MoonPay has launched PayBox, a noncustodial payment vault that lets users prepare and execute crypto transactions or online purchases through ChatGPT and Claude.

MoonPay PayBox turns AI conversations into transactions

PayBox allows users to connect a payment vault to ChatGPT or Anthropic’s Claude and describe a transaction in plain language. The AI assistant can then research available options, prepare the transaction, and execute it under permissions set by the user.

Supported crypto actions include buying digital assets with fiat currency, swapping tokens, moving assets between blockchains, and depositing funds into decentralized finance protocols. PayBox can also complete commercial transactions such as booking flights, reserving restaurant tables and purchasing goods from online retailers.

The launch extends AI assistants beyond research and transaction preparation by giving them limited authority to act on a user’s behalf. However, that authority depends on the security settings attached to the PayBox account.

MoonPay said the product is live through the PayBox website. Users must connect it to a supported AI platform through a custom connector before issuing payment instructions.

Passkeys and spending rules limit AI access

PayBox offers two authorization models. Under the “Always Ask” setting, every transaction requires the user to approve the action with a passkey. The approval applies to only one transaction and expires after use, preventing the AI from applying it to a different payment.

The “Autonomous” model allows the connected assistant to operate within spending limits and other rules chosen by the user. This option removes the need to approve each eligible transaction separately, but it does not give the assistant unrestricted control over the vault.

Any change to the permission model or transaction rules requires another passkey authorization. Users can therefore define how much the assistant can spend and the types of actions it can perform before enabling autonomous execution.

PayBox supports both crypto wallets and payment cards. For wallet transactions, private keys are divided using multiparty computation and stored across secure hardware environments. MoonPay said neither it nor the connected AI assistant can independently reconstruct the complete key or authorize an asset transfer.

Card payments use Visa’s agentic commerce protocol, allowing the assistant to complete approved purchases without receiving or storing the underlying card number.

PayBox supports Solana and major EVM networks

MoonPay has added support for Solana and several Ethereum Virtual Machine-compatible networks. The initial list includes Ethereum, Hyperliquid, Tempo, Base, Robinhood Chain, Arbitrum and Polygon.

The vault also integrates with x402, an open payment standard designed for services that accept transactions initiated by AI agents. MoonPay said its first x402 integrations cover travel bookings, restaurant reservations and purchases from major online retailers.

The network coverage lets users carry out several steps through one conversation. An assistant could, for example, help a user acquire an asset, bridge it to another blockchain and deposit it into a supported DeFi protocol, provided every step falls within the account’s permissions.

The product relies on security technology developed by Sodot, a key-management company MoonPay acquired earlier in 2026. MoonPay said Sodot’s infrastructure secures more than $50 billion in assets across over 10 million wallets.

MoonPay expands from institutional trading into AI payments

PayBox follows MoonPay’s recent expansion into tokenized financial products. As crypto.news reported in June, Franklin Templeton added its BENJI tokenized money market fund to MoonPay Trade.

That integration allows institutional users to exchange USDC, USDT and other stablecoins for BENJI through MoonPay’s on-chain trading platform. It also gives BENJI holders access to stablecoin liquidity and supports uses such as treasury management, portfolio rebalancing, collateral and liquidity provision.

PayBox targets a different part of the market by connecting consumer and crypto payments directly with conversational AI. MoonPay describes the vault as noncustodial because users retain control of their assets and neither MoonPay nor the AI provider can move funds alone.

For US users, PayBox’s use of Visa’s agentic commerce framework could make AI-assisted card payments more practical, while passkey controls may help address concerns over unauthorized purchases. Access to individual crypto assets, DeFi protocols, and payment services may still depend on location and the rules applied by each provider.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer introduced legislation to create a new US government agency focused entirely on addressing corruption at the federal level, noting President Donald Trump’s gains from “various, and extremely lucrative, cryptocurrency ventures.”

In a Thursday notice, Schumer said that he had introduced a bill called the Anti-Corruption Bureau Creation Act, which, if passed, would have the authority to “investigate, enforce, and prevent executive branch corruption.” The text of the bill addressed Congress’ findings that Trump had disclosed earning more than $2 billion from investments in 2025, including $1.4 billion tied to crypto, and his family had more than $1 billion in a crypto fund tied to foreign governments.

In a Public Citizen forum describing the bill, Schumer described the anti-corruption agency as having “real teeth” with enforcement authority, and consisting of a bipartisan group of seven members to be confirmed by the Senate. The legislation also provided mechanisms for private citizens and state authorities to recover funds that Schumer said had been stolen from Americans “through corruption.“

“This new bureau is one where these institutions work in symbiosis, strengthening each other and eliminating barriers between them which often got in the way,” said Schumer. “It replaces a broken patchwork of watchdogs, none of which were built for this moment, with one, powerful anti-corruption agency, ready to act anywhere, anytime corruption strikes.”

Senator Chuck Schumer announcing the Anti-Corruption Bureau Creation Act on Thursday. Source: Public Citizen

Trump’s ties to the cryptocurrency industry have been a sticking point for many Democrats in Congress considering their support for a comprehensive market structure bill called the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act. Although the White House agreed to certain ethics provisions in the bill, many lawmakers say the measures do not go far enough to address the president’s potential conflicts of interest.

Related: Ethics remain sticking point as crypto market structure bill goes to markup

Notably, the proposed anti-corruption agency would place the US Federal Election Commission, Office of Government Ethics and Office of Special Counsel “under one roof“ within the new bureau. Cointelegraph reached out to the White House for comment on the proposed legislation but did not receive an immediate response.

Senators Andy Kim, Alex Padilla and Jeff Merkley cosponsored the bill with Schumer. The introduction of the bill also came the same week Senators Richard Blumenthal and Chris Van Hollen held a public forum to address Trump’s ties to the crypto industry.

The bill would require Republican support to pass in the US House of Representatives and Senate, where the party holds a slim majority. If it were to advance in both chambers before 2028, Trump could still veto the legislation and send it back to Congress, where it would need a two-thirds majority to override the president’s action.

Crypto bill is still under consideration in Senate

The US Senate has just over a week left before lawmakers break for a month-long state work period, leaving many scrambling to pass bills before the 2026 US midterms potentially complicate discussions on their return.

“The big question at this very minute is where the CLARITY Act stands,“ said former US Securities and Exchange Commission official John Reed Stark following his appearance at Blumenthal’s and Van Hollen’s Monday forum. “Of all the experts and political insiders I spoke with yesterday, not one could say for sure what happens this week with the CLARITY Act. There is enormous drama surrounding this legislation.“

As of Thursday, the Senate had not scheduled a vote on the bill, despite pushes from many Republican lawmakers and industry leaders. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said on Wednesday that the bill was at the “one-yard line,“ and Senator Cynthia Lummis, who has long advocated for the market structure legislation, has continued to push for a vote.

Magazine: Will the crypto lobby’s $189M campaign get CLARITY over the line?

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In a post on X, CEO Brian Armstrong pointed to the company’s expanding businesses beyond spot trading, including stablecoins, Base and prediction markets, noting that Coinbase reached a record 10.3% share of global crypto trading volume during the quarter.

CFO Alesia Haas struck a more measured tone, saying crypto market conditions were challenging as industry spot trading volumes fell more than 20% and the total crypto market capitalization declined by double digits. She said those conditions contributed to a 14% quarter-over-quarter decline in Coinbase’s total revenue.

Several Wall Street firms lowered estimates ahead of earnings and trimmed EBITDA forecasts as lower crypto prices weighed on institutional trading, blockchain rewards and retail activity.

Investors remained focused on Coinbase’s efforts to reduce its dependence on transaction fees.

Subscription and services revenue, which includes USDC interest income, staking, custody, Coinbase One memberships and institutional services, has become a key measure of whether the company can generate more stable revenue through crypto market cycles.

Analysts also watched for updates on newer businesses, including derivatives, prediction markets and Base, Coinbase’s Ethereum layer-2 network.

The company will host a call with investors at 5pm E.T.

Crypto exchange Coinbase reported mixed second-quarter results on Thursday, missing Wall Street expectations on profitability as weaker trading activity weighed on results despite the company capturing a record share of the crypto market.

In the second quarter, Coinbase generated roughly $1.2 billion in net revenue, broadly in line with expectations but down 19% from a year earlier. The company reported a GAAP net loss of $359 million, significantly wider than analysts’ expectations for a roughly $122 million loss. Transaction revenue, subscription and services revenue, and adjusted EBITDA also fell short of consensus estimates.

Despite the losses, the exchange posted an all-time-high 10.3% share of global crypto trading volume, up from 9.1% in the first quarter, even as industry-wide trading activity weakened.

Transaction revenue totaled $599 million, below analyst expectations of $636 million, while subscription and services revenue came in at $555 million, missing the $590 million consensus estimate.

Coinbase attributed the decline in transaction revenue to weaker consumer and institutional trading activity amid a 25% quarter-over-quarter drop in total crypto spot trading volume, lower market volatility and weaker crypto prices.

The results come as Coinbase continues to position itself as an “Everything Exchange,” broadening its business beyond spot cryptocurrency trading into derivatives, prediction markets, tokenized assets and payments. 

Coinbase shares fell more than 5% in after-hours trading.

Magazine: CLARITY hopes fade, BitMEX shuts as lawsuit looms: Hodler’s Digest, July 26

This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.

Coinbase reported mixed results for the second quarter, showing profitability pressure as overall crypto trading activity softened—despite the exchange winning a record slice of global market volume. The company’s performance underscored a key tension for large exchanges this year: when user activity and volatility decline, even strong market share gains may not be enough to offset revenue headwinds.

For the quarter, Coinbase generated about $1.2 billion in net revenue, broadly in line with expectations but down 19% from the prior year. The exchange posted a GAAP net loss of $359 million, widening significantly versus analysts’ expectations for a loss around $122 million.

Key takeaways

• Coinbase’s net revenue for Q2 was roughly $1.2 billion, down 19% year over year, as trading-related revenue weakened.
• The company reported a GAAP net loss of $359 million, materially worse than expected.
• Transaction revenue fell short of consensus, while subscription and services revenue also missed estimates.
• Despite weaker industry activity, Coinbase reached a record 10.3% share of global crypto spot trading volume, up from 9.1% in Q1.

Revenue softness and a wider-than-expected loss

Coinbase’s top-line picture was restrained. Transaction revenue totaled $599 million, below analyst expectations of $636 million. Subscription and services revenue came in at $555 million, missing the $590 million consensus estimate.

The gap between performance and expectations showed up most clearly in the bottom line. Coinbase’s GAAP net loss of $359 million was substantially larger than forecasts for a roughly $122 million loss, reflecting the squeeze across revenue categories tied to market participation and trading conditions.

Why trading revenue declined

The exchange pointed to weaker engagement across both consumer and institutional trading. According to Coinbase, transaction revenue fell as total crypto spot trading volume dropped 25% quarter over quarter, with lower market volatility and weaker crypto prices contributing to the decline.

That explanation matters for investors because it highlights what likely drove the quarter: not a loss of competitive position, but a reduction in the underlying trading “fuel” that generates fee income. Even when an exchange captures a larger share of a smaller market, the absolute level of activity can still weigh on results.

Market share at a record level, even as volumes weakened

While revenue suffered, Coinbase’s routing and distribution strength appeared resilient. The company reported an all-time high 10.3% share of global crypto trading volume, up from 9.1% in the first quarter.

This is an important counterpoint to the earnings misses. In prior periods, exchange earnings have often been highly sensitive to both share and total market activity. Here, Coinbase demonstrated share gains even as industry-wide trading activity softened, suggesting competitive momentum. The open question for traders and analysts is whether market share growth can continue translating into better financial outcomes when price movement and volatility are weak.

Strategic push beyond spot trading

Coinbase also framed the results within its broader push to expand beyond spot trading. The company continues to position itself as an “Everything Exchange,” extending into areas including derivatives, prediction markets, tokenized assets, and payments.

That diversification angle is particularly relevant in quarters like this one, where spot activity declines can pressure transaction fees. Investors will likely watch whether non-spot products can help stabilize revenue during periods when spot volumes and volatility fall, or whether the business remains too dependent on traditional trading patterns.

Coinbase shares fell more than 5% in after-hours trading after closing up 2.2% during regular trading.

Going forward, readers should focus on whether Coinbase’s record market-share gains persist and, more importantly, whether its expansion into derivatives and other digital-asset services can deliver stronger revenue resilience when spot trading volume and volatility remain under pressure.

The Senate released 616 pages merging two committee drafts into one bill. Here is what the combined text actually does, section by section.

What the merge produced

The merged text is not a revision of either committee draft. It is a new document that stitches the Senate Banking Committee’s market-structure framework, passed 15-9 on May 14, to the Senate Agriculture Committee’s commodity-market provisions, then layers on titles that neither committee produced alone: a government ethics title, a law enforcement tools title, and 25 sections addressing sanctions and anti-money-laundering gaps.

The result is 616 pages across roughly a dozen titles. Senator Cynthia Lummis released the text alongside a section-by-section summary. The bill number remains H.R. 3633, the same vehicle that passed the House 294-134 in July 2025.

For readers who want the full statutory architecture mapped section by section, we published that guide when the House text shipped. What follows here covers only what the Senate merge added, changed, or settled.

The three-bucket classification

The core mechanism of the CLARITY Act is a statutory taxonomy that sorts every digital asset into one of three categories, each with a defined regulator.

Digital commodities are tokens whose underlying blockchain has reached functional maturity or sufficient decentralization. Once classified, these assets fall under CFTC jurisdiction. The CFTC gains exclusive authority over their spot markets, a power it currently lacks under the Commodity Exchange Act, which limits its spot-market role to anti-fraud and anti-manipulation enforcement. Centralized exchanges, brokers, and dealers trading digital commodities must register with the CFTC and comply with custody, trading, reporting, and consumer-protection standards.

Investment contract assets are tokens sold as part of an investment contract that have not yet graduated to commodity status. These remain under SEC jurisdiction and are subject to disclosure, registration, and investor-protection requirements consistent with existing securities law.

Permitted payment stablecoins are carved out entirely and governed by the GENIUS Act, which Congress passed in July 2025. The CLARITY Act does not duplicate that framework; it defers to it.

The taxonomy matters because it replaces the enforcement-by-litigation approach of the Gensler era with a statutory line. A token’s classification is no longer a question that gets answered in a federal courtroom years after launch. It is a question that gets answered by the text of the statute, the maturity certification process, or the grandfather clause.

The merged text also introduces a provisional registration regime for digital commodity exchanges and brokers. Firms can register with the CFTC and continue operating while final rules are written, avoiding the years-long limbo that characterized the previous regulatory environment. This is a meaningful change from the pre-CLARITY status quo, where an exchange could not know whether its tokens were securities or commodities until a court told it, often through an enforcement action. Under provisional registration, the exchange registers under a defined framework, lists tokens that have been certified or are in the certification pipeline, and operates under CFTC oversight from day one.

The maturity certification path

The bill creates a defined process for a token to move from securities treatment to commodity treatment. An issuer can notify the SEC that its digital asset is, or will become within four years, “functionally mature” or “sufficiently decentralized.” The SEC then evaluates the claim against statutory criteria: the network no longer depends on a centralized group to function, the token has real utility within its ecosystem, and ongoing management by the original development team is no longer the primary driver of the asset’s value.

Once certified, the asset is no longer classified as a security. The issuer’s filing obligations lighten, and the CFTC assumes oversight. Digital commodity exchanges may list only tokens whose blockchains have been certified as mature or whose issuers comply with ongoing reporting while the certification is pending.

This is the on-ramp that the industry has described as the bill’s central innovation. It is also the provision most dependent on rulemaking that has not begun. As our analysis of what Monday morning actually looks like if CLARITY passes details, the certification process exists in statute but cannot operate until the SEC writes the rules, and the base rate for timely agency rulemaking in this space is poor.

The ETP grandfather clause

Not every token needs to walk the certification path. Section 10101 of the merged text permanently classifies any token that was the principal asset of a qualifying exchange-traded product listed on a national securities exchange before January 1, 2026, as a non-security. The classification operates by force of statute the day the bill takes effect. It cannot be reversed through SEC rulemaking.

The practical effect is immediate and large. Bitcoin, Ether, XRP, SOL, and DOGE all anchored qualifying ETPs before the cutoff. They are grandfathered as digital commodities without any issuer action, any certification filing, or any waiting period. For these five assets, the classification war ends on signature day.

The grandfather clause is permanent. It does not sunset. It does not require renewal. And because it operates by statute rather than by agency interpretation, it survives changes in SEC leadership and rulemaking priorities. This is the single provision in the bill that delivers its effects without depending on a federal agency to do anything.

Regulation Crypto: the fundraising exemption

The merged text carries forward the Regulation Crypto framework from the House version. This is a bespoke exemption from full SEC registration for ancillary assets, tokens sold in connection with an investment contract that have not yet reached maturity.

An originator can raise the greater of $50 million per calendar year for four years, or 10 percent of the total dollar value of outstanding ancillary assets, subject to a $200 million aggregate cap. The exemption comes with tailored disclosure requirements rather than full securities registration. It is designed to let early-stage projects fund development without the cost and complexity of a registered offering while still providing investors with material information.

The key constraint is the cap structure. A project that raises $50 million a year exhausts its four-year allowance at $200 million. A project whose outstanding ancillary assets are worth $3 billion can raise $300 million per year but still cannot exceed the $200 million aggregate limit. The math channels early-stage capital into projects that are building, not projects that are already large enough to register.

The DeFi developer shield

Section 604 of the merged text incorporates the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act (BRCA), unchanged from the House version. The BRCA codifies that non-custodial software developers are not money transmitters under federal law and carry no Bank Secrecy Act obligations. It draws a bright line between custodial and non-custodial activities, making it clear which side of that line coders and validators stand on.

A separate DeFi exclusion exempts activities like validating transactions and publishing open-source code from SEC registration requirements. Running nodes, validating transactions, and maintaining protocol software are carved out from the bill’s compliance requirements entirely. Anti-fraud and anti-manipulation enforcement still applies; the shield covers registration, not conduct.

The DeFi Education Fund, reviewing the merged text, confirmed that the BRCA is unchanged, developer protections under the Exchange Act (Section 10601) and the Commodity Exchange Act (Section 20209) are intact, and the self-custody provision (Section 10605, the Keep Your Coins Act) is preserved. Protections under the Exchange Act reflect a compromise, with some protections for DeFi trading protocols, messaging systems, and self-custody hardware and software subject to future rulemaking. Protections under the CEA remain identical to the House-passed version.

This is the provision that the Fraternal Order of Police initially opposed and then reversed its position on. After reviewing the clarifying language in the merged text, the organization confirmed on July 24 that it is satisfied the provision does not limit law enforcement’s ability to address unlawful conduct involving digital assets.

The ethics provision

The merged text adds an entirely new government ethics title, developed in negotiations with the White House. Section 13152 prohibits covered federal officials and their spouses from issuing or sponsoring a digital asset in exchange for consideration during public service. “Covered federal officials” includes the president, vice president, members of Congress, and senior executive branch appointees.

The design choices are deliberate. The ban covers issuing new assets, not holding or profiting from existing ones. A safe harbor protects officials who place earlier crypto interests in qualified blind trusts or divest them. Penalties reach $250,000 per day of violation. And enforcement belongs solely to the Attorney General of the United States, with state attorneys general and private plaintiffs expressly barred from bringing actions.

The provision sunsets on January 20, 2029, the next presidential inauguration day.

These design choices are why the ethics provision is the center of the bill’s political fight. Seven Senate Democrats who had been negotiating the bill, including Senators Booker, Murphy, Van Hollen, and Merkley, issued a joint statement rejecting the released version the same day. Their objections center on two points: DOJ-only enforcement places the mechanism under a department whose nominee is the president’s former personal lawyer, and the 2029 sunset means the restriction expires with the current administration rather than enduring as a permanent standard.

The two Democrats whose committee votes carried the bill through the Banking Committee, Senators Alsobrooks and Gallego, also oppose the released version, for the same reasons.

Law enforcement and illicit finance

The merged text is substantially heavier on law enforcement provisions than either committee draft. Title II, Protecting Against Illicit Finance, and Title III, Responsible Innovation in Decentralized Finance, extend Bank Secrecy Act obligations to digital asset intermediaries and create rulemakings that give regulators new tools to address illicit finance through the existing AML framework.

Title IX, Law Enforcement Tools, is entirely new. It contains provisions developed in response to concerns from federal law enforcement that the original bill did not give prosecutors adequate authority. At first assessment, the title provides law enforcement with operational tools and funding without imposing registration requirements on non-custodial developers, threading a needle that earlier drafts left unresolved.

In total, the merged text contains 25 sections addressing sanctions, anti-money-laundering, and law enforcement, a significant expansion from the House version. This expansion reflects a political reality: multiple Senate votes, including some within the Democratic caucus, were conditioned on the bill doing more to address the use of digital assets in illicit finance, ransomware, and sanctions evasion.

Federal preemption

The merged text preempts state laws regulating the offer or sale of digital assets for federally registered firms, except for general antifraud statutes. This creates a uniform regulatory environment at the federal level, replacing the current patchwork of state-by-state requirements.

The preemption is significant for compliance costs. Under the current regime, a digital asset firm operating in all 50 states may need to comply with dozens of different regulatory frameworks. Under the CLARITY Act, federal registration replaces state-level licensing for activities covered by the bill. States retain their antifraud authority, and the preemption does not affect state tax law or criminal statutes.

For a broader view of where this fits within the full map of US crypto regulation in 2026, the preemption provision is the mechanism that converts the federal framework from a layer on top of existing state rules into a replacement for them, at least for firms that register.

What is not in the merged text

The merged text does not address several areas that remain open:

Stablecoin yield. Banking trade associations have publicly stated that the updated text puts at risk the local lending that drives economic activity, reflecting an ongoing dispute over whether rewards paid in connection with holding payment stablecoins constitute yield. The GENIUS Act governs stablecoins, but the interaction between the two statutes on this point is unresolved.

Specific rulemaking deadlines with enforcement teeth. The bill instructs the SEC and CFTC to write rules but does not impose the kind of penalties for missed deadlines that would force agency action. The GENIUS Act’s agencies missed their own statutory rulemaking deadline this month, one year after passage, and the CLARITY Act hands a larger workload to a CFTC operating with a single confirmed commissioner.

NFT classification. The taxonomy addresses fungible digital assets but does not create a specific category or exemption for non-fungible tokens. Their treatment will depend on how the SEC and CFTC apply the existing categories through rulemaking and enforcement.

Custody standards for qualified custodians. The merged text prohibits federal regulators from requiring financial institutions to carry customer digital assets as liabilities on their own balance sheets or hold additional capital against custodied assets, except as necessary to address operational risk. But it does not define affirmative custody standards for qualified custodians beyond this prohibition. The details of how banks, trust companies, and registered custodians must segregate, insure, and report on digital asset holdings will be determined through rulemaking.

Cross-border coordination. The bill is a domestic statute. It does not address how the CFTC and SEC will coordinate with foreign regulators on cross-listed digital assets, how conflicts between the CLARITY Act’s classification framework and foreign regulatory regimes will be resolved, or how enforcement jurisdiction will be allocated when a token classified as a commodity in the United States is treated as a security abroad.

The vote math and the shelving

The bill needs 60 votes to clear the Senate under cloture rules. Republicans hold 53 seats. Every Republican vote is assumed, which means seven Democrats must cross over. Two Democrats, Senators Gallego and Alsobrooks, voted for the bill in committee but have since opposed the merged text over the ethics provision. Their opposition does not reduce the required crossover count, because their committee votes were not floor commitments, but it signals the difficulty of the remaining math.

As our coverage of the 60-vote gap the bill faces on the Senate floor detailed, the cloture sequence itself consumes days: filing, an intervening day, the vote, then up to 30 hours of post-cloture debate. A contested bill typically needs the sequence twice, once on the motion to proceed and once on the bill itself. The calendar arithmetic proved as binding as the vote arithmetic.

No cloture motion was filed. Senate Majority Leader Thune acknowledged on July 23 that the chamber lacked time to complete debate, amendments, and a cloture vote before the August 8 recess. The floor went to a nominations package and a Russia sanctions bill instead. The CLARITY Act has sat on the Senate Legislative Calendar as Calendar No. 423 since June 1, without a scheduled vote.

The shelving does not kill the bill. The 119th Congress runs until January 2027, and the merged text remains on the calendar. But the political window narrows sharply after recess as midterm positioning absorbs Senate floor time. A September session carries less momentum, fewer available floor days, and the same unresolved ethics deadlock. Polymarket odds on the bill becoming law in 2026 are worth reading as an arc instead of a number: a February peak above 80 percent, a record low near 24 percent in mid-July, a rebound to 43 percent on July 21 after reports that the White House had agreed to the ethics provision, and roughly 30 percent as of July 29.

What to watch

September floor time. With no cloture motion filed before the August 8 recess, the next opportunity is the September session. Whether Thune allocates floor time to the CLARITY Act or prioritizes the reconciliation package will determine whether the bill gets a vote in 2026.

Democratic crossover count. Seven crossover votes beyond Gallego and Alsobrooks are needed for 60. The ethics provision remains the binding constraint on every undecided Democrat, and the recess has not produced any new commitments.

Ethics provision amendments. Floor amendments extending the sunset past 2029 or adding state AG enforcement authority would change the vote math significantly.

CFTC confirmation. The CFTC is operating with a single confirmed commissioner. Until additional commissioners are confirmed, the agency’s capacity to write the rules the bill requires is structurally limited.

SEC rulemaking timeline. The maturity certification process, the Regulation Crypto disclosure requirements, and portions of the DeFi protections all depend on SEC rulemaking that has not started.

Frequently asked questions

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or investment advice. Regulatory outcomes are uncertain, and the legislative text discussed may change through floor amendments or conference negotiation. Readers should consult qualified professionals before making decisions based on pending legislation. Information is accurate as of July 30, 2026.