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When Will Bitcoin’s (BTC) Bear Market End? 4 AIs Predict the Turning Point

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When Will Bitcoin's (BTC) Bear Market End? 4 AIs Predict the Turning Point


“Right now, we are in the confusion phase,” ChatGPT claimed.

Bitcoin (BTC) has been in an evident downtrend over the past few months, which intensified at the start of February. This caused analysts and market observers to claim that the asset has entered a bear market.

Investors are now perhaps curious to find out when that period will be over, so we consulted four of the most popular AI-powered chatbots to give their take on the matter.

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Brace for Several More Months

According to ChatGPT, BTC is likely in the middle-to-late stage of the bear phase rather than the beginning. However, it suggested that there is a strong possibility for a final shakeout before entering a slow accumulation stage.

The chatbot pointed out that in previous cases, Bitcoin’s bear market has rarely ended dramatically, and its conclusion looked “quiet and uninteresting.”

“Right now, we are in the confusion phase – which historically is closer to the end than the beginning,” ChatGPT added.

Perplexity predicted that the bear phase could end in the second quarter of the year, assuming that the negative sentiment among investors lately has marked the bottom zone. Earlier this month, the popular Fear & Greed Index plummeted to “Extreme Fear” territory of 6, a level last observed in August 2019.

This reflects the panic across market participants following the recent decline; however, it may also be interpreted as a buying opportunity. After all, renowned investors and prominent figures, including Warren Buffett, have long advised that investors should step in when prices are collapsing and exit the ecosystem when “Greed” dominates.

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According to Perplexity, the potential end of the bear market in Q2 might be followed by consolidation and a renewed bull run towards the end of 2026. It went even further, forecasting that BTC’s valuation could hit a new all-time high of around $150,000 before New Year’s Eve.

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A Lot More Pain?

Grok, the chatbot integrated into the social media platform X, outlined a more pessimistic viewpoint. It claimed that the bears will remain in charge until the end of the year, adding that there might be a further crash to as low as $55,000. The chatbot warned that, in the event of a global geopolitical event, such as a major war, the price could tumble further than the depicted level.

Google’s Gemini presented a similar scenario. It expects subdued performance until late 2026 as the market prepares for the 2027-2028 run toward new peaks.

“If the current cycle follows the ‘four-year’ script, the absolute capitulation point (the ‘true bottom’) may not arrive until late 2026, especially around October or November,” it stated.

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SEC Charges Donald Basile in $16M Fraud Case Involving ‘Insured’ Token

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Crypto Breaking News

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filed a civil complaint in the Eastern District of New York accusing crypto executive Donald Basile and two entities he controlled of raising about $16 million from investors through a scheme tied to a purportedly insured crypto token, Bitcoin Latinum. The regulator says Basile conducted the offering through Monsoon Blockchain Corp. and GIBF GP Inc. during 2021, using Simple Agreements for Future Tokens that promised future delivery of the token.

Regulators allege that hundreds of investors were told Bitcoin Latinum was insured and asset-backed. The complaint, supported by reporting from The Wall Street Journal, asserts no insurance carrier ever provided coverage or any proof of the claimed backing. The SEC has moved to unwind the transactions and hold Basile accountable for what it calls false representations about the asset and its security backing. According to The Wall Street Journal.

The case arrives amid ongoing questions about crypto enforcement priorities in a landscape where regulators have signaled a shift in approach. Cointelegraph notes that actions like this stand out as relatively few enforcement efforts under the Trump-era regulatory posture, which some observers described as more crypto-friendly compared with earlier administrations. The SEC has framed its current stance as a move away from “regulation by enforcement” toward targeting fraud, market manipulation and serious abuses of trust, even as it pursues specific securities-related allegations in the crypto space.

Key takeaways

  • The SEC alleges Donald Basile and two affiliated entities raised about $16 million through SAFTs tied to Bitcoin Latinum, with the tokens promised to be delivered in the future.
  • Investors were told the asset was insured and backed, but regulators say no insurance coverage or credible backing proof was ever provided.
  • Funds reportedly flowed to personal use, including real estate purchases, credit-card payments and the acquisition of a $160,000 horse, according to the SEC’s allegations.
  • The agency is seeking permanent injunctions, disgorgement with interest, civil penalties and an officer-and-director ban for Basile, while Bitcoin Latinum’s own site currently returns a 404 error.

Allegations and the mechanics of the offering

The SEC’s complaint details a scheme in which Basile, working through Monsoon Blockchain Corp. and GIBF GP Inc., marketed Bitcoin Latinum as a protected asset available through SAFTs. The agreements purported to secure future delivery of the token to investors who contributed capital in the belief that their investment would be backed by insurance and real-world value. The complaint implies that the core premise—that an insurer provided coverage or verifiable backing—was never realized, according to The Wall Street Journal’s reporting on the filings.

From 2021’s March to December window, the actions allegedly misrepresented the token’s risk profile and protection to investors. The SEC’s filing seeks to unwind the arrangements and recover alleged ill-gotten gains with interest, alongside civil penalties. The agency also seeks to bar Basile from participation in future securities offerings, underscoring its broader objective of deterring misrepresentation in crypto fundraising activities.

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Regulatory posture and the broader backdrop

The SEC’s broader enforcement narrative has been evolving. In a week when the agency criticized past crypto cases for not delivering direct investor benefits, officials highlighted the importance of meaningful protections rather than simply expanding enforcement volume. Since fiscal 2022, the SEC has reported bringing 95 actions and collecting about $2.3 billion in penalties for “book-and-record” violations, even as it acknowledged that several cases involving crypto registration and dealer definitions did not clearly demonstrate investor harm.

Under Chair Paul Atkins, appointed in 2025, the SEC has signaled a reorientation toward prioritizing fraud, market manipulation and trust abuses over broad, volume-based enforcement. While the Bitcoin Latinum case is not framed as a back-to-basics reset, it sits within a climate in which the agency asserts it is focusing resources on cases with demonstrable harms to investors and systemic risk, rather than pursuing actions solely to expand case counts.

The status of Bitcoin Latinum itself adds another layer to the story. The project’s official site has since returned a 404 error, complicating attempts to verify project details or investor claims in real time. This confluence of regulatory action and an unclear project footprint underscores the attention regulators are paying to token projects that market themselves as insured or asset-backed, and the importance for investors to demand verifiable backing and regulatory clarity before participating in token offerings.

For readers watching the sector, the Basile case signals a continued emphasis on disclosure, truth-in-advertising and the risk of misrepresentation in crypto fundraising. It also highlights the tension between innovation in tokenized instruments and the safeguards required to protect retail investors, particularly in structures that resemble securities while operating in a largely decentralized, global market. The evolving stance toward enforcement, investor protection and the meaning of “insurance” or “backing” in crypto assets will likely shape the regulatory dialogue in the months ahead.

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What remains uncertain is how aggressively the SEC will pursue similar claims involving SAFT-like structures and whether more details about Bitcoin Latinum’s purported insurer, if any existed, will surface through the litigation process. Investors and builders will be watching for how the court addresses disgorgement calculations, potential penalties, and any implications for future token offerings that blend securities-like promises with decentralized technology.

As the case progresses, market participants will be keenly watching for interim rulings on injunctive relief and any early signals about how the court may interpret the line between investment contracts and digital assets marketed as insured or asset-backed. The next chapter will likely test how regulators differentiate genuine investor protections from overbroad or misapplied securities theories in a rapidly evolving crypto landscape.

Readers should stay tuned for updates on the legal proceedings and any related statements from the SEC about its enforcement priorities, as well as for any new information regarding Bitcoin Latinum’s status, project disclosures, and potential investor recourse.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Bitcoin Price Prediction: Hormuz, Iran War, Oil Price, Metals, and Stocks vs Crypto

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Bitcoin price briefly cracked $78,000 yesterday, a level untouched since early February, before pulling back and stabilizing. What's next?

Bitcoin price briefly cracked $78,000 yesterday, a level untouched since early February, before pulling back and stabilizing. The catalyst is a two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire that collapsed crude prices and triggered $427 million in short liquidations, compressing the Strait of Hormuz risk premium that had been suffocating risk assets for months.

Crypto-linked equities outran Bitcoin itself in the recovery. Coinbase, Robinhood, and Strategy each surged at least 25% through Friday’s close, while BTC posted just under 7% gains over the same five trading days. It’s strong in isolation, modest by comparison.

Citi analyst Alex Saunders flagged the dynamic explicitly: “Crypto-equity correlations have strengthened following a recent dip,” with stocks are now pulling crypto up with them.

Meanwhile, Tether resumed BTC accumulation, blockchain data from Arkham Intelligence confirms 951 BTC moved to a wallet labeled “Tether: BTC Reserve,” adding a quiet but significant buy.

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Can Bitcoin Price Break $80,000 Before Ceasefire Expiration?

Having already reclaimed the 50-day EMA during the ceasefire-driven relief rally, Bitcoin trading volume spiked on the short squeeze, with $6 billion in leveraged shorts remaining clustered between $72,200 and $73,500, with peak density around $72,500. That zone has already been breached; those liquidations fueled the current leg.

The technical setup now pits $75,000–$80,000 resistance against $62,000 support at the bottom of the two-month consolidation range.

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Bitcoin price briefly cracked $78,000 yesterday, a level untouched since early February, before pulling back and stabilizing. What's next?
BTC USD, TradingView

If the ceasefire holds, Fed rate-cut expectations could firm up on lower oil/inflation data, and spot demand then can push BTC through $80,000. Forecast models average $78,600 with a ceiling near $82,500.

Whale data adds a nuanced wrinkle. For only the second time in 2026, wallets holding more than 10,000 BTC recorded net inflows, suggesting organic accumulation. Some analysts, including Canary Capital’s Steve McClurg, argue 2026 is still the “bear leg” of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, which historically a period of 60–80% drawdowns from peaks.

Discover: The best crypto to diversify your portfolio with

Bitcoin Hyper Targets Early-Mover Upside as BTC Waits for Confirmation

Bitcoin at $76,000 is recovery territory, not discovery territory. From the current market cap, a 2x requires roughly $3 trillion in new capital. That math is why some traders running the numbers are rotating a portion of exposure earlier on the risk curve, specifically toward infrastructure plays being built on top of Bitcoin itself.

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Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) is positioning as the first Bitcoin Layer 2 with Solana Virtual Machine (SVM) integration, combining Bitcoin’s security with smart contract execution that the project claims outpaces Solana on latency.

The pitch targets Bitcoin’s three structural weaknesses: slow transactions, high fees, and zero programmability. The presale has raised $32 million at a current token price of $0.0136, with staking active at a high APY for early participants.

Features include a Decentralized Canonical Bridge for BTC transfers and low-cost, high-speed transaction execution designed to unlock DeFi on the Bitcoin network.

Research Bitcoin Hyper here.

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Spot Bitcoin ETFs Attract $1B in Weekly Inflows as Risk Appetite Returns

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Spot Bitcoin ETFs Attract $1B in Weekly Inflows as Risk Appetite Returns

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded nearly $1 billion in net inflows over the past week, marking their strongest performance in more than three months as market sentiment shifts toward risk assets.

Data from SoSoValue shows that spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs attracted $996 muillion in total net inflows last week, the highest weekly intake since early January, when inflows reached about $1.4 billion.

Friday saw $663.9 million in inflows, the strongest single-day performance of the week. Earlier gains included $411.5 million on Tuesday and $186 million on Wednesday, followed by a more modest $26 million on Thursday. The period began with a $291 million outflow on Monday.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs see nearly $1 billion in weekly gains. Source: SoSoValue

Total net assets across spot Bitcoin ETFs climbed above $101 billion by Friday, alongside a sharp increase in trading activity, with daily volumes nearing $4.8 billion.

Related: Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin fund overtakes WisdomTree after 6 trading days

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Markets price in de-escalation

According to analysts at Bitunix, markets are increasingly pricing in how geopolitical tensions evolve rather than whether they persist. Signs of de-escalation, particularly around US–Iran relations, have reduced extreme risk scenarios, weakening demand for traditional safe havens like the US dollar, they said.

The analysts added that the Federal Reserve is still taking a cautious approach, and expectations for rate cuts remain limited. At the same time, concerns about US debt demand and high long-term yields are starting to weaken confidence in traditional “risk-free” assets. This has contributed to additional pressure on the dollar, further supporting flows into alternative assets, including Bitcoin.

“In crypto market structure, BTC is currently in a classic liquidity redistribution phase,” they wrote, adding that Bitcoin continues to trade in a defined range, with resistance above $75,000 and support forming near $72,000. “Liquidation heatmaps suggest the market is building a new equilibrium range rather than extending a directional trend,” they said.

Related: Three things Bitcoin must do to hold highs above $76K: Analysts

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Bitcoin surges as Strait of Hormuz reopens

On Friday, Iran’s foreign minister announced that the Strait of Hormuz has been reopened to commercial shipping for the duration of the current ceasefire, a move quickly confirmed by US President Donald Trump. The decision eased immediate fears of supply disruption in one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes, triggering swift reactions across global markets.

Bitcoin surged above $77,000 following the news, while Brent crude fell roughly 10% to around $85 per barrel.

Magazine: Solana vs Ethereum ETFs, Facebook’s influence on Bitwise — Hunter Horsley