The UK government is preparing to water down its electric vehicle sales targets. Under the existing zero emission vehicles (ZEV) mandate, 80% of all new cars sold in Britain needed to be electric vehicles (EVs) by 2030.
Following sustained lobbying from car manufacturers and trade unions, that figure could be revised down to somewhere between 50% and 70%.
While this shift may be described as a pragmatic response to market realities, the rationale for altering EV targets deserves closer scrutiny. There are four key reasons EV targets shouldn’t be weakened.
1. Risk of repeating the industry’s past mistakes
Lobbying tends to make immediate, tangible costs (the £10 billion in discounts, potential job losses) feel more urgent than long-term benefits like minimising climate impacts. But the lobby may overstate these costs.
This framing is not always ideal. The US automobile industry lobbied for decades against tightening Corporate Average Fuel Economy (Cafe) standards meant to improve fuel efficiency, successfully keeping them weak through to the 2000s. The industry argued that consumers didn’t want fuel-efficient cars and that tighter standards would cost jobs.
As a result, US car manufacturers, such as GM and Chrysler, became dependent on fuel inefficient trucks and SUVs for profit margins. Those companies were left exposed when oil prices spiked in 2008 during the financial crisis and required government bailouts.
At the same time, Japanese manufacturers who had developed fuel-efficient vehicles under their own domestic constraints (including the 1973 oil crisis and increasing fuel prices) captured a large market share in the US and globally.
While lobbying protected American autoworkers in the short-term, it contributed to the very crisis that subsequently threatened their jobs.
When unions join manufacturers in lobbying, it becomes very difficult for politicians to not listen. The jobs argument could make it hard for the government to hold firm on its targets.
2. Uncertainty can slow investment
If targets keep shifting every few years, uncertainty can slow the transition as businesses and consumers lose confidence in the policy. This can lead to the self-fulfilling prophecy problem, which results in reduced investment in the sector and further stalling.
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3. Jobs need long-term protection
The effect of the EV transition on automotive jobs is more nuanced than lobbying might suggest.
The transition will not reduce the overall scale of vehicle manufacturing. Assembly plants, logistics networks, body shops and much of the broader supply chain will continue to exist.
New employment opportunities from battery cell production, charging infrastructure installation and maintenance, grid upgrades and EV software engineering will also increase. Investments in initiatives such as gigafactories that mass produce EV batteries have already created new jobs.
However, workers making specific internal combustion engine components, such as exhausts, gearboxes, fuel injection systems and other parts that EVs do not use, face real displacement risk. That deserves serious attention to ensure a just transition – that is, the process of moving to a low-carbon society that is green, sustainable and socially inclusive.
To protect these jobs, the government and manufacturers need to fund retraining, invest in future skills and support workers through this phase of change. In Germany, unions have negotiated transition funds for workers in legacy auto parts.
Policies aimed at increasing demand for EVs, such as creating a more extensive and reasonably priced charging infrastructure, can give manufacturers economies of scale, bringing prices of EVs down over time. And the positive feedback loop can further accelerate demand and create new employment.
4. Fear of losing UK export edge
Nearly eight of the ten cars produced in the UK are exported to 140 countries. If UK manufacturers and workers fall behind on EV capability because of the slowdown in momentum, they risk losing export markets to competitors.
China now produces highly competitive EVs at scale, and European manufacturers are increasingly producing efficient, long-range EVs. To maintain a competitive advantage, car makers in Britain need to continue investing in skilled workers specialising in technologies such as batteries.
British car manufacturers are asking the government to rethink the ZEV mandate because EV residual values have been volatile. This has made the used market uncertain and dampened enthusiasm for new purchases. Plus, the charging network remains unreliable and EV buyers still suffer from range anxiety (concerns that EVs don’t go far enough on a single charge).
But if paired with solid investment, these are problems that a well-supported mandate could help solve. A target reduction from 80% to 50% or 60% takes pressure off the government and manufacturers to address those issues. And delaying the green transport transition just moves costs from firms and their shareholders to workers and the public.
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