The shares of Vishal Mega Mart will remain in focus on Wednesday after nearly 92.3 crore shares worth Rs 10,813 crore become eligible for trade as the IPO lock-in period expires today, according to Nuvama Institutional Equities.

However, it is important to note that the lock-in expiry does not imply that all these shares will be offloaded in the market immediately. It simply means that these shares can now be traded by the shareholders. At the previous closing price of Rs 117.15 apiece on BSE, the said number of shares that will free up for trade today is worth nearly Rs 10,812.95 crore.

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Vishal Mega Mart share price

Vishal Mega Mart shares made a strong market debut, listing with a 41% premium over the IPO price at Rs 110 on BSE in December 2024. Although the offer was entirely an OFS, Vishal Mega Mart’s maiden public issue received healthy demand from all sets of investors, especially from the QIB category, which bid more than 85 times its allotted portion.

The stock then fell over 10% to a record low of Rs 98.7 apiece in February 2025, before soaring 60% to a 52-week high of Rs 157.75 apiece in August 2025. The stock has since fallen nearly 26% from that level, closing at Rs 117.15 apiece on the BSE on Tuesday.

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Vishal Mega Mart Q4 Results

Vishal Mega Mart in May reported a consolidated net profit of Rs 167.92 crore for the fourth quarter of the financial year 2026, marking a nearly 46% year-on-year (YoY) jump from the Rs 115 crore net profit reported in the year-ago period. The firm’s revenue from operations meanwhile rose over 22% YoY to Rs 3,114 crore during the quarter under review.

“We look ahead at FY27 with excitement. We wish to be a strong contributor to India’s growing consumption story. India’s emerging retail landscape offers exciting and evolving opportunities across offline and digital commerce. With our extensive network and strong fundamentals, we are well-positioned to participate in these,” said Gunender Kapur, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Vishal Mega Mart.
Also read: Vedanta to be removed from MSCI Global Standard Indexes from June 22

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

The dollar eased on Wednesday ahead of the Federal Reserve‘s first policy decision under Chair Kevin Warsh, with lingering optimism over an interim U.S.-Iran peace deal underpinning risk appetite and dampening demand for the U.S. currency.

The yen found little respite against a weaker greenback and teetered further into intervention territory, after a well-telegraphed Bank of Japan (BOJ) rate hike delivered few surprises.

Moves in currencies were largely subdued in the early Asian session, with investors hesitant to take ‌on large positions ahead ⁠of ⁠the Fed’s rate outcome later in the day.

The euro steadied at $1.1611 while sterling was little changed at $1.3430.

The New Zealand dollar edged slightly higher to $0.5833.

The Fed is widely expected to stand pat on rates at Warsh’s debut meeting. The statement, economic projections and news conference, however, will be scrutinised for any signals of the Fed dropping its easing bias as officials grow more hawkish on inflation risks.
“The Fed is…likely to signal a neutral bias for monetary policy going forward,” said Erik Weisman, chief economist and portfolio manager at MFS Investment Management. “(Warsh) will ⁠face a ‌barrage of questions about how he expects to steer the Fed in the direction he has indicated over the years. It is early days yet. The new Fed Chair may still ⁠be gauging the mood of the committee that he has to carry to deliver successful policy. He may not want to make any statements without first forging consensus within the Fed.”

Against a basket of currencies, the dollar eased slightly to 99.53, unwinding some of its safe-haven gains made as details emerged of the U.S. and Iran’s interim agreement to end the war in the Middle East.

YEN ON TENTERHOOKS

The yen last stood at 160.43 per dollar, leaving traders on alert for any potential intervention from Japanese authorities to shore up the ailing currency.

The BOJ on Tuesday raised interest ‌rates to a 31-year high in a landmark step in its policy normalisation, signalling readiness to tighten further as it focuses on taming price pressures from the Iran-war-induced energy shock.

Policymakers offered few clues on the timing of ⁠the next rate hike, however.

“While the press conference…contained some optimistic signals regarding the outlook for the Japanese economy, it failed to move the needle much regarding market expectations around the timing of the next BOJ policy move,” said Jane Foley, senior FX strategist at Rabobank.

“Despite the significance of the BOJ’s decision to take its policy rate back to 1% today, the meeting was still overshadowed by that of the Fed.”

Elsewhere, the Australian dollar was flat at $0.7066.

The Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate steady at 4.35% on Tuesday, saying the economy was slowing in the face of tighter financial conditions but warning it might yet raise rates again if needed to control inflation.

Gold edged higher on Wednesday, extending gains for a fifth straight session, as optimism around the U.S.-Iran peace deal eased concerns over interest rate hikes, while investors awaited further details on the deal and the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting.

FUNDAMENTALS

Spot gold was up 0.4% at $4,348.93 per ounce, as of 0107 GMT. ‌U.S. gold futures ⁠for ⁠August delivery rose 0.3% to $4,368.40.

Details began to emerge of the U.S. and Iran’s interim agreement to end the war in the Middle East, with U.S. President Donald Trump saying it will rule out a nuclear weapon for Tehran and a U.S. official saying it allows Iran to sell oil upon signing.

The memorandum of understanding signed this ⁠week, though ‌yet to be made public, extends a tenuous ceasefire announced in April by another 60 days to allow the ⁠warring countries to negotiate a permanent truce.

Investors now await the Federal Reserve policy decision and remarks, the first under Chair Kevin Warsh, later in the day, with rates widely expected to remain unchanged.

A majority of Fed policymakers now feel they will need to keep U.S. short-term borrowing costs on hold all year, projections due out on Wednesday are expected to ‌show, with a small number seen penciling in a rate hike to stop a spike in inflation from getting entrenched in the economy.

A record ⁠45% of the reserve managers surveyed by the World Gold Council expect to increase their own institutions’ gold holdings over the next 12 months, the international organization said on Tuesday.
Spot silver rose 0.4% to $70.47 per ounce, platinum gained 0.9% to $1,819.45, and palladium was up 0.6% to $1,360.32.

DATA/EVENTS (GMT)

0600 UK Core CPI YY May 0600 UK CPI YY May

0600 UK CPI Services MM, YY May

0900 EU HCIP Final MM, YY May

1230 US Retail Sales MM May

The Nasdaq Composite rose 78.62 points, or 0.29%, to close at 26,762.56 on Monday, extending modest gains as technology shares maintained strength amid reduced geopolitical uncertainty following the US-Iran ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

The session reflected a consolidation phase after last week’s sharp relief rally, with investors balancing optimism over stabilized energy markets against caution on corporate earnings and Federal Reserve policy signals. While the advance was relatively subdued compared to recent double-digit percentage moves in major indices, it underscored continued confidence in the technology sector’s long-term growth prospects.

Technology giants including Apple, Microsoft and NVIDIA contributed positively to the index, supported by expectations of steady demand for AI infrastructure and digital services. The peace agreement has eased concerns over potential energy price spikes that could pressure corporate margins, particularly for companies with significant global operations and data center footprints.

Tech Sector Resilience Drives Gains

The Nasdaq’s performance was led by semiconductor and software stocks, which benefited from lowered volatility expectations and stable commodity prices. Lower oil costs following the Iran deal are seen as supportive for technology firms, reducing operational expenses related to energy-intensive data centers and manufacturing.

NVIDIA, a major Nasdaq component, continued its strong run as investor enthusiasm for artificial intelligence remained intact. The company’s position at the forefront of AI chip technology has made it a bellwether for the broader sector, with its performance often influencing sentiment across the index.

Other notable movers included companies in cloud computing and digital advertising, which stand to gain from improved global economic stability. The session’s modest gain followed stronger performances in previous days, suggesting investors are taking a measured approach as they await further details on the Iran agreement’s implementation.

Broader Market Context

The Nasdaq’s advance aligned with gains in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500, though the tech-heavy index showed relatively muted movement compared to the blue-chip benchmark. The Russell 2000 small-cap index also posted a small gain, indicating that the positive sentiment extended beyond large-cap technology names.

The US-Iran ceasefire, which includes the lifting of the naval blockade and restoration of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, has been a primary driver of recent market optimism. President Donald Trump’s announcement of the deal triggered a broad relief rally last week, with technology stocks participating as lower energy costs were seen as supportive for corporate profitability.

Financial markets have reacted positively to the prospect of normalized trade flows, with reduced risk premiums contributing to lower volatility across asset classes. The VIX, Wall Street’s fear gauge, has declined significantly in recent sessions, creating a more favorable environment for growth-oriented technology investments.

Economic Indicators and Policy Outlook

The session unfolded against a backdrop of a resilient US economy showing steady growth despite earlier concerns over inflation. Corporate earnings have largely met or exceeded expectations, with particular strength in technology and financial services. The Federal Reserve’s measured approach to policy has provided a supportive backdrop for equities.

Analysts highlighted the deal’s potential to stabilize energy prices, which could help moderate inflationary pressures and support consumer spending. This environment generally favors technology companies that rely on corporate and consumer investment in innovation and digital transformation.

The Federal Reserve continues to monitor incoming data closely, with markets pricing limited near-term rate adjustments. This predictability has been welcomed by technology investors seeking clarity amid shifting global conditions.

Sector Rotation and Investment Flows

Monday’s trading showed signs of rotation within the technology sector, with some investors shifting toward names with strong AI exposure while trimming positions in more speculative growth stocks. The overall positive tone reflected confidence in the sector’s fundamentals despite elevated valuations.

Institutional flows into technology-focused funds remained supportive, with exchange-traded funds tracking the Nasdaq seeing steady inflows. Retail participation was also notable, with trading volumes elevated as individual investors reacted to the positive geopolitical news.

The Nasdaq’s price-to-earnings ratio remains above historical averages, reflecting optimism about future growth but also raising questions about near-term valuation risks. Investors are closely watching quarterly results for signs of sustained demand for AI-related products and services.

Global Market Reactions

European and Asian markets followed Wall Street higher in subsequent trading, with gains in technology and export-oriented shares. The euro and other currencies strengthened modestly against the dollar as risk sentiment improved.

The synchronized global rally underscores the interconnected nature of financial markets and the significant influence of Middle East developments on investor sentiment worldwide. Technology companies with global operations stand to benefit from reduced shipping risks and more predictable energy costs.

Analyst Perspectives

Market strategists described the move as consistent with historical patterns following major risk reductions. Technology stocks often thrive when economic uncertainty declines and corporate spending on innovation remains robust. The current environment appears conducive to further gains if the ceasefire holds and global growth stabilizes.

Some analysts cautioned that implementation details of the Iran agreement could introduce renewed uncertainty. However, the immediate market reaction demonstrated investors’ willingness to price in a more benign outlook for energy markets and global trade.

The Nasdaq’s performance also highlights the sector’s sensitivity to global events. While domestic fundamentals remain strong, international developments continue to play a significant role in shaping investor sentiment toward technology stocks.

Investment Considerations

For individual investors, the session reinforces the importance of maintaining diversified portfolios capable of capturing opportunities across market conditions. Those with exposure to technology and growth stocks likely benefited from Monday’s advance, while balanced allocations helped mitigate volatility.

Financial advisers recommend focusing on companies with strong competitive advantages, robust balance sheets and exposure to long-term secular trends such as artificial intelligence and digital transformation. While geopolitical developments can drive short-term moves, underlying innovation cycles remain the primary driver over time.

The Nasdaq’s performance also highlights the interconnected nature of global events and US equities. Investors are encouraged to stay informed about international developments while maintaining a long-term perspective on technology opportunities.

Historical Perspective

Monday’s gain adds to the Nasdaq’s strong performance in 2026, as the index continues to benefit from technological innovation and corporate adaptability. The current environment contrasts with periods of heightened geopolitical tension earlier in the year, demonstrating markets’ resilience when major risks ease.

Technology-led rallies have been a defining feature of recent market cycles, driven by artificial intelligence, cloud computing and digital transformation trends. The Nasdaq’s ability to advance steadily underscores the sector’s enduring appeal to growth-oriented investors.

Looking Ahead

Attention now turns to upcoming economic data releases, corporate earnings reports and any further details on the Iran agreement implementation. The Federal Reserve’s communications and policy path will also be closely watched for signals on interest rates.

As markets digest the latest geopolitical breakthrough, the focus remains on whether the positive momentum can be sustained. Strong corporate fundamentals, easing external risks and continued technological progress provide a constructive backdrop, though periodic volatility is likely given the fluid nature of international relations.

The Nasdaq’s modest gain on Monday represents continued confidence in the technology sector’s growth potential. Investors will continue monitoring developments in the Middle East and their implications for energy prices, inflation and broader market sentiment in the weeks ahead.

The session serves as a reminder of markets’ sensitivity to headline news while also showcasing their capacity for steady progress when major uncertainties diminish. For now, the Nasdaq’s performance underscores a cautiously optimistic outlook as 2026 progresses.

A recent Windows 11 update is causing significant startup problems for some users, including boot failures, BitLocker recovery screens and blue screen errors, primarily affecting business devices from manufacturers like HP and Dell.

The update, identified as KB5094126 and released on June 9, 2026, has been linked to issues with Secure Boot and the EFI system partition on systems with limited space. Microsoft has not yet issued an official statement addressing the reports, but affected users are documenting the problems across forums, Reddit threads and feedback channels.

The patch was intended to address approximately 200 security vulnerabilities, including critical flaws and zero-day exploits, while introducing performance enhancements such as a new low-latency profile. Despite these benefits, the update has created operational disruptions for a subset of users, particularly those running enterprise configurations.

Scope of the Issues

Reports indicate that some PCs fail to boot normally after installation, instead entering BitLocker recovery mode that requires the recovery key or displaying blue screen errors. HP EliteBook, ProBook and ZBook models, along with certain Dell Precision workstations, appear especially vulnerable. In some cases, devices become stuck in boot loops, complicating recovery efforts.

The root cause appears tied to updates to Secure Boot certificates and new boot components. Systems with small EFI partitions — sometimes as little as 100 MB — may lack sufficient free space for these changes. Windows event logs have shown TPM-WMI errors related to insufficient EFI partition space. HP systems may be more susceptible because firmware and recovery data often occupy additional space in the EFI partition.

One affected user described the experience as devices becoming unresponsive after the update, requiring manual intervention through BIOS settings. Microsoft has not confirmed the exact number of impacted systems, but community reports suggest the issue is concentrated among business PCs with specific hardware configurations.

Workarounds and Recovery Steps

Users experiencing these problems have shared potential workarounds. One common approach involves accessing the BIOS or UEFI settings — often by pressing Esc during startup on HP devices — disabling Secure Boot, allowing the update to complete, and then re-enabling Secure Boot. Having the BitLocker recovery key readily available is essential for this process.

Updating the BIOS or UEFI to the latest version is also recommended, as outdated firmware may exacerbate compatibility issues. For systems already stuck, recovery options through Windows installation media or safe mode may be necessary, though these steps carry risks for non-technical users.

Enterprise IT teams have reported increased support tickets as organizations work to restore affected devices. The issues highlight the challenges of deploying large updates across diverse hardware environments, particularly in business settings with strict security configurations.

Additional Disruptions Reported

Beyond boot problems, the update has caused secondary issues for some users. OneDrive integration with File Explorer has become unresponsive in certain cases, with the cloud storage icon failing to react when clicked. Files remain accessible through direct folder navigation, but the seamless integration many users rely on is disrupted.

Isolated reports mention similar problems with Dropbox and iCloud Drive, though these appear less widespread. Microsoft Word’s integration with third-party software in specialized enterprise environments, such as medical and accounting applications, has also been affected. While Word itself functions, automated workflows using the program in the background may fail.

Changes to the desktop.ini file have led to lost custom folder views or icons when files are flagged as untrusted. These ancillary problems add to user frustration even on systems that successfully boot after the update.

Microsoft’s Security Focus and Update Context

KB5094126 was classified as an important update due to the extensive security patches it delivers. Microsoft regularly releases cumulative updates to address vulnerabilities and improve system stability, but the scale of changes in this patch appears to have introduced compatibility challenges on specific hardware setups.

The company’s emphasis on security is evident in the volume of fixes, but the lack of immediate public acknowledgment of the boot and BitLocker issues has left users seeking information from community sources. Microsoft typically monitors feedback channels closely and releases follow-up patches when widespread problems emerge.

Users are advised to check the Windows Update settings and Feedback Hub for any emerging fixes. In the meantime, backing up important data and documenting system configurations can help during troubleshooting.

Broader Implications for Windows Users

The problems highlight ongoing challenges in maintaining compatibility across the diverse Windows ecosystem. Business devices with specialized configurations, legacy hardware or tight security policies are often the first to encounter issues with major updates.

Enterprise environments may need to implement staged rollout strategies or additional testing before applying future patches. Individual users facing boot issues should prioritize data recovery and consider professional assistance if standard troubleshooting fails.

The incident also underscores the importance of maintaining current BIOS/UEFI firmware and ensuring adequate EFI partition space on systems expected to receive frequent updates. As Windows 11 continues to evolve with new security and performance features, hardware requirements and preparation steps become increasingly critical.

Recommendations for Affected Users

Microsoft recommends standard troubleshooting steps, including restarting devices, running system file checks and using recovery environments when necessary. For BitLocker-affected systems, having recovery keys stored securely in advance is essential.

IT administrators in organizations should monitor Microsoft’s service health dashboard and apply updates selectively if possible. Testing updates in non-production environments can help identify potential conflicts before widespread deployment.

Users experiencing persistent issues are encouraged to report details through the Feedback Hub or official support channels. Providing system specifications, error codes and update history can help Microsoft diagnose and address the problems more effectively.

Microsoft’s Track Record and Future Outlook

Microsoft has a history of quickly addressing widespread update issues with follow-up patches. Previous incidents involving boot problems or BitLocker triggers have typically been resolved within days or weeks through targeted fixes.

The current situation may prompt Microsoft to issue guidance or a supplemental update specifically targeting the EFI partition and Secure Boot changes. As Windows 11 matures, the company continues refining its update processes to minimize disruptions while delivering necessary security improvements.

For now, affected users are navigating a period of uncertainty as they await official acknowledgment and resolution. The broader Windows community remains active in sharing workarounds and experiences, highlighting the collaborative nature of troubleshooting complex software issues.

The June 2026 update serves as a reminder of the delicate balance between rapid security enhancements and system stability. As Microsoft pushes forward with Windows 11 improvements, ensuring broad compatibility across hardware configurations will remain a key priority for maintaining user trust and platform reliability.

The environment secretary is concerned it would put an ‘undue burden’ on consumers

Struggling utilities firm Thames Water is reportedly edging closer to public ownership after the UK government rejected a £10bn rescue package for the business.

It is understood environment secretary Emma Reynolds wrote to water regulator Ofwat on Monday, saying the current terms would put an “undue burden” on consumers.

Last year, a group of Thames Water creditors put forward a deal for the struggling supplier, pledging an extra £1bn in investment and plans to write off around a third of the firm’s near-£20bn debt pile.

Thames Water covers a large area of London and the Thames Valley as well as Oxfordshire, Berkshire, Wiltshire and Gloucestershire, and has some 16 million customers.

The company slumped to a £1.65bn annual loss in July. It was also handed £122.7m fine last year – the largest ever issued by Ofwat – for failing to comply with rules around sewage spills and shareholder payouts.

According to the Times, which first reported the news, the latest deal would have spared creditors London & Valley performance penalties for four years in exchange for higher investment levels.

But a government spokesperson said the current offer “does not do enough to protect consumers or the environment”.

Meanwhile, it is understood that Thames Water and its lenders believe a market-led solution would be better for the business.

If Ofwat does not approve a rescue plan for Thames Water – or its creditors withdraw – it could be placed in a special administration regime, a form of temporary renationalisation.

Ms Reynolds is due to explain her decision to ministers later on Tuesday.

A spokesperson for Thames Water said: “We remain of the view that a market-led solution is the best way to secure the long-term stability needed to continue improving performance and advancing our turnaround plan, for the benefit of customers, the environment and our stakeholders.

“Our priorities remain on providing safe, resilient services for customers, supporting our colleagues and working closely with suppliers, government and regulators.”

If the company does collapse, households will still have drinking water and sewerage services.

“We are reviewing the letter from the Secretary of State and considering her views on the current proposal,” a spokesperson for Ofwat said.

“Ofwat’s board has not made a decision on the proposal. We continue to engage with London & Valley Water and are reviewing their plans carefully to assess whether they deliver a turnaround in the company’s operational performance and strengthen its financial resilience to the benefit of customers and the environment.”

The US–China AI performance gap has effectively closed at the frontier level. As of March 2026, the top US model leads the top Chinese model by just 39 Arena points, or 2.7%, on the Arena Leaderboard — a community-driven benchmark widely regarded as a reliable real-world proxy for model quality. That near-parity is what’s forcing traders to look beyond raw benchmarks.

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Traders analyzing the divergence between US and Chinese AI models focus on various indicators to assess the competitive landscape. Key factors include technological advancements, research breakthroughs, and patent registrations, which signal the strength and innovation capacity of each country’s AI sector. Traders monitor official announcements, government policies, and funding initiatives that influence AI development and deployment, providing insights into future growth potential.

Market sentiment and investor confidence also play a significant role. When one country demonstrates rapid progress or introduces groundbreaking models, it can sway investment flows and impact stock prices of related tech firms. Traders use sentiment analysis tools alongside news feeds to gauge public and institutional perception, helping to predict short-term market movements driven by AI model developments.

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The Core Framework: It’s No Longer Just About Capability

The old question — who has the smartest AI? — has given way to a more nuanced one that traders actually care about: who derives the most economic value from AI?

The US–China AI performance gap has effectively closed at the frontier level. As of March 2026, the top US model leads the top Chinese model by just 39 Arena points, or 2.7%, on the Arena Leaderboard — a community-driven benchmark widely regarded as a reliable real-world proxy for model quality. That near-parity is what’s forcing traders to look beyond raw benchmarks.

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Key Dimensions Traders Are Watching

1. The Cost-Performance Trade-off

This is arguably the most market-moving variable. Chinese AI is finding strong product-market fit by offering roughly 80% of the performance at 10% of the cost of American alternatives. While US companies compete for the high-end enterprise market, Chinese models are quietly becoming the infrastructure for cost-sensitive markets in Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America.

Fidelity International’s Chief Equity Investment Officer has noted that Chinese AI models have demonstrated steady performance advancements while requiring significantly lower R&D investments compared to US counterparts — suggesting consumers and businesses could access superior products and services at lower costs, with positive knock-on effects for the broader economy.

2. The Efficiency Paradox & Chip War Dynamics

A critical component of the divergence is what analysts call the “efficiency paradox.” While the US creates theoretically more capable models, their operational costs remain prohibitively high for many everyday applications. China’s focus on smaller, optimized models allows inference to happen on consumer devices or significantly cheaper servers.

This constraint has been caused by the semiconductor trade war. With Washington restricting the export of the most advanced Nvidia H200 chips, Chinese developers have had no choice but to write more efficient code, inadvertently cultivating a software ecosystem that is remarkably resilient.

Huawei expects AI chip revenue to reach roughly $12 billion in 2026, up from $7.5 billion in 2025. Nvidia’s share of the Chinese AI accelerator market has effectively collapsed to zero — a development that Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang has described as a “horrible outcome” for the United States.

3. Deployment Scale vs. Frontier Innovation

Traders are increasingly distinguishing between who builds the best models and who deploys AI most broadly. China leads in implementation scale — with 67% manufacturing AI adoption — while the US dominates enterprise software, with 71% of Fortune 500 companies using AI. The US controls 67% of the commercial LLM market with superior benchmark performance, but China dominates 67% of edge AI chip manufacturing.

China has adopted a three-pronged structure of sectoral investment in core industries, reliable open-source platforms, and in-depth AI integration across the economy. The underlying theory is that AI models tailored to specific commercial demands will deliver meaningful economic benefits sooner than frontier models.

4. The Long-Term Gap Question

This is where analyst opinion diverges sharply — and where the trade is most contested. Some analysts argue we may be at “peak relative Chinese AI capability” versus the US. Portfolio manager Richard Clode of Janus Henderson told CNBC: “I do suspect we will start seeing a divergence as that superior US AI infrastructure starts iterating those models and makes them more capable over time in years to come.”

Meanwhile, Google DeepMind’s CEO indicated Chinese models are closer to the technological frontier than many observers believed a year or two ago, citing rapid progress from both established tech giants and newer AI laboratories. Export controls still constrain China’s access to top-tier chips, and longer-term divergence may emerge as US infrastructure advantages compound.

5. Market Shock Sensitivity

DeepSeek-R1 was arguably the most consequential single model release of 2025. Its strong performance relative to higher-cost US systems temporarily erased over one trillion dollars in US technology stock market value — a real-world measure of how seriously financial markets now take Chinese AI capabilities.

The divergence traders are pricing is no longer a simple US-leads/China-trails narrative. It’s a more complex split: US dominates frontier capability and enterprise software revenue; China leads on cost efficiency, deployment scale, and emerging market penetration. The bet being made is whether the efficiency-first approach generates more near-term economic value than the capability-first one — and whether chip constraints will eventually widen the frontier gap again, or whether China’s ASIC pivot neutralizes that risk.

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