited to large traders. Missing staking income, airdrops, wallet transfers, or TDS reconciliation can create questions during review. The department’s message is clear: crypto investors must file accurately before enforcement reaches them.

US President Donald Trump says a memorandum of understanding aimed at ending the US–Iran conflict is slated to be signed on Sunday, even though Iranian officials have previously questioned the timing. Trump also claimed that the “Hormuz Strait” would be opened to all immediately after the signing.

The proposed agreement—mediated by Pakistan—would extend a ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. While Pakistan’s prime minister said finalization could occur within 24 hours, Iran has not confirmed Sunday as the signing date, leaving traders to weigh the prospect of de-escalation against the risk of further delays.

Key takeaways

• Trump says the US–Iran memorandum is scheduled for Sunday signing and that shipping access through the Strait of Hormuz would follow immediately after.
• Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said the agreement could be finalized within 24 hours, with electronic signing likely shortly afterward.
• Iran has indicated the memorandum would not be signed “tomorrow,” pointing instead to “coming days,” creating near-term timeline uncertainty.
• Analysts expect a peace-related improvement in risk sentiment to benefit crypto—particularly Bitcoin—after months of geopolitics-driven pressure.
• Spot Bitcoin ETF flows have been negative for five straight weeks, with CoinShares research previously linking recent digital asset outflows to geopolitics and interest-rate uncertainty.

Sunday signing claim vs. Iran’s timeline uncertainty

In a Saturday post on Truth Social, Trump said: “The Deal is scheduled to get signed tomorrow,” adding that once signed, “the Hormuz Strait is OPEN TO ALL.” The statement places the signing squarely on Sunday, setting a clear expectation for immediate follow-on steps that could affect shipping and energy markets.

Pakistan, which has been mediating between the US and Iran, also indicated progress. According to remarks attributed to Pakistani leadership on X, an agreement could be reached within 24 hours.

However, Iran has not confirmed Trump’s timeline. An Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson, Esmaeil Baghaei, told state media earlier that the memorandum would not be signed on Sunday and could instead occur “in the coming days.” That clarification matters because it suggests the ceasefire-extension and Strait-of-Hormuz reopenings may depend on a final date agreed by all parties—not just on public statements from Washington and intermediaries.

The deal in question is described as a memorandum of understanding. It is expected to extend the ceasefire between the US and Iran for 60 days and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Still, until Iran confirms the signing date and details, markets may treat Sunday as a scenario rather than a certainty.

Why the Strait of Hormuz matters for crypto risk appetite

During the conflict, the naval blockade has reportedly choked around 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supply, according to the article’s summary. That kind of disruption can spill into macro conditions—raising energy costs, influencing inflation expectations, and amplifying risk premiums across asset classes.

Crypto has not been immune. The same disruption has been linked to a sentiment shock that “pressed crypto markets for months,” reflecting how geopolitical escalation can tighten financial conditions and reduce appetite for volatile assets.

If de-escalation proceeds as envisioned—particularly reopening the Strait of Hormuz—investors may look for improved macro visibility and a broader shift back toward “risk-on” behavior. In practice, that can translate into increased demand for high-beta assets like Bitcoin, especially when market participants believe liquidity constraints may ease.

What analysts are watching for Bitcoin and ETF flows

Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe said a peace deal between Iran and the US could trigger a “surge in Bitcoin,” alongside positive ETF flows. His thesis is tied to liquidity returning to risk assets once uncertainty fades.

Van de Poppe’s view also comes alongside ongoing data on Bitcoin ETF performance. According to the referenced SoSoValue tracking, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded about $315.84 million in net outflows for the week ended Friday—marking the fifth consecutive week of outflows for Bitcoin-linked crypto funds. Persistent redemptions are important because they can offset spot buying from other parts of the market, dampening upside momentum even if headlines improve.

Separately, CoinShares head of research James Butterfill told Cointelegraph earlier that recent outflows from digital asset investment products were driven primarily by geopolitics. In that account, uncertainty around the Iran conflict was seen as weighing on expectations for interest rates—an interaction that can influence the valuation and risk appetite of crypto assets.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading around $64,491, up roughly 1.5% over 24 hours. While that immediate move suggests some buyers respond to improving headlines, the broader ETF trend indicates the market’s positioning remains cautious.

De-escalation is likely beneficial—but the deal still has execution risk

The clearest tension in the story is the gap between declared signing timing and Iran’s stated uncertainty. Trump’s “tomorrow” claim and Pakistan’s expectation of near-term finalization set a near-term catalyst in motion. Yet Iran’s messaging that the memorandum would not be signed Sunday implies that execution risk remains.

For traders and long-horizon investors, this is more than diplomatic theater. If the signing is delayed, markets that priced a rapid reduction in geopolitical risk could reverse quickly—particularly in a market already contending with ongoing ETF outflows. On the other hand, if the memorandum is signed and implementation steps begin, the energy and macro channel that has weighed on sentiment could start to unwind.

Even in optimistic scenarios, investors will likely track whether reopening steps for the Strait of Hormuz are actually operational, not just announced. That practical follow-through is what determines whether the conflict’s macro impacts—energy disruption and related inflation fears—turn into a relief factor rather than another unresolved headline.

Going forward, the key question is whether Iran ultimately confirms Sunday signing—or whether the memorandum shifts further into “coming days.” Readers should also watch for whether any post-signing commitments translate into measurable changes for shipping and energy-market expectations, since that is where crypto sentiment has been most sensitive so far.

CoinFund founder Jake Brukhman said the Anthropic export-control dispute shows why decentralized AI networks are gaining attention as a possible counterweight to centralized model control.

In a June 13 X post, Brukhman said AI models are a centralizing force and a major target for government control. He linked that view to Anthropic’s decision to comply with a U.S. directive that forced it to suspend access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5.

Anthropic said the order required it to block access for foreign nationals, including foreign-national employees, whether inside or outside the United States. The company said it disabled both models for all users to meet the directive, while other Claude models remained available.

Anthropic shutdown highlights distributed GPU training

Brukhman said decentralized networks can act as a counterbalance because AI’s first hard problem is access to large-scale compute. “The answer is simple: there is enough commodity GPU compute in the world to compete on the frontier,” he wrote, adding that new training methods are needed to use it.

He named Gensyn, Prime Intellect, Bagel, Pluralis, Nous Research, Macrocosmos AI, and Covenant as teams working on distributed training. He said their work shows that decentralized training is possible, cheaper, and nearly as efficient as centralized systems, though the sector still faces technical limits.

Pluralis model draws business focus

Brukhman also pointed to the business problem facing open-source AI. He argued that open models can be useful but often lack a revenue model strong enough to support frontier training costs.

He said Pluralis has proposed one answer by splitting model weights among participants. In his view, that structure can support tokenized AI models because no single participant holds the full model, while the network can still provide access to the system.

Broader AI pressure

As previously reported by crypto.news, Anthropic launched Fable 5 only days before the shutdown, presenting it as a Mythos-class model with added safeguards. The same report said some cybersecurity, biology, chemistry, and distillation requests would fall back to Claude Opus 4.8.

Earlier reports also showed the scale of AI infrastructure demand. Blackstone and Apollo were lining up about $36 billion in debt financing for Anthropic’s Google TPU expansion. Separate reporting on open AI infrastructure said concentrated compute access can leave whole regions dependent on a few providers.

Brukhman framed the moment as a choice between centralized AI and public AI on open networks. “This is the moment of truth,” he wrote, asking whether AI will fall under “censorship and unilateral government control” or move toward decentralized systems.

US President Donald Trump said a deal to end the fighting between the US and Iran is scheduled to be signed on Sunday, despite officials in Tehran previously casting doubt on the timeline. 

“The Deal is scheduled to get signed tomorrow, and immediately after it is signed, the Hormuz Strait is OPEN TO ALL,” said Trump on Truth Social on Saturday. 

Source: Donald Trump

Pakistan, which is mediating talks between the US and Iran, also signaled an agreement could be reached within 24 hours. 

The deal, a memorandum of understanding, is expected to extend the ceasefire between the US and Iran for 60 days and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. 

The naval blockade has choked 20% of the world’s supply of oil and liquefied natural gas, which has led to higher global asset prices and a sentiment shock that has pressured crypto markets for months. 

“We are closer to a peace deal than ever before,” Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said on X on Saturday. “With finalisation likely expected in the next 24 hours, Pakistan is preparing for the electronic signing of the peace deal immediately after, followed by technical level talks next week.” 

Iran has not confirmed the Sunday signing. 

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei told state media earlier that the memorandum wouldn’t be signed on Sunday, but could happen “in the coming days.” 

“We will have to wait and see about the exact date of the signing of the memorandum of understanding, although it will not be tomorrow,” Baghaei said.

Analysts say peace deal will benefit crypto

Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe said a peace deal between Iran and the US will likely prompt a surge in Bitcoin, along with positive ETF flows. 

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded about $315.84 million in net outflows for the week ended Friday, marking the fifth consecutive week of outflows for the Bitcoin-linked crypto funds. 

Related: Bitcoin tags $63.2K as BTC price action ignores inflation, Iran Hormuz closure

“Liquidity will pour back into risk-on assets as liquidity will seek for an opportunity and after SpaceX IPO was done, most likely this will go towards crypto,” he added. 

On Wednesday, CoinShares head of research James Butterfill told Cointelegraph the recent outflow from digital asset investment products was being primarily driven by geopolitics, with uncertainty around the Iran conflict weighing on the outlook for interest rates.

Bitcoin was trading at $64,491 at the time of writing, up 1.5% over the past 24 hours. 

Magazine: Bitcoin, the ‘canary in the coal mine,’ XRP transaction demand falls 91.5%: Market Moves

The Trump administration’s move to limit foreign access to Anthropic’s most capable AI models was reportedly sparked by security concerns raised through industry channels, according to a Wall Street Journal report. The episode culminated in export controls that forced Anthropic to pull its latest release from public access.

As U.S. officials acted quickly on the perceived risk, decentralized AI-focused tokens also rallied over the same period, underscoring how government interventions in centralized AI can rapidly reshape expectations across the broader crypto AI sector.

Key takeaways

• According to The Wall Street Journal, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy contacted senior U.S. officials after researchers found a way to prompt Anthropic’s Fable 5 model into producing information that could be used for cyberattacks.
• A White House scramble followed, including outreach to Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei and disagreement over how serious and actionable the risk was.
• Anthropic said in a blog post that the U.S. directive reflected a misunderstanding tied to a “non-universal jailbreak” reported by an unnamed source.
• David Sacks, a science-and-technology advisor, said the administration issued the export control “reluctantly” and hoped Anthropic would remediate the safety issue quickly.
• Token markets reacted immediately, with several decentralized AI projects posting gains after Anthropic’s access was curtailed.

How the White House stepped in

Earlier coverage from The Wall Street Journal describes a chain of events involving both private-sector discovery and government escalation. The report says Amazon researchers identified a method to “jailbreak” Anthropic’s Fable 5 model—specifically, a way to coax it into returning information that could be repurposed for cyberattacks.

Following that discovery, The Wall Street Journal reported that Andy Jassy reached out to senior U.S. officials on Thursday. The outreach, combined with warnings from at least five other firms, prompted an urgent response inside the White House as officials assessed whether the issue warranted formal export controls.

Politico separately described the rapid internal process, including contact with Anthropic leadership. According to the Politico report referenced in the Wall Street Journal write-up, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei pushed back on the administration’s concerns and asked to avoid a voluntary pull of the model.

Anthropic’s response to the directive

The immediate outcome was a U.S. directive that forced Anthropic to suspend access to its new model. Earlier coverage from Cointelegraph noted that Anthropic “suspends access” under this U.S. directive, and the company later indicated that it is working to restore access for users.

In a Friday blog post, Anthropic said it believed the directive was driven by a misunderstanding about the threat posed by what it called a “non-universal jailbreak,” a term tied to information attributed to an unnamed report. In other words, Anthropic did not frame the jailbreak issue as universally exploitable, but rather as something the administration may have interpreted more broadly than the company believed was warranted.

Amazon, for its part, did not confirm whether it spoke directly with government officials about Anthropic’s models. A spokesperson said it is common for governments to seek counsel from major cloud providers when security risks emerge, and that when such discussions occur, Amazon does not share details.

Why officials framed it as a reluctant export control

David Sacks, co-chair of the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, characterized the administration’s actions in a post on Saturday. In the cited remarks, Sacks said the administration issued the export control “in reaction” and that it did so “reluctantly.” He also suggested the administration was surprised Anthropic had not agreed to cooperate on a “reasonable safety request,” which he tied to fixing the jailbreak issue.

Critically for readers watching how these decisions unfold, Sacks added that the administration’s hope is for Anthropic to remediate the safety problem in a way that could lead to lifting the export control and returning the model to general release. He indicated the administration wants the process to happen as soon as possible.

This matters because the difference between a temporary suspension and a prolonged export-control regime can strongly influence both enterprise deployment timelines and user expectations—especially when the impacted model is already attracting measurable usage. The article notes Claude is estimated to have around 18,900 monthly active users.

Ripple effects in decentralized AI token markets

Beyond the immediate controversy, the episode illustrated the government’s ability to rapidly shut off access to U.S.-based AI models. That speed appeared to spill into token markets tied to decentralized AI infrastructure and development.

Cointelegraph reported that the announcement period coincided with gains for several AI-focused tokens on Friday and Saturday. The native token of Bittensor, a decentralized AI protocol sometimes described as “the Bitcoin of AI” (per market commentary echoed in the coverage), rose 23.9% over the past 24 hours, according to CoinGecko’s coin page referenced in the article.

Other mentioned movers included Venice Token (VVV), which rose 16%, and Near Protocol (NEAR), which gained 6.2% as investors priced in the potential resilience—or at least perceived independence—of decentralized AI ecosystems relative to centralized model providers facing regulatory constraints.

These moves were not an endorsement of any single token’s fundamentals based on the Anthropic situation; rather, they reflected a common market narrative: if centralized AI access can be throttled quickly through government directives, decentralized alternatives may attract attention as a hedge or alternative channel for AI development and monetization.

What to watch next

The key uncertainty now is whether Anthropic can demonstrate effective remediation quickly enough to satisfy U.S. officials—potentially leading to lifting the export controls. For investors and builders, the follow-up timeline and the clarity of what “remediation” means in practice will likely be the most important indicators of how durable this precedent could be.

The Trump administration’s decision to cut foreign access to Anthropic’s most powerful AI models was reportedly triggered by calls from Amazon CEO Andy Jassy.

According to a report from The Wall Street Journal, Jassy contacted senior government officials on Thursday after Amazon researchers discovered a way to prompt Anthropic’s Fable 5 model into returning information that could be used for cyberattacks. 

The call, along with warnings from at least five other firms, led to a frantic shuffle within the White House to gauge the threat and contact Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, who reportedly pushed back on the administration’s concerns and requests to voluntarily pull the model. 

“In reaction, the Admin issued the export control. The Admin did this reluctantly,” said David Sacks, the co-chair of the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, on Saturday. “It’s been very surprised that Anthropic hasn’t wanted to cooperate with a reasonable safety request (ie fixing the jailbreak issue).”

Source: David Sacks

The episode sheds light on what led to the US directive that forced Anthropic to pull its new model from the public on Friday night. Anthropic Claude is estimated to have around 18,900 monthly active users. 

In a blog post on Friday, Anthropic said it believed the US directive was the result of a misunderstanding about the threat posed by a “non-universal jailbreak,” which came from an unnamed report. 

Amazon did not confirm if it spoke to government officials about Anthropic’s models. 

“As a leading cloud provider that serves a large number of private and public sector customers, it’s not uncommon for governments to seek ​our counsel on potential security risks,” a spokesperson said. “When they occur, we don’t share the details of these discussions.”

Anthropic said it is working to restore access for its users.

Related: Anthropic suspends access to Fable 5, Mythos 5, citing US directive

“The Admin’s hope now is that Anthropic remediates the safety issue,” Sacks said, which would see the export control lifted, and Fable goes back into general release. 

“The Admin wants all of this to happen as soon as possible.”

AI tokens surge after Anthropic crackdown

The episode has also demonstrated the US government’s ability to promptly switch off access to US-based AI models on command, leading to a rally in decentralized AI tokens on Friday and Saturday. 

The native token of Bittensor, a decentralized AI protocol that lets people build and monetize artificial intelligence models, which some refer to as “the Bitcoin of AI,” surged 23.9% over the past 24 hours.

Venice Token (VVV), the native utility and privacy coin powering Venice AI, a decentralized, uncensored AI platform founded by Erik Voorhees, rose 16%.

Near Protocol, a blockchain project building the infrastructure to support a decentralized AI agent economy, rose 6.2%.

Source: Erik Voorhees

Magazine: Bitcoin, the ‘canary in the coal mine,’ XRP transaction demand falls 91.5%: Market Moves